Week One NFL Picks

By: Matt Harmon

New England Patriots (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: E.J. Manuel vs. Patriots Defense

• Despite early concerns, Manuel is healthy enough to start the regular season opener. I heard a surprising stat this week; the Patriots are only 3-3 versus rookie quarterbacks in their first starts. I figured a Bill Belichick team and defense would be better than that. Manuel is going to tip the scale one way or the other, lets watch!

My Pick: Patriots

• For the big unveiling of their new look offense, the Patriots draw a pretty easy test. I already had the Bills as one of my worst teams, and now they will not have two of their best players, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Jarius Byrd. The Pats will run away with this one. 

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Chris Johnson vs. Steelers front seven

• Chris Johnson is a player that I have been really hard on the past few years. He is out of excuses this year since he finally had his offensive line remade. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers front seven is in a bit of a transition with a few veterans being shown the door. Which remade unit comes out on top on Sunday?

My Pick: Steelers

• I think the Titans are a bottom five team, and despite some transition, the Steelers are still a formidable opponent every week. The Steelers win this one. 
  

 
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Falcons Offensive Line vs. Saints Defensive Line

• Both of these units have been much maligned all summer. The Saints are moving and adjusting to a new scheme, and the Falcons are patching holes with unproven players like Lamar Holmes. The difference in this matchup could be emerging star defensive end, the Saints Cam Jordan. 
  

My Pick: Saints

• The Saints are the home team, and my pick for division winner. In an exciting week one matchup that is sure to turn into a shootout, the Saints come out with a win. 
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Geno Smith vs. Darrelle Revis

• Geno Smith came out this week and said he has not studied any film on the All-Pro corner. Well, that would be a huge mistake. Smith fell somewhat backwards into the starting job, and will face a major first test with the new members of the Tampa Bay secondary. 

My Pick: Buccaneers

• The Buccaneers are the slightly more talented team, but I do not really trust either team very much. Geno could come out and surprise us, and Josh Freeman is always capable of putting a dolt out there. For now, I will stick with the Buccaneers. 
  

 
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Cecil Shorts vs. Brandon Flowers

• Brandon Flowers is an established strong NFL cornerback, and Cecil Shorts is one of my favorite young receivers in the league today. He is an under the radar type of player but a big week one could help him turn heads amongst fans. Also, if he gets by Flowers for a few of his trademark big plays, then we could see an upset here

My Pick: Chiefs

• The Chiefs are being slightly overrated by the national media, but hey this is probably an easy win for them against the Jags. If the Chiefs struggle in this matchup, it will tell us a lot about them going forward.  
  

 
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Bengals Defensive Line vs. Bears Offensive Line

• This is a matchup I circled immediately when looking at this game. The Bears rookies on the right side, tackle Jordan Mills and guard Kyle Long, really excelled in the preseason. Long especially, was dominant. They face a stiff first test on opening day going against a strong pass rushing defensive line with Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, and Carlos Dunlap. 

My Pick: Bengals

• This was a tough one to pick, but I think the matchup above favors the Bengals, and the Bears new offense may take at least a week to mesh. I would not be surprised if this game goes the other way. 
  

 
Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Lamar Miller vs. Browns front seven

• The Browns remade their front seven and switched scheme. Desmond Bryant joins two massive run stuffers in Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor on the new 3-4 line. It should be interesting to see if new Dolphins starting running back, Lamar Miller, will find room to move against the Browns. He needs to step up if this team wants to get into the playoff mix.

My Pick: Browns

• I am picking the Browns in something of an upset here. I am higher on the Browns than most people are and I think they take down a Dolphins team that still needs time for their new faces to gel. 
  

 
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Steve Smith vs. Richard Sherman

• I was tempted to go with another line matchup, but that seems to be too prevalent in these picks. I think that if Carolina wants to beat the Seahawks then they will probably need Steve Smith to beat Sherman a few times. Smith is another year older, but does not seem to be slowing down. It will be up to the great Richard Sherman to keep him in check. Side note: can you even imagine the trash talking that is going to go one between these two, oh my. 

My Pick: Seahawks

• The time difference could play a factor in this game for the Seahawks, but I still believe they are one of the best teams in the NFL. For that reason, I am picking them to win.  
  

 
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Adrian Peterson vs. Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh

• These are three great players, with Peterson obvious being the elite one in the group. While the Lions defensive tackles are some of the best in the game, their scheme also tends to have them play the run on the way to sacking the quarterback. That could work against most teams, but against Peterson, that could be a disaster. 

My Pick: Lions

• Detroit is the home team here, and that is mostly why I have them winning. Peterson could run all over this team, but with the pressure that the Lions could put on Ponder, it may not be enough. 
  

 
Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Terrelle Pryor vs. the Colts defense

• This is something of a broad matchup, but Pryor is such an unknown it is about the only choice to make. We know he has the potential to run around on this defense, but will he be able to supplement that with capable passing? The Raiders will need him to if they have any hopes of starting this season off well.

My Pick: Colts

• I am supremely confident Andrew Luck and his boys come out and dominate the lowly Raiders. 
  

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Tavon Austin vs. Tyran Mathieu

• These two rookies are incredibly versatile and explosive players on either side of the ball. Mathieu is likely to play all over the Cardinals defense after impressing the coaching staff. Fisher said that the team has not come close to unveiling the full plan for Tavon Austin in their offense. Whichever one of these rookies makes more plays, or beats the other, could be a huge factor in who wins this game. 

My Pick: Rams

• The first matchup of the weaker of the NFC West teams will go to St. Louis. I am very excited to see the Rams unveil their new offense against an underrated Cardinals defense.  
  

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Clay Matthews

• It could not be anything else. Last we saw these two teams play, Kaepernick was running all over the Packers defense. Matthews made a few comments saying that they plan on blasting the quarterback every chance they get. Jim Harbaugh naturally took offense and had a chat with the league. Basically, this all sets up for a great game. 

My Pick: 49ers

• The 49ers are just the more physical team, and I tend to doubt the Packers will be able to establish Eddie Lacy in this game. Plus, it is hard to believe the Packers defense can even contain this offense after their display in January. 
  

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Miles Austin vs. Giants secondary

• Everyone knows that Dez Bryant is great, and therefore they have forgotten Miles Austin’s accomplishments. The Giants secondary is banged up and talent depleted. I am sure they will do everything in their power to keep Dez in check, and likely fail. If they do that, Austin will have the ability to remind everyone why he was once considered a top 10 NFL receiver. 

My Pick: Cowboys

• The more time passes, the more down I get on the Giants. This passing attack in Dallas could really destroy this Giants defense and it could get ugly. 
  

 
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: Alfred Morris vs. Eagles front seven

• The Eagles defense is a serious Achilles heel right now. The defense is moving to 3-4 and there are a lot of squares pegs in round holes right now. If Alfred Morris runs over this new defensive front and controls the game, it will not matter how RG3 plays on his surgically reconstructed knee. 

My Pick: Redskins

• Things may begin to click with the Eagles as we get further into the season, but for now they should not be fully trusted. Hopefully RG3 does not have to do too much for this win and can take it easy in week one. 
  

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

Matchup to Watch: J.J. Watt vs. D.J. Fluker

• The rookie right tackle has the unenviable task of trying to keep the best defensive player in the league in check. It is a task is wildly unprepared for, and it could spell trouble for the lowly Chargers. If Watt dominates this game, as I expect, then Rivers will be on his back a ton. 

My Pick: Texans

• This one is pretty simple, the Texans are very good and the Chargers are very bad. There are a ton of mismatches in the favor of the Texans, and the talent differential is too strong for any upset.