Week Five Picks

Week Five NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Matchup to Watch: Kiko Alonso vs. Jordan Cameron

These are two young players who have really broken out and come on strong to start the season. Alonso is a rookie linebacker the Bills chose in the second round of April’s draft. Alonso asserted himself as a starter almost immediately and has played well so far, particularly in coverage, snagging four interceptions. Jordan Cameron has emerged as a top five tight end for the Browns this season under the guidance of the tight end whispers, Norv Turner and Rob Chudskinski. Cameron has great hands and ridiculous athleticism, but his best work has come in the red zone where as long as the ball has been close to him, he has caught it for a score. The Bills will need Alonso to be a part of the equation to shut down Cameron, and maybe even come up with another one of those big plays.

My Pick: Browns

It is well documented I hate the quality of football that gets put out on Thursday night, but this week I think this game is rather straight forward to pick. The Browns are at home, and while that is always a great situation for the Thursday night games I bet playing in front of what is surely a reinvigorated Browns fan base will be good for this team. The Browns are also playing better football right now, even though both teams won last week. The Bills defense is way to beat up and I bet Cleveland moves the ball on them with some ease, and on the other side of the field, I do not think E.J. Manuel or his injured running backs will find much room against a top five Cleveland defense.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)
Matchup to Watch: Kendall Wright vs. Dunta Robinson

Dunta Robinson fell off in Atlanta last year, and things have not been much better since coming to Kansas City in the offseason. Robinson has been the Chiefs slot corner this season and he has been torched repeatedly week in an week out; a rare weak spot on this defense. Kendall was known as a big play threat coming out of Baylor, but he has mostly developed into a dependable slot receiver with a low YPC average. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not afraid to pull the trigger, and if I were him, I would try to hit Wright on some big plays from the slot against the struggling Robinson.

My Pick: Chiefs

Both of these teams have been surprisingly impressive thus far in the season. However, with Jake Locker out, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in for the Titans, I trust the Chiefs to limit mistakes and turnovers more. Taking road teams in evenly matched games is always a risk, but I’ll roll with the Chiefs this week.

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Matchup to Watch: Dion Jordan vs. Eugene Monroe

Baltimore will get a good first look at their new left tackle when they travel to Miami. Star pass rusher, Cameron Wake, may not play and that means the ultra-athletic rookie, Dion Jordan, could do battle with Monroe. Athletic players with great speed were just the type to give Bryant McKinnie a ton of trouble, so the Ravens will be hoping Monroe can hold down the impressive rookie to a very quiet outing.

My Pick: Dolphins

I am really having trouble buying into the Ravens offense right now, and I doubt Monroe solves everything in one week. Their running game is not a strength right now, and the lack of weapons in the passing game is really holding back Joe Flacco. I worry about Ryan Tannehill against a defense that seems to only be getting better, but the Dolphins are at home and I think they win here.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)
Matchup to Watch: Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Rams front seven

The Jags organization seems to view MJD as part of their long-term plan, but he has not exactly done much this year to warrant that kind of confidence. He has a shot to turn that around against a Rams defense that has been utterly pathetic against the run, despite a ton of talent at linebacker and along the defensive line. If it doesn’t happen for Jones-Drew this week, well it probably won’t ever happen for him.

My Pick: Rams

I think my readers know just how disgusted I am with this Rams team that I projected big things for. With that being sad, they are at home, playing the Jaguars, so they will sneak out a win here.

 

New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
Matchup to Watch: Tyler Eifert vs. Patriots linebackers

With Andy Dalton consistently zeroed in on A.J. Green, Eifert hasn’t exactly had the chance to light the world on fire or anything. This week against the Patriots we will probably see Bill Belichick throw out a similar defensive game pan to the one that helped shut down Julio Jones last week. Of course, we all know how that opened things up for Tony Gonzalez against the Patriots heavy, slower linebackers. This could be the rookie tight end’s coming out party.

My Pick: Patriots

I think the Patriots are the better team, and I am not really feeling good about the Bengals right now after their loss to the Browns last week. This game is pretty close to a toss up.

 

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
Matchup to Watch: Andrew Luck vs. Earl Thomas

This is a sweet matchup of two of the best young players at their respective positions. Thomas is the best safety in the NFL today, and has a knack for baiting quarterbacks into mistakes and turning them into big plays. Luck has been much more efficient this year than he was in his stellar rookie season, and it will be interesting to see if he can get a big play by Thomas, or if he hands him one.

My Pick: Colts

The Colts have to feel confident that they can take the game plan the Texans used to put Seattle on their heels last week and finish the job. Seattle is not the same team on the road, and they have to lose one of these road games eventually.

