Matt Harmon's 2015 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Rankings
By: Matt Harmon
April 14, 2015
April 14, 2015
Another deep wide receiver class includes a number of talented prospects, such as USC's Nelson Agholor (Kirby Lee - USA Today Sports)
This draft season was a little different for me than last year’s. Through my work with Optimum Scouting, and my own personal endeavors, I got the chance to watch plenty of prospects. However, the only group I feel as if I fully evaluated was the wide receiver position. To be honest, it’s the only spot I had the time and passion to dive in to this go-round. With Reception Perception being my primary focus that is not likely to change in future years.
My plan in the draft seasons to come will be to have my receiver rankings sorted by typological categories that I develop after finishing this year’s worth of Reception Perception charting. For now, here are the players from the 2015 NFL Draft that I’ve put through full evaluations. As always, my rankings are based purely on the basis of these players’ on-field talent.
Disclaimers:
Tier 1: future high-end NFL starters
1) Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
After much deliberation, especially in light of the disparity between their workout numbers, I decided to keep Dorial Green-Beckham as my number-one receiver prospect over Kevin White. It was close. However, the upside of Green-Beckham is just too tempting to slide him down the list. While I see some of the mistakes and rawness in his game, I do not feel those are so deadly when comparing him to his peers, instead of the high-end comparisons he draws.
The areas Dorial Green-Beckham needs to improve are obvious. His release techniques are largely a mess, and that was reflected in his 11.1% SRVC against press from his Reception Perception sample. Despite his big frame, he cannot free himself from the line of scrimmage, due to an inability to sell his route intentions, and his use of the dreaded “hop”. If he does not iron those issues out, he will not be able to maximize his potential, and will end up an easy target for NFL corners. Green-Beckham’s effort and desire also comes and goes on film, but you could also say that about a number of great NFL wide receivers.
All that being said, Dorial Green-Beckham is not nearly as flawed as some would lead you to believe. His 2013 tape showed me everything I’d need to see from a top wide receiver prospect. He certainly runs more routes than given credit for, and that was apparent in his Reception Perception study. Even with inconsistent route running technique, he effortlessly separates from coverage. Those same movement skills translate to when he has the ball in his hands. If he is put in the right role, Green-Beckham will amass up a ton of yards after the catch in the NFL. It would certainly help if he had some better route and technical skills, but even without them, there is nothing he cannot do on the football field.
Dorial Green-Beckham will not go off the board first among the wide receivers, and I get that. If I were in a General Manager’s seat, I’d make the same call. Those decision-makers have the information needed to factor in the risk of his off-field transgressions and year away from football. I do not, and that’s why he remains in my top spot as a prospect. Should the past manage to not rear its ugly head—always a dicey bet—nothing will hold this player back from being one of the best at his position.
Trump card: Freakish physical ability and fluidity for his size.
Pro comparison: Brandon Marshall mixed with some Demaryius Thomas.
Dorial Green-Beckham’s Reception Perception prospect profile
2) Kevin White, West Virginia
From the first live action I saw this season of Kevin White, I knew this was my kind of receiver. Much like a chef who can whip up multiple meals without much notice, I love a receiver who can win in any way you ask. We all know White owns contested catches, and he really is incredibly proficient in this area. White has the timing and body control aspect down pat. His hands are never too early, and he always attains the leverage when throwing them up. White mastered the perfect shape in which to bring his hands up together early this season, and never let the skill fade. He’s comfortable being in the air, and can alter his form however needed to make sure he comes down with the ball. Almost just as impressive is his ability with the ball in his hands. White is one of the best pure power players to come out of the draft, at the receiver position, in awhile. He’s an animal after the catch, and runs with such ferocity that he commands gang tackles at a strikingly high rate. He does not lack for fluidity or athletic ability in space. That versatility makes him extremely hard to predict when he’s running downhill at a defender.
While Kevin White did not get to run many diverse routes in college, he shows everything you need to believe he can add to his repertoire in the NFL. His quickness in and out breaks, and ability to change directions should translate well to being asked to run more patterns on the tree. He can make the hard cuts, and chops, and that will help him win on routes that ask him to break back to the quarterback, or into the middle of the field. Look for him to continue to advance his route technique, and become a true technician within the first few years of his career—much like the first player in his comparison did. White releases well from the line of scrimmage, and unlike most of his peers, he does so with physicality and hand use. That’s what separates White from many in this class, his physical play in the air game. He uses an aggressive “arm over” move to break back on curl routes, and will post up a defender if he doesn’t break freely open. This will help him fill multiple roles as a receiver. White’s excellent NFL combine reflected what always looked like fine play speed. With his contested catch prowess, and play in traffic, White will bring true vertical ability to his offense. Kevin White checks every box you’re looking for in a prospect, and given Dorial Green-Beckham’s off the field concerns, I’d take him off the board first if I were a GM, regardless of my quarterback or offensive system. Wherever White goes, he will fit in just wonderfully.
Trump card: He’s both an air and ground receiving game dominator.
Pro comparison: Jordy Nelson with an extra shot of Julio Jones’ physical gifts.
Kevin White’s Reception Perception prospect profile
3) Amari Cooper, Alabama
If you prefer refinement, you will love Amari Cooper. While nearly all college receivers are projects in the technical side of the game, the former Alabama pass catcher may be the exception. Already a silky smooth route runner, Cooper is far and away the best receiver in this class at creating separation. He gets open at every level of the field, and looked in-tune with multiple quarterbacks at Alabama. Cooper looks like a ready-made player for a timing based offense. Even though he’s not a speed demon to the degree some of his lower ranked peers are, Cooper does everything at breakneck pace. Best of all, he manages to do so in a controlled fashion. He can slow down his pattern in the span of seconds, and return to top gear effortlessly. At the college level, this allowed him to run circles around defensive backs. While he may not make as many plays on deep shots in the NFL, he will certainly be able to mortgage attributes those into domination of the shorter areas of the field. Cooper should be a player who regularly gets open, and can create some extra yardage after the catch.
Despite an easily projectable skillset, Amari Cooper is not flawless. He has some trouble in contested situations, despite marginal improvement in this area from 2013 to 2014. Leaping off the ground is not his strong suit, and he does not always look comfortable with controlling his body in the air. While not afraid of traffic, Cooper does lack for the strength needed to own the moment. Those struggles will limit his ability to help his next team in the vertical game. There are also more drops littered through his tape than a player of his refinement would lead you to believe. These are not deadly flaws, and are overwhelmed by the advanced positive weapons in his arsenal. He could work in just about any offense, and be a big help to a quarterback, but his skills would be best highlighted in a system based on timing and tempo. I have little question that Amari Cooper will be a strong NFL receiver, and get off to a fast start. However, he does not have the upside of the two players listed ahead of him.
Trump card: Ability to smoothly change directions mid-route, creating separation.
Pro comparison: all the good of both Roddy White and Michael Crabtree.
Amari Cooper’s Reception Perception prospect profile
Tier 2: good starters
4) Nelson Agholor, USC
Last year, when watching prospects, Odell Beckham Jr. was one of the first players I dug into. It did not take long for me to come to the conclusion, “oh yes, this works”. Nelson Agholor is not Odell Beckham Jr., but I had a similar experience when I turned on his tape. This will be the USC receiver that breaks the mold of recent failures from that program. Agholor has some of the best quickness in this class at every level of the game. He gets off the line with ease, and corners are often overwhelmed with him in press coverage. Once into his route, he displays the ability to redirect his body, whether with his hips or by shuffling his feet, with great tempo. He can certainly dust defenders on breaks and stems. Once the catch is made, Agholor is a real star. One of the best YAC threats in the class; he uses power, quickness and drive to break tackles. There were times he’d cross the whole field before anyone even had the chance to tackle him. Despite his smaller frame, Agholor often requires multiple defenders to bring him down. He relishes in the physical side of the game.
That comfort in the clashes translates to playing the ball in the air, too. Agholor is fearless in traffic, and can win contested catches. This combined with his ability to get easy separation on breaks makes me believe he can play outside in the NFL. He had drop problems in 2013, but quickly ironed those out of his game last season. Rarely will Agholor let passes get into his frame, and has strong hands to extend and snag the ball. It was extremely encouraging to watch this player take step-by-step developments to improve throughout his junior season. By his final college games, he was a near flawless player. Nelson Agholor is already a near complete player, who may still have room to grow. One of the more underrated receivers in this draft—look for Agholor to have a solid career regardless of landing spot, and truly thrive in a high-volume role.
Trump card: Quickness and drive to change directions in routes and with the ball in his hands.
Pro comparison: Golden Tate’s fearless attitude running after the catch, and contested situations, mixed with Greg Jennings’ precision.
5) DeVante Parker, Louisville
DeVante Parker has been one of the tougher evaluations for me this draft season. Some of the attributes with this player are just intoxicating, but there are some troubling moments that go without discussion by his biggest supporters. In my first visit to the RSP Film Room, both Matt Waldman and I laid out our concerns with Parker’s game (and espoused some affection for a player of the same first name you’ll find later down this list). Parker gets heralded as one of the best release technicians in this class, but it’s fair to question whether he is as developed as reputed in this area. His size and quickness paralyzed many inferior athletes that lined up across from him. Slow reactions allowed Parker to fly off the line untouched. However, he never really developed a counter punch for when a more developed cornerback did not display the same hesitation. If NFL corners don’t fall for his bread and butter move, and they likely will not, how long will it take him to readjust?
His route running needs some overhaul, despite having good potential here. While speed variance in-route can be a good thing, Parker borders on an out of control level. It would help if Parker did not fluctuate between gears so often in the same route, so that his quarterback can better rely on where he will be. This receiver also tips his routes off to those covering him. If he were more aggressive as a route runner, this would not be such a problem. At this point, Parker is unpredictable for his quarterback, but too predictable to those covering him.
All that being said, and its plenty to worry about, Parker does have very palpable upside. His strides are excellent, effortless and a real chore for defenders to keep up with. Parker can eat up cushion in a hurry and, even though he needs to add nuance to do the same in the NFL, make a play deep. Despite a wiry frame, he’s fearless in traffic and is excellent at bringing in the contested catches. His fluidity and quickness make you believe he can develop in the areas that he needs work in to become a reliable technician. It’s just going to take work. While I own some very negative views surrounding Parker, and certainly think he does not belong on Cooper and White’s level, I believe he can rise above his issues. But it will be a longer process than many think, and he may well always have inconsistencies. DeVante Parker did primarily get by with being able to out-athlete his competition in college, and he needs some time in wide receiver refinement school. Yet, there were more than enough flashes to believe he will not fade away with other members of that archetype.
