Sunday Morning Coming Down: April 13th
By: Matt Harmon
April 13, 2014
April 13, 2014
Random Football Musings
Since I put out a big board this week, I’ll explain a few of prospect’s placements and my theories.
1) Why I include the asterisk marking
A lot of decisions on draft day revolve around risk management. Teams must be prepared to analyze the costs and benefits surrounding each pick.
Is taking on a risky prospect worth the potential reward? How likely is the player to hit, and is this selection close enough to their proper draft value to take a chance? These are the questions teams must wrestle with in the final moments before turning in a draft card.
I used the asterisk system when compiling my board to help illustrate why an organization may take a risky prospect. I gave an asterisk to players who have the immense upside necessary to, and likely will, jump a tier once they reach the NFL. Prospects with an asterisk in the good starter tier have the requisite potential to become high-end starters in the pros—even if they do not qualify at this moment.
Risk management is real in the NFL. Here’s an example on how the asterisk could help a team navigate the tiered big board.
Defensive tackles Aaron Donald (10th overall prospect) and Ra’Shede Hageman (13th overall prospect) both fall in the high-end starter prospect tier. If there is a team selecting late in the top ten or early in the teens with a defensive line need, they’ll be tempted by either prospect. Throwing out scheme preference for a moment, I would understand if a front office took Hageman over Donald.
Even though Donald is the higher ranked prospect, Hageman is the one with an asterisk. Both are in the high-end starter prospect tier, but Hageman has the upside to jump into the elite prospect group. The asterisk helps illustrate why an NFL team would take a lower rated prospect in Hageman over Donald. The risk is minimal, while the reward is great.
2) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix tops the high-end prospect tier
Here’s one of the great mysteries of this year’s draft season. I don’t understand why everyone isn’t on board with a high evaluation of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. How is he not among every draftnik’s top ten? I’ve even seen a few evaluators assign Clinton-Dix a second round or lower grade. I don’t get it.
In my eyes Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is clearly the best defensive back in this class. He’s my sixth overall prospect, and only one of two first round safeties—Jimmie Ward (16th overall) is the other. Given that I don’t have a cornerback ranked until the 21st spot (Kyle Fuller), It’s easy to see why Clinton-Dix is so valuable.
Since I put out a big board this week, I’ll explain a few of prospect’s placements and my theories.
1) Why I include the asterisk marking
A lot of decisions on draft day revolve around risk management. Teams must be prepared to analyze the costs and benefits surrounding each pick.
Is taking on a risky prospect worth the potential reward? How likely is the player to hit, and is this selection close enough to their proper draft value to take a chance? These are the questions teams must wrestle with in the final moments before turning in a draft card.
I used the asterisk system when compiling my board to help illustrate why an organization may take a risky prospect. I gave an asterisk to players who have the immense upside necessary to, and likely will, jump a tier once they reach the NFL. Prospects with an asterisk in the good starter tier have the requisite potential to become high-end starters in the pros—even if they do not qualify at this moment.
Risk management is real in the NFL. Here’s an example on how the asterisk could help a team navigate the tiered big board.
Defensive tackles Aaron Donald (10th overall prospect) and Ra’Shede Hageman (13th overall prospect) both fall in the high-end starter prospect tier. If there is a team selecting late in the top ten or early in the teens with a defensive line need, they’ll be tempted by either prospect. Throwing out scheme preference for a moment, I would understand if a front office took Hageman over Donald.
Even though Donald is the higher ranked prospect, Hageman is the one with an asterisk. Both are in the high-end starter prospect tier, but Hageman has the upside to jump into the elite prospect group. The asterisk helps illustrate why an NFL team would take a lower rated prospect in Hageman over Donald. The risk is minimal, while the reward is great.
2) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix tops the high-end prospect tier
Here’s one of the great mysteries of this year’s draft season. I don’t understand why everyone isn’t on board with a high evaluation of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. How is he not among every draftnik’s top ten? I’ve even seen a few evaluators assign Clinton-Dix a second round or lower grade. I don’t get it.
In my eyes Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is clearly the best defensive back in this class. He’s my sixth overall prospect, and only one of two first round safeties—Jimmie Ward (16th overall) is the other. Given that I don’t have a cornerback ranked until the 21st spot (Kyle Fuller), It’s easy to see why Clinton-Dix is so valuable.
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has the best name in this draft, and should also be one of its consensus top 10 prospects (Image: cbssports.com)
Taking a safety in the top 10 wasn’t advisable a few years ago. However, the NFL has changed since then, and the position is more important than ever. Having a great one like Ha Ha should tempt many teams.
