My Week 16 NFL Picks
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) at Detroit Lions (4-10)
Falcons Breakdown:
This game probably isn’t much of a push. The Falcons need to continue to show that they are a dominant team and easily putting away this struggling Lions team would be a nice way to do that. The Falcons have to stay motivated by the perceived “disrespect” being given to them.
Lions Breakdown:
The Lions look like they have given up and that does not bode well for a team many perceived as undisciplined anyways. Of course with the Lions, they are talented and could put together a nice performance at any time. However, they have not shown anything recently and I would expect that to continue.
Matchup to Watch: Calvin Johnson vs. Falcons secondary
Getting Calvin Johnson the single season receiving yardage record, this seems to be all Detroit cares about anymore. They do not have much else to play for so I see no reason for them to change that game plan. Falcon’s defense coordinator has had a tremendous year with these guys, especially defending the pass. Let’s see if he can continue that against Megatron.
My Pick:
I expect the Falcons to win, but I would not be too surprised if it is closer than many believe. Maybe I am giving the Lions too much credit, or not enough for the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
Saints Breakdown:
The Saints played what was probably their most complete game in shutting out the Bucs last week. It would be a good progress sign if they could come out and put together another nice defensive performance. I would expect to see Drew Brees build on an impressive performance from last week.
Cowboys Breakdown:
The Cowboys are coming off their best win since probably the season opener. They know they are fighting for their playoff lives here so I expect them to come out strong here. Their defense had some very encouraging moments against the Steelers and they should look to build upon that.
Matchup to Watch: Tony Romo vs. The Saints defense
Romo has played very well of late and if he goes out and has a good showing here, against a poor Saints defense, maybe the public would start to take notice. Dez Bryant did not seem to carry much ill effect of the finger injury and that is good because the Cowboys surely need him.
My Pick:
I think the Cowboys know what is at stake here, and I actually expect them to respond well. It would certainly set up an important and exciting matchup in week 17 against Washington. I do not feel comfortable with it at all, but I think the Cowboys sneak out a victory here.
Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Raiders Breakdown:
The Raiders are coming off of a win for the first time in a long time, but they only managed to score field goals. The will need to actually find the end zone this week. It is encouraging for them that they finally got Darren McFadden going last week. He topped 100 yards and looked comfortable for the first time all year. They need that to happen again.
Panthers Breakdown:
The Panthers have been playing hot lately, and are in good position to get another win here. They rush the passer well and Oakland does not have much in the way of an offensive line. Cam Newton is also clicking right now, and should take advantage of a putrid Oakland secondary.
Matchup to Watch: The “Pryor Package” vs. the Panther’s defense
Raider’s coach Dennis Allen hinted that we could see quarterback Terrelle Pryor take more snaps as the season comes to an end and I discussed in the Power Rankings why that is probably a good thing. It should be interesting to watch him against a defense in Carolina that has played well of late.
My Pick:
I expect to see the Panthers continue their recent little hot steak against the hapless Raiders. It is just unfortunate that Carolina could not play this way sooner.
Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4)*
Titans Breakdown:
The Titans barely got away from the Jets in that horrific Monday night game, so I do not expect them to prevail here. Interesting stat I heard on Chris Johnson: he finished the fewest yard for a running back that ran for a run over 90 yards in a game. Pretty telling that this team will require a big play like that to win again.
Packers Breakdown:
The Packers are clicking, but they better not get caught sleeping here. They still need to secure playoff positioning. I expect they will use this game to throttle and inferior opponent and put the NFC on notice.
Matchup to Watch: Jake Locker vs. Packers defense
This has not been the development year that the Titans have hoped for Locker. Much of that can be blamed on his extensive injuries; however, they would probably like to see him close out this season strong. This Packers defense is getting healthier, so it will be interesting watch Locker’s performance.
My Pick:
I am expecting the Packers to win pretty big here. Book it.
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Bills Breakdown:
The Bills are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks, and they are in the midst of yet another mediocre season. The best thing to say about the Bills right now is that they are being forced to give the ball to their most dynamic weapon in CJ Spiller due to injuries, pretty sad.