Trump card: ability to eat up ground with his strides and lanky frame.
Pro comparison: both the ups and downs of Braylon Edwards (credit to Ethan Hammerman).
6) Devin Smith, Ohio State
From the moment I popped on the first Devin Smith cutup, I was intrigued. His big play ability was screaming off the screen. After I studied Smith for Reception Perception, I was hooked. Starting with the obvious, he is a master of the vertical game, and he still owns the most ridiculous deep game Reception Perception I’ve charted. While prospects like Sammie Coates and Phillip Dorrsett have speed, Smith is the one player in this class with near complete vertical ability. Meaning, he has the speed to fly, the subtleties to inch away from coverage at the last moment to separate, and can win contested catches. His ability to track the ball is second to none in this class, especially in the deep game. When Devin Smith walks into an NFL team’s building, he will already bring true vertical artistry, and be an immediate deep threat. That is enough of a trump card for him to get first round consideration.
However, I do not feel Smith is a limited player, not even close. He’s a physical receiver, and does not get bumped off of his patterns, or redirected. He sets the tone of the battle nine times out of 10. Smith displays some good release technique, and is so quick of the snap, he usually flies right into his route regardless. He has strong hands, and rarely drops a pass. Despite limited viewings, he showed some good route running capabilities on more than just fly patterns. He runs a good slant route, and can deceive corners as to where he intends to take his body. Smith has the quickness, and lower body explosion to separate in the short game, and he uses it when given the chances.
Frankly, a close comb reveals that this player has everything he’ll need to become a complete receiver in the NFL. I don’t really care if his school winning a National Championship, or a quarterback change, brought so much attention to Devin Smith. In no way does that mean he did not deserve it all along.
Trump card: already mastered one section of the field; a true deep game artist. He has the most discernable and certain trump card of this class.
Pro comparison: the offspring of a T.Y. Hilton and DeAndre Hopkins marriage.
Devin Smith’s Reception Perception prospect profile
7) Tre McBride, William and Mary
The under-the-radar tag sure did not apply to Tre McBride for very long. He helped himself with a tremendous combine, but McBride was impressing evaluators long before that. Obviously, this player comes from a small, unheralded program. Yet, he checks every box scouts should look for when watching a player from the low-levels. He frequently looked like the best player on the field, and moved better than anyone else. His ability to snare off-target passes was frequently on display, since he played with such a poor and erratic quarterback. McBride adjusts well to passes in the air, and has no fear leaving his feet or playing in contested situations.
This is a smooth operator, through and through. Not many receivers in this class sink their hips, and execute the dips better than McBride. He also has great speed and burst to create ample separation at the break points and stems of his routes. He’s just as fluid and brilliant with the ball in his hands. For a small school player, his technique is strong. There are not many instances of him displaying a poor release, and while he was beating lower-level players, his moves are on par with his higher ranked peers. McBride will occasionally let a ball slip away if he’s trying to set himself up to run after the catch, but that is far from a death-nail to his projection. This is a player with few holes, and not nearly as raw as one would expect coming from a program like William and Mary. Much like the player he’s compared to, McBride could pay dividends as a playmaker early in his career, and evolve into a regular starter as he hones his craft.
Trump card: ability to catch passes at all angles and from wild trajectories.
Pro comparison: a more explosive Pierre Garcon (credit to Rich Hribar)
8) Breshad Perriman, UCF
The team that selects Breshad Perriman seems destined to get lambasted because they’ll be reaching for an athletic specimen. His draft stock seemed to rise to that of a first rounder in congruence with his strong pro day workout. While that usually is not a good sign, the tape always showed an impressive player. The speed and fluidity portrayed in his workout numbers is displayed on the field. In terms of big-framed receivers, who move in an effortless fashion, Perriman may be second only to Dorial Green-Beckham. He’s also a better pure power player, which (along with the jersey number and hair) makes some observers believe they are seeing a version of Kevin White-lite. When he gets the ball in open space, he can elude tacklers, or run through them. Perriman could fill a role similar to what the Broncos ask of Demaryius Thomas. UCF did not get him the ball in space enough.
Perriman has two big flaws in his game his detractors will bring up in debates about his merit; one I am more worried about than the other. While he had more than his fair share of drops, and bungles in traffic, I believe those issues can be corrected. Perriman tracks the ball, and positions himself well in contested situations, but just needs to more accurately time when he throws his hands up. He can be a bit too predictable in this regard. There are a good amount of focus drops, but those can be ironed out of a player, especially when his quarterback play is upgraded in the NFL. Perriman is also the type of player that makes his drops negligible because of the physical gifts that he’ll use to make big plays.
What concerns me more about Perriman is a lack of ability to sell his deep routes. While he displays good deception, and never tips with his head, his eyes often give away whether he intends to go short or long. His releases also give his intentions away, as he frequently uses the fatal hop move. Savvy NFL corners will be able to read that like a book, and if he fails to correct those mistakes, he will be unable to function as a regular deep threat. Perriman shows some real potential as a route runner; his head use, quickness in and out of breaks, and some of his hand fighting tells the story of a player who can develop as a technician. However, he’s yet to weave the full tale together. In the end, Perriman’s positives outweigh the negatives, and even if he never develops, he’ll end up being a deadly weapon on the simple routes. You’d be surprised how some of the best NFL wide receivers are doing just that, without anyone pointing it out.
Trump card: a frightening combination of size, speed and fluidity.
Pro comparison: all the physical gifts of Cordarrelle Patterson, just packaged much better with superior route running.
Tier 3: regular contributors with ability to jump a tier
9) Justin Hardy, ECU
I started out higher on Justin Hardy, when first beginning to break down this class, than he ended up in these rankings. The players ahead of him just consistently stood out more, and certainly have superior upside. Now, that should not take away from what a solid receiver Hardy is. This is a tough player, with extremely reliable hands. Despite being a smaller receiver, Hardy can make plays outside of his frame, and has big vice grip hands to reel in the ball. When he gets his mitts on the football, its not going anywhere. There weren’t many issues with playing in traffic, and he does not get bumped off his routes.
Hardy’s releases were good, albeit not perfect, but his route running was quite impressive. He breaks well at the stems, and chops when he needs to. While he doesn’t have great speed, Hardy’s quickness is more than good enough to earn separation in the short to intermediate areas. Much like the player he’s compared to, Hardy just finds ways to get open and should be adept at freeing from multiple brands of coverage. His lack of vertical ability, and less than stellar play after the catch, certainly limit his ceiling. However, if I ran a pass heavy team, especially one with a fair amount of variance, I’d feel very good about bringing in Hardy to provide a stabilizing force. I’m open to the idea of some of the players ranked behind him having better, or at least more productive, NFL careers, but I just feel so comfortable with Hardy’s professional projection.
Trump card: overall precision.
Pro comparison: A less athletic Stevie Johnson.
10) Devante Davis, UNLV
One of the players I gravitated to early in the process, if you follow me on twitter yore familiar with my pounding the table for Devante Davis. The big receiver carries a rocked out 6’3 and 223 pound frame, and was mighty productive in 2013. Injuries derailed his senior season, and a chance to shine at the Senior Bowl, which is why he’s not on the draft community radar. As such, injuries are a concern, but Davis also needs work in areas of on-field play. His release technique needs to be crafted in manner where he can earn consistent leverage right away. He also needs to add more variety to his route running in general.
Luckily, he can be taught those aspects of the position. What is often not teachable is the innate ability to position the body in traffic, and come down with a contested catch. This is Davis’ biggest strength. Time and time again in college, Davis would win 50/50 balls with defenders draped all over him. Nothing fazed him, and unlike some of his peers ranked above him, Davis knows how to use his big frame. Davis is really an unquestionable prospect when the ball is in the air. There are some criticisms about Davis as a route running technician, and as a ball carrier, as some believe he’s too stiff to succeed in these areas. But he can improve in both departments with some teaching. He has the skills and traits to separate, with a little homework. Davis rarely got the chance to showcase his YAC skills, as his team’s quarterbacks just got him the ball on vertical based routes, and rarely led him into space. The reps he did get in space were almost never to his favor. Davis is not much more raw as a route runner than other top prospects, and has displayed the necessary quickness, and spatial awareness at break points, to believe he can add more to his arsenal. All in all, Davis’ strengths are NFL ready, and his weaknesses are ones that most prospects must tighten up before coming into the league. Much like a “Kelvin Benjamin-lite”, Davis can make an early impact based solely on his ability to win the ball in the air on difficult throws. In time, I believe he can grow into a full time player, and carries the profile of a future passing game leader. The highs far outweigh potential lows with this player, and he’s destined to be the steal of the wide receiver draft class.
Trump card: absolutely dominant at the catch point and playing the ball in the air.
Pro comparison: utilization plan of Kelvin Benjamin, but with an Alshon Jeffery ceiling.
My plan in the draft seasons to come will be to have my receiver rankings sorted by typological categories that I develop after finishing this year’s worth of Reception Perception charting. For now, here are the players from the 2015 NFL Draft that I’ve put through full evaluations. As always, my rankings are based purely on the basis of these players’ on-field talent.
Disclaimers:
- My rankings are mostly based on film, and any Reception Perception work I’ve done on the player (which is not all). Athletic testing certainly factors in, and can alter the picture.
- If you are not familiar with my use of "trump cards", they are not just the player's best attributes. They have to be a part of their game (physical, technical, intangible, or a combination) that will give them a supreme advantage over the competition. Even if you manage to shut a receiver down three times, they can unleash their trump card on the fourth rep and there will be little you can do to stop them. Not every player has one.
- One last note, you will not find Devin Funchess anywhere on this list. At this point, I do not consider him an outside wide receiver in any capacity in the NFL. To be fair to his skills, and how I view him, I chose not to group him with these players. He’s far too different of an evaluation.
Tier 1: future high-end NFL starters
1) Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
After much deliberation, especially in light of the disparity between their workout numbers, I decided to keep Dorial Green-Beckham as my number-one receiver prospect over Kevin White. It was close. However, the upside of Green-Beckham is just too tempting to slide him down the list. While I see some of the mistakes and rawness in his game, I do not feel those are so deadly when comparing him to his peers, instead of the high-end comparisons he draws.
The areas Dorial Green-Beckham needs to improve are obvious. His release techniques are largely a mess, and that was reflected in his 11.1% SRVC against press from his Reception Perception sample. Despite his big frame, he cannot free himself from the line of scrimmage, due to an inability to sell his route intentions, and his use of the dreaded “hop”. If he does not iron those issues out, he will not be able to maximize his potential, and will end up an easy target for NFL corners. Green-Beckham’s effort and desire also comes and goes on film, but you could also say that about a number of great NFL wide receivers.