Clinton-Dix has the best range of any safety in this class. He covers ground on the back end well, and shouldn’t be caught out of position very often at the next level. His 40-yard dash time wasn’t mind blowing, but Clinton-Dix’s foot quickness stands out on film. He closes in a hurry, and explodes in short areas. These attributes are even more impressive when you consider his build and length.
Perhaps you could say he isn’t an elite player against the run. But that won’t be his primary game in the pros. If you’re knocking him for that, you’re trying too hard and thinking too much. Clinton-Dix isn’t exactly a liability in that phase either. He doesn’t show an aversion to contact, or take poor angles going downhill. He wasn’t a playmaking stat stuffer in college, but has the instincts and physical traits to be one in the NFL.
Sometimes current events in the NFL affect certain prospects in the draft. Earl Thomas’ outstanding play is hurting Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Thomas is the cream of the crop in terms of center fielder free safeties. His unreal range allows the Seahawks to do so many different things on defense. But holding a prospect to those standards is foolish.
Clinton-Dix’s range isn’t on Thomas’ level, but it is a strength in his game. Comparing a safety to Earl Thomas is just as short sighted as comparing a quarterback prospect to Andrew Luck coming out of school.
Recommendations
1) Shane Alexander’s “Anatomy of an NFL Draft Pick” series
Shane is a writer I’ve recently been introduced to. The work on his site A1Gsports.com is quite impressive. You can tell he has a passion for all sports, and particularly college football and the NFL draft.
Shane is doing a lot of great work right now, but I enjoy his “Anatomy of an NFL Draft Pick” series by far the most. So far, he’s done the Texans, Rams, and Jaguars and each in exhaustive fashion. Alexander details how each team arrived at their current draft slot, and potential players and positions they can address there. He even gets a bit more qualitative and tells you what the pick means to the organization as a whole. It is very compelling and informative stuff.
So go ahead, check out Shane Alexander’s fantastic series, and follow him on Twitter. You will be smarter for doing so.
2) A cancelled FOX TV series “Lie to Me”
If you’ve followed my work for a while, or know me in real life, you’re familiar with my TV show obsessions. I’m constantly comparing programs, and ranting about my takes on the greatest ones in my time.
One of the first shows I ever got hooked on when my parents bought a Netflix account was “Lie to Me”. FOX canceled the program many years ago, but I’m not sure why, given the quality of its three seasons.
Clinton-Dix has the best range of any safety in this class. He covers ground on the back end well, and shouldn’t be caught out of position very often at the next level. His 40-yard dash time wasn’t mind blowing, but Clinton-Dix’s foot quickness stands out on film. He closes in a hurry, and explodes in short areas. These attributes are even more impressive when you consider his build and length.
Perhaps you could say he isn’t an elite player against the run. But that won’t be his primary game in the pros. If you’re knocking him for that, you’re trying too hard and thinking too much. Clinton-Dix isn’t exactly a liability in that phase either. He doesn’t show an aversion to contact, or take poor angles going downhill. He wasn’t a playmaking stat stuffer in college, but has the instincts and physical traits to be one in the NFL.
Sometimes current events in the NFL affect certain prospects in the draft. Earl Thomas’ outstanding play is hurting Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Thomas is the cream of the crop in terms of center fielder free safeties. His unreal range allows the Seahawks to do so many different things on defense. But holding a prospect to those standards is foolish.
Clinton-Dix’s range isn’t on Thomas’ level, but it is a strength in his game. Comparing a safety to Earl Thomas is just as short sighted as comparing a quarterback prospect to Andrew Luck coming out of school.
Recommendations
1) Shane Alexander’s “Anatomy of an NFL Draft Pick” series
Shane is a writer I’ve recently been introduced to. The work on his site A1Gsports.com is quite impressive. You can tell he has a passion for all sports, and particularly college football and the NFL draft.
Shane is doing a lot of great work right now, but I enjoy his “Anatomy of an NFL Draft Pick” series by far the most. So far, he’s done the Texans, Rams, and Jaguars and each in exhaustive fashion. Alexander details how each team arrived at their current draft slot, and potential players and positions they can address there. He even gets a bit more qualitative and tells you what the pick means to the organization as a whole. It is very compelling and informative stuff.
So go ahead, check out Shane Alexander’s fantastic series, and follow him on Twitter. You will be smarter for doing so.
2) A cancelled FOX TV series “Lie to Me”
If you’ve followed my work for a while, or know me in real life, you’re familiar with my TV show obsessions. I’m constantly comparing programs, and ranting about my takes on the greatest ones in my time.