Dolphins Breakdown:
The Dolphins are coming off of a big win against Jacksonville and beating a divisional opponent to close the season would be a nice statement. This is also an opportunity to have Ryan Tannehill to show continued improvement.
Matchup to Watch: Tannehill’s read option vs. Bills’ defense
The rookie QB was effective in playing out of this scheme for the first time all season. The Bills were horrible in defending against it when they faced Seattle last week. There you have it.
My Pick:
The Dolphins are a young team that is trending upward. The Bills are a disappointing team trending downward. I expect the Dolphins to come out on top.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Bengals Breakdown:
Most know my feelings on the Bengals; decent team that beats up on bad teams but loses to the good ones. This is their big test. Even though the Steelers are not what they once were, the Bengals can make a statement by beating their rivals here.
Steelers Breakdown:
Pittsburgh is getting bashed left and right currently. Because of this I expect them to come out swinging here. This is a chance for them to right their season and start a run to make it into the postseason. This team is limping, but I expect Ben and company to make this interesting.
Matchup to Watch: Bengals’ pass rush vs. Steelers o-line
Injuries and ineffectiveness have wrecked the development of the Steelers new look offensive line. The Bengals pass rush, led by stellar DT Geno Atkins and the improving Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunalp, is amongst the best kept secrets in the league. These guys are young and relentless and they could be the difference in this game.
My Pick:
I won’t believe in the Bengals until I see them beat one of their archrivals (no Cleveland doesn’t count). The Steelers come out and show the NFL they aren’t dead just yet.
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
Patriots Breakdown:
The Patriots have to be heated after getting shown up by the Niners on Sunday night football. Get ready for a good old-fashioned New England butt kicking.
Jaguars Breakdown:
The Jags stink, and they do not have much to play for. I expect them to get killed here.
Matchup to Watch: Stevan Ridley’s touches
Ok that is not really a “match up”, but we saw Stevan Ridley phased out last year when he developed a fumbling problem, and we saw that happen again last week. This year the Patriots are counting on Ridley and he needs to correct this issue, or else.
My Pick:
Patriots in a blowout and this should be over by half time, if not sooner.
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
Colts Breakdown:
I have questioned how good the Colts really are, but they can show me something by blowing out the Chiefs this week. Good teams go on the road and win convincingly over the slums of the league like Kansas City. Lets find out if the Colts are worthy.
Chiefs Breakdown:
The Chiefs seem to be right back to normal ever since their emotional victory over Carolina two weeks ago. They do not have much to play for, and amid reports that Pioli and Romeo Crennel have already been told they will not return next year I can’t see this team putting forth much effort in this contest.
Matchup to Watch: Colt’s running backs vs. the Chief’s defensive front
IF the Chiefs have done anything right this year, its been their front seven. Dontari Poe has anchored well at times, while the linebackers have been playmakers. For the Colts you would like to see this running game take a step forward, because they will need it in the playoffs.
My Pick:
Only a fool would pick the Chiefs. Andrew Luck should come out and show everyone that he is capable of having a turnover free outing.
Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)
Redskins Breakdown:
Everything seems to be clicking for the Skins right now. This team has the looks of a squad that believes in itself and could run the table and get into the playoffs. They are getting hot at the right time and I am sure if RG3 plays this week he be motivated and really want to make everyone forget about Kirk Cousins.
Eagles Breakdown:
The Eagles get LeSean McCoy back this week, but I am not sure that will make much difference. This team is still not very good and I do not see them being able to slow the Skins down. There only hope is that Nick Foles plays like he did in their win against Tampa Bay.
Matchup to Watch: Ryan Kerrigan vs. the Eagles’ offensive tackles
Kerrigan has slumped a little in his second year, most likely because he does not have Brian Orakpo to take attention off of him. He has picked up his play of late, and helped Rob Jackson emerge as well. It would be great to see him dominate this weak Philly front line in the weeks prior to the playoffs.
My Pick:
It will not be the domination we saw last month, but I still expect Washington to topple the Eagles.