All that being said, Dorial Green-Beckham is not nearly as flawed as some would lead you to believe. His 2013 tape showed me everything I’d need to see from a top wide receiver prospect. He certainly runs more routes than given credit for, and that was apparent in his Reception Perception study. Even with inconsistent route running technique, he effortlessly separates from coverage. Those same movement skills translate to when he has the ball in his hands. If he is put in the right role, Green-Beckham will amass up a ton of yards after the catch in the NFL. It would certainly help if he had some better route and technical skills, but even without them, there is nothing he cannot do on the football field.
Dorial Green-Beckham will not go off the board first among the wide receivers, and I get that. If I were in a General Manager’s seat, I’d make the same call. Those decision-makers have the information needed to factor in the risk of his off-field transgressions and year away from football. I do not, and that’s why he remains in my top spot as a prospect. Should the past manage to not rear its ugly head—always a dicey bet—nothing will hold this player back from being one of the best at his position.
Trump card: Freakish physical ability and fluidity for his size.
Pro comparison: Brandon Marshall mixed with some Demaryius Thomas.
Dorial Green-Beckham’s Reception Perception prospect profile
2) Kevin White, West Virginia
From the first live action I saw this season of Kevin White, I knew this was my kind of receiver. Much like a chef who can whip up multiple meals without much notice, I love a receiver who can win in any way you ask. We all know White owns contested catches, and he really is incredibly proficient in this area. White has the timing and body control aspect down pat. His hands are never too early, and he always attains the leverage when throwing them up. White mastered the perfect shape in which to bring his hands up together early this season, and never let the skill fade. He’s comfortable being in the air, and can alter his form however needed to make sure he comes down with the ball. Almost just as impressive is his ability with the ball in his hands. White is one of the best pure power players to come out of the draft, at the receiver position, in awhile. He’s an animal after the catch, and runs with such ferocity that he commands gang tackles at a strikingly high rate. He does not lack for fluidity or athletic ability in space. That versatility makes him extremely hard to predict when he’s running downhill at a defender.
While Kevin White did not get to run many diverse routes in college, he shows everything you need to believe he can add to his repertoire in the NFL. His quickness in and out breaks, and ability to change directions should translate well to being asked to run more patterns on the tree. He can make the hard cuts, and chops, and that will help him win on routes that ask him to break back to the quarterback, or into the middle of the field. Look for him to continue to advance his route technique, and become a true technician within the first few years of his career—much like the first player in his comparison did. White releases well from the line of scrimmage, and unlike most of his peers, he does so with physicality and hand use. That’s what separates White from many in this class, his physical play in the air game. He uses an aggressive “arm over” move to break back on curl routes, and will post up a defender if he doesn’t break freely open. This will help him fill multiple roles as a receiver. White’s excellent NFL combine reflected what always looked like fine play speed. With his contested catch prowess, and play in traffic, White will bring true vertical ability to his offense. Kevin White checks every box you’re looking for in a prospect, and given Dorial Green-Beckham’s off the field concerns, I’d take him off the board first if I were a GM, regardless of my quarterback or offensive system. Wherever White goes, he will fit in just wonderfully.
Trump card: He’s both an air and ground receiving game dominator.
Pro comparison: Jordy Nelson with an extra shot of Julio Jones’ physical gifts.
Kevin White’s Reception Perception prospect profile
3) Amari Cooper, Alabama
If you prefer refinement, you will love Amari Cooper. While nearly all college receivers are projects in the technical side of the game, the former Alabama pass catcher may be the exception. Already a silky smooth route runner, Cooper is far and away the best receiver in this class at creating separation. He gets open at every level of the field, and looked in-tune with multiple quarterbacks at Alabama. Cooper looks like a ready-made player for a timing based offense. Even though he’s not a speed demon to the degree some of his lower ranked peers are, Cooper does everything at breakneck pace. Best of all, he manages to do so in a controlled fashion. He can slow down his pattern in the span of seconds, and return to top gear effortlessly. At the college level, this allowed him to run circles around defensive backs. While he may not make as many plays on deep shots in the NFL, he will certainly be able to mortgage attributes those into domination of the shorter areas of the field. Cooper should be a player who regularly gets open, and can create some extra yardage after the catch.
Despite an easily projectable skillset, Amari Cooper is not flawless. He has some trouble in contested situations, despite marginal improvement in this area from 2013 to 2014. Leaping off the ground is not his strong suit, and he does not always look comfortable with controlling his body in the air. While not afraid of traffic, Cooper does lack for the strength needed to own the moment. Those struggles will limit his ability to help his next team in the vertical game. There are also more drops littered through his tape than a player of his refinement would lead you to believe. These are not deadly flaws, and are overwhelmed by the advanced positive weapons in his arsenal. He could work in just about any offense, and be a big help to a quarterback, but his skills would be best highlighted in a system based on timing and tempo. I have little question that Amari Cooper will be a strong NFL receiver, and get off to a fast start. However, he does not have the upside of the two players listed ahead of him.
Trump card: Ability to smoothly change directions mid-route, creating separation.
Pro comparison: all the good of both Roddy White and Michael Crabtree.
Amari Cooper’s Reception Perception prospect profile
Tier 2: good starters
4) Nelson Agholor, USC
Last year, when watching prospects, Odell Beckham Jr. was one of the first players I dug into. It did not take long for me to come to the conclusion, “oh yes, this works”. Nelson Agholor is not Odell Beckham Jr., but I had a similar experience when I turned on his tape. This will be the USC receiver that breaks the mold of recent failures from that program. Agholor has some of the best quickness in this class at every level of the game. He gets off the line with ease, and corners are often overwhelmed with him in press coverage. Once into his route, he displays the ability to redirect his body, whether with his hips or by shuffling his feet, with great tempo. He can certainly dust defenders on breaks and stems. Once the catch is made, Agholor is a real star. One of the best YAC threats in the class; he uses power, quickness and drive to break tackles. There were times he’d cross the whole field before anyone even had the chance to tackle him. Despite his smaller frame, Agholor often requires multiple defenders to bring him down. He relishes in the physical side of the game.
That comfort in the clashes translates to playing the ball in the air, too. Agholor is fearless in traffic, and can win contested catches. This combined with his ability to get easy separation on breaks makes me believe he can play outside in the NFL. He had drop problems in 2013, but quickly ironed those out of his game last season. Rarely will Agholor let passes get into his frame, and has strong hands to extend and snag the ball. It was extremely encouraging to watch this player take step-by-step developments to improve throughout his junior season. By his final college games, he was a near flawless player. Nelson Agholor is already a near complete player, who may still have room to grow. One of the more underrated receivers in this draft—look for Agholor to have a solid career regardless of landing spot, and truly thrive in a high-volume role.
Trump card: Quickness and drive to change directions in routes and with the ball in his hands.
Pro comparison: Golden Tate’s fearless attitude running after the catch, and contested situations, mixed with Greg Jennings’ precision.
5) DeVante Parker, Louisville
DeVante Parker has been one of the tougher evaluations for me this draft season. Some of the attributes with this player are just intoxicating, but there are some troubling moments that go without discussion by his biggest supporters. In my first visit to the RSP Film Room, both Matt Waldman and I laid out our concerns with Parker’s game (and espoused some affection for a player of the same first name you’ll find later down this list). Parker gets heralded as one of the best release technicians in this class, but it’s fair to question whether he is as developed as reputed in this area. His size and quickness paralyzed many inferior athletes that lined up across from him. Slow reactions allowed Parker to fly off the line untouched. However, he never really developed a counter punch for when a more developed cornerback did not display the same hesitation. If NFL corners don’t fall for his bread and butter move, and they likely will not, how long will it take him to readjust?
His route running needs some overhaul, despite having good potential here. While speed variance in-route can be a good thing, Parker borders on an out of control level. It would help if Parker did not fluctuate between gears so often in the same route, so that his quarterback can better rely on where he will be. This receiver also tips his routes off to those covering him. If he were more aggressive as a route runner, this would not be such a problem. At this point, Parker is unpredictable for his quarterback, but too predictable to those covering him.
All that being said, and its plenty to worry about, Parker does have very palpable upside. His strides are excellent, effortless and a real chore for defenders to keep up with. Parker can eat up cushion in a hurry and, even though he needs to add nuance to do the same in the NFL, make a play deep. Despite a wiry frame, he’s fearless in traffic and is excellent at bringing in the contested catches. His fluidity and quickness make you believe he can develop in the areas that he needs work in to become a reliable technician. It’s just going to take work. While I own some very negative views surrounding Parker, and certainly think he does not belong on Cooper and White’s level, I believe he can rise above his issues. But it will be a longer process than many think, and he may well always have inconsistencies. DeVante Parker did primarily get by with being able to out-athlete his competition in college, and he needs some time in wide receiver refinement school. Yet, there were more than enough flashes to believe he will not fade away with other members of that archetype.
Trump card: ability to eat up ground with his strides and lanky frame.
Pro comparison: both the ups and downs of Braylon Edwards (credit to Ethan Hammerman).
6) Devin Smith, Ohio State
From the moment I popped on the first Devin Smith cutup, I was intrigued. His big play ability was screaming off the screen. After I studied Smith for Reception Perception, I was hooked. Starting with the obvious, he is a master of the vertical game, and he still owns the most ridiculous deep game Reception Perception I’ve charted. While prospects like Sammie Coates and Phillip Dorrsett have speed, Smith is the one player in this class with near complete vertical ability. Meaning, he has the speed to fly, the subtleties to inch away from coverage at the last moment to separate, and can win contested catches. His ability to track the ball is second to none in this class, especially in the deep game. When Devin Smith walks into an NFL team’s building, he will already bring true vertical artistry, and be an immediate deep threat. That is enough of a trump card for him to get first round consideration.
However, I do not feel Smith is a limited player, not even close. He’s a physical receiver, and does not get bumped off of his patterns, or redirected. He sets the tone of the battle nine times out of 10. Smith displays some good release technique, and is so quick of the snap, he usually flies right into his route regardless. He has strong hands, and rarely drops a pass. Despite limited viewings, he showed some good route running capabilities on more than just fly patterns. He runs a good slant route, and can deceive corners as to where he intends to take his body. Smith has the quickness, and lower body explosion to separate in the short game, and he uses it when given the chances.
Frankly, a close comb reveals that this player has everything he’ll need to become a complete receiver in the NFL. I don’t really care if his school winning a National Championship, or a quarterback change, brought so much attention to Devin Smith. In no way does that mean he did not deserve it all along.
