Divisional Round NFL Picks
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Ravens Breakdown:
The Ravens are coming off a highly emotional win in Ray Lewis’ last home game. This is a whole different animal however. Its tough for me to imagine a scenario in which Baltimore wins unless Denver collapses and Baltimore plays at its absolute best. Two things that concern me most: Flacco’s ability to handle the pass rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dummervil and the ability of the Ravens’ receivers to separate. Both of these are well-documented weaknesses of Baltimore’s and things that Denver does very well.
Broncos Breakdown:
The way this Broncos team has been so well prepared all year I imagine the week off surely helps them. As I listed above, the Broncos have a number of matchup advantages on the field that work in their favor. They also have home field advantage in their high altitude stadium going for them as well. As you can see, I expect Denver to roll here.
Matchup to Watch: Ray Rice vs. Denver’s front seven
I listed the obvious matchups in the Ravens breakdown, but this is one that really could determine the game. Boring, since I listed him last week, but if Baltimore has any hope in winning this game it absolutely needs Rice to have a dominant game. The one small chink in Denver’s armor could be its run defense, so this is a must watch part of the game.
My Pick:
I seriously expect Denver to win this game. So much rides in their favor and I just thing they are the farm more superior team. Maybe the Ravens have another miracle for Ray up their sleeves, but I don’t see it.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1)
Packers Breakdown:
The Packers did not really get tested last week with Webb facing them. This should be a much bigger test. The Packers are entering this game much healthier than they have been in recent weeks as all the players that are not out for the season are listed as probable on the injury report. Rodgers is playing at his highest level of the season, so everything is set up for a championship round.
49ers Breakdown:
It sounds like I am hyping the Packers, but the Niners won’t be an easy out. This team has confidence and they have already beaten the Packers this year. The caveat: that was way back in week one and much has changed for this team since then. Obviously Colin Kaepernick is the new starting quarterback, but the real question is how healthy is Justin Smith? He makes the whole defense go and without him they do not rush the passer much.
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Packers secondary.
As noted, this group is healthy for the first time in a long time. Tramon Williams has said he is itching to draw the matchup with Michael Crabtree, so that should be exciting to watch if Crabtree can continue his great play. Charles Woodson, while not the player he once was, can still get himself in position to bait young quarterbacks to make mistakes.
My Pick:
I am picking the Packers. I feel like they are the best overall team in the NFC, and having easily the best quarterback doesn’t hurt either.
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seahawks Breakdown:
This is really a tale of two teams. For the Seahawks they are coming in as the hot wildcard team that came into the NFL playoffs on a complete roll. They have a confidence about them and they certainly wont be an easy out. Here is an underrated aspect of this game. How will Russell Wilson deal with Mike Nolan’s disguise based defense? Nolan disguises coverages very well and also brings blitzes that are difficult to read. Wilson has been holding the ball a bit too long and hasn’t sensed pressure too well the past few weeks.
Falcons Breakdown:
In this tale, the Falcons are the veteran team that has been here before. The problem is that haven’t “done that” before. This moment is extremely defining for them because they have not yet won a playoff game under the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith regime. Will this be the moment?
Matchup to Watch: Seahawks corners vs. Falcons wideouts
This is the matchup that everyone is talking about, and with good reason. These four guys are certainly all amongst the top ten in their respective positions. Whoever wins this matchup very well could win the game. Or things could break even in this matchup. We will see.
My Pick:
History shows us to pick the hot team and I am stinking with the Seahawks. This loss could be devastating to the Falcons, because this year is supposed to be different. But I just don’t see how it is.
Houston Texans (13-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Texans Breakdown:
The Texans come into this matchup hoping they do not suffer a repeat of what took place in November. What is good for Houston is they can really play the underdog roll. No one expected them to be here and no one expects them to win now that they are. Houston will need to play better than they did against the Bengals; no way Tom Brady puts up Andy Dalton’s numbers.
Patriots Breakdown:
The Patriots come into this matchup as heavy favorites, and it is easy to see why. Brady is much better than Schaub and I don’t see how they do not score on Houston in bunches. Here is something I read today: Week 1 was only game this year that Welker, Lloyd, Gronk & Hernandez all healthy at same time before this week. We could see a very dynamic attack from New England Sunday.
Matchup to Watch: Aqib Talib vs. Andre Johnson
This is exactly the type of game that New England acquired Talib for. He is meant to shut down the opponent’s top receiver and this week he draws Andre Johnson. If Talib can shut down Johnson than Houston loses a very big edge in this game.
My Pick:
I think New England wins this one handedly. I just feel they are a much better team and are actually more healthy than their last beat down of Houston. I am most confident picking this game.