One of the first shows I ever got hooked on when my parents bought a Netflix account was “Lie to Me”. FOX canceled the program many years ago, but I’m not sure why, given the quality of its three seasons.
It didn't last long but Tim Roth was marvelous as Cal Lightman (Image: comicvine.com)
Tim Roth plays an abrasive, but brilliantly intriguing character in Dr. Cal Lightman. The show centers on Lightman’s unique brand of science; deception detection by facial ques. The show also has some decent (albeit predictable) supporting characters, but Roth steals the spotlight. The cast strives to solve crimes, and prevent catastrophes based off individual’s non-verbal cues and interactions. For someone like myself who primarily enjoys TV shows as a form of social analysis, this one is perfect.
If you have a Netflix account, you have easy access. “Lie to Me” is really underrated, and one that I’ll always recommend. Too bad the show was cancelled, but maybe it’s for the best. You can enjoy three seasons of quality television, and never have to watch it go downhill.
What I’m Watching This Week
Defensive end Kony Ealy of Missouri
Michael Sam gets all the headlines, but Kony Ealy is the Missouri defensive end that will be taken high in the draft. Ealy is the ninth overall prospect, according to Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, and is widely projected as a first round pick.
I’m not nearly as high on Ealy, but after three passes at his tape I ended up slotting him in as the 32nd prospect on my board. He falls in the solid starter with issues tier.
The biggest reason I have mixed feelings in regards to Ealy is I think he’s playing out of position on most of his college tape. His impressive time (6.83) in the three-cone drill should indicate a dynamic edge rusher. Ealy’s film shows the exact opposite. He struggles to bend the edge, or beat tackles to the outside.
If you have a Netflix account, you have easy access. “Lie to Me” is really underrated, and one that I’ll always recommend. Too bad the show was cancelled, but maybe it’s for the best. You can enjoy three seasons of quality television, and never have to watch it go downhill.
What I’m Watching This Week
Defensive end Kony Ealy of Missouri
Michael Sam gets all the headlines, but Kony Ealy is the Missouri defensive end that will be taken high in the draft. Ealy is the ninth overall prospect, according to Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, and is widely projected as a first round pick.
I’m not nearly as high on Ealy, but after three passes at his tape I ended up slotting him in as the 32nd prospect on my board. He falls in the solid starter with issues tier.
The biggest reason I have mixed feelings in regards to Ealy is I think he’s playing out of position on most of his college tape. His impressive time (6.83) in the three-cone drill should indicate a dynamic edge rusher. Ealy’s film shows the exact opposite. He struggles to bend the edge, or beat tackles to the outside.
Kony Ealy's best NFL fit will be a new role for the former Missouri star (Image: fox sports.com)
While I don’t think Ealy will be double-digit sack player as a traditional defensive end, he could excel in the right role. His build is very similar to two-time Super Bowl winner, Justin Tuck. Ealy is also a disruptive force when moved inside, much like Tuck was during his prime with the Giants. Perhaps Ealy finds a home as a run stopper outside on early downs who moves inside to rush the passer as an under tackle. He also has the frame to add a little bulk, and could thrive as a penetrating five-technique in an aggressive 3-4.
While you are counting on a bit of projection with Ealy in those roles, he has the ability to disrupt offenses. I firmly believe he can be a viable long-term starter in either of those scenarios, but there’s no hard evidence to prove it. That’s why I am currently reviewing his tape again, with an eye towards finding traits for that role.
Panthers Parting Shot
Let me give you two stat lines comprised of separate groups of pass catchers:
Stat Line A: 156 catches 1,983 yards 15 TDs
Stat Line B: 133 catches 1,762 yards 17 TDs
These lines would be very nice if they were made up of a team’s top two receivers. Unfortunately for the Carolina Panthers, they are both comprised form a group of four.
Stat line A is made up of the receivers from the Panthers’ 2013 season. All of them have departed in free agency:
Stat line B comes from the pass catchers Carolina has added for 2014 season:
While there is a drop off in yards and receptions from A to B, neither group is much worse than the other. While group A certainly has bigger names, the production in 2013 between the two is remarkably similar.
Let’s be clear about what this is, and is not. I cover the Panthers for Draft Mecca, but I am also a long time fan. I don’t believe basic stats like these are the end all, be all. I’m just using a tangible number to illustrate an intangible point.