Trump card: already mastered one section of the field; a true deep game artist. He has the most discernable and certain trump card of this class.
Pro comparison: the offspring of a T.Y. Hilton and DeAndre Hopkins marriage.
Devin Smith’s Reception Perception prospect profile
7) Tre McBride, William and Mary
The under-the-radar tag sure did not apply to Tre McBride for very long. He helped himself with a tremendous combine, but McBride was impressing evaluators long before that. Obviously, this player comes from a small, unheralded program. Yet, he checks every box scouts should look for when watching a player from the low-levels. He frequently looked like the best player on the field, and moved better than anyone else. His ability to snare off-target passes was frequently on display, since he played with such a poor and erratic quarterback. McBride adjusts well to passes in the air, and has no fear leaving his feet or playing in contested situations.
This is a smooth operator, through and through. Not many receivers in this class sink their hips, and execute the dips better than McBride. He also has great speed and burst to create ample separation at the break points and stems of his routes. He’s just as fluid and brilliant with the ball in his hands. For a small school player, his technique is strong. There are not many instances of him displaying a poor release, and while he was beating lower-level players, his moves are on par with his higher ranked peers. McBride will occasionally let a ball slip away if he’s trying to set himself up to run after the catch, but that is far from a death-nail to his projection. This is a player with few holes, and not nearly as raw as one would expect coming from a program like William and Mary. Much like the player he’s compared to, McBride could pay dividends as a playmaker early in his career, and evolve into a regular starter as he hones his craft.
Trump card: ability to catch passes at all angles and from wild trajectories.
Pro comparison: a more explosive Pierre Garcon (credit to Rich Hribar)
8) Breshad Perriman, UCF
The team that selects Breshad Perriman seems destined to get lambasted because they’ll be reaching for an athletic specimen. His draft stock seemed to rise to that of a first rounder in congruence with his strong pro day workout. While that usually is not a good sign, the tape always showed an impressive player. The speed and fluidity portrayed in his workout numbers is displayed on the field. In terms of big-framed receivers, who move in an effortless fashion, Perriman may be second only to Dorial Green-Beckham. He’s also a better pure power player, which (along with the jersey number and hair) makes some observers believe they are seeing a version of Kevin White-lite. When he gets the ball in open space, he can elude tacklers, or run through them. Perriman could fill a role similar to what the Broncos ask of Demaryius Thomas. UCF did not get him the ball in space enough.
Perriman has two big flaws in his game his detractors will bring up in debates about his merit; one I am more worried about than the other. While he had more than his fair share of drops, and bungles in traffic, I believe those issues can be corrected. Perriman tracks the ball, and positions himself well in contested situations, but just needs to more accurately time when he throws his hands up. He can be a bit too predictable in this regard. There are a good amount of focus drops, but those can be ironed out of a player, especially when his quarterback play is upgraded in the NFL. Perriman is also the type of player that makes his drops negligible because of the physical gifts that he’ll use to make big plays.
What concerns me more about Perriman is a lack of ability to sell his deep routes. While he displays good deception, and never tips with his head, his eyes often give away whether he intends to go short or long. His releases also give his intentions away, as he frequently uses the fatal hop move. Savvy NFL corners will be able to read that like a book, and if he fails to correct those mistakes, he will be unable to function as a regular deep threat. Perriman shows some real potential as a route runner; his head use, quickness in and out of breaks, and some of his hand fighting tells the story of a player who can develop as a technician. However, he’s yet to weave the full tale together. In the end, Perriman’s positives outweigh the negatives, and even if he never develops, he’ll end up being a deadly weapon on the simple routes. You’d be surprised how some of the best NFL wide receivers are doing just that, without anyone pointing it out.
Trump card: a frightening combination of size, speed and fluidity.
Pro comparison: all the physical gifts of Cordarrelle Patterson, just packaged much better with superior route running.
Tier 3: regular contributors with ability to jump a tier
9) Justin Hardy, ECU
I started out higher on Justin Hardy, when first beginning to break down this class, than he ended up in these rankings. The players ahead of him just consistently stood out more, and certainly have superior upside. Now, that should not take away from what a solid receiver Hardy is. This is a tough player, with extremely reliable hands. Despite being a smaller receiver, Hardy can make plays outside of his frame, and has big vice grip hands to reel in the ball. When he gets his mitts on the football, its not going anywhere. There weren’t many issues with playing in traffic, and he does not get bumped off his routes.
Hardy’s releases were good, albeit not perfect, but his route running was quite impressive. He breaks well at the stems, and chops when he needs to. While he doesn’t have great speed, Hardy’s quickness is more than good enough to earn separation in the short to intermediate areas. Much like the player he’s compared to, Hardy just finds ways to get open and should be adept at freeing from multiple brands of coverage. His lack of vertical ability, and less than stellar play after the catch, certainly limit his ceiling. However, if I ran a pass heavy team, especially one with a fair amount of variance, I’d feel very good about bringing in Hardy to provide a stabilizing force. I’m open to the idea of some of the players ranked behind him having better, or at least more productive, NFL careers, but I just feel so comfortable with Hardy’s professional projection.
Trump card: overall precision.
Pro comparison: A less athletic Stevie Johnson.
10) Devante Davis, UNLV
One of the players I gravitated to early in the process, if you follow me on twitter yore familiar with my pounding the table for Devante Davis. The big receiver carries a rocked out 6’3 and 223 pound frame, and was mighty productive in 2013. Injuries derailed his senior season, and a chance to shine at the Senior Bowl, which is why he’s not on the draft community radar. As such, injuries are a concern, but Davis also needs work in areas of on-field play. His release technique needs to be crafted in manner where he can earn consistent leverage right away. He also needs to add more variety to his route running in general.
Luckily, he can be taught those aspects of the position. What is often not teachable is the innate ability to position the body in traffic, and come down with a contested catch. This is Davis’ biggest strength. Time and time again in college, Davis would win 50/50 balls with defenders draped all over him. Nothing fazed him, and unlike some of his peers ranked above him, Davis knows how to use his big frame. Davis is really an unquestionable prospect when the ball is in the air. There are some criticisms about Davis as a route running technician, and as a ball carrier, as some believe he’s too stiff to succeed in these areas. But he can improve in both departments with some teaching. He has the skills and traits to separate, with a little homework. Davis rarely got the chance to showcase his YAC skills, as his team’s quarterbacks just got him the ball on vertical based routes, and rarely led him into space. The reps he did get in space were almost never to his favor. Davis is not much more raw as a route runner than other top prospects, and has displayed the necessary quickness, and spatial awareness at break points, to believe he can add more to his arsenal. All in all, Davis’ strengths are NFL ready, and his weaknesses are ones that most prospects must tighten up before coming into the league. Much like a “Kelvin Benjamin-lite”, Davis can make an early impact based solely on his ability to win the ball in the air on difficult throws. In time, I believe he can grow into a full time player, and carries the profile of a future passing game leader. The highs far outweigh potential lows with this player, and he’s destined to be the steal of the wide receiver draft class.
Trump card: absolutely dominant at the catch point and playing the ball in the air.
Pro comparison: utilization plan of Kelvin Benjamin, but with an Alshon Jeffery ceiling.
There is no better sleeper in the 2015 NFL Draft than UNLV WR, Devante Davis (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)
11) DeAndre Smelter, Georgia Tech
Even during the season, it was apparent that there was something special here with DeAndre Smelter. Unfortunately, he tore an ACL in the middle of the 2014 season, and that set things back for him. As with all Georgia Tech wide receivers, Smelter is a big and athletic specimen. He’s a fluid mover, who can sink his hips and change direction with relative ease. Those attributes help him get loose in the short game, and his straight-line speed help him win as a vertical threat. Unlike some of his Yellow Jacket predecessors, Smelter is very precise. He has multiple moves to shake defenders at the line of scrimmage, and to create separation once into his route.
What makes him truly special is his physicality. His ability to post up defenders, and use his big body to his advantage, will help him even if he loses a bit of speed after the ACL tear. Watch some of Smelter’s blocks, and you’ll see he clearly relishes in the act of laying other players out. If he adds a bit more refinement to his game, and comes back strong from his recent injury, Smelter does not really have many weaknesses. This player is destined to be one of the steals of the draft.
Trump card: how he takes his physical gifts and molds them with precision.
Pro comparison: Michael Floyd with better technique.
Tier 4: valuable contributors to an offense
12) Kenny Bell, Nebraska
One of the more interesting receivers in this draft class, Nebraska’s Kenny Bell has been gaining steam lately. It’s easy to see why the evaluators digging deep like him so much. From the snap, Bell is very impressive gaining a release from the line of scrimmage. I was surprised that a receiver who never recorded more than 52 catches in a collegiate season was so advanced in that aspect of the game. Bell looks smooth and decisive, while consistently able to dupe cornerbacks as to where he intends to go with his route. Once into the pattern, Bell is one of the best in this class. He moves effortlessly, both in the deep and short game. His combine was more impressive than even his biggest supporters could have expected, and that athleticism shows up on the field. Bell can hit that extra gear to separate deep, while also having the savvy to own the underneath areas.
Toughness may be the best part of Bell’s game. He is a physical player when the ball is in the air, and when it’s in his hands. He’s much stronger than his frame would suggest, and his mindset is to take the fight to the defender. Bell is so fierce, and plays like a badass. You’ll notice Bell just toss around, and redirect, defenders with ease when he runs after the catch. At the catch point, Bell is great with timing his leaps, when to throw up his hands and is not bothered by contact in his routes. As a bonus, this is clearly the best blocking receiver in the draft class. Bell brings so much to the table. At the end of scouting him, I left feeling as if I did not write any major negatives. It’s fair to wonder whether I am still underrating him here in these rankings.
Trump card: toughness in all areas of the game.
Pro comparison: Kenny Stills molded with Julian Edelman and a dash of Victor Cruz.
13) Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
The ride of Jaelen Strong’s reputation has been quite the roller coaster. At one point he was many analysts’ overlooked wideout, only to suddenly receive a ton of hype leading up to and then after the scouting combine. There are certainly pieces of Strong’s game that can sell a watcher. He tracks the ball well in the air, and usually gets himself in good position to make a play on it. Nothing about being in tight coverage bothers Strong. In fact, he seems to thrive in these situations. Strong is a good leaper, can judge the situation and the defender well enough to know when to go up for the ball. He needs to extend his arms more often to win contested catches at the NFL level, rather than just absorb them, but Strong should be an excellent receiver playing in traffic.
