Week Eleven NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Thursday Night Game:

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Matchup to Watch: T.Y. Hilton vs. Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty

• The Titans pair of cornerbacks may just be the best duo in the NFL this season; Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rank Verner and McCourty second and third, respectively, amongst cornerbacks. Verner, in particular has been a pleasant surprise for the Titans who did not feel he would be a good fit for their new man coverage schemes prior to this season. Instead, Verner has excelled and responded with his best season, with quarterbacks registering an NFL low 23.8 passer rating when targeting him. Verner spends an extensive amount of time in the slot when opposing offenses field three wide receiver sets, and that will likely get him matched up against T.Y. Hilton a ton in this game. Verner is exactly the type of corner that can give Hilton fits in coverage. If Verner plays physical press-man coverage against Hilton, the young wideout probably will not matchhis lofty statics of the past two games, and if Hilton is limited this offense does not have anyone else to go to. Check out last night's "The Eye in the Sky" article for an extended breakdown of T.Y. Hilton’s limitations as a player, and how the Verner and McCourty can erase him from the game plan. 

My Pick: Titans

• The Colts offense is in dire straits right now, and the Titans might have the perfect defense to shut them down. Titans’ defensive tackle, Jurrell Casey, is having a great season, and is perfectly capable of dominating the interior of the Colts offensive line, while the rest of this team generates enough pass rush to give the Colts edge “protectors” fits and get after Andrew Luck. And if the cornerbacks can take away T.Y. Hilton, Luck and this offense just do not have any other reliable options to turn to right now, unless Trent Richardson magically turns things around in the ground game. Not likely. Of course, the Colts have the quarterback advantage  and that is always a huge x-factor, but the Titans just matchup with the Colts so well in so many other areas. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can limit mistakes, and play a clean game, the home team is a safe bet to obtain a victory over an overrated Colts team. 

Sunday Games:

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Matchup to Watch: Santonio Holmes vs. Stephon Gilmore

• Gilmore played great as a rookie last year, and looked like he was on the verge of becoming the next shutdown corner in the NFL. Since then, Gilmore has missed the beginning of this season with an injury, and has looked flat out bad since he has returned to the field. Gilmore has been beat by receivers with regularity and has particularly struggled in man-to-man coverage. Santonio Holmes is also coming into this game having just returned from an injury, but is poised to take back the top spot in the Jets thin receiving core. Holmes has been dynamic in his limited time on the field, and will likely draw coverage from Gilmore. It will be interesting to see which player can return to form and take advantage of the other.

My Pick: Jets

• The Jets have certainly struggled on the road this season, and are one of the hardest teams to predict what they will do one a week-to-week basis. However, the Bills did not look great against the Steelers last week and E.J. Manuel looked pretty rusty. Rex Ryan’s defense will give the rookie plenty of trouble on Sunday. 

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
Matchup to Watch: Ravens running backs vs. Bears front seven

• Here is another matchup of two teams surprising weaknesses. The Ravens have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of running the football, while the Bears injuries have left them incapable of stopping the run. Something has to give with this matchup right? Could the Ravens finally put together some semblance of a running game, or will the Bears finally look like they can stop the run with such a weak running team coming to town? No matter how his offensive line plays, if Ray Rice cannot get anything going in this matchup, you can probably stick a fork in him.

My Pick: Bears                                           

• I trust the Bears to win the matchup to watch, and their offense can simply move the ball better than the Ravens. With almost everyone on the Ravens offense underperforming, they will not be able to take advantage of the Bears defensive deficiencies.

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Matchup to Watch: Marvin Jones vs. Buster Skrine

• Everyone will be talking about A.J. Green versus Joe Haden, but how Cincinnati’s other receivers play might have the bigger effect on the game. Andy Dalton gets too zeroed in on Green but with Haden locked up with him, the quarterback will need to go elsewhere and it will be up to players like Marvin Jones to give him options. Jones was tearing things up the past few weeks, but had a very quiet game last week against the Ravens. He needs to step up and take advantage of players like Skrine in the Browns secondary

My Pick: Browns

• This may surprise you, but the Browns are playing better than the Bengals right now. Jason Campbell will need to be able to navigate the Bengals pass rush, something he has struggled with throughout his career, to continue his solid play. The Browns are ready to make some noise in this division. 
  

