Week Nine NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon 

Thursday Night Game:

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Matchup to Watch: Carlos Dunlap vs. Tyson Clabo

• Dunlap is a supremely talented young defensive end for the Bengals who can completely overwhelm an offensive tackle with his crazy athletic ability for a man his size. Clabo was having a terrible season before being benched when the Dolphins traded for Bryant McKinnie, but has been brought back into the starting lineup just one week later after Jonathan Martin left the team to seek personal counseling. Will a week on the bench be enough to fix Clabo’s many issues? That is not very likely. Clabo’s skills in pass protection have rapidly declined and a player with the speed and power of Dunlap will likely be too much for him to handle. If the Dolphins want to pull the upset, this team will need to pass protect much better than they have been against a star studded defensive line. 
  

My Pick: Dolphins

•  An upset is brewing on Thursday night. The Dolphins are not nearly as bad as the national narrative that is out on them says, and the Bengals are not as dominant as they showed in their deconstruction of the Jets. The mismatch in the trenches between the Dolphins offensive line and the Bengals defensive line is a huge reason for pause, but Bryant McKinnie did provide a small upgrade over Jonathan Martin in pass protection against the Patriots on Sunday. The Dolphins are a decent team that has been in every game, and their strength is their defense. Andy Dalton has played lights out recently, but in the past when he has had these stretches a rough patch is sure to follow. Thursday night games always provide some strange surprises and it would not be too shocking to see Dalton wilt against a strong Miami stop unit. If the Dolphins can protect Ryan Tannehill, there is every reason to think the home team can pull off the upset on Thursday night. 

Sunday Games:

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5)
Matchup to Watch:  Kiko Alonso vs. Jamal Charles

• When Jamal Charles left the field with an injury during their Week Eight win, everyone involved with the Chiefs had to hold their breath. The book is out on the Chiefs offense, and it reads “Jamal Charles and everyone else”. If Charles rules the day for the eighth week in a row, the Bills do not have a chance to hand the Chiefs their first loss. The Bills great rookie linebacker, Kiko Alonso, needs to bring his absolute A-game to keep up with Charles. Not only will he need to be assertive in stopping Charles when he runs the ball, but Alonso needs to have a strong game covering him on receptions out of the backfield as well. 

My Pick: Chiefs

• If Thad Lewis plays, the Bills actually might have a shot in this game. as it stands however, the Bills just do not look to have the offensive firepower to go against the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs will win yet another game against a back up quarterback.  

 


Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)
Matchup to Watch: Osi Uymeniora vs. Jordan Gross

• One of the overlooked aspects of Carolina’s recent hot streak is that their protection for Cam Newton has been very good. Newton can get sloppy with his footwork and fundamentals when he has a muddled pocket so the improvement of his offensive line has been huge for him. This matchup features two veteran players who have been doing this a long time, but their career trajectories are not so similar. Gross is still playing at a steady level and giving his quarterback the requisite time in the pocket, whereas Uymeniora has been a big let down for the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons will need to get a better performance out of their pass rush than they have been receiving this season to rattle Cam Newton. 

My Pick: Panthers                                      

• This is technically another bad team for the Panthers to feast on, but this game holds a bit more importance. The Panthers can take a big step in proving they have turn the corner, they need to dispel of their weaker than usual division rival. 

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4)
Matchup to Watch: Terrance Williams and Dez Bryant vs. Vikings cornerbacks

• The Vikings secondary has been one of the worst units in the entire NFL this season. Cornerbacks Chris Cook and Josh Robinson have been beaten regularly, and Xavier Rhodes has looked like a rookie. Facing a fired up Dez Bryant and an up and comer in Terrance Williams is not exactly the remedy this secondary needs. The Vikings offense has proven to be very unreliable so they will need their defense to play to its pre-2013 level in order to upset the Cowboys. 

My Pick: Cowboys

• Josh Freeman, Christian Ponder, it does not matter who is at quarterback for the Vikings because this is a bad all around team. The defense likely will not be able to contain the Cowboys’ weapons and no way the offense can score enough to keep up. This will be a nice “get well game” for the Cowboys after a disappointing loss to the Lions.    

New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4)
Matchup to Watch: Marques Colston vs. Antonio Cromartie

• This is a matchup of two players who are not performing up to their usual standards. Colston, already not the fastest guy in the world, seems to have lost a step and a half this season. He is also clearly behind Jimmy Graham and several other pass catchers in the pecking order in Drew Brees’ mind, and is just not the prominent figure he was in this passing game. Cromartie on the other hand, has been really ineffective ever since he injured his knee during a practice several weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if either of these two former studs can regain their past glory when they line up across from each other on Sunday. 

My Pick: Saints

• This should be an up week on the Jets roller coaster, but they just cannot stand up to the Saints talent wise. The Jets defense has fallen off recently, especially in the secondary, so expect Drew Brees and company to light up the scoreboard.

 Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)
Matchup to Watch: Chris Johnson vs. Rams front seven

• Chris Johnson has looked like a completely different player this season, and that is not meant as a compliment. The speed that made him such a dangerous weapon in the past looks to have evaporated and his 3.2 yards per carry and zero rushing touchdowns point to a player who may be done. The Rams put up a really impressive performance stopping the run against the Seahawks, but had not been a great group in that regard prior to last week. Maybe we see some flashes of the old Chris Johnson, but it is becoming harder and harder to bank on him. 

My Pick: Titans

• The Titans are clearly the better team, and unlike the Rams, have a starting quarterback who is getting healthy. Look for Jake Locker to come back and continue his strong play against a secondary that is way too reliant on the pass rush to give them time to cover receivers. 
  