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
Rams Breakdown:
The Rams didn’t put out a great game against the Vikings, especially defensively. However, this could be an opportunity to get well here, as I will detail later how one of their greatest strengths is Tampa Bay’s weakness.
Buccaneers Breakdown:
The Bucs have taken a big nosedive from being a fringe playoff team, to losers of four straight. Josh Freeman especially has regressed from earlier in the year. I do not expect him to trend upward here either.
Matchup to Watch: Rams’ defensive line vs. Bucs o-line
The Rams have a stout, young, and relentless defensive line. They can really get after the passer especially well. The Buccaneers offensive line on the other hand is riddled with injuries and the pass protection has suffered as a result. This is a huge mismatch in favor of the Rams.
My Pick:
This game is tough to call as both teams feel middle of the road to me. However, Tampa has such bad mojo these days that I cannot pick them in this game. I expect the Rams to come away with a win.
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2)
Vikings Breakdown:
Its AP or bust for these guys. Good thing he is playing at an otherworldly level or they may be in trouble. Naturally I don’t expect much out of Christian Ponder so Peterson will need to bust a few big runs if these guys hope to win.
Texans Breakdown:
The Texans can get closer to the top seed in the AFC with a win here so expect their A-game. JJ Watt needs 3.5 sacks to break the sack record and it is quite possible that he could get it in this game.
Matchup to Watch: Adrian Peterson vs. JJ Watt
Both of these guys are having all time great seasons and are approaching record numbers. They could actually cancel each other out here in this game a little. The Texans are fifth against the run so it they could be the ones to finally put the clamps on Peterson, and the Vikings run so much that Watt may not have enough pass rush chances. These guys are phenomenal though so they could both conceivably still dominate.
My Pick:
I am picking the Texans, but if AP gets going and has another dominating game, the Vikings could surprise.
San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8)
Chargers Breakdown:
Not much to see here. San Diego has clearly packed it in after watching their lack of effort against Carolina last week.
Jets Breakdown:
Greg McElroy gets his chance to show he can play. I expect a conservative game plan from the Jets here, but I also do not expect McElroy to turn the ball over left and right like another Jets QB was.
Matchup to Watch: Greg McElroy vs. Chargers defense
I know I am hammering on him here, but it should be emphasized what a huge opportunity this is for McElroy. If he plays well here he can prove that he is a strong number two QB going forward. Doing so pretty much sets him for life.
My Pick:
I am actually going to pick the Jets here. The Chargers do not have much to play for and neither do the Jets, but I expect McElroy to come out hungry in this matchup.
Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3)
Browns Breakdown:
The Browns loss against the Redskins was very disconcerting. Up to that point they had been playing well, so perhaps they can recapture some momentum. Trent Richardson could have a nice game, but I cant imagine Cleveland being too competitive in this.
Broncos Breakdown:
Everything is going right for Denver and they certainly look like a super bowl favorite. The emergence of Knowshon Moreno had made Peyton Manning almost seem like an after thought, but I am sure Manning is licking his chops after watching a rookie backup tear up this Browns team.
Matchup to Watch: Knowshon Moreno vs. Browns defense
Moreno has come on very strong and it has completely shocked me because he has been terrible prior to this. Given he gets a ton of carries and everyone wants to stop Peyton Manning first and foremost. I am excited to watch him against this stop unit.
My Pick:
Peyton Manning good, Browns bad. Broncos win easily.
New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Giants Breakdown:
Everyone knows the narrative on the Giants and this should be time of the year when they actually start to play well. They better, because if they lose this week they can probably kiss the post-season good bye. This would be a good week to get rookie David Wilson going, as the Ravens have been less than stellar against the run all year.
Ravens Breakdown:
The Ravens have been playing like hot garbage for three weeks now and their changing coordinators did not help the offense. They need to run the ball with Ray Rice and they may actually be a good team again by doing so. Flacco needs the pressure taken off of him, like…yesterday.
Matchup to Watch: Joe Flacco vs. the Giants pass rush
Call it a competition of two underperformers. The Giants pass rush was supposed to be a thing of legends, but it has really fallen off a cliff. Flacco seems to be at his best when he has a clean pocket to scan the fields and make good decisions. It would also help his receivers, who cannot separate from man coverage to save their lives. Lets see which underperformer corrects their ails this week.
