The Eye in the Sky: Why Defending the Colts Offense is too Easy All-22 Breakdown

By: Matt Harmon
11/13/13

My how things have changed for this Colts team. Heading into their bye week, and coming off a big win over their former franchise quarterback and his Denver Broncos, the Colts were viewed as a favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Since then, the Colts were aided by three missed field goals from Randy Bullock and maybe even Gary Kubiak’s health scare and departure at half time just to barely come back to beat their 2-7 division rival Houston Texans, and were blown out at home by a 4-6 St. Louis Rams team led by Kellen Clemens. It is easy to just blame the Colts subpar defense for their fall from grace, but their true problem lies on the offensive side of the ball. When the Colts lost Reggie Wayne to an ACL tear late in the win over the Broncos, many wondered what affect his departure from the lineup would have on the Colts offense. The answer is clear now; the Colts offense is simply way too easy to defend without Wayne in the lineup. Let’s examine some of this offenses’ deficiencies and issues, and how teams should defend them going forward.

T.Y. Hilton is a Good Player but not a Number One Receiver

The term “number one wide receiver” is thrown around far too often in NFL circles. A number one receiver is not just a team’s best or top receiver; a number one receiver is someone who dictates the opposition’s defensive coverage, consistently draws double teams, and excels at most all aspects of being a receiver in the National Football League. The number one receiver is a rare breed, and not every team is blessed with having one. T.Y. Hilton, by that definition, does not profile as a number one wide receiver. Since Reggie Wayne has left the lineup Hilton has picked up the slack from a statistical standpoint, tallying 251 yards and three touchdowns on 14 catches the past two weeks. However, Hilton has not filled Wayne’s shoes when it comes to drawing defensive attention, consistently beating man coverage, or being a guy Andrew Luck can trust in key situations to move the chains. When watching the last two Colts games, you notice that most of the plays Hilton is successful on include plays designed to get him open in space such as bubble and outside screens, nine routes, and slants to the middle of the field and the soft spots in zone defenses. Hilton is a very fast player who can use his speed to outrun defenders on those plays, but on plays where Hilton is not running those types of routes, he is not consistently getting open or being targeted by his quarterback.
Hilton is also having trouble separating from tight man coverage and is disrupted when teams have decided to press him, and because of his size, it is fair to wonder if Hilton will ever develop the ability to overcome those coverages. The Rams in Week Ten did not play much man coverage, but in the first half of their Week Nine game, the Texans played primarily man coverage versus the Colts, and Hilton responded with a pretty quiet first half. This play demonstrates some of the troubles Hilton could face if teams decide to jam him within the legal limit of five yards within the line of scrimmage:

Hilton comes off the line of scrimmage, but has trouble once the cornerback gets his hands on him. Hilton is forced to redirect his route to the outside once he gets free, but by then has already been taken out of the play, and Luck is looking elsewhere. Even when he is not pressed, and gets a clean release, he has trouble creating much space in man coverage. On this play against the Texans, Hilton is going to run a corner route into the end zone:

Hilton is isolated with one cornerback in the back of the end zone, but despite being a fast player, does not create the separation needed for Luck to have a great target to throw to for a touchdown:

Granted, the throw Hilton receives from Luck is not perfect, and he does not get a great chance at it since Luck is being pressured by a six-man blitz, but the throw is not really the point here. If Hilton was a bigger target like say an A.J. Green or even Brandon Marshall type of receiver (lofty comparisons, but perfect examples of number one receivers), he would be in better position to turn this play into six. Even if Hilton was able to get himself more open, he may have presented his quarterback with a better option in the end zone. Instead, Hilton is blanketed in tight man coverage by Houston’s third best cornerback.
T.Y. Hilton is certainly a nice player, and one the Colts can build with for the next decade, but to think he is number one receiver, or a capable replacement to Reggie Wayne would be foolish based off his tape. Similar to player like DeSean Jackson, you can scheme Hilton open underneath, and he can use his great speed to get open, but he does not fit the mold of a number one receiver in the NFL.