I can’t stand when writers only view everything their team does in a positive light, or suddenly loves a player because he’s a recent addition. I don’t think Ed Dickson is a good player just because my team signed him. Dickson isn’t as athletic as his combine numbers lead you to believe, he has poor hands and isn’t anything close to an acceptable blocker. None of those negatives change just because he’s on my favorite team.
Behaving in the above ways is transparent, and hurts your credibility. I don’t think I am one of those writers, and I am generally very pessimistic towards the Panthers.
I’m not providing you this comparison to say, “Hey, the Panthers are fine, and better off without group A”. I still believe the Panthers’ receiving corps is slightly worse today than it was in 2013. However, the point remains that the group today isn’t far off from what they had last year. And we haven’t even held the draft yet.
Say the Panthers add a player in the second to fifth round who contributes right away—they’ll more than likely take two. If that player earns a role, they’ll be conservatively projected to record around 40 catches 450 yards and three touchdowns. Infuse that with stat line B and you suddenly get better numbers than what the Panthers recorded in 2013.
I’m not trying to tell you the mission is a success; I’m just here to show it’s not over yet. The Panthers have already done a solid job compiling a makeshift group capable of similar production to what they saw last season. There’s still time for the Panthers to add a tandem of Bruce Ellington and Kevin Norwood, or maybe Allen Robinson and Mike Campanaro. If some combination of those four end up in Charlotte, the Panthers are all the sudden cooking with fire.
I’m not here to tell you all is fine, no one is putting on the black and blue glasses. The Panthers still need a lot of help on the offensive side of the ball. I’m just trying to be a voice of reason in a crowd of increasingly lame Panthers’ wide receiver jokes.
While you are counting on a bit of projection with Ealy in those roles, he has the ability to disrupt offenses. I firmly believe he can be a viable long-term starter in either of those scenarios, but there’s no hard evidence to prove it. That’s why I am currently reviewing his tape again, with an eye towards finding traits for that role.
Panthers Parting Shot
Let me give you two stat lines comprised of separate groups of pass catchers:
Stat Line A: 156 catches 1,983 yards 15 TDs
Stat Line B: 133 catches 1,762 yards 17 TDs
These lines would be very nice if they were made up of a team’s top two receivers. Unfortunately for the Carolina Panthers, they are both comprised form a group of four.
Stat line A is made up of the receivers from the Panthers’ 2013 season. All of them have departed in free agency:
- Steve Smith
- Brandon LaFell
- Tedd Ginn Jr.
- Domenik Hixon
Stat line B comes from the pass catchers Carolina has added for 2014 season:
- Jerricho Cotchery
- Jason Avant
- Ed Dickson
- Tiquan Underwood
While there is a drop off in yards and receptions from A to B, neither group is much worse than the other. While group A certainly has bigger names, the production in 2013 between the two is remarkably similar.
Let’s be clear about what this is, and is not. I cover the Panthers for Draft Mecca, but I am also a long time fan. I don’t believe basic stats like these are the end all, be all. I’m just using a tangible number to illustrate an intangible point.
I can’t stand when writers only view everything their team does in a positive light, or suddenly loves a player because he’s a recent addition. I don’t think Ed Dickson is a good player just because my team signed him. Dickson isn’t as athletic as his combine numbers lead you to believe, he has poor hands and isn’t anything close to an acceptable blocker. None of those negatives change just because he’s on my favorite team.
Behaving in the above ways is transparent, and hurts your credibility. I don’t think I am one of those writers, and I am generally very pessimistic towards the Panthers.
I’m not providing you this comparison to say, “Hey, the Panthers are fine, and better off without group A”. I still believe the Panthers’ receiving corps is slightly worse today than it was in 2013. However, the point remains that the group today isn’t far off from what they had last year. And we haven’t even held the draft yet.
Say the Panthers add a player in the second to fifth round who contributes right away—they’ll more than likely take two. If that player earns a role, they’ll be conservatively projected to record around 40 catches 450 yards and three touchdowns. Infuse that with stat line B and you suddenly get better numbers than what the Panthers recorded in 2013.
I’m not trying to tell you the mission is a success; I’m just here to show it’s not over yet. The Panthers have already done a solid job compiling a makeshift group capable of similar production to what they saw last season. There’s still time for the Panthers to add a tandem of Bruce Ellington and Kevin Norwood, or maybe Allen Robinson and Mike Campanaro. If some combination of those four end up in Charlotte, the Panthers are all the sudden cooking with fire.
I’m not here to tell you all is fine, no one is putting on the black and blue glasses. The Panthers still need a lot of help on the offensive side of the ball. I’m just trying to be a voice of reason in a crowd of increasingly lame Panthers’ wide receiver jokes.
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