Unfortunately, there are many other questions surrounding Strong’s pro translation. As a route runner, Strong just has not shown anything near what he’ll need to do as a pro. Of course, some of that could be due to his recent jump from a low-level program to Arizona State. However, he rarely shows that he even possess the necessary traits that would lead an evaluator to believe he can one day hone that craft. Despite his strong 40-yard dash time, Strong lacks for quickness and suddenness. That’s why you will see him separate in the short and intermediate game, but why he is so often in contested situations deep. Without that suddenness, Strong will always struggle to pull away from starting caliber defenders deep. With that being the case, he’ll just be making those contested catches many swoon over in the short areas of the field. I’m just not sure how valuable that is. You can certainly find players of that ilk, albeit with a slightly lower ceiling, much later than where Strong will go off the board.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a less reliable Marques Colston.
14) Chris Conley, Georgia
He’ll be unfairly labeled a work out warrior, due to his strong combine and unknown profile, but the tape says Chris Conley is a good football player. The Georgia receiver is fearless in traffic, and can bring down contested catches with no hang-ups. Indeed, overall Conley’s hands are some of the best in this class. His timing of when to bring his arms up, and the formation in which his hands come together are advanced for player who wasn’t thrown the ball much. He’s headstrong, and rarely makes mistakes as runner with the ball in his hands. Such reliability, mixed with great athleticism is rare to see for a player who is not projected to get within the first two rounds of the draft.
Conley does need some technical work. His break at the stem, foot frequency and chops are good right now. However, he still struggled to earn separation at times with the Bulldogs. It would help if he consistently shifted up his speed in-route. Too often he runs the same route at totally different speeds, and it seems to throw him off his goal. These issues are very fixable, and may come to him easily with more study at the pro level. Don’t discount what more reps and targets would do for this player. It can be easy for receivers in a run-heavy offense to slack on the technique, because they won’t always see the ball. Conley is one of my favorite values in this class.
Trump card: athleticism and strong hands technique.
Pro comparison: Miles Austin.
15) Phillip Dorsett, Miami
There’s no questioning who the best “flat our flyer” among this year’s wide receiver group is. The blazing fast Phillip Dorsett clearly carries that accolade. He can eat up cushion in a hurry, and will be a frightening cover for NFL defenders the moment he steps on to the field. His route running capabilities are a little undersold, as he shows some proficiency on multiple patterns. His speed affords him space, but he’s shown the ability to maximize those chances on outs, and some short patterns. If he can improve on selling his routes, Dorsett can become a complete, and dangerous receiver in time. With the ball in his hands, the speed in this player’s body is an immediate trump card. Even when defenders take good angles, he can run away from them with ease. He also isn’t afraid of a physical clash in the middle of the field, and will bounce off incoming tacklers.
My biggest issues with Dorsett lie with his ability to play in the air. Dorsett frequently did not come down with difficult passes when the situation called for him to leave his feet. He gives the necessary effort, and can get into position, but far too often the ball bounces out of his hands and finds its way to the ground. Whether that’s a physical or mentality issue, it’s very much present. The vertical game requires a receiver to convert catches in a number of difficult situations. As such, I’m not sure how anyone can feel comfortable with Dorsett’s ability to be a plus deep threat in the NFL, at this point. If he never corrects those issues, which is no easy task, he’ll always be more of a flash player than a regular for his pro team. Either way, a player with this speed and route potential has value.
Trump card: speed at all areas of the field.
Pro comparison: An even faster version of Brandin Cooks, but less air ability.
16) Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
There are some big Tyler Lockett fans out there. I’ve sees a few analyst suggest that if he were 6’2, Lockett would be regarded with the top three receivers in this draft. Unfortunately, he is not and never will be 6’2, so I fail to see what that offers to a conversation about his NFL projection. That’s the thing with small receivers; you have to grade them as small receivers. I did not see much in Lockett’s game to believe he can override his lack of size to develop into a high-end starter. His ability on the comeback route is inconsistent, and those demonstrate issues he has with contact and how his size will hinder him. In contested situations, Lockett looked uncomfortable and unable to regularly bring home the catches. Even when he did make the reception, he would sometimes juggle or double catch the ball. Expect those windows to tighten, and those chances to get more difficult, at the pro level.
Lockett does have his strengths. He’s a good route runner, but not the best in this class, as some will bill him to be. He gets a solid release from the line of scrimmage, and can avoid the jam. Lockett will diagnose and process what is in front of him when he has the ball in his hands at good speed, and set himself up with space to run through. All that said, I just couldn’t get the 2014 Oklahoma game out of my head. Lockett thrived when lined up on the right side of the field, and the secondary gave him wide-open space to work with. Yet, when a cornerback (wearing number 15) matched up with him on the right, he pressed and played physical with the diminutive Lockett. The receiver backed down from the challenge, failed to make due in the contested environment, and seemed to lose confidence in his hands. These issues were apparent in other games, but they were blatant and loud on that tape. Lockett can fill a role for an NFL offense, especially a timing based and creative system. Just don’t get fooled by the talk he can do much more.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: all the wide outcomes of Emmanuel Sanders, but less impressive in contested situations.
17) Rashad Greene, Florida State
If there is one player that many of my peers seem to like, that I’ve just never been a fan of, it’s Rashad Greene. Even when scouting Kelvin Benjamin, particularly after the Panthers drafted him, I just never saw the hype with the player on the other side. Greene was a fine, and consistent, receiver for multiple quarterbacks at Florida State. He has good technique, and is a strong overall route runner. The way he creates leverage over corners, even those stronger than him, is very impressive for a college player. He’s a smooth operator, who moves well and will make some plays with the ball in his hands.
Overall, I’m just not sure what Greene’s ceiling is, nor am I convinced his floor is all that high. He dropped some passes that he shouldn’t have in college, which challenges the idea he’ll be a sure bet, reliable outlet for his NFL quarterbacks. Greene does not back down from anything on the field, and I certainly do not question his toughness, but he can be redirected in his routes. That should not be too much of a surprise given his slight frame. It’s fair to wonder if the wiry receiver can hold up to the pounding and physical play of the NFL. While he made vertical plays in college, I don’t see much to convince me he can do those in the NFL. Small and slow are generally major signs for a buyer-beware combination. Greene has a place in the NFL, and will carve out a long career. It will just most likely be as a middling slot receiver.
Trump card: none
Pro comparison: a leaner Jason Avant.
Tier 5: projects with starting upside if things break right
18) Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas
Through the early stages of the draft process, Josh Norris urged me to check out a big wideout who impressed him at the Senior Bowl. That player was Central Arkansas’ Dezmin Lewis. In a class with very few true “big” receivers, this 6’4, 214 pound receiver stands out. Lewis is a lengthy beast, who runs effective routes and doesn’t sell them with his head. He’ll need to add more patterns to his repertoire, but shows the ability to manage his body through breaks. He high points the ball well, even when he does not create separation, and should be a good vertical weapon in the NFL. He has more than adequate speed and quickness to compliment his size, and body control.
While he does use his overall length to his advantage, he still needs to work on maximizing his big frame. Lewis is not quite the banger a player of his size should be, and hasn’t shown much in the way of being able to box out defenders. Much like the first player I have in his comparison section, Lewis is still learning all the advantages that come with being his size. Brian Quick took three years to put it all together, and Lewis may take some time to weave his skillset together, as well.
Trump card: pure size and body control.
Pro comparison: Brian Quick infused with Dwayne Bowe’s prowess at the catch point.
19) Sammie Coates, Auburn
As I was still evaluating Sammie Coates, I wrote that he carried some similarities to Stephen Hill, and other failures along that axis, coming out. Nothing since then has surfaced to make me change my mind on that stance. Coates obviously has his good qualities; he’s fast as all hell in a straight line, carries a rocked out frame and plays with a physical edge. He made a number of exciting plays in Auburn’s stripped down offense. However, I have major questions about how Coates will translate to the NFL, or if he’ll ever develop a baseline level of acceptable technique to stick. Coates lacks the fluidity to turn his supreme athleticism into sound wide receiver play, which separates him from Parker and White. He’s a bit too stiff in-route, at this stage.
Most troubling is his hand technique. The two are often out of sync with each other, which led to drops, mistiming and poor ball tracking in contested situations. With these struggles, he’ll be hard pressed to even reach a Martavias Bryant level of play, because he won’t be able to translate his speed to true vertical ability. Some coach could get their hands on Coates, and craft the perfect situation for him, but we’ve said that about players of this ilk many times before to middling, at best, results.
Trump card: athletic ability mixed with physical play.
Pro comparison: the technical gaffes, but physicality of Percy Harvin, with Charles Johnson’s game, in a perfect world. Right now, he’s closer to Stephen Hill, albeit more physical.
Sammie Coates’ Reception Perception prospect profile
Even during the season, it was apparent that there was something special here with DeAndre Smelter. Unfortunately, he tore an ACL in the middle of the 2014 season, and that set things back for him. As with all Georgia Tech wide receivers, Smelter is a big and athletic specimen. He’s a fluid mover, who can sink his hips and change direction with relative ease. Those attributes help him get loose in the short game, and his straight-line speed help him win as a vertical threat. Unlike some of his Yellow Jacket predecessors, Smelter is very precise. He has multiple moves to shake defenders at the line of scrimmage, and to create separation once into his route.
What makes him truly special is his physicality. His ability to post up defenders, and use his big body to his advantage, will help him even if he loses a bit of speed after the ACL tear. Watch some of Smelter’s blocks, and you’ll see he clearly relishes in the act of laying other players out. If he adds a bit more refinement to his game, and comes back strong from his recent injury, Smelter does not really have many weaknesses. This player is destined to be one of the steals of the draft.
Trump card: how he takes his physical gifts and molds them with precision.
Pro comparison: Michael Floyd with better technique.
Tier 4: valuable contributors to an offense
12) Kenny Bell, Nebraska
One of the more interesting receivers in this draft class, Nebraska’s Kenny Bell has been gaining steam lately. It’s easy to see why the evaluators digging deep like him so much. From the snap, Bell is very impressive gaining a release from the line of scrimmage. I was surprised that a receiver who never recorded more than 52 catches in a collegiate season was so advanced in that aspect of the game. Bell looks smooth and decisive, while consistently able to dupe cornerbacks as to where he intends to go with his route. Once into the pattern, Bell is one of the best in this class. He moves effortlessly, both in the deep and short game. His combine was more impressive than even his biggest supporters could have expected, and that athleticism shows up on the field. Bell can hit that extra gear to separate deep, while also having the savvy to own the underneath areas.