My Pick:
I have learned not to go against the Giants late in the season, but they are really pushing it this year. I am picking them here, but I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to either of these teams.
Chicago Bears (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (5-9)
Bears Breakdown:
This could be the get-well game the Bears need. They have to win here because their playoff hopes are fading fast. We know their offensive line will let them down, but this could be the game that their defense gets back to standards.
Cardinals Breakdown:
I am calling that win last week a fluke. There is no reason to believe they can expect Beanie Wells to score three times again, and without that they probably don’t win. Do any of you expect Ryan Lindely to play well? Didn’t think so.
Matchup to Watch: Both d-lines against both o-lines
These may be the two worst offensive lines in the league, and both defenses are littered with studs. We could see about ten sacks between these two teams this week.
My Pick:
I expect the Bears to get right in this game. I also think the Cardinals are pitiful. Should be fun to watch!
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)*
49ers Breakdown:
Colin Kaepernick is awesome. When was the last time we have seen a 49ers quarterback throwing for four touchdowns? With this kid the sky is the limit for this team, but he will face stiff test against this defense (depending 0n suspensions).
Seahawks Breakdown:
Russell Wilson is also awesome. He hasn’t had a bad game since midseason and he is also improving every week. Marshawn Lynch is also averaging a RIDICULOUS 11.5 yards per carry these last two weeks. This team can now win on the back of its offense along with a stud defense.
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Seahawks secondary
This is mostly due to the fact that we do not know what the secondary for Seattle will look like. They are already without Brandon Browner and if Richard Sherman loses his suspension appeal he could miss this game as well. If he is out Kaepernick could make some serious noise and it could change the complexion of this game. Missing two studs would be hard for this secondary.
My Pick:
I love both of these teams, and how they are playing and neither would shock me if they went to the super bowl. I am picking Seattle because they are at home and are riding high, but if Sherman is out I wont be shocked if the Niners win.
Falcons Breakdown:
This game probably isn’t much of a push. The Falcons need to continue to show that they are a dominant team and easily putting away this struggling Lions team would be a nice way to do that. The Falcons have to stay motivated by the perceived “disrespect” being given to them.
Lions Breakdown:
The Lions look like they have given up and that does not bode well for a team many perceived as undisciplined anyways. Of course with the Lions, they are talented and could put together a nice performance at any time. However, they have not shown anything recently and I would expect that to continue.
Matchup to Watch: Calvin Johnson vs. Falcons secondary
Getting Calvin Johnson the single season receiving yardage record, this seems to be all Detroit cares about anymore. They do not have much else to play for so I see no reason for them to change that game plan. Falcon’s defense coordinator has had a tremendous year with these guys, especially defending the pass. Let’s see if he can continue that against Megatron.
My Pick:
I expect the Falcons to win, but I would not be too surprised if it is closer than many believe. Maybe I am giving the Lions too much credit, or not enough for the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
Saints Breakdown:
The Saints played what was probably their most complete game in shutting out the Bucs last week. It would be a good progress sign if they could come out and put together another nice defensive performance. I would expect to see Drew Brees build on an impressive performance from last week.
Cowboys Breakdown:
The Cowboys are coming off their best win since probably the season opener. They know they are fighting for their playoff lives here so I expect them to come out strong here. Their defense had some very encouraging moments against the Steelers and they should look to build upon that.
Matchup to Watch: Tony Romo vs. The Saints defense
Romo has played very well of late and if he goes out and has a good showing here, against a poor Saints defense, maybe the public would start to take notice. Dez Bryant did not seem to carry much ill effect of the finger injury and that is good because the Cowboys surely need him.
My Pick:
I think the Cowboys know what is at stake here, and I actually expect them to respond well. It would certainly set up an important and exciting matchup in week 17 against Washington. I do not feel comfortable with it at all, but I think the Cowboys sneak out a victory here.
Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Raiders Breakdown:
The Raiders are coming off of a win for the first time in a long time, but they only managed to score field goals. The will need to actually find the end zone this week. It is encouraging for them that they finally got Darren McFadden going last week. He topped 100 yards and looked comfortable for the first time all year. They need that to happen again.
Panthers Breakdown:
The Panthers have been playing hot lately, and are in good position to get another win here. They rush the passer well and Oakland does not have much in the way of an offensive line. Cam Newton is also clicking right now, and should take advantage of a putrid Oakland secondary.
Matchup to Watch: The “Pryor Package” vs. the Panther’s defense
Raider’s coach Dennis Allen hinted that we could see quarterback Terrelle Pryor take more snaps as the season comes to an end and I discussed in the Power Rankings why that is probably a good thing. It should be interesting to watch him against a defense in Carolina that has played well of late.
My Pick:
I expect to see the Panthers continue their recent little hot steak against the hapless Raiders. It is just unfortunate that Carolina could not play this way sooner.
Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4)*
Titans Breakdown:
The Titans barely got away from the Jets in that horrific Monday night game, so I do not expect them to prevail here. Interesting stat I heard on Chris Johnson: he finished the fewest yard for a running back that ran for a run over 90 yards in a game. Pretty telling that this team will require a big play like that to win again.
Packers Breakdown:
The Packers are clicking, but they better not get caught sleeping here. They still need to secure playoff positioning. I expect they will use this game to throttle and inferior opponent and put the NFC on notice.
Matchup to Watch: Jake Locker vs. Packers defense
This has not been the development year that the Titans have hoped for Locker. Much of that can be blamed on his extensive injuries; however, they would probably like to see him close out this season strong. This Packers defense is getting healthier, so it will be interesting watch Locker’s performance.
My Pick:
I am expecting the Packers to win pretty big here. Book it.
Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Bills Breakdown:
The Bills are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks, and they are in the midst of yet another mediocre season. The best thing to say about the Bills right now is that they are being forced to give the ball to their most dynamic weapon in CJ Spiller due to injuries, pretty sad.
Dolphins Breakdown:
The Dolphins are coming off of a big win against Jacksonville and beating a divisional opponent to close the season would be a nice statement. This is also an opportunity to have Ryan Tannehill to show continued improvement.
Matchup to Watch: Tannehill’s read option vs. Bills’ defense
The rookie QB was effective in playing out of this scheme for the first time all season. The Bills were horrible in defending against it when they faced Seattle last week. There you have it.
My Pick:
The Dolphins are a young team that is trending upward. The Bills are a disappointing team trending downward. I expect the Dolphins to come out on top.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Bengals Breakdown:
Most know my feelings on the Bengals; decent team that beats up on bad teams but loses to the good ones. This is their big test. Even though the Steelers are not what they once were, the Bengals can make a statement by beating their rivals here.
Steelers Breakdown:
Pittsburgh is getting bashed left and right currently. Because of this I expect them to come out swinging here. This is a chance for them to right their season and start a run to make it into the postseason. This team is limping, but I expect Ben and company to make this interesting.
Matchup to Watch: Bengals’ pass rush vs. Steelers o-line
Injuries and ineffectiveness have wrecked the development of the Steelers new look offensive line. The Bengals pass rush, led by stellar DT Geno Atkins and the improving Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunalp, is amongst the best kept secrets in the league. These guys are young and relentless and they could be the difference in this game.
My Pick:
I won’t believe in the Bengals until I see them beat one of their archrivals (no Cleveland doesn’t count). The Steelers come out and show the NFL they aren’t dead just yet.
New England Patriots (10-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
Patriots Breakdown:
The Patriots have to be heated after getting shown up by the Niners on Sunday night football. Get ready for a good old-fashioned New England butt kicking.
Jaguars Breakdown:
The Jags stink, and they do not have much to play for. I expect them to get killed here.
Matchup to Watch: Stevan Ridley’s touches
Ok that is not really a “match up”, but we saw Stevan Ridley phased out last year when he developed a fumbling problem, and we saw that happen again last week. This year the Patriots are counting on Ridley and he needs to correct this issue, or else.
