Reception Perception: Kamar Aiken is the answer to the Ravens receiver riddle
By: Matt Harmon
June 16, 2016
June 16, 2016
Kamar Aiken has all the tools to lead the Ravens in receiving and be breakout player in fantasy leagues (Image: Baltimore Ravens)
More than a few weird things get said in our Fantasy Stronghold at NFL Media. Whether it’s an off the wall comment about a fellow co-worker, a baseless life opinion or an unreasonable scorching hot take about a player, we’re known to go a little off the map.
As such, when Matt Franciscovich proclaimed then unknown Ravens wide receiver Kamar Aiken a sleeper during the preseason, we were quick to shrug it off. After all, at the time Aiken had a whopping 24 career catches over four NFL seasons and seemed to