Toughness may be the best part of Bell’s game. He is a physical player when the ball is in the air, and when it’s in his hands. He’s much stronger than his frame would suggest, and his mindset is to take the fight to the defender. Bell is so fierce, and plays like a badass. You’ll notice Bell just toss around, and redirect, defenders with ease when he runs after the catch. At the catch point, Bell is great with timing his leaps, when to throw up his hands and is not bothered by contact in his routes. As a bonus, this is clearly the best blocking receiver in the draft class. Bell brings so much to the table. At the end of scouting him, I left feeling as if I did not write any major negatives. It’s fair to wonder whether I am still underrating him here in these rankings.
Trump card: toughness in all areas of the game.
Pro comparison: Kenny Stills molded with Julian Edelman and a dash of Victor Cruz.
13) Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
The ride of Jaelen Strong’s reputation has been quite the roller coaster. At one point he was many analysts’ overlooked wideout, only to suddenly receive a ton of hype leading up to and then after the scouting combine. There are certainly pieces of Strong’s game that can sell a watcher. He tracks the ball well in the air, and usually gets himself in good position to make a play on it. Nothing about being in tight coverage bothers Strong. In fact, he seems to thrive in these situations. Strong is a good leaper, can judge the situation and the defender well enough to know when to go up for the ball. He needs to extend his arms more often to win contested catches at the NFL level, rather than just absorb them, but Strong should be an excellent receiver playing in traffic.
Unfortunately, there are many other questions surrounding Strong’s pro translation. As a route runner, Strong just has not shown anything near what he’ll need to do as a pro. Of course, some of that could be due to his recent jump from a low-level program to Arizona State. However, he rarely shows that he even possess the necessary traits that would lead an evaluator to believe he can one day hone that craft. Despite his strong 40-yard dash time, Strong lacks for quickness and suddenness. That’s why you will see him separate in the short and intermediate game, but why he is so often in contested situations deep. Without that suddenness, Strong will always struggle to pull away from starting caliber defenders deep. With that being the case, he’ll just be making those contested catches many swoon over in the short areas of the field. I’m just not sure how valuable that is. You can certainly find players of that ilk, albeit with a slightly lower ceiling, much later than where Strong will go off the board.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a less reliable Marques Colston.
14) Chris Conley, Georgia
He’ll be unfairly labeled a work out warrior, due to his strong combine and unknown profile, but the tape says Chris Conley is a good football player. The Georgia receiver is fearless in traffic, and can bring down contested catches with no hang-ups. Indeed, overall Conley’s hands are some of the best in this class. His timing of when to bring his arms up, and the formation in which his hands come together are advanced for player who wasn’t thrown the ball much. He’s headstrong, and rarely makes mistakes as runner with the ball in his hands. Such reliability, mixed with great athleticism is rare to see for a player who is not projected to get within the first two rounds of the draft.
Conley does need some technical work. His break at the stem, foot frequency and chops are good right now. However, he still struggled to earn separation at times with the Bulldogs. It would help if he consistently shifted up his speed in-route. Too often he runs the same route at totally different speeds, and it seems to throw him off his goal. These issues are very fixable, and may come to him easily with more study at the pro level. Don’t discount what more reps and targets would do for this player. It can be easy for receivers in a run-heavy offense to slack on the technique, because they won’t always see the ball. Conley is one of my favorite values in this class.
Trump card: athleticism and strong hands technique.
Pro comparison: Miles Austin.
15) Phillip Dorsett, Miami
There’s no questioning who the best “flat our flyer” among this year’s wide receiver group is. The blazing fast Phillip Dorsett clearly carries that accolade. He can eat up cushion in a hurry, and will be a frightening cover for NFL defenders the moment he steps on to the field. His route running capabilities are a little undersold, as he shows some proficiency on multiple patterns. His speed affords him space, but he’s shown the ability to maximize those chances on outs, and some short patterns. If he can improve on selling his routes, Dorsett can become a complete, and dangerous receiver in time. With the ball in his hands, the speed in this player’s body is an immediate trump card. Even when defenders take good angles, he can run away from them with ease. He also isn’t afraid of a physical clash in the middle of the field, and will bounce off incoming tacklers.
My biggest issues with Dorsett lie with his ability to play in the air. Dorsett frequently did not come down with difficult passes when the situation called for him to leave his feet. He gives the necessary effort, and can get into position, but far too often the ball bounces out of his hands and finds its way to the ground. Whether that’s a physical or mentality issue, it’s very much present. The vertical game requires a receiver to convert catches in a number of difficult situations. As such, I’m not sure how anyone can feel comfortable with Dorsett’s ability to be a plus deep threat in the NFL, at this point. If he never corrects those issues, which is no easy task, he’ll always be more of a flash player than a regular for his pro team. Either way, a player with this speed and route potential has value.
Trump card: speed at all areas of the field.
Pro comparison: An even faster version of Brandin Cooks, but less air ability.
16) Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
There are some big Tyler Lockett fans out there. I’ve sees a few analyst suggest that if he were 6’2, Lockett would be regarded with the top three receivers in this draft. Unfortunately, he is not and never will be 6’2, so I fail to see what that offers to a conversation about his NFL projection. That’s the thing with small receivers; you have to grade them as small receivers. I did not see much in Lockett’s game to believe he can override his lack of size to develop into a high-end starter. His ability on the comeback route is inconsistent, and those demonstrate issues he has with contact and how his size will hinder him. In contested situations, Lockett looked uncomfortable and unable to regularly bring home the catches. Even when he did make the reception, he would sometimes juggle or double catch the ball. Expect those windows to tighten, and those chances to get more difficult, at the pro level.
Lockett does have his strengths. He’s a good route runner, but not the best in this class, as some will bill him to be. He gets a solid release from the line of scrimmage, and can avoid the jam. Lockett will diagnose and process what is in front of him when he has the ball in his hands at good speed, and set himself up with space to run through. All that said, I just couldn’t get the 2014 Oklahoma game out of my head. Lockett thrived when lined up on the right side of the field, and the secondary gave him wide-open space to work with. Yet, when a cornerback (wearing number 15) matched up with him on the right, he pressed and played physical with the diminutive Lockett. The receiver backed down from the challenge, failed to make due in the contested environment, and seemed to lose confidence in his hands. These issues were apparent in other games, but they were blatant and loud on that tape. Lockett can fill a role for an NFL offense, especially a timing based and creative system. Just don’t get fooled by the talk he can do much more.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: all the wide outcomes of Emmanuel Sanders, but less impressive in contested situations.
17) Rashad Greene, Florida State
If there is one player that many of my peers seem to like, that I’ve just never been a fan of, it’s Rashad Greene. Even when scouting Kelvin Benjamin, particularly after the Panthers drafted him, I just never saw the hype with the player on the other side. Greene was a fine, and consistent, receiver for multiple quarterbacks at Florida State. He has good technique, and is a strong overall route runner. The way he creates leverage over corners, even those stronger than him, is very impressive for a college player. He’s a smooth operator, who moves well and will make some plays with the ball in his hands.
Overall, I’m just not sure what Greene’s ceiling is, nor am I convinced his floor is all that high. He dropped some passes that he shouldn’t have in college, which challenges the idea he’ll be a sure bet, reliable outlet for his NFL quarterbacks. Greene does not back down from anything on the field, and I certainly do not question his toughness, but he can be redirected in his routes. That should not be too much of a surprise given his slight frame. It’s fair to wonder if the wiry receiver can hold up to the pounding and physical play of the NFL. While he made vertical plays in college, I don’t see much to convince me he can do those in the NFL. Small and slow are generally major signs for a buyer-beware combination. Greene has a place in the NFL, and will carve out a long career. It will just most likely be as a middling slot receiver.
Trump card: none
Pro comparison: a leaner Jason Avant.
Tier 5: projects with starting upside if things break right
18) Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas
Through the early stages of the draft process, Josh Norris urged me to check out a big wideout who impressed him at the Senior Bowl. That player was Central Arkansas’ Dezmin Lewis. In a class with very few true “big” receivers, this 6’4, 214 pound receiver stands out. Lewis is a lengthy beast, who runs effective routes and doesn’t sell them with his head. He’ll need to add more patterns to his repertoire, but shows the ability to manage his body through breaks. He high points the ball well, even when he does not create separation, and should be a good vertical weapon in the NFL. He has more than adequate speed and quickness to compliment his size, and body control.
While he does use his overall length to his advantage, he still needs to work on maximizing his big frame. Lewis is not quite the banger a player of his size should be, and hasn’t shown much in the way of being able to box out defenders. Much like the first player I have in his comparison section, Lewis is still learning all the advantages that come with being his size. Brian Quick took three years to put it all together, and Lewis may take some time to weave his skillset together, as well.
Trump card: pure size and body control.
Pro comparison: Brian Quick infused with Dwayne Bowe’s prowess at the catch point.
19) Sammie Coates, Auburn
As I was still evaluating Sammie Coates, I wrote that he carried some similarities to Stephen Hill, and other failures along that axis, coming out. Nothing since then has surfaced to make me change my mind on that stance. Coates obviously has his good qualities; he’s fast as all hell in a straight line, carries a rocked out frame and plays with a physical edge. He made a number of exciting plays in Auburn’s stripped down offense. However, I have major questions about how Coates will translate to the NFL, or if he’ll ever develop a baseline level of acceptable technique to stick. Coates lacks the fluidity to turn his supreme athleticism into sound wide receiver play, which separates him from Parker and White. He’s a bit too stiff in-route, at this stage.
Most troubling is his hand technique. The two are often out of sync with each other, which led to drops, mistiming and poor ball tracking in contested situations. With these struggles, he’ll be hard pressed to even reach a Martavias Bryant level of play, because he won’t be able to translate his speed to true vertical ability. Some coach could get their hands on Coates, and craft the perfect situation for him, but we’ve said that about players of this ilk many times before to middling, at best, results.
Trump card: athletic ability mixed with physical play.
Pro comparison: the technical gaffes, but physicality of Percy Harvin, with Charles Johnson’s game, in a perfect world. Right now, he’s closer to Stephen Hill, albeit more physical.