My Pick:
Patriots in a blowout and this should be over by half time, if not sooner.
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
Colts Breakdown:
I have questioned how good the Colts really are, but they can show me something by blowing out the Chiefs this week. Good teams go on the road and win convincingly over the slums of the league like Kansas City. Lets find out if the Colts are worthy.
Chiefs Breakdown:
The Chiefs seem to be right back to normal ever since their emotional victory over Carolina two weeks ago. They do not have much to play for, and amid reports that Pioli and Romeo Crennel have already been told they will not return next year I can’t see this team putting forth much effort in this contest.
Matchup to Watch: Colt’s running backs vs. the Chief’s defensive front
IF the Chiefs have done anything right this year, its been their front seven. Dontari Poe has anchored well at times, while the linebackers have been playmakers. For the Colts you would like to see this running game take a step forward, because they will need it in the playoffs.
My Pick:
Only a fool would pick the Chiefs. Andrew Luck should come out and show everyone that he is capable of having a turnover free outing.
Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)
Redskins Breakdown:
Everything seems to be clicking for the Skins right now. This team has the looks of a squad that believes in itself and could run the table and get into the playoffs. They are getting hot at the right time and I am sure if RG3 plays this week he be motivated and really want to make everyone forget about Kirk Cousins.
Eagles Breakdown:
The Eagles get LeSean McCoy back this week, but I am not sure that will make much difference. This team is still not very good and I do not see them being able to slow the Skins down. There only hope is that Nick Foles plays like he did in their win against Tampa Bay.
Matchup to Watch: Ryan Kerrigan vs. the Eagles’ offensive tackles
Kerrigan has slumped a little in his second year, most likely because he does not have Brian Orakpo to take attention off of him. He has picked up his play of late, and helped Rob Jackson emerge as well. It would be great to see him dominate this weak Philly front line in the weeks prior to the playoffs.
My Pick:
It will not be the domination we saw last month, but I still expect Washington to topple the Eagles.
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
Rams Breakdown:
The Rams didn’t put out a great game against the Vikings, especially defensively. However, this could be an opportunity to get well here, as I will detail later how one of their greatest strengths is Tampa Bay’s weakness.
Buccaneers Breakdown:
The Bucs have taken a big nosedive from being a fringe playoff team, to losers of four straight. Josh Freeman especially has regressed from earlier in the year. I do not expect him to trend upward here either.
Matchup to Watch: Rams’ defensive line vs. Bucs o-line
The Rams have a stout, young, and relentless defensive line. They can really get after the passer especially well. The Buccaneers offensive line on the other hand is riddled with injuries and the pass protection has suffered as a result. This is a huge mismatch in favor of the Rams.
My Pick:
This game is tough to call as both teams feel middle of the road to me. However, Tampa has such bad mojo these days that I cannot pick them in this game. I expect the Rams to come away with a win.
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2)
Vikings Breakdown:
Its AP or bust for these guys. Good thing he is playing at an otherworldly level or they may be in trouble. Naturally I don’t expect much out of Christian Ponder so Peterson will need to bust a few big runs if these guys hope to win.
Texans Breakdown:
The Texans can get closer to the top seed in the AFC with a win here so expect their A-game. JJ Watt needs 3.5 sacks to break the sack record and it is quite possible that he could get it in this game.
Matchup to Watch: Adrian Peterson vs. JJ Watt
Both of these guys are having all time great seasons and are approaching record numbers. They could actually cancel each other out here in this game a little. The Texans are fifth against the run so it they could be the ones to finally put the clamps on Peterson, and the Vikings run so much that Watt may not have enough pass rush chances. These guys are phenomenal though so they could both conceivably still dominate.
My Pick:
I am picking the Texans, but if AP gets going and has another dominating game, the Vikings could surprise.
San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8)
Chargers Breakdown:
Not much to see here. San Diego has clearly packed it in after watching their lack of effort against Carolina last week.
Jets Breakdown:
Greg McElroy gets his chance to show he can play. I expect a conservative game plan from the Jets here, but I also do not expect McElroy to turn the ball over left and right like another Jets QB was.
