Week Six NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Thursday Night Game:

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Jermon Bushrod

• It sure seems like forever ago that we considered JPP an elite, transcendent player who made the rest of his defense better. Granted he is coming off back surgery and that could be part of the problem, but the product on the field just is not good enough. Pierre-Paul has exactly one sack this year, and along with the entire Giants defensive line, has completely fallen from grace. Sacks are not the only measure of a defensive lineman, but if you watch the Giants, you can see there is not much in the way of pressure and quarterbacks have all day to torch this secondary. The Giants have the league’s worst defense for a reason, and JPP’s disappearance is a huge reason why. Jermon Bushrod exceeded expectations out of the gate, along with the rest of the Bears new offensive line, but their performance has collectively come back to Earth a bit in the last two games. If the Giants have any shot of being competitive in this game, much less actually winning at some point, they are going to need Jason Pierre-Paul to have a vintage performance against a left tackle known to struggle with elite pass rushers. 

My Pick: Bears

• The Bears have shown some of their flaws in two straight losses, but what have the Giants done all year to show us they can take advantage of those flaws? The Bears defense in particular has struggled when they do not get turnovers. Well they are lucky that turning the ball over is exactly what the Giants do best. Things are getting so bad for the Giants that Brandon Jacobs is actually being counted on to start this game; that is sad. The Bears are going to in this game, and like all other Giants games this year it probably will not even be close. 
  

Sunday Games:

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
Matchup to Watch: Chiefs pass rushers vs. Raiders offensive line

• Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are first and second, respectively, in the NFL in quarterback hurries this season. Amazingly, Dontari Poe might be even more dominant than those two and his role is the catalyst for those two players getting free. The Raiders will have a ton of trouble dealing with these three players considering veteran castoffs Tony Pashos, Khalif Barnes, and Andre Gurode are logging significant snaps on their offensive line. It is tough to imagine the Chiefs not turning in another dominating defensive performance.
  

My Pick: Chiefs

• The matchup to watch is a big reason why I am picking the Chiefs, and the fact this game is in Arrowhead Stadium. Terrelle Pryor had a great game on Sunday, and though I am amongst his supporters, he was facing a Chargers defense that is amongst the worst in the league. The Chargers boast nothing close to pass rush that Pryor will face against the Chiefs, and I expect him to struggle a bit. 
  

  


Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)
Matchup to Watch: Desean Jackson vs. Darrelle Revis

• Jackson came out and recently stated he has the edge here because Revis cannot run with him. Um, when has that ever stopped Revis before? Jackson might have the edge in speed, but Revis has always been able to get the better of more physically gifted player because of his technique and smarts. I expect that to continue against Jackson, especially now that Jackson called out Revis. 
  

My Pick: Buccaneers

• This game will be the first I have picked the Bucs to win since Week One. I do not have a ton of faith in Mike Glennon or that offense to put up a ton of points, but of the four units playing in this game, I strongly believe the Bucs defense is the best. With Nick Foles behind center, and the inhenent changes to Philly’s offense that will follow, I give the Bucs a great chance to win the day with defense. 
  

  


Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Nick Perry vs. Michael Oher

• Oher has been a problem for the Ravens, and has been an inconsistent player his entire career. Second-year pass rusher, Nick Perry, looks to be coming into his own with two sacks last week, but he will now have to pick up some serious slack with Clay Matthews sidelined. With Eugene Monroe ready to relegate the struggling Bryant McKinnie to the bench, the Packers would be wise to get Perry lined up against Oher. 
  

My Pick: Packers

• I do not feel great about this pick, especially since the Ravens are at home and I love their defense, but I really have a hard time seeing this Ravens offense putting up enough points to match Green Bay’s firepower. If Rodgers can carve up this defense, there is no way Flacco and company can keep up. 
  

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Ndamukong Suh vs. Alex Mack

• Suh is finally playing up to his full, otherworldly potential this season, and he dominating most offensive lineman who try to stop him. With Brandon Weeden starting again, it is of the utmost importance that Cleveland’s star center, Alex Mack keeps Suh out of Weeden’s face. Weeden lack of pocket awareness and tendency to hold the ball too long puts a lot of stress on an offensive line even without having to deal with a player like Suh. There is a recipe for disaster here, unless Mack turns in a stellar afternoon. 
  

My Pick: Browns

• This pick has a lot to do with the reports that Calvin Johnson will either not be playing, or be hobbled in this game. We saw Detroit struggle to move the ball without Johnson commanding a ton of defensive attention, and I see no reason that would not continue against the great Browns defense. 
  

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Matchup to Watch: Star Lotulelei vs. Jon Sullivan

• As I highlighted in a "The Eye in the Sky" article, Star Lotulelei is owning the line of scrimmage right now and changing the entire landscape of the Panthers defense. Going against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings rushing attack, the Panthers will need Star to have his best performance. Jon Sullivan is one of the best young centers in the game today, but I am sure we will see the Vikings use him in tandem with a guard to get a double team on Star. 
  

My Pick: Vikings

• This is a toss up game to me, and if it were in Carolina, I would probably pick the Panthers. With the horrible tragedy that has occurred in Adrian Peterson’s life, I cannot help but root for him to go and play his heart out while leading the Vikings to a win.
  