Sammie Coates’ Reception Perception prospect profile
Consistent flashes from Darius Davis' film sell that there is some real talent to develop (Image: Mike Mueller/Advance-Monticellonian)
20) Darius Davis, Henderson State
I’ll admit Darius Davis was not my discovery. A few months back, the venerable Matt Waldman messaged me, tipping me off to take a look at Davis before the draft took place. When I got the chance to pull up some games of Davis, it took just a few minutes to see what Waldman was enthused about. Davis passes the first qualifier when watching a small school player, as he’s clearly the best athlete on the field. On many plays, Davis would catch the ball on a quick pass, and turn on the jets to fly through a lane. He’s a big player, who seems to relish in the physical aspects of playing in the trafficked sectors of the wide receiver position. Davis is not just an athlete, he understands positioning, has nice vision and strong hands. The pro day numbers did not reflect the excitement gleaned from the film. However, I’d still bet on Davis being a project worth taking on, because he just appeared so dominant against his competition. He’ll need to maintain consistent fitness, and develop some route running in order to maximize it, but Davis has NFL ability. Watch closely to see if this player sticks with a team, and gets the take the necessary steps he needs to fulfill the potential seen in his limited samplings.
Trump card: acceleration through multiple angled lanes.
Pro comparison: a shorter, thicker and a one hundred times more raw version of Sammy Watkins.
Tier 6: valuable reserves and limited ceiling role players
21) Titus Davis, Central Michigan
I left the first few viewings of Titus Davis a little confused. On the one hand, this was an assignment-disciplined player whose technique was impressive. He separates really well in the short game, and works through traffic well to present a reliable underneath target. His release is generally acceptable, although he needs to make more decisive breaks and cuts. Yet, I found myself wishing he were just a shade more athletic, and especially faster, given his size. Those concerns were reflected in his combine testing. A lack of athleticism does not seem to hold Davis back from making plays after the catch, as he’ll regularly make guys miss in open space. He’s a good example of how spatial awareness and angle diagnosis can be just as important as physical ability, when it comes to earning YAC. All in all, I like Davis a lot a prospect, and believe he’s quite underrated. He’s the top player in a tier of valuable reserve players, but if he perfects his technique, there’s a chance for a place as a regular.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a slower, but tougher version of Andre Roberts.
22) Tony Lippett, Michigan State
One of the more interesting wide receiver evaluations this year comes from Tony Lippett. It really exemplifies the difference between results based, and nuanced focused scouting. If you strictly like results, you’ll be a fan of Tony Lippett’s ability to get open and make catches on a regular basis. But if you hone in on the nuances, you’re likely not a fan of him and his unorthodox route running. Perhaps that is putting it kindly, as the former Michigan State receiver’s route technique is rather poor. However, he did his job on the college level and provided a nice target for Connor Cook. Lippett has some of the best, most reliable hands in the draft and has no issues making plays in traffic. His athletic ability is middle of the pack, but there may just be something here with this player. Lippett is a player I liked more and more of the longer the process went on, but his pro team must be okay with his improvisational nature to accept him. I personally fall somewhere in between the results and nuanced divide of scouting, and my ranking of Lippett reflects that.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Brandon LaFell with a better pair of hands.
23) Josh Harper, Fresno State
Here's another player I scouted and took a liking to during my work with Optimum Scouting this year, just not to the same degree as Devante Davis. Josh Harper was able to overcome a severe downgrade in his quarterback player after Derek Carr left for the NFL. When watching Harper, you often find yourself consistently noting how often he creates a sliver of separation. He does not possess great size or speed, but he regularly gets open against the defenders across from him. Harper also makes plays in traffic, and diagnoses angles well with the ball in his hands. The question remains, will he be able to do that against superior athletes in the NFL? His athletic testing numbers left a lot to be desired.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Jerricho Cotchery, through and through.
24) Darren Waller, Georgia Tech
Tall, fast and technically raw; must be a Georgia Tech wide receiver. Unlike his teammate, DeAndre Smelter, Waller doesn’t mold precision and craftsmanship with his athleticism. He also looks pretty stiff, and is not much of a threat after the catch. You will not see Waller make many guys miss, or infuse any creativity into his pre-catch game. What he does do, he does very well. He’ll post up, and make a strong catch in traffic. His physical profile is indicative of a player who can get over the top of a defense. There are certainly some interesting aspects to Waller’s game. He’s ranked so low because I’m simply not sure where he ends up playing.
Trump card: size and speed combination.
Pro comparison: a more physical rendition of the current version of Justin Hunter, but faster in a straight line, but could be a Ladarius Green type of project.
25) Kasen Williams, Washington
The former Huskies’ wide receiver is a player who had a higher projection before injuries took their toll. Kasen Williams still could present a value late in this draft. He’s a strong player, who can execute assignments in the finesse game as well. He seems to lack the burst to separate in the deep areas, and his overall play speed is unimpressive. Using his body, and controlling himself is a strength of, and he’ll need that in the pros due to his inability to separate. If Williams is able to leave his injury riddled past behind, he could develop into a nice possession receiver.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a less-mistake prone Josh Morgan.
26) Austin Hill, Arizona
There was a good bit of hype surrounding Austin Hill in certain circles of the draft community at different points of his career. That train never managed to leave the station, and Hill’s time at Arizona culminated in playing some tight end. A torn ACL in 2013 seemed to sap this player of the vast majority of his movement skills. It also robbed him of the chance to develop as an in-route technician, something he certainly needed. However, Hill still possesses a big body and a very strong pair of hands. Should he ever return to near full strength, there could be something interesting here. But based on what we’ve seen recently, his best possible outcome would be as a big slot receiver.
Trump card: his hands.
Pro comparison: 70% of Jordan Matthews.
Tier 7: possible reserves with major translation questions
27) Jamison Crowder, Duke
There was a fair bit of intrigue with Jamison Crowder based on his performance at the Senior Bowl. However, he really disappointed those looking to be impressed with the speed of this diminutive wideout at the NFL combine. Looking a little closer, Crowder’s film leaves a few things to be desired, as well. He is bothered by traffic, both before an after the catch. He’s not particularly creative or elusive with the ball in his hands, either. Those seem two combined seem like a kiss of death for a small slot receiver. I feel like players of Crowder’s ilk are a dime a dozen, and are assets that can be located almost anywhere.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a slower Markus Wheaton.
28) Ty Montgomery, Stanford
Talk about an oddity. Ty Montgomery came into the season as a player with some intrigue, but his senior season only served to raise real questions. Montgomery has a short, squat build that makes him looks like a running back. Yet, he’s repeatedly refused to switch positions. Its strange, because he’s been unable to display he has the consistent ability to execute wide receiver assignments. His overall game, before the ball arrives, lacks the decisiveness or aggression to separate from coverage. Don’t look for any drop of technique here. It does not help that his hands are far from a favorable bet. Montgomery has some real ability in space, but we’ve seen that NFL teams are mostly unable, or unwilling, to allocate resources to crafting a utilization plan for non-premier players who need that assistance. This means Montgomery’s most likely outcome is as a high-end kick returner.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: the unholy offspring of Jacoby Jones and Tavon Austin
29) Antwan Goodley, Baylor
As with nearly all Baylor prospects, there are some exciting moments on Antwan Goodley’s film. He possesses the ability to get vertical, even though he has little to no craft to his game. Goodley plays like a running back, and he may be best taking the majority of his reps out of the backfield at the pro level. Too often, it looks like Goodley is passively fighting the football. How odd is that? There is a place for this player in the NFL, but it will take some creativity, and even then I’m just not sure it’s as a regular.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: if De’Anthony Thomas and Greg Little were chemically infused. For better or worse.
30) Stephon Diggs, Maryland
I came away from watching Stephon Diggs without any clue as to what he does well enough to be a regular contributor at the NFL level. He has some good play speed, and got college defenders to bite on some of his route jerks. Yet, Diggs is far from polished in any area at this point. His route running is unimpressive, his movements too choppy to be effective in the open field and is bother by traffic. Diggs projects as a middle of the road slot receiver in the NFL, at best.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a faster version of Griff Whalen.
31) Mario Alford, West Virginia
Very productive, with real speed, there is something to see here with Mario Alford. His blazing 40-yard dash showcased his greatest attribute, but he’s also a technically sound receiver with his hands, especially in contested situations. He needs to be a bit more decisive, and hit that next gear faster, in order to maximize his open field abilities. Alford is much closer to the Tavon Austin archetype West Virginia’s receivers usually fall along than his former teammate, Kevin White. A team may be able to get the same production out of Alford that Austin has brought to the Rams, and can actually take him in the proper draft range.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a faster Dexter McCluster.
Tier 8: bottom of, and on and off, the roster player
32) Vince Mayle, Washington State
Vince Mayle does some things well, and has good short area burst with nice balance after the catch. His route technique is solid overall, particularly the release from the line of scrimmage. However, the negatives outweigh the positives. Mayle is slow, and will drop passes. That is usually a kiss of death combination. His hand technique is unrefined, to put it kindly. The two are often out of sync with each other, and he tries to trap the ball rather than let it fall between his mitts. I’m just not sure what the upside is, even if Mayle ever manages to correct his hard to fix issues.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a more fluid Kenbrell Thompkins.
33) Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State
Looking over Ezell Ruffin’s athletic testing is a painful endeavor. As was feared, he does not even approach a baseline acceptable level of athleticism for an NFL wide receiver. However, Ruffin is a tough player who is fearless in traffic, can make the outstanding catches and the routine ones. He also got over top of Mountain West defenses at times, despite his poor combing numbers. His climb will be a tough one due to a blatant lack of speed, but he’s worth a look.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: 45% of Anquan Boldin, in a best-case scenario.
34) J.J. Nelson, UAB
The world was alerted to J.J. Nelson when he blazed a 4.28 40-yard dash. Unfortunately, that looks a little less impressive considering he weighed in at 156 pounds. As a receiver, Nelson shows some ability to make plays in traffic, and disregard is own tiny frame. He also displays solid overall technique, particularly with his hands. When returning kicks, he’s able to diagnose and exploit lanes to get down the field in a hurry. His quickness does not match his long speed, and that will likely limit any potential future as a gadget weapon at the pro level. Its hard to envision a team taking the time it would require to craft a plan for Nelson as an offensive player, and he more than likely ends up as a special teamer only, albeit a potential good one.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Trindon Holliday with some Travis Benjamin as a receiver.
35) Deontay Greenberry, Houston
Deontay Greenberry had a nice season in 2013, but his game evaporated the following year. He was incredibly imprecise and mistake prone, particularly with drops and mistiming passes. Greenberry’s fall from grace resulted in him not receiving a combine invite. At his pro day, he failed to do anything of major note athletically, although there is some degree of playing speed on tape. If you’re waiting to see him run anything that looks like an NFL route, get comfortable. In a best-case scenario, perhaps he could hold down a big slot role for a team. However, that is a major long shot.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: 50% of Louis Murphy.