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Matchup to Watch: Riley Cooper vs. Redskins cornerbacks

• Cooper is no longer just the butt of everyone’s jokes after his “incident” over the summer. With Nick Foles behind center, Cooper has produced numbers as good as any wide receiver in the league over that stretch. Contrary to popular narrative, Cooper is a big, fast, and athletic wide receiver who may finally be in an offense that suits his strengths. Can any of the Redskins cornerbacks slow Cooper off his torrid pace? It is pretty doubtful. DeAngelo Hall, Josh Wilson, and especially rookie David Amerson have all been woeful in coverage this season. The Redskins better not assign too much attention to DeSean Jackson, or Cooper will beat up single coverage. Amerson needs to step up, because he is the only guy with the size and speed combination to defend a player with similar measurable in Cooper. 

My Pick: Eagles

• Will the Eagles finally be able to win a game at home? They should be able to do it on Sunday. Almost all of the matchups favor the Eagles, as they should be able to do whatever they want on offense against the porous Redskins defense and Cedric Thornton, Fletcher Cox and company have been very good at shutting down opposing running games. If the Redskins cannot get Alfred Morris going, no way they can keep up with the Eagles offense. 
  

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Matchup to Watch: Lamarr Houston vs. Duane Brown

• The Texans had a lot of trouble with another big, athletic defensive end in the Cardinals Calais Campbell in their loss last week. Houston, while not in Campbell’s elite class, is a great player in his own right. The Raiders would be wise to move Houston inside the defensive line on passing downs and try to get some interior pressure on Keenum, though he impressed with how he handled that last week. Having him inside would also keep him away from elite left tackle, Duane Brown. The Raiders have slipped in their defensive performance recently, and they need Houston to step up an lead a resurgence.

My Pick: Texans

• Case Keenum has been playing well against much better defenses than the one the Raiders have. Even though Arian Foster is done for the season, Ben Tate and Dennis Johnson should be enough to carry the load. It is looking more and more like undrafted quarterback Matt McGloin will be starting for the Raiders on Sunday, which does not exactly inspire confidence. 
  

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Matchup to Watch: Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Cardinals front seven

• MJD turned in his best game of the season, even though he only averaged around two yards per carry, last week. Jones-Drew has suffered through some of the worst run blocking in the NFL, no matter what the starting five combination has been on the offensive line. Despite his block, he still managed to run hard and will the Jags to their first victory against a stout front seven of the Titans. Can he do the same against another dominant group in the Cardinals?

My Pick: Cardinals

• This game is by no means a gimme for the Cardinals. The Jaguars should have much more confidence now that they actually have a win, and the Cardinals have to travel to the east coast. Nevertheless, the more talented team should get the win.

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Matchup to Watch: Ndamukong Suh vs. Fernando Velasco

• Velasco has been a very disappointing replacement for Pouncey at center, and is coming off a disastrous game against Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus of the Bills. Both are great players, but Suh is an elite talent and has wrecked a number of offensive game plans this season. The Steelers need Velasco to play to the level he showed with the Titans last season to keep Suh at bay. Roethlisberger is pretty tired of being hit at the alarming rate he has been and their rookie running back needs some holes to run through.

My Pick: Lions

• This could be a tough game for the Lions, depending on what Steelers defense shows up. The Steelers have played lights out against rookie quarterbacks like E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith, but we saw how Tom Brady dissected them two weeks ago. The Lions have a dynamic and diverse passing attack with Matthew Stafford at the helm, so the Steelers could be in trouble. 
  

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
Matchup to Watch: Darrelle Revis vs. Roddy White

• White looks to finally be getting healthy for the first time all season, while on the other side of the field, the Buccaneers are finally using Revis correctly for the first time all season. After they let Harry Douglas tear them up last time they met, the Bucs will surely assign Revis to the Falcons true top receiver now that he is back in the lineup. 

My Pick: Buccaneers

• Shocking yes? It should not be. The Buccaneers have talent; that has never been the issue. You could even make the argument that with all the injuries on the Falcons The Bucs are the more talented and better team in this game.

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Matchup to Watch: Cameron Wake vs. King Dunlap

• King Dunlap has been surprisingly effective as the Chargers, but he still has some struggles in pass protection. Cameron Wake was far too quiet against the Bucs last Monday night; perhaps he elected not to show up along with the rest of his teammates. The Dolphins need him to rev up his level of play against Dunlap if they want to avoid a full on slide in the second half of the season. 

My Pick: Chargers

• This is essentially an elimination game; whoever loses on Sunday will find it very tough to make it into the wild card race in the AFC. The Chargers are the better team right now after the Dolphins embarrassing showing on Monday night. 
  

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3) 
Matchup to Watch: Cameron Jordan vs. Alex Boone

• Cameron Jordan started the year on fire, but cooled off a bit during the month of October. No matter, he was right back to dominating level against Dallas last Sunday night. Everyone knows the 49ers offense has to go through the running game, and that means their offensive line needs to play much better than it did against Carolina. Alex Boone in particular had plenty of struggles, and was taken advantage of by Dwan Edwards on several occasions. Edwards is not where near the player Jordan is, and if Boone does not up his game, there could be a ton of trouble for the 49ers offense.