  


St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)
Matchup to Watch: Andre Johnson vs. Janoris Jenkins

• I highlight this matchup for two reasons. First, Jenkins is an aggressive young player and while he is an ascending cornerback, but that aggression can get him beat deep at times. Andre Johnson is probably looking to take advantage of Jenkins. The second reason is that I would not be surprised if Jenkins uses some of that aggression to snag yet another Matt Schaub interception.  
  

My Pick: Texans  

• We all know Schaub is on a short leash and is in full-on meltdown mode, but we also know the Rams are not a very good football team. I think at home the Texans will rally and get a win against the hapless Rams to save their season.  
  

  


Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: DeMario Davis vs. Heath Miller

•  It was easy to see the kind of impact Miller makes just by watching the Steelers after he returned to the field. He is a stabilizing force as a pass catcher for Roethlisberger and as a blocker in the running game. Davis is an emerging young linebacker and is a fluid player in coverage that Rex Ryan has coveted at that position. I expect to see him matchup with Miller on some regularity. 
  

My Pick: Steelers

• I know everyone is hyped on the Jets right now after their impressive Monday night win, and it is always hard to project a winless squad to win their first game, but I do not see Geno Smith finding the same success he found against the depleted Falcons when he goes against Dick LaBeau’s defense. 
  

  


Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3)
Matchup to Watch: C.J. Spiller vs. Vontaze Burfict

• C.J. Spiller has had a really slow start to this season, and I think a lot of that can be blamed on the coaching staff. Former head coach, Chan Gailey, did a great job of running Spiller in space and utilizing his skills as a pass catcher, but Doug Marrone and his staff have tried to force Spiller into the role of a conventional running back. Offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, would be wise to try to get Spiller matched up as a receiver against some of the Bengals heavy-footed linebackers so he can break a few big plays. The Bills will need to manufacture some offense somehow. 
  

My Pick: Bengals

• I just do not see how anyone can pick the Bills in this game. The Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league and Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback. It could get ugly. 
  

  

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)
Matchup to Watch: Jurrell Casey vs. Max Unger

• Casey has looked like a Pro Bowler for the Titans and you could argue he has been the catalyst for this much-improved defense. Seattle’s offensive line has been a train wreck this season, but they should be getting some help in the form of Pro Bowl center, Max Unger’s return to the field. 
  

My Pick: Seattle

• Seattle does not lose at home, and they especially do not lose at home to streaky quarterbacks like Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans are an improved team, but they do not have the firepower on offense to compete against this ferocious defense. 
  

  


Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)
Matchup to Watch: Broncos running backs vs. Jaguars front seven

• What is my reason for listing this matchup? I am just curious as to who will be running the ball at what stages of the game. I could see forgotten runners Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball having big days as they run the clock out in garbage time.
  

My Pick: Broncos

• No explanation needed. 

  


Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
Matchup to Watch: Anquan Boldin vs. Patrick Peterson

• Boldin makes some crazy catches, just by being the more physical player, even when he is not open. Against an elite cornerback like Patrick Peterson it is really hard to count on Boldin do that on a consistent basis. Boldin will nee to come up with some of those catches however, because this 49ers offense just does not move well at all when he is taken out of the game plan. 
  

My Pick: 49ers

• These two teams have identical record coming into this game, but there should be no doubt who the better team is. The 49ers offense is an incomplete unit going against the ferocious Cardinals defense, but the Cardinals are just too bad on offense to back right now. 
  

  


New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Matchup to Watch: Devin McCourty vs. Jimmy Graham

• McCourty will need to be a big part of the plan to try and erase Jimmy Graham. The Patriots linebackers are notoriously heavy-footed, downhill players who can get roasted by athletic tight ends. Graham is only the best tight end in the league, and even with McCourty’s help the Patriots can only at best hope to slow him down a little.  
  

My Pick: Saints

• The Patriots rarely ever lose at home, and I could certainly end up regretting this, but the Saints are a top three team in the NFL right now. I have faith in this offense to go into Foxboro and outscore the struggling Tom Brady and his boys.  
  

  


Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Matchup to Watch: Leonard Hankerson vs. Morris Claiborne  

• Hankerson is, at best, an inconsistent player. However, with Pierre Garcon likely drawing the attention of Brandon Carr, I imagine Hankerson will get some matchups with the struggling Claiborne. If Hankerson can have on of his on days, it would really help a Washington offense that has struggled early on in games this season. Sometimes role players like Hankerson can make all the difference in a division rivalry game. 
  

My Pick: Redskins 

• You can just call this one a feeling. The Cowboys are almost always good for a let down just when everyone is starting to come around on them. Losing to Washington at home after their impressive battle with the Broncos would fall into that category. 
  

  

Monday Night Game:

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Matchup to Watch: Keenan Allen vs. Vontae Davis

• Keenan Allen is quickly establishing himself as a strong number one receiver for the Chargers as a mere rookie. He has been on a tear recently and likely wants to continue to show teams they made a huge mistake letting him fall to the third round. Vontae Davis will need to do his best work against the impressive rookie wideout. 
  

My Pick: Colts 

• If this game turns into a shootout, the Chargers could pull off a surprise, but the Colts defense has actually been better than expected thus far. The Chagers defense is a totally different story. The Colts are the better team and should win this game.