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5)
Matchup to Watch: Redskins pass offense vs. Chargers secondary

• The Redskins passing offense has been downright bad all season, with the exception of the win over the Bears. Robert Griffin is coming off his worst game as a professional quarterback and outside of Jordan Reed; none of his receivers are picking up the slack. This passing attack has the potential to explode any week, and they are set up for the second week in a row to do just that. The Chargers have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL outside of the stellar Eric Weddle. In theory, there is no way this group should be able to contain the Redskins, but that is contingent on RG3 and the Redskins playing to their potential. In order to exploit this matchup the Redskins must protect their franchise quarterback better than they did against Denver, where it felt as if he was hit on just about every snap. 

My Pick: Chargers  

• It is always hard to pick a west coast team going to the east coast in an early game, but the Chargers have bucked that theory a few times already this season by winning in Philly, Tennessee, and Jacksonville. The Chargers are also red-hot coming out of their bye, and look like the much better team. Expect the Phillip Rivers revival tour to roll into Washington on Sunday. 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)
Matchup to Watch: Raiders front seven vs. LeSean McCoy

• LeSean McCoy has not been able to save himself from the sinking ship that the Eagles offense has become and has had a few nondescript games the past two weeks. McCoy is one of the best running backs in football and is surely capable of returning to that form at any moment. This week he draws a matchup with a defense that, despite being strung together with journeymen on one year deals, is a top ten group. That ranking is not a mirage, these guys are playing really well. Can they keep it up against a stellar running back? It will be fun to watch.

My Pick: Raiders

• The Raiders are a tough out every week with Terrelle Pryor and a surprisingly strong defense. The Eagles gave teams troubles in the early part of the season, but the offense has fallen apart with quarterback problems. Nick Foles is drawing the start this week, and is definitely a better player than last we saw him against the Cowboys. It is hard to see the Eagles suddenly turning their offense around no matter who is under center. 
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1)
Matchup to Watch: Vincent Jackson vs. Richard Sherman

• Mike Glennon is gradually moving away from just targeting Jackson on every pass play, but with Mike Williams going down for the season, it will be hard for Glennon to trust any of his other wide receivers. Seattle will likely look to match Richard Sherman up with Jackson and eliminate him from the Bucs game plan. If Sherman has Jackson blanketed, Glennon will either have to look for Tim Wright or force it to Jackson anyways. We know Sherman loves to intercept the ball in those situations. 

My Pick: Seahawks

• The Seahawks are at home facing an imploding team that has yet to win a game? The choice is not a difficult one.
  

Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Matchup to Watch: Torrey Smith vs. Joe Haden

• Torrey Smith is having a spectacular season, and has become a complete player, but no one seems to notice because he only has one touchdown. The Browns will no doubt have Joe Haden shadow Smith all afternoon in hopes of making Joe Flacco rely on his other unreliable pass catchers. If Smith can get free against Haden for at least one touchdown, maybe people will begin to take notice of this much-improved wide receiver. 

My Pick: Ravens

• Jason Campbell led the Browns in a valiant effort against the Kansas City Chiefs, but it is hard to believe he can do it two weeks in a row. The Ravens cannot run the ball at all with the declining Ray Rice behind an underperforming offensive line, and we know about the struggles of their passing game. This feels like a pick based on past reputation, but the Ravens are still the better team. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2)
Matchup to Watch: Tom Brady vs. the Steelers secondary

• Anyone who has been paying attention to football this season knows that we are seeing Tom Brady at the lowest point of his illustrious career. Brady deserves more blame than his supporting cast, as he is visibly missing guys, and even with his full stable he still was downright bad against the Dolphins last week. The Steelers are a team Brady has historically handled with relative ease, and this defense is no where near as good as it was in those years. Who will win the day, the declining Tom Brady or the declining Steelers defense?

My Pick: Patriots

• The Patriots are somehow 6-2, despite all the injuries and the poor play of their Hall of Fame quarterback. This team has shown a great ability to overcome serious adversity. The Steelers, on the other hand, seem to have completely wilted when faced with challenges. The Patriots will win again at home.  

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)
Matchup to Watch: Robert Mathis vs. Duane Brown

• Mathis leads the NFL in sacks and is a sneaky Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Last we saw Mathis, he was tearing apart the Broncos offensive tackles and making life very difficult for a certain former teammate. In Case Keenum’s first start he handled the pressure brought by the Chiefs stellar pass rushing duo very well for such an inexperienced quarterback. The pride of Houston, Texas will need his Pro-Bowl left tackle to give him plenty of time so he can continue to play well enough to earn the right to start the rest of the season for the Texans. 

My Pick: Texans

• Upset alert. The Texans are not as bad as their record indicates, and Case Keenum may actually give them a better chance to win some games. The Colts are coming off a bye, but the loss of Reggie Wayne cannot be overstated; they do not have anyone ready to step up and fill his role. The Texans will defend their home turf and regain some of their pride.

Monday Night Game:

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Matchup to Watch: Sam Shields vs. Brandon Marshall

• With Josh McCown now the starting quarterback, the Bears will likely look to feature their best pass catcher more than ever. McCown looked pretty good against the Redskins two weeks ago, and will likely spread the ball around, but if he wants to beat the surging Packers, he will need to look to Brandon Marshall. Marshall has a big size advantage over the Packers best cover corner, but Shields has played lights out football the past two season. Look for Shields to be isolated against Marshall and force McCown to involve his other weapons. 

My Pick: Packers 

• The Bears are way too beat up right now to get behind right now, especially on defense. Eddie Lacy has been a huge success story for the Packers and the Bears run defense has lost just about all of its key players to injury. If the Bears somehow manage to shut down Lacy, they can just deal with Aaron Rodgers. What a treat.

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