My Pick: Saints

• Things are not looking so good for the 49ers right now. Coming off a big loss at home to the Panthers, they have all but lost their chance to unseat the Seahawks for the division, and this team needs a win just to keep up in the very competitive NFC wild card picture. It is just way too hard to envision them keeping pace with the Saints offense in the Super Dome given their struggles on that side of the ball and of their young quarterback.

Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
Matchup to Watch: Packers defensive line vs. Giants offensive line

• The Giants may have finally found a consistent rushing attack with Andre Brown leading the way. However, he needs his offensive line to hold up their end of the bargain, something they have not done for any of the other backs this season. The Packers three man front of primarily B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, and Johnny Jolly provides over 1,000 pounds of mass and can be a handful for linemen if their all playing their best, something that has not been happening the last two weeks with LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte feasting against them. Expect the Packers to load these three up together often and try to force Eli Manning to carry the offense.

My Pick: Packers

• Scott Tolzien might represent an upgrade on Seneca Wallace, and did not look too bad against the Eagles last week, the Giants defense is another unit that has steeped up recently, and they could give Tolzien trouble. Tough game to pick, but it is just hard to trust Eli Manning and the Giants passing offense right now. 
  

Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1) 
Matchup to Watch: Adrian Peterson vs. Seahawks front seven

• The Seahawks have struggled to stop the run recently with Red Bryant not being one hundred percent. About the only shot that the Vikings have to go to Seattle win this game, and most games really, is for Adrian Peterson to go off. The Seahawks have shown some cracks in their front seven so maybe…

My Pick: Seahawks

• No need to get cute. With their offensive linemen returning and Percy Harvin primed to make his debut against a disastrous Minnesota defense, this one could get ugly quick. Let’s just hope the Seahawks learned their lesson about looking past bad teams after narrowly escaping against the Buccaneers a few weeks ago.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)
Matchup to Watch: Chiefs cornerbacks vs. Broncos receivers

• This is the matchup everyone has been dying to see since the season started. The Chiefs have one of the best group of corners in the NFL top to bottom, while the Broncos have an unbelievably deep three wide set. You have to love a matchup of strength versus strength and just waiting to see who breaks first. The Broncos are great at getting Demaryius Thomas on quick screens so that may help them not to deal with Sean Smith. As good as rookie pick up Marcus Cooper has been for the Chiefs, can he matchup in the slot versus Wes Welker, or will the Chiefs use Brandon Flowers to defend Welker? It will be a treat to watch six players who have played at, or at least near for some, a Pro Bowl level all season. 
  

My Pick: Broncos

• If this game were in Arrowhead, the Chiefs likely would have been the pick. The Broncos might be the better all around team, but the Chiefs unbelievable pass rush versus a beat up offensive line amongst that crowd noise would have given a hobbled Payton Manning fits. As it stand, this game is in Denver, and that altitude might be the edge the Broncos need to escape with a win. Make no mistake; this is going to be a really tough game for both teams. If the defense can manage to keep Peyton Manning under thirty points, can Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense score enough points to keep up? Jamal Charles will need to have his best day for that to happen. Nothing is a given in this game.
  

Monday Night Game:

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)

Matchup to Watch: Jonathan Stewart vs. the Patriots front seven

• With all the injuries right up the gut of their defense, the Patriots have become one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run. Jonathan Stewart has looked surprisingly spry since returning from the PUP list and if he is fully healthy, he is the best option in the Panthers deep backfield. Bill Belichick always tries to take away what an opponent does best, and he will probably do everything possible to make life difficult for Cam Newton, especially on the ground. The Panthers probably need one of their running backs to step up and give them a consistent, sustaining rushing attack to keep the game on their script and so Newton can take shots off easy reads and play action. Stewart may be their best option to accomplish that goal. Let’s see if he can have some success against a weak Patriots front. 
  

My Pick: Patriots

• Call this a pick with the head and not the heart. The Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL right now, and they are coming home after the biggest win of the Ron Rivera era. However, the Patriots are coming off of a bye, and Belichick probably has some great stuff cooked up fro Cam Newton to confuse the young quarterback who has not played his best of late. This game should be close, but right now, you have to trust Tom Brady and company coming off a bye just more. One x-factor could be the Panthers stud linebacker, Luke Kuechly. One of the best coverage linebackers in the league, he could be key in shutting down Rob Gronkowski, and we have seen how this offense struggles when he is not available. 
  

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