 

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Matchup to Watch: Clay Matthews vs. Riley Reiff

Reiff, the second year offensive tackle, has played very well to start the season at the left tackle of an offensive line that many believed would be a weak link on this team. The Lions left tackle faces his biggest test this week when dynamite pass rusher, Clay Matthews, will be lining up against him

My Pick: Packers

I really like the product the Lions are putting on the field, but the Packers are well rested coming off a bye week and I bet they are ready to prove they are still an elite team.

 

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)
Matchup to Watch: Bears defensive line vs. Saints offensive line

These two units have both vastly underperformed this season. Drew Brees has received some of the worst pass protection of his career, not that his play has suffered as a consequence. The Bears defensive line was very poor in terms of rushing the passer, Julius Peppers has declined, and last week without Henry Melton they were hopeless against the run. It will be interesting to see which unit rises to the occasion in this matchup.

My Pick: Bears

I think the Bears bounce back on their home turf this week. The Saints are probably the better team, but I doubt Chicago plays that poorly two weeks in a row.

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)
Matchup to Watch: Hakeem Nicks vs. Cary Williams

Nicks has not played well this season, along with most of his team. Whether it is an issue of health, or his mind is on his contract, I am not sure, but his play needs to pick up. He and the Giants offense have a great opportunity to get well going against Cary Williams and an Eagles secondary that is one of the weaker units in football.

My Pick: Giants

It is hard to pick the giants given how terrible they have played thus far, but its not like they are going to go 0-16. They have a great chance to finally get some offense going against the dreadful Eagles stop unit.

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Matchup to Watch: Greg Hardy vs. Bradley Sowell

In the wake of the Levi Brown trade, 2012 undrafted free agent, Bradley Sowell, will be appointed to start at left tackle for the Cardinals. Sowell was with Bruce Arians in Indy last season, so he at least knows what he is getting himself into. I just hope Sowell knows what he is getting himself into with the beastly Greg Hardy coming to town on Sunday. Look for Carson Palmer to spend a ton of time on his back.

My Pick: Panthers

Given the mismatch I just highlighted above, and extending to the entire Carolina defensive line vs. the Cardinals offensive line, I just cannot imagine Arizona being able to establish much on offense. I will take the Panthers in a low scoring affair.

 

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Matchup to Watch: Julius Thomas vs. Sean Lee/Bruce Carter/Ernie Sims

Sean Lee is a great player, but the reborn Antonio Gates tortured him and fellow linebacker Bruce Carter, in pass coverage last week. There are even some reports that Bruce Carter could lose playing time to Ernie Sims. Gross. Whoever plays for the Cowboys needs to step up with Julius Thomas coming to town. I am sure the Cowboys will focus on trying (key word) to stop the Broncos receivers, but that will leave a ton of room for Thomas to torch these linebackers.

My Pick: Broncos

This game does not feel like a given, but how can you realistically pick against the Broncos right now?

 

Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Matchup to Watch: Vernon Davis vs. Brian Cushing

I think it is pretty well established by now that Davis is the only pass catcher on the 49ers roster that NFL teams should fear. Davis is questionable to play in this game, but if he suits up he needs to have a big day against this Houston defense. Brian Cushing and company will look to shut him down and make San Francisco’s other mediocre players beat them.

My Pick: 49ers

These teams feel somewhat evenly matched, and I am going with the Niners because they are at home. There is a ton of bad mojo around the Texans right now, and if they lose this game, we could be looking at a potential tail spin.

 

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)
Matchup to Watch: Denarius Moore vs. Derek Cox

Cox has been pretty dreadful since singing with the Chargers, which surprises no one. Moore produced despite playing with the skittish Matt Flynn last week, and he could go off with Terrelle Pryor back facing this San Diego secondary.

My Pick: Chargers

This game will be played at a very weird time, 11:59 pm EST, thanks to Major League Baseball. It will be interesting to see how many east coasters stay up to watch this one. Anyways, I think the Chargers pull out a win behind another great Phillip Rivers performance, but I bet this one is close.

 

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Matchup to Watch: Antwan Barnes vs. Lamar Holmes

It looks like Holmes will have to start at left tackle after yet another Sam Baker injury, and we all know how that usually ends. Antwan Barnes seems to come up with these random good seasons every other year before completely falling off and cutting cut by another team. Well, it looks like he is in one of his “on” years, and he will probably have a good game against Holmes.

My Pick: Falcons

Yes, the Jets have the better record, but does anyone really believe they are the better team than the Falcons right now? Geno Smith has played pretty poorly on the road, and I don’t see that changing in the Georgia Dome