I’ll admit Darius Davis was not my discovery. A few months back, the venerable Matt Waldman messaged me, tipping me off to take a look at Davis before the draft took place. When I got the chance to pull up some games of Davis, it took just a few minutes to see what Waldman was enthused about. Davis passes the first qualifier when watching a small school player, as he’s clearly the best athlete on the field. On many plays, Davis would catch the ball on a quick pass, and turn on the jets to fly through a lane. He’s a big player, who seems to relish in the physical aspects of playing in the trafficked sectors of the wide receiver position. Davis is not just an athlete, he understands positioning, has nice vision and strong hands. The pro day numbers did not reflect the excitement gleaned from the film. However, I’d still bet on Davis being a project worth taking on, because he just appeared so dominant against his competition. He’ll need to maintain consistent fitness, and develop some route running in order to maximize it, but Davis has NFL ability. Watch closely to see if this player sticks with a team, and gets the take the necessary steps he needs to fulfill the potential seen in his limited samplings.
Trump card: acceleration through multiple angled lanes.
Pro comparison: a shorter, thicker and a one hundred times more raw version of Sammy Watkins.
Tier 6: valuable reserves and limited ceiling role players
21) Titus Davis, Central Michigan
I left the first few viewings of Titus Davis a little confused. On the one hand, this was an assignment-disciplined player whose technique was impressive. He separates really well in the short game, and works through traffic well to present a reliable underneath target. His release is generally acceptable, although he needs to make more decisive breaks and cuts. Yet, I found myself wishing he were just a shade more athletic, and especially faster, given his size. Those concerns were reflected in his combine testing. A lack of athleticism does not seem to hold Davis back from making plays after the catch, as he’ll regularly make guys miss in open space. He’s a good example of how spatial awareness and angle diagnosis can be just as important as physical ability, when it comes to earning YAC. All in all, I like Davis a lot a prospect, and believe he’s quite underrated. He’s the top player in a tier of valuable reserve players, but if he perfects his technique, there’s a chance for a place as a regular.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a slower, but tougher version of Andre Roberts.
22) Tony Lippett, Michigan State
One of the more interesting wide receiver evaluations this year comes from Tony Lippett. It really exemplifies the difference between results based, and nuanced focused scouting. If you strictly like results, you’ll be a fan of Tony Lippett’s ability to get open and make catches on a regular basis. But if you hone in on the nuances, you’re likely not a fan of him and his unorthodox route running. Perhaps that is putting it kindly, as the former Michigan State receiver’s route technique is rather poor. However, he did his job on the college level and provided a nice target for Connor Cook. Lippett has some of the best, most reliable hands in the draft and has no issues making plays in traffic. His athletic ability is middle of the pack, but there may just be something here with this player. Lippett is a player I liked more and more of the longer the process went on, but his pro team must be okay with his improvisational nature to accept him. I personally fall somewhere in between the results and nuanced divide of scouting, and my ranking of Lippett reflects that.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Brandon LaFell with a better pair of hands.
23) Josh Harper, Fresno State
Here's another player I scouted and took a liking to during my work with Optimum Scouting this year, just not to the same degree as Devante Davis. Josh Harper was able to overcome a severe downgrade in his quarterback player after Derek Carr left for the NFL. When watching Harper, you often find yourself consistently noting how often he creates a sliver of separation. He does not possess great size or speed, but he regularly gets open against the defenders across from him. Harper also makes plays in traffic, and diagnoses angles well with the ball in his hands. The question remains, will he be able to do that against superior athletes in the NFL? His athletic testing numbers left a lot to be desired.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Jerricho Cotchery, through and through.
24) Darren Waller, Georgia Tech
Tall, fast and technically raw; must be a Georgia Tech wide receiver. Unlike his teammate, DeAndre Smelter, Waller doesn’t mold precision and craftsmanship with his athleticism. He also looks pretty stiff, and is not much of a threat after the catch. You will not see Waller make many guys miss, or infuse any creativity into his pre-catch game. What he does do, he does very well. He’ll post up, and make a strong catch in traffic. His physical profile is indicative of a player who can get over the top of a defense. There are certainly some interesting aspects to Waller’s game. He’s ranked so low because I’m simply not sure where he ends up playing.
Trump card: size and speed combination.
Pro comparison: a more physical rendition of the current version of Justin Hunter, but faster in a straight line, but could be a Ladarius Green type of project.
25) Kasen Williams, Washington
The former Huskies’ wide receiver is a player who had a higher projection before injuries took their toll. Kasen Williams still could present a value late in this draft. He’s a strong player, who can execute assignments in the finesse game as well. He seems to lack the burst to separate in the deep areas, and his overall play speed is unimpressive. Using his body, and controlling himself is a strength of, and he’ll need that in the pros due to his inability to separate. If Williams is able to leave his injury riddled past behind, he could develop into a nice possession receiver.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a less-mistake prone Josh Morgan.
26) Austin Hill, Arizona
There was a good bit of hype surrounding Austin Hill in certain circles of the draft community at different points of his career. That train never managed to leave the station, and Hill’s time at Arizona culminated in playing some tight end. A torn ACL in 2013 seemed to sap this player of the vast majority of his movement skills. It also robbed him of the chance to develop as an in-route technician, something he certainly needed. However, Hill still possesses a big body and a very strong pair of hands. Should he ever return to near full strength, there could be something interesting here. But based on what we’ve seen recently, his best possible outcome would be as a big slot receiver.
Trump card: his hands.
Pro comparison: 70% of Jordan Matthews.
Tier 7: possible reserves with major translation questions
27) Jamison Crowder, Duke
There was a fair bit of intrigue with Jamison Crowder based on his performance at the Senior Bowl. However, he really disappointed those looking to be impressed with the speed of this diminutive wideout at the NFL combine. Looking a little closer, Crowder’s film leaves a few things to be desired, as well. He is bothered by traffic, both before an after the catch. He’s not particularly creative or elusive with the ball in his hands, either. Those seem two combined seem like a kiss of death for a small slot receiver. I feel like players of Crowder’s ilk are a dime a dozen, and are assets that can be located almost anywhere.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a slower Markus Wheaton.
28) Ty Montgomery, Stanford
Talk about an oddity. Ty Montgomery came into the season as a player with some intrigue, but his senior season only served to raise real questions. Montgomery has a short, squat build that makes him looks like a running back. Yet, he’s repeatedly refused to switch positions. Its strange, because he’s been unable to display he has the consistent ability to execute wide receiver assignments. His overall game, before the ball arrives, lacks the decisiveness or aggression to separate from coverage. Don’t look for any drop of technique here. It does not help that his hands are far from a favorable bet. Montgomery has some real ability in space, but we’ve seen that NFL teams are mostly unable, or unwilling, to allocate resources to crafting a utilization plan for non-premier players who need that assistance. This means Montgomery’s most likely outcome is as a high-end kick returner.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: the unholy offspring of Jacoby Jones and Tavon Austin
29) Antwan Goodley, Baylor
As with nearly all Baylor prospects, there are some exciting moments on Antwan Goodley’s film. He possesses the ability to get vertical, even though he has little to no craft to his game. Goodley plays like a running back, and he may be best taking the majority of his reps out of the backfield at the pro level. Too often, it looks like Goodley is passively fighting the football. How odd is that? There is a place for this player in the NFL, but it will take some creativity, and even then I’m just not sure it’s as a regular.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: if De’Anthony Thomas and Greg Little were chemically infused. For better or worse.
30) Stephon Diggs, Maryland
I came away from watching Stephon Diggs without any clue as to what he does well enough to be a regular contributor at the NFL level. He has some good play speed, and got college defenders to bite on some of his route jerks. Yet, Diggs is far from polished in any area at this point. His route running is unimpressive, his movements too choppy to be effective in the open field and is bother by traffic. Diggs projects as a middle of the road slot receiver in the NFL, at best.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a faster version of Griff Whalen.
31) Mario Alford, West Virginia
Very productive, with real speed, there is something to see here with Mario Alford. His blazing 40-yard dash showcased his greatest attribute, but he’s also a technically sound receiver with his hands, especially in contested situations. He needs to be a bit more decisive, and hit that next gear faster, in order to maximize his open field abilities. Alford is much closer to the Tavon Austin archetype West Virginia’s receivers usually fall along than his former teammate, Kevin White. A team may be able to get the same production out of Alford that Austin has brought to the Rams, and can actually take him in the proper draft range.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a faster Dexter McCluster.
Tier 8: bottom of, and on and off, the roster player
32) Vince Mayle, Washington State
Vince Mayle does some things well, and has good short area burst with nice balance after the catch. His route technique is solid overall, particularly the release from the line of scrimmage. However, the negatives outweigh the positives. Mayle is slow, and will drop passes. That is usually a kiss of death combination. His hand technique is unrefined, to put it kindly. The two are often out of sync with each other, and he tries to trap the ball rather than let it fall between his mitts. I’m just not sure what the upside is, even if Mayle ever manages to correct his hard to fix issues.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: a more fluid Kenbrell Thompkins.
33) Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State
Looking over Ezell Ruffin’s athletic testing is a painful endeavor. As was feared, he does not even approach a baseline acceptable level of athleticism for an NFL wide receiver. However, Ruffin is a tough player who is fearless in traffic, can make the outstanding catches and the routine ones. He also got over top of Mountain West defenses at times, despite his poor combing numbers. His climb will be a tough one due to a blatant lack of speed, but he’s worth a look.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: 45% of Anquan Boldin, in a best-case scenario.
34) J.J. Nelson, UAB
The world was alerted to J.J. Nelson when he blazed a 4.28 40-yard dash. Unfortunately, that looks a little less impressive considering he weighed in at 156 pounds. As a receiver, Nelson shows some ability to make plays in traffic, and disregard is own tiny frame. He also displays solid overall technique, particularly with his hands. When returning kicks, he’s able to diagnose and exploit lanes to get down the field in a hurry. His quickness does not match his long speed, and that will likely limit any potential future as a gadget weapon at the pro level. Its hard to envision a team taking the time it would require to craft a plan for Nelson as an offensive player, and he more than likely ends up as a special teamer only, albeit a potential good one.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: Trindon Holliday with some Travis Benjamin as a receiver.
35) Deontay Greenberry, Houston
Deontay Greenberry had a nice season in 2013, but his game evaporated the following year. He was incredibly imprecise and mistake prone, particularly with drops and mistiming passes. Greenberry’s fall from grace resulted in him not receiving a combine invite. At his pro day, he failed to do anything of major note athletically, although there is some degree of playing speed on tape. If you’re waiting to see him run anything that looks like an NFL route, get comfortable. In a best-case scenario, perhaps he could hold down a big slot role for a team. However, that is a major long shot.
Trump card: none.
Pro comparison: 50% of Louis Murphy.
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