Ravens Breakdown:
The Ravens are coming off a highly emotional win in Ray Lewis’ last home game. This is a whole different animal however. Its tough for me to imagine a scenario in which Baltimore wins unless Denver collapses and Baltimore plays at its absolute best. Two things that concern me most: Flacco’s ability to handle the pass rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dummervil and the ability of the Ravens’ receivers to separate. Both of these are well-documented weaknesses of Baltimore’s and things that Denver does very well.
Broncos Breakdown:
The way this Broncos team has been so well prepared all year I imagine the week off surely helps them. As I listed above, the Broncos have a number of matchup advantages on the field that work in their favor. They also have home field advantage in their high altitude stadium going for them as well. As you can see, I expect Denver to roll here.
Matchup to Watch: Ray Rice vs. Denver’s front seven
I listed the obvious matchups in the Ravens breakdown, but this is one that really could determine the game. Boring, since I listed him last week, but if Baltimore has any hope in winning this game it absolutely needs Rice to have a dominant game. The one small chink in Denver’s armor could be its run defense, so this is a must watch part of the game.
My Pick:
I seriously expect Denver to win this game. So much rides in their favor and I just thing they are the farm more superior team. Maybe the Ravens have another miracle for Ray up their sleeves, but I don’t see it.
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1)
Packers Breakdown:
The Packers did not really get tested last week with Webb facing them. This should be a much bigger test. The Packers are entering this game much healthier than they have been in recent weeks as all the players that are not out for the season are listed as probable on the injury report. Rodgers is playing at his highest level of the season, so everything is set up for a championship round.
49ers Breakdown:
It sounds like I am hyping the Packers, but the Niners won’t be an easy out. This team has confidence and they have already beaten the Packers this year. The caveat: that was way back in week one and much has changed for this team since then. Obviously Colin Kaepernick is the new starting quarterback, but the real question is how healthy is Justin Smith? He makes the whole defense go and without him they do not rush the passer much.
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Packers secondary.
As noted, this group is healthy for the first time in a long time. Tramon Williams has said he is itching to draw the matchup with Michael Crabtree, so that should be exciting to watch if Crabtree can continue his great play. Charles Woodson, while not the player he once was, can still get himself in position to bait young quarterbacks to make mistakes.
My Pick:
I am picking the Packers. I feel like they are the best overall team in the NFC, and having easily the best quarterback doesn’t hurt either.
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Seahawks Breakdown:
This is really a tale of two teams. For the Seahawks they are coming in as the hot wildcard team that came into the NFL playoffs on a complete roll. They have a confidence about them and they certainly wont be an easy out. Here is an underrated aspect of this game. How will Russell Wilson deal with Mike Nolan’s disguise based defense? Nolan disguises coverages very well and also brings blitzes that are difficult to read. Wilson has been holding the ball a bit too long and hasn’t sensed pressure too well the past few weeks.
Falcons Breakdown:
In this tale, the Falcons are the veteran team that has been here before. The problem is that haven’t “done that” before. This moment is extremely defining for them because they have not yet won a playoff game under the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith regime. Will this be the moment?
Matchup to Watch: Seahawks corners vs. Falcons wideouts
This is the matchup that everyone is talking about, and with good reason. These four guys are certainly all amongst the top ten in their respective positions. Whoever wins this matchup very well could win the game. Or things could break even in this matchup. We will see.
My Pick:
History shows us to pick the hot team and I am stinking with the Seahawks. This loss could be devastating to the Falcons, because this year is supposed to be different. But I just don’t see how it is.
Houston Texans (13-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Texans Breakdown:
The Texans come into this matchup hoping they do not suffer a repeat of what took place in November. What is good for Houston is they can really play the underdog roll. No one expected them to be here and no one expects them to win now that they are. Houston will need to play better than they did against the Bengals; no way Tom Brady puts up Andy Dalton’s numbers.
Patriots Breakdown:
The Patriots come into this matchup as heavy favorites, and it is easy to see why. Brady is much better than Schaub and I don’t see how they do not score on Houston in bunches. Here is something I read today: Week 1 was only game this year that Welker, Lloyd, Gronk & Hernandez all healthy at same time before this week. We could see a very dynamic attack from New England Sunday.
Matchup to Watch: Aqib Talib vs. Andre Johnson
This is exactly the type of game that New England acquired Talib for. He is meant to shut down the opponent’s top receiver and this week he draws Andre Johnson. If Talib can shut down Johnson than Houston loses a very big edge in this game.
My Pick:
I think New England wins this one handedly. I just feel they are a much better team and are actually more healthy than their last beat down of Houston. I am most confident picking this game.
