AFC Record Predictions

AFC 2013 Record Predictions

By: Matt Harmon

AFC East:

1) New England Patriots (13-3)*

The Patriots once again run away with the AFC East. As I charted their season there were very few games I could conceivably see New England losing. I had New England only one divisional contest, to Miami late in the season, and had them winning all their games in Foxborough. Changes have abounded throughout New England’s offseason, but even with a new cast of characters, a cupcake division and the presence of Tom Brady the Patriots to walk away with the best recorded in the NFL.

2) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

I am not aboard the Dolphins hype train, and it shows in my mixed bag projection of their season. Teams that run out in free agency and try to assemble a team fantasy football style rarely, if ever, work out. My projections for Miami’s wins and losses were all over the map. I had them beating some good teams, but dropping easily winnable contests. Despite their free agency binge and a strong defense, this is a roster with holes, and I do not see a playoff berth for them.

3) New York Jets (4-12)

When I started this project I actually did not anticipate the Jets coming away with this poor of a record, as I do not think they are as untalented as most do. This roster has some talented pieces, but injuries and the massive problem at quarterback forced my hand in projecting wins for the Jets. In the end, I can certainly see them beating two of their division rivals at home, Buffalo and Miami, but beyond that, this roster is not complete enough to compete against some of the teams on a very tough schedule.

4) Buffalo Bills (3-13)

Coming into this preseason I thought there was finally some hope for the Bills for the first time in a long time; certainly not playoffs, but just some promise. E.J. Manuel was looking comfortable in the preseason, and they have some exciting weapons around him on offense. Now with Manuel on the shelf (and missing valuable reps) and potential stopgap Kevin Kolb possibly done for his career, it is hard to see success for the Bills, especially early in the season. Even when Manuel comes back it is going to take awhile for a rhythm to be established in Buffalo, and consequently I do not have the Bills getting their first win until Week 11 of the season. There just are not many cakewalks for this Bills team early on in the season. Sorry, Buffalo, maybe fate will be better to you next year.

AFC West:

1) Denver Broncos (12-4)*

Denver is a supremely talented team, and it shows in their final record. Much has been made of their injury issues, and the Von Miller suspension, in the preseason, but even so I had them making it out of their gate very favorably. The fact is the AFC is weak this year, and the AFC west is even weaker. I had the Broncos sweeping their own division, and dropping only four games, all of which I could see them winning. I tried to be conservative with the Broncos, but even so 12-4 still feels like the floor Denver, and I will not be shocked to see them come away with a better record than this.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)

Many are touting the Chiefs as a potential play off team, and I had them just barely missing that mark. While I see the Chiefs talent, they have a good defense, some nice pieces on offense, and their quarterback play and coaching should be a million times better than what we saw from them last year, I still feel like my projection for the Chiefs is a best case scenario. What I mean is that if everything breaks just right for this team I can see them reaching this level of success. I trust Andy Reid and company to make it all come together, but I can certainly see room in their schedule for this team going the other direction as well.

3) San Diego Chargers (4-12)

As you can probably tell, I do not think there is much to like in San Diego this year, and outside of contests against the AFC South, and their division games, I do not see a lot of games I can comfortably project the Chargers to win. They will probably split their games with Oakland and Kansas City, but frankly, they do not have the talent to compete with good teams anymore. It is going to be a long year in San Diego.

4) Oakland Raiders (1-15)

Boy does this feel harsh to even write. I never imagine I could ever project an NFL team to come out of a season with just one win, but the Raiders may actually be the worst NFL team I have ever seen assembled. Seriously, take a look at their roster, it has the talent level of an expansion team. If 0-16 possible? It pains me to say it, but yes for this team it really is conceivable. I gave them a single win against their division rival Chargers, who are not very good themselves, but even that felt like a charity win.

AFC South:

1) Houston Texans (10-6)*

It was a tight race in the AFC South, but I had the Texans coming away with the division crown by a game. I think the Texans offense will be much better this year, and their defense should be much healthier as well. There are a number of winnable games on the Texans schedule this year, but there are certainly games against some good teams I can see them losing. While the bottom two teams in the division do not pose any immediate threat, the Texans should feel a ton of pressure to capitalize on winning this division this season, as the young Colts are biting at their heels. If my projection for the Texans holds up, all that really matters is that they advance deep into the playoffs.

2) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)*

In this projection the Colts grab the final AFC playoff seed by virtue of a strong inter-conference record. Even with that positive result, I feel so conflicted on the Colts as a team. They have holes on the defense, but their free agent additions, while overpriced, certainly make them even slightly better. On offense, they have the young talent to be a total juggernaut for years to come, but do some of the players take a step back in year two? All in all, I could see this team being a 10+ win team, but I can see them falling back from their success from last season to be a .500 type team. Charting their games, I ended up having them in the middle of all that, and I can live with that.

3) Tennessee Titans (5-11)

Count me amongst those who do not believe in the Tennessee Titans. This looks like a team with some talent, but a deficient quarterback and a coaching staff in over its head is likely to hold them way back. I had them sneak out wins against second tier teams, like the Texans and the Rams, and feel confident they can beat up on bottom feeder teams like the Raiders and Jets, but in the end this is a team I do not have faith in to compete with strong squads. This type of failure season could be one that stings for now, but actually helps because it will force them to clean house for the long run.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

The Jaguars are not Raiders bad, but they are not much better. The Jags have a ton of holes, and a severe lack of depth throughout the roster. The offense has some promise, but I will absolutely be taking the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach with quarterback Blaine Gabbert. It was a challenge to find winnable games for Jacksonville, and frankly a lot will have to break right for them to even get to five or six wins. Despite how excited I am about Head Coach Gus Bradley and his staff’s future, I still see a long first season in Jacksonville.

AFC North:

1) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)*

Some are still predicting a fall off from the reigning Super Bowl champs, but not this guy. I believe their defense is going to much improved and amongst the elite, and consequently they will be able to sustain their recent success. I can certainly see this team laying an egg some weeks, but the AFC just is not strong enough for Baltimore to fall far this year. The games to watch the Ravens in will be their matchups against the AFC big boys, Denver and New England, and their games against the strong NFC North.

2) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)*

I have been really hard on the Bengals during the past two years. I have consistently ranked them low because they dropped games against good teams and smacked around bad teams. This year, I feel they have the maturity and firepower to final beat some of the better AFC teams that have troubled them, and still beat up on those weaker teams. I did not do playoff predictions in this exercise, but we all know that is what matter for Cincinnati, and it is also where my faith in them (mainly Andy Dalton) falls apart.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

I think the Steelers are in the midst of a mini slump here, and will miss the playoff once again. They do not have the same exceptional talent or ferocity on defense, and the injury to rookie runner Le’Veon Bell hurts their ability to sustain drives on offense. I will say, there is room in their schedule for Pittsburgh to return to their usual success, but given my opinion of their roster, I felt more comfortable being conservative with their win predictions. With elite quarterback Ben Roethlisberger behind center the Steelers will always be around playoff contention, but I still do not see the players around him this year to push them over the hump.

4) Cleveland Browns (6-10)

I know the record does not really show it, but I like the Browns this year. I think the coaching staff is superb, and they will put their young talent in much better schemes to fit their skills this year. Nevertheless, there is not enough talent on this team to compete for a playoff spot this year. I have them mostly beating bad, and middle of the pack type teams in this projection, but if this young team can sneak a few wins from more established teams, then a .500 record is certainly possible. Look out for the Browns this year.

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