Week Ten NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Thursday Night Game:

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-7)
Matchup to Watch: Jared Allen vs. Trent Williams

• Some may not know this, but there are not three left tackles that have played better than Trent Williams this season. Outside of a disastrous Week Eight loss to the Broncos, Williams has been playing lights out this whole season; locking up pass rushers and moving defenders around in the running game. Williams is in the midst of a dominant season and is one of Pro Football Focus’ top ranked offensive linemen. Jared Allen has definitely begun to show his age, and while he may not take over games like he did in the past, he is still certainly capable of disrupting opposing quarterbacks. RG3 is still a young signal caller, and therefore really struggles under pressure from opposing pass rushers. With his mobility, Griffin is best suited to deal with edge pressure from a player like Allen, but the film shows Griffin really struggles with pressure from interior defensive linemen like he received in the Dallas and Denver losses. It was no coincidence that those were RG3’s worst games of the season. If Trent Williams can lock down Jared Allen one-on-one, the Redskins offensive line can dedicate their full compliment of resources to shutting interior pass rushers like veteran Kevin Williams and disappointing rookie Sharrif Floyd. 

My Pick: Redskins

• This Thursday the football nation is treated to a game of two pretty disappoint teams. However, while the Vikings have been a complete dumpster fire, the Redskins may actually be trending upwards. The Redskins offense looked like the exciting and threatening unit from last season, and Griffin was making stick throws at every level of the field. However, Griffin has fooled us into thinking he was back after the win over the Bears, only to follow up with the worst game of his young career. If he can sustain his strong play, the Pierre Garcon and the Redskins passing offense could completely destroy this awful Vikings secondary. On the other hand, this looks like the exact type of game for Adrian Peterson to run wild over a bad defense for 200 plus yards. The Redskins are the pick, and they really have more at stake here; they will be right back in the NFC East race with a win, but a loss would essentially doom them. 

Sunday Games:

Seattle Seahawks (8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
Matchup to Watch: Zach Miller vs. Falcons Safeties

• Zach Miller’s biggest game as a Seahawk came against these Falcons in last year’s wild playoff duel. Miller hauled in eight passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons defense has been much worse this season than it was last year when Miller had his way with them. Miller has been slow to get going this season, and he has dealt with an injury, but he can rekindle a little fire against a team he has beaten before. With the state of Seattle’s pass catcher, they could certainly use a big game from Miller. 

My Pick: Seahawks

• The Seahawks have not been playing their best ball lately, but Atlanta has been much, much worse. Atlanta is not built and does not have the personnel to exploit the two weaknesses Seattle has shown recently, run defense and pass protection. This could be a nice get-well game for the Seahawks. 
  

 

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)
Matchup to Watch: A.J. Green vs. Lardarius Webb

• One of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, Webb was supposed to be a big assistance to the Ravens defense as he made his return from a torn ACL this season, but Webb has not looked like the same player. He has had troubles in coverage and has made been on the wrong end of several highlight reel plays; Davone Bess’ second touchdown last week for example. The Ravens may realize Webb is not playing well, or may not be fully healthy, as they have been lining him up in the slot more often than outside against bigger receivers. Will A.J. Green get a chance to feast on Webb, or will Webb round into form against the All-Pro wideout. 

My Pick: Ravens                                        

• It is really hard to pick the Ravens right now, but if they lose this game, their season will essentially be over. They will be four games behind the division leading Bengals with a loss, and will be way too far back to compete for the sixth seed in the wildcard race. If the inconsistent Andy Dalton shows up, and the Bengals defense takes a big step with the loss of Geno Atkins, the Ravens have a chance; albeit a small one.

 

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
Matchup to Watch: Reggie Bush vs. Bears Linebackers

• The Bears are being forced to start two rookie linebackers, Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene, due to injuries right now. The rookies have had their fair share of gaffs, especially on James Starks’ touchdown run on Monday night. Bostic and Greene will need to play with more discipline against a back with the speed and agility of Reggie Bush. The Lions should be able to take advantage of the Bears weak run defense if they chose to feature their running backs, but even if they ant to go pass heavy as usual Bush could be lethal against these rookie linebackers on quick screens.

My Pick: Lions

• The Bears are a good team, and it is hard to imagine them dropping both games to a division rival, but too many matchups favor the Lions in this game. Last time these two teams met, the Lions essentially did whatever they want on offense, and we should see a repeat of that on Sunday. The Bears decision to rush Jay Cutler back in this game is an ill-advised one with Josh McCown playing so well. 
  

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)
Matchup to Watch: Clay Matthews vs. Lane Johnson

• It looks like Matthews will return from his lengthy injury just in time to face a rookie offensive tackle who has been a nightmare in pass protection. With Matthews just coming off injury, the Packers would be wise to line up Matthews over Johnson and let the other players struggled with Jason Peters at left tackle.

My Pick: Eagles

• The difference in this game will be the Eagles run defense, a group that has quietly been getting better throughout the season as players like defensive end Fletcher Cox have been getting comfortable and excelling in the new 3-4 defense. If this defense can shut down Eddie Lacy, the offense should have no trouble outscoring the Seneca Wallace led Packers. 

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)
Matchup to Watch: Zac Stacy vs. Colts front seven

• Stacy has been on a tear recently, and is about the only thing going right on the Rams offense. The Colts have put some pretty bad tape out defending the run at time, the Chargers loss in particular, and Stacy could be in line for his third straight 100-yard game. The Rams do not have a lot of hope against one of the NFL’s best teams, but if Stacy can run through the Colts, they can at least keep it close.

My Pick: Colts

• The Colts are one of the best teams in the AFC and have legitimate Super Bowl dreams; they will not come up short to the Rams.