Matchup to Watch: Greg McElroy vs. Chargers defense
I know I am hammering on him here, but it should be emphasized what a huge opportunity this is for McElroy. If he plays well here he can prove that he is a strong number two QB going forward. Doing so pretty much sets him for life.
My Pick:
I am actually going to pick the Jets here. The Chargers do not have much to play for and neither do the Jets, but I expect McElroy to come out hungry in this matchup.
Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3)
Browns Breakdown:
The Browns loss against the Redskins was very disconcerting. Up to that point they had been playing well, so perhaps they can recapture some momentum. Trent Richardson could have a nice game, but I cant imagine Cleveland being too competitive in this.
Broncos Breakdown:
Everything is going right for Denver and they certainly look like a super bowl favorite. The emergence of Knowshon Moreno had made Peyton Manning almost seem like an after thought, but I am sure Manning is licking his chops after watching a rookie backup tear up this Browns team.
Matchup to Watch: Knowshon Moreno vs. Browns defense
Moreno has come on very strong and it has completely shocked me because he has been terrible prior to this. Given he gets a ton of carries and everyone wants to stop Peyton Manning first and foremost. I am excited to watch him against this stop unit.
My Pick:
Peyton Manning good, Browns bad. Broncos win easily.
New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Giants Breakdown:
Everyone knows the narrative on the Giants and this should be time of the year when they actually start to play well. They better, because if they lose this week they can probably kiss the post-season good bye. This would be a good week to get rookie David Wilson going, as the Ravens have been less than stellar against the run all year.
Ravens Breakdown:
The Ravens have been playing like hot garbage for three weeks now and their changing coordinators did not help the offense. They need to run the ball with Ray Rice and they may actually be a good team again by doing so. Flacco needs the pressure taken off of him, like…yesterday.
Matchup to Watch: Joe Flacco vs. the Giants pass rush
Call it a competition of two underperformers. The Giants pass rush was supposed to be a thing of legends, but it has really fallen off a cliff. Flacco seems to be at his best when he has a clean pocket to scan the fields and make good decisions. It would also help his receivers, who cannot separate from man coverage to save their lives. Lets see which underperformer corrects their ails this week.
My Pick:
I have learned not to go against the Giants late in the season, but they are really pushing it this year. I am picking them here, but I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to either of these teams.
Chicago Bears (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (5-9)
Bears Breakdown:
This could be the get-well game the Bears need. They have to win here because their playoff hopes are fading fast. We know their offensive line will let them down, but this could be the game that their defense gets back to standards.
Cardinals Breakdown:
I am calling that win last week a fluke. There is no reason to believe they can expect Beanie Wells to score three times again, and without that they probably don’t win. Do any of you expect Ryan Lindely to play well? Didn’t think so.
Matchup to Watch: Both d-lines against both o-lines
These may be the two worst offensive lines in the league, and both defenses are littered with studs. We could see about ten sacks between these two teams this week.
My Pick:
I expect the Bears to get right in this game. I also think the Cardinals are pitiful. Should be fun to watch!
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)*
49ers Breakdown:
Colin Kaepernick is awesome. When was the last time we have seen a 49ers quarterback throwing for four touchdowns? With this kid the sky is the limit for this team, but he will face stiff test against this defense (depending 0n suspensions).
Seahawks Breakdown:
Russell Wilson is also awesome. He hasn’t had a bad game since midseason and he is also improving every week. Marshawn Lynch is also averaging a RIDICULOUS 11.5 yards per carry these last two weeks. This team can now win on the back of its offense along with a stud defense.
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Seahawks secondary
This is mostly due to the fact that we do not know what the secondary for Seattle will look like. They are already without Brandon Browner and if Richard Sherman loses his suspension appeal he could miss this game as well. If he is out Kaepernick could make some serious noise and it could change the complexion of this game. Missing two studs would be hard for this secondary.
My Pick:
I love both of these teams, and how they are playing and neither would shock me if they went to the super bowl. I am picking Seattle because they are at home and are riding high, but if Sherman is out I wont be shocked if the Niners win.