Week Sixteen NFL Preview

Sunday and Monday Games:

The Five Major Storylines

How will this week’s episode of “As the NFC North Turns” end?
Will the Redskins, led by Kirk Cousins, put the final nail in the coffin of the Dallas Cowboys season?
Will the Carolina Panthers put up a better fight in their own house during the rematch with the Saints?
Can the Ravens continue their recent dominance of the Patriots?
Which non-playoff contending teams will play as if they are looking forward to the summer?

The Best Matchups to Watch
1) Michael Crabtree vs. Falcons cornerbacks

Not much will be on the line when the Falcons travel to battle the 49ers in the final regular season game at Candlestick Park. The Falcons have long been out of the playoff race, and this game is not likely to be competitive. However, it will be important to watch 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Crabtree has returned very early from an Achilles tendon tear, but he has shown signs of his old skills recently. Crabtree has not turned in a dominant performance yet since his return, but that could be in store this Monday night against the Falcons secondary. One positive attribute Crabtree has regained is his explosiveness in tight areas:

On a first quarter play in the red zone, Crabtree is going to run a post route to the corner of the end zone. He will be isolated with rookie Jonathan Banks at the top of the screen. The linebackers and safeties will bite forward on two play action fakes; first a give to the fullback followed by a toss the halfback:

Crabtree’s juke at the top of his route causes the corner to open his hips. At this moment, the wide receiver is open, but does not have the attention of his quarterback. Colin Kaepernick is still on his first read. A well covered Anquan Boldin. Crabtree knows his quarterback’s eyes are elsewhere, and prepares to compensate. By the time Kaepernick looks Crabtree’s way, the receiver has run out of real estate in the corner of the end zone. The play is not over for Michael Crabtree, and he continues to fight off the coverage:

At the sideline, Crabtree begins to work back inside on the cornerback. All the while, Kaepernick continues to look for his number one receiver, and rolls out of the pocket to his side of the field. Once he is inside the cornerback, Crabtree stops quickly and explodes back to his original spot by the sideline. He creates just enough space for his quarterback to deliver the ball for a touchdown.
Crabtree is clearly getting healthier, and regaining his previous form. In the first week back from injury, his moves were very belabored. Now, he is showing some of that short area quickness that makes him a master of getting separation from defenders. The Falcons cornerbacks will be hard pressed to contain a Michael Crabtree who is inching closer to one hundred percent. More great performances from their best receiver will only increase the 49er’s confidence level as they prepare for a playoff run.

2) Al Woods vs. Packers offensive line

Al Woods was a pleasant surprise on film last week. Woods was a fourth round pick of the Saints several years ago, but was released that same season. He bounced around to a few other teams, but never logged significant snaps. However, now in his second stint with the Steelers, Woods is playing very well. A big, run-stuffer at nose tackle, he played a key role in shutting down the Bengals running game on Sunday night:

With an unbalanced line on the field (left tackle Anthony Collins is playing next to the right tackle), this is clearly a run to the right side of the field for the Bengals. BenJarvus Green-Ellis intends to take the play through the hole that will open between Collins (#73) and the tight end. Al Woods has other plans for the running back:

Woods has a very thick lower body, and it’s where he derives most of his strength. With a good lower base, Woods is able to push through the initial punch of the offensive linemen. Woods is then able to gain inside leverage on the guard and work his way into the backfield. Lastly, Woods shows off his upper body strength by snagging Green-Ellis with one arm and bringing him to the ground. This was just one of the many plays Woods made on the Bengals running backs last week.
Another strong performance from Al Woods would go a long way to ensuring the Steelers a victory over the Packers. Green Bay had a ton of success running Eddie Lacy last week against Dallas, and with Aaron Rodgers out yet again, they will need that to continue. Al Woods will need to play a big role for the Steelers for a second consecutive week.

3) Greg Hardy vs. Terron Armstead

In the one of the week’s biggest games, the Saints will be starting a rookie left tackle against one of the game’s better pass rushers. Carolina’s Greg Hardy is an aggressive rusher who will look to feast on Terron Armstead. One of Hardy’s best attributes is his ability to quickly convert speed to power:

In Week Thirteen, Greg Hardy did battle with Buccaneers Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn. Often times Hardy got the better of him. Penn is a great athlete and his quickness off the line is evident on this play. Penn is well into his stance when Hardy comes across the line. However, Penn has his hands at his waist, a pet peeve of offensive line coaches. Hardy identifies this, and exploits Penn’s sloppy technique:

Hardy is coming off the edge, but quickly stops when Penn attempts to engage him. Hardy then uses his superior strength to work inside of the left tackle. Once Hardy shoves Penn aside, he shows great burst to get to the quarterback:

The result of the play is a sack of rookie Mike Glennon. Hardy shows all of the positive traits that have helped him turn from a former sixth-rounder into a star pass rusher. He has great athleticism for a 280-plus pound defensive end, great strength, and a relentless mentality.
Terron Armstead has the athleticism to accelerate out of his stance, much like Penn did, when he faces Hardy. However, to keep him off Drew Brees, he will need to display great strength and technique. Armstead must engage Hardy and keep him locked in for several seconds. If Armstead cannot get his hands on Hardy, the Panthers defensive end has the potential to wreck the Saints offense. Just like Robert Quinn did to the Saints last week.

To see how Shane Vereen will fair against the Ravens, and Jimmy Graham will play against the Panthers:

My meaningless picks that you don’t care about:

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