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
Matchup to Watch: Stevie Johnson vs. Steelers cornerbacks

• The Steelers secondary was just really embarrassed by the Patriots passing offense last week, so Stevie Johnson is probably licking his chops to get after them. Johnson has some of the most unique moves among NFL receivers to get himself open, and it is hard to see any of the Steelers corners matching up with him. It will just be up to E.J. Manuel to find Johnson in the rookie quarterback’s first start since his knee injury. 
  

My Pick: Bills

• Despite a loss last week, the Bills appear to be trending upwards; their quarterback is back, C.J. Spiller is getting healthy, and their defense continues to improve. The Steelers on the other hand, just develop new problems every week. The Bills defensive line should give the Steelers absolute fits, and might be the difference in this game. 
  

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Matchup to Watch: Denard Robinson vs. Titans defense

• A very broad matchup, but no one knows how the Jags are planning to deploy the former college quarterback who they have said they plan on unleashing this weak. In a game that not many will be interested in watching, it will at least be fun to see if Robinson can make a difference in the Jaguars offense, or at least an impact.
  

My Pick: Titans

• The Jaguars just lost one of their best players to a suspension; not exactly a formula for winning your first game.

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco (6-2)
Matchup to Watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Thomas Davis

• Thomas Davis is somehow in the middle of his best season as a Panther two years removed from his third ACL repair surgery. Davis is not the same physical specimen he once was, but a drop off for him still probably puts him in the top half of linebackers in terms of athletic ability. Davis excels in coverage and has become a very instinctive player. The Panthers will need Davis to lead the linebackers in their effort to stop Colin Kaepernick from busting off any big runs. The 49ers have tabled their efforts to make Kaepernick a pocket passer and have just cut him loose as a runner since it gives them the best chance to win. The Panthers cannot afford to have him running all over them. 

My Pick: 49ers

• This is very quietly the game of the week. The Panthers have been beating up on some bad teams, but they have also won all of those games by at least twenty points; a near impossible feat in the NFL no matter who you face. If Cam Newton can stay on his mistake free hot streak, the Panthers absolutely have a chance to win this game, but the 49ers are at home, and you have to trust them more at this point. 
  

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Matchup to Watch: Calais Campbell vs. Texans interior offensive line

• As great as Case Keenum has been thus far in his first two starts there is one thing that he has yet to have to overcome; intense interior pressure. Pressure from the inside of a defensive line often disrupts quarterbacks more than pressure from edge rushers, where the quarterback can just step up. Houston center, Chris Myers, is one of the best in the business, but he and his mates will have their hands full with Calais Campbell of the best, and most underrated, defensive players in the league. If Campbell can get pressure in front of Keenum, he may fall well short of the lofty standards he has set for himself.

My Pick: Texans

• The Texans might actually be a better team than Arizona now that they have a viable starting quarterback. This will be a new challenge for the young quarterback, as the Cardinals bring intense pressure in the a-gap with the aforementioned Campbell and linebacker Daryl Washington. However, how does Arizona plan to block the Texans own interior pass rushing dynamo, J.J. Watt? Watt could go off for three sacks against this offensive line and that should force Carson Palmer into plenty of mistakes.

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Matchup to Watch: Antonio Gates vs. Broncos linebackers

• Some of the criticism of the Broncos defense is overblown, but one are they really struggle in is their defense of tight ends. The Denver linebackers are good working downhill, but do not have much in the way of coverage abilities, and therefore ten to get taken advantage of by athletic tight ends. The Chargers will need to score points in bunches to keep up with the Broncos and Phillip Rivers will would be wise to look to exploit this mismatch. Look out for Gates to have a big day.

My Pick: Broncos

• This game should be a shoot out, but the Chargers secondary is too porous to leave too much of a chance for an upset special. This game will be close and fun to watch, but the Broncos will probably be up by double digits once they hit the fourth quarter. 

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Matchup to Watch: DeMarcus Ware vs. Charles Brown

• Ware is set to come back from his first ever extended absence since joining the NFL. Ware was adjusting quite nicely to his new position as 4-3 defensive end prior to his injury and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up where he left off. He draws an easy matchup on Sunday night, as Charles Brown has been one of the main reasons the Saints have struggled in protection and has been one of the worst left tackles in the league. Ware could be the difference on a Dallas defense that has let too many offenses run wild on them recently. 
  

My Pick: Saints

• One of the best in the business, Ross Tucker, pointed out on his awesome podcast, that you should all be listening to, that Cowboys defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has inexcusably refused to take away what opposing offenses do best. You should not allow Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson to beyond dominate you in the manner that Kiffin has. Is there any doubt that Jimmy Graham will be next in line? The Saints might be a tad overrated, but the Cowboys cannot hang with them in the Super Dome. 

Monday Night Game:

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)
Matchup to Watch: Daniel Te'o-Nesheim vs. Tyson Clabo

• Much of the dialogue surrounding this game has been about how much will the absence of two certain starting offensive lineman hurt the Miami Dolphins. However, does Tampa Bay even have the personnel to exploit their absence? Te’o-Nesheim is not a good pass rusher at all, and really should not be a starting defensive end in the NFL. If Clabo were ever going to have a good game, this would be it. If the Bucs can pressure Tannehill, they have a chance to get their first win.

My Pick: Dolphins

• This is a tough game to pick. The Bucs appeared to play hard for Greg Schiano last week, but he and his coaching staff’s inability to make adjustments mid-game cooked them in the end. Miami, on the other hand, appears to be reeling from the outside in light of “Bullygate”, but is this really a locker room divided? All the players seem to be united against Jonathan Martin and they way he is handling the situation. Neither choice feels right, but you cannot realistically pick the Bucs until they actually show they know how to win a game.
  

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