Offensive Line Woes

The Colts offensive line is ranked as Pro Football Focus’ fifth worst pass protecting offensive line and are rated as a middle of the pack unit in the run-blocking department. The tape backs up those rankings, and shows a unit that really struggles in both aspects of the game and is actually getting worse since last "The Eye in the Sky" looked down on them. It is easy to say that the Colts offensive line struggled because the Rams field two of the best pass rushing defensive ends in the game, including Defensive Player of the Year candidate Robert Quinn. And while, Quinn did have his way with the Colts offensive line, the Colts edge protectors are not even putting up quality efforts against lesser opponents. Check out this play where none of the Rams starting defensive linemen are on the field:

Backup right end, Eugene Sims, is going to take a basic speed rush around the left tackle, while backup left end, William Hayes, is going to bull rush the right tackle back into Andrew Luck:

It is not often you see both starting tackles beat on the same play, but that is exactly what happens here, and consequently Luck rushes the throw and misfires. The Colts two starting tackles are Anthony Costanzo and Gosder Cherilus, one of whom the Colts drafted in the first round and the other they paid big money to in free agency, respectively. Players with their pedigree should not be beat by depth players on other rosters, no matter how quality that depth is. The constant pressure these two former high draft picks have allowed on the Colts franchise quarterback is inexcusable.
The Colts line is not much better with their run blocking. While they are better run blockers than pass protectors, some of their poor run blocking mistakes stand out because of just how ugly they are. The Colts guards, rookie Hugh Thornton and veteran Mike McGlynn, are both poor players right now, and neither is a reliable road grader the Colts can run behind; though Thornton could develop in coming seasons. One thing that both players struggle with is engaging and getting their hands on defenders to sustain and hold their blocks. Too often these two are beat too quickly because they either do not get their hands on defensive lineman at all, or cannot hold those blocks even if they manage to engage. Take this third down run for example:

Hugh Thornton is beat almost as soon as the ball is snapped. Rams defensive tackle, Michael Brockers manages to run right by Thornton and make the stop on the running back two yards behind the line of scrimmage without so much as a challenge. The interior of the Colts offensive line is frequently allowing defensive lineman to blow up running plays behind the line of scrimmage because of their inability to engage, and only allowing for short rushing gains because of their inability to hold blocks. The lines inability to block is a part of, but certainly not the whole, story behind why the Colts are struggling to run the ball.

Scheme, Identity, and Personnel issues

The Colts are really lacking a true identity as an offense right now. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has insisted on trying to turn this Colts team into a power running based offense, but they really do not have the personnel for that. The Colts offensive line is unable to run block effectively, and their primary running back is not running with any power or authority. Trent Richardson is not running with burst and power through holes, and is instead dancing behind the line while indecisively looking for a hole to run through. Richardson’s near ineffectiveness has made any plans the Colts had of being a power running team almost completely impossible to fulfill, and has forced the offense to rely on significant contributions from Donald Brown, who up to this point has been a bust as a first round pick. Richardson was supposed to be something of a tone setter when he came over in the blockbuster trade from Cleveland; instead he has been a poster boy for this offense’s identity crisis.
Another perfect representation of the Colts offense’s issues is their tight end, Coby Fleener. Fleener is an athletic tight end with great size, who in theory would be effective split out in the slot and away from the offensive line. However, too often the Colts deploy him like a traditional inline tight end. Fleener is nothing short of a poor run blocker, who gets beat consistently by almost every player he faces. This player has been miscast in this role by the coaching staff and is a liability whenever he is asked to play the role of an inline tight end. Even when he does get the chance to play as a move tight end, Fleener is simply another player, like Hilton but to a lesser extent, who has filled up stat sheets at times this season, but whose tape tells a very different story. The tape shows a player who is painfully unphysical, both as a run blocker and as a pass catcher. Fleener does not break tackles after he catches the ball, and really struggles to make catches in traffic and fight for the ball. Consider this play where Fleener runs a route into the end zone:

The linebacker passes off Fleener to the safety, Darian Stewart, in zone coverage who immediately comes up to challenge him. Fleener is not aggressive in his attempt to shake off the safety’s coverage, but Luck still gives the big target a chance at a fifty-fifty ball:

The safety is the more aggressive player on this play, and Fleener does a horrendous job fighting for this pass in traffic. Fleener does not display the strong hands to pluck this ball out of the air, and stake his claim to it for a touchdown. Even if he is not wide open, he has at least six inches or more on Stewart, and should be able to make a better attempt on this ball. Instead Stewart pops the ball into the air, and linebacker Will Witherspoon subsequently intercepts it. Most of his successful plays against the Rams came on plays when he runs a short curl route, turned and faced the line of scrimmage to haul in a quick pass, and be tackled immediately. That is it. Fleener’s miscast role and lack of physicality in this offense sheds light on another player this team desperately misses, fellow second year tight end Dwayne Allen. Allen, lost for the season in Week One, is a solid all around tight end, and excels at the weakest parts of Coby Fleener’s game; run blocking, breaking tackles, and making catches in traffic. With Allen in the fold, this offense may not be in the dire straights it finds itself wading through today.

The Colts Need Andrew Luck to be Perfect

With everything else crumbling on offense, the Colts essentially need Andrew Luck to play flawlessly in order to win games. That is an awful lot to put on a second year quarterback’s plate, no matter how advanced or rare a talent he may be. For six quarters of the last two weeks, Luck has not played to perfection or anywhere close. Luck struggled to move the offense in the first half against Houston and the team headed into the locker room down 21 to 3. Of course, in the second half, Luck put in a near flawless performance and engineered one of his vintage fourth quarter comebacks to lead the Colts to a win. In the loss to the Rams, that flawless Andrew Luck was nowhere to be found. Under intense pressure, he missed throws, made poor reads, and threw two of three interceptions that were almost completely on him. Luck is already one of the best in NFL at climbing the pocket, but when the Rams pressure schemes did not allow him to do that, many of his passes uncharacteristically sailed over his receivers. With poor pass protection, no running game, and no reliable number one receiver to lean on, the Colts offense needs Andrew Luck to be perfect in order to win games; a task way too tall for most any quarterback. If Luck cannot play to that too lofty standard, we could see more outcomes like the blowout the Colts received at the hands of the Rams.

Conclusion: How Should Teams Play this Offense Going Forward?
Given all the deficiencies listed, it should not be too hard to stop the Colts offense. The best way to defend this offense is to strictly focus on stopping their passing game. Dare them to run. There is no need to dedicate extra men in the box to defend the run until Trent Richardson shows something more than the next to nothing he has contributed as a Colt. It would even be advisable to instruct your defensive lineman to play the run on the way to the quarterback. With their offensive line’s inability to engage or hold blocks, and Richardson’s lack of decisiveness to find or bust through the hole, defensive linemen and linebackers would likely still be able to bring down Richardson before he is surging past them to the second level of the defense. When defending the pass, do so by deploying mostly man coverage, and primarily rushing your four down lineman, while mixing in a timely fifth blitzer to allow your guys to beat The Colts’ offensive lineman, or their poor blocker at tight end, in one-on-one matchups. Tight press-man coverage should frustrate T.Y. Hilton, and force Luck to look to more unreliable targets like the drop happy Darius Heyward-Bey or Griff Whalen, who is not even doing enough to even garner any lazy Wes Welker-slot receiver comparisons. Coby Fleener has also proven unreliable as anything beyond a guy who can catch a few passes on curl routes and be tackled right away. Teams that can rush the quarterback, and play press coverage should find this team a surprisingly easy one to beat.
Make no mistake, with the state of this offense, and a middling at best defense, this Colts team looks nothing like the Super Bowl contender many believed it to be a few short weeks ago. Things are so bad right now with how easy it is to defend the Colts offense not only is it hard to imagine them advancing anywhere past the first round of the playoffs, but they may find it tough just to actually get in. The Colts are not a very good team right now, and do not be surprised if it lands them on the outside looking in come January.

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