Week Seven NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Thursday Night Game:

Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
Matchup to Watch: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Richard Sherman

• This is a relatively easy matchup to pick. Fitzgerald and Sherman are both top five players at their positions and anytime football fans get a chance to watch a matchup like that, it is a real treat. The only caveat here is that Fitzgerald may not be one hundred percent healthy, and it could put a damper on his potential performance. The Cardinals offense has been a big disappointment thus far, and they need Fitzgerald to round back into form if they have any hope to build on their solid 3-3 record. Richard Sherman has fallen off just a tiny bit the past two weeks, but he is still a force to be reckoned with. If he can blanket an unhealthy Fitzgerald, it is tough to see how the Cardinals score enough points to win this game. 
  

My Pick: Seahawks

• By no means is this a slam-dunk, and there is actually a lot that gives me pause when taking the Seahawks. The Cardinals swarming defense could give the Seattle offensive line fits, and even the venerable Seahawks defense has shown a few small cracks of late. If the Cardinals can keep Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson from running wild on them, they have a chance in this game, but it is tough to see that offense holding up its end of the bargain. Maybe if Bruce Arians finally cuts loose Andre Ellington we could have an upset. In the end, with this being a Thursday night game, it is best to always just default with picking the better team. 
  

Sunday Games:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
Matchup to Watch: Falcons wide receivers vs. Bucs secondary

• The Buccaneers secondary is a highly paid and highly touted group, but they had a pretty rough go at it against the Eagles last weekend. Jonathan Banks and Dashon Goldson had particularly poor showings on film. The Bucs continue to use Darrelle Revis in zone coverage, which as Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy) stated on Twitter “is like buying a Bentley and leaving it in the garage”. With Julio Jones out for the season and Roddy White likely to miss this game, the Falcons will be counting on Harry Douglas and a host of young, untested and undrafted players to step up in their absence. We shall see if Matt Ryan has anyone other than Tony Gonzalez to throw to on Sunday. 

My Pick: Falcons

• This games does not feel like the sure thing many would have expected going into this season with only one win between the two teams, but the Falcons are at home and it feels like Matt Ryan will find a way to squeeze this one out for the Falcons. 
  

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)
Matchup to Watch: Jared Cook vs. Luke Keuchly and Mike Mitchell

• It appears Jared Cook, after a red-hot start in Week One, is back to his underachieving ways. The Rams are still getting along fine without him as they have a 3-3 record, but Cook showed in the opening game what a dynamic and game changing talent he is, when he decides to try. The Panthers have one of the best coverage middle linebackers in the NFL in Keuchly and he usually keeps tight ends in check, but the play of Raiders castoff safety, Mike Mitchell has been impressive as well. Mitchell is showing well with his first extended opportunity and keeping Cook in front of him will only continue to bolster his resume. 

My Pick: Panthers                                      

• The Panthers are at home, but we have all seen they are capable of laying an egg any given week. If the Rams dynamic defensive line can get pressure on Cam Newton, we have seen he will struggle in such situations. This week the Rams fall back to Earth a bit after victories over the tanking Jaguars and the collapsing Texans. 
  

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
Matchup to Watch: Geno Atkins vs. Larry Watford

• Geno Atkins has had something of a slow start to his first season after receiving a massive contract extension with teams now assigning him constant double teams. However, he completely and utterly destroyed the Buffalo Bills offensive line and is learning how to beat those double teams he was not used to. Atkins gets to face the extremely impressive rookie guard, Larry Watford, of the Lions in a matchup that will be a great litmus test for the young rookie. Watford has probably been the best offensive rookie in his class so far, and if he were not a guard, more people would know about him. 

My Pick: Lions

• This is the biggest toss up game of the weekend, and in those situations it is often safest to go with the home team. Watching Detroit’s high-powered offense against the Bengals stifling defense should be a real treat.  
  

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
Matchup to Watch: Chargers front seven vs. Jaguars offensive line

• Both of these units have been decimated by injuries, but they have responded quite differently. Jacksonville did not protect very well in their matchup against Denver, while the Chargers depleted front seven absolutely whipped the Colts up front on Monday night. If Jacksonville can control the line of scrimmage, they may have a chance to upset the Chargers, who are coming off an emotional win.

My Pick: Chargers

• Obviously, it would not be wise to count on that upset scenario laid out there. The Chargers look like a team starting to figure things out, the Jaguars look like a team that has figured out their best hopes lay in the years to come.  
  

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Mario Williams vs. Jonathan Martin/Tyson Clabo

• It is probably smart to highlight whenever Miami faces a strong pass rusher because their tackles have been so atrocious in protection that it greatly decreases their chances of winning football games. Williams has looked dominant at times this season and with some of the secondary players returning, Buffalo’s defense could be in for a nice shot in the arm in this game.

My Pick: Bills

• Upset alert! We are going to roll with Backyard Banter’s new favorite backup quarterback, Thad Lewis! There are a few key match ups that go the Bills way, and they have the potential to upset a Dolphins team that may have been a smidgen overrated.  
  

New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3)  
Matchup to Watch: Rob Gronkowski vs. Jets linebackers and safeties

• Well, it looks like Gronk finally got clearance to play in a real football game. it will be interesting to see how the Patriots deploy him and how Rex Ryan’s defense responds to that. I would expect to see them line a defensive end up right over him and challenge his blocking ability with his injured arm. Gronk should help this offense right away, especially in the red zone 

My Pick: Patriots  

• The Jets had their shot to beat the Patriots this season in their previous matchup when the Patriots offense was missing most of its key pieces. Now that the Pats are getting most of their guys back, it’s hard to envision the Jets winning, even at home.   

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
Matchup to Watch: Cowboys defensive line vs. Eagles offensive line

• The Cowboys defensive line, keyed by Jason Hatcher, has been has been a pleasant surprise this season, but now they have to deal with DeMarcus Ware missing several games. Several backup defensive ends will need to step up in a major way if the Cowboys want to sustain the level of play they have gotten from their defensive line. If the Eagles offensive line can control the line of scrimmage I can see Shady McCoy and Nick Foles running over this Cowboys defense. 

My Pick: Eagles

• In a battle for first place in the NFC Least the home team Eagles will win. They are just the healthier team right now. 
  

Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washinton Redskins (1-4)  
Matchup to Watch: Will Montgomery/Kory Lichtensteiger vs. Bears defensive tackles

• The interior of the Redskins offensive line is struggling right now, but if they are going to pick things up, it will be this week against a Bears team on their third string defensive tackles. If the Redskins have any hope of beating a far superior Bears team then they need to get back to establishing a dominant ground game with their offensive line and Alfred Morris.

My Pick: Bears

• The Redskins just are not doing anything well at the moment, and it is hard to see them turning things around against a well-rested Bears team. Watch out for a potential big play on special teams in this one. 
  

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Titans secondary

• Kaepernick continues to disappoint those who thought he would launch himself into elite status this season. He has been disappointing and it is not all on the substandard cast of weapons around him. Conversely the Titans secondary has been a very good unit, especially the cornerbacks Verner and McCourty. Those two can probably handle any of the 49ers receivers and it will just be up to the rest of the defense to control Vernon Davis

My Pick: 49ers

• The Titans defense against the 49ers offense gives reason for pause, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center, it is just hard to pick this team with any good conscience.  
  

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Joe Haden vs. Jordy Nelson

• Joe Haden has been pretty lights out when it comes to shutting down number one receivers this season, and Nelson might be the only healthy Packers receiver with any sort of experience. If Haden can do work on Nelson, and the Browns front seven can limit Eddie Lacy, the Browns may have an actual shot in this game. 

My Pick: Packers

• That being said, the Packers are still just a much better team, and it is hard to envision Brandon Weeden going into Green Bay and putting up the point required to beat Aaron Rodgers.  
  

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
Matchup to Watch: Sean Smith vs. Andre Johnson

• Smith is the most impressive Chiefs defender nobody talks about, and while he may split time on Johnson with Brandon Flowers Smith has the size advantage that will help in shutting down a bigger receiver like Johnson. Case Keenum, in his first career start, would be wise to look for his stud receiver early and often, but will Smith and Flowers allow him that chance?

My Pick: Chiefs

• If there any doubt the Chiefs continue to roll, given they are facing a first time starter behind center? 
  

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Matchup to Watch: Torrey Smith vs. Ike Taylor

• It is a broken record, but Smith is the only offensive threat present for the Ravens, and when he disappeared last week against the Packers, the offense struggled to find any consistency. Ike Taylor is still doing a pretty decent job taking away opponents top receivers and he will likely be shadowing Smith for this entire game.

My Pick: Steelers

• The Steelers know that winning this game is their last best hope to get back into their division race. If they lose this one it is all over. They will pull through at home for the simple sake of their pride.  
  

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
Matchup to Watch: Von Miller vs. Colts offensive tackles  

• Miller finally makes his epic return to a defense that really needs him. Similar to Gronk’s situation, it will be interesting to see what king of playing shape Miller is in, though he did practice with the team all offseason. The Colts offensive tackles are a pretty porous group and Miller has a chance to return to his dominant form very quickly. 

My Pick: Broncos 

• No matter how you feel about Jim Irsay’s comments from earlier in the week, you know how Peyton Manning feels about them. No way he does not go into the house he built and remind the Indy faithful of how great he still is.
  

Monday Night Game:

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants
Matchup to Watch: Jon Beason vs. Adrian Peterson

• Not a very tantalizing matchup, but that’s what you get in a battle of two pretty bad teams. Beason has had a positive effect on the Giants run defense since coming over from the Panthers, though he is still a liability in pass coverage. He needs to continue the strong effort so the Giants can force Josh Freeman to have to beat them. 

My Pick: Giants 

• Sure, the Giants will get their first win. With one quarterback being ill-prepared with a new team, and the other being Eli Manning, can you imagine the potential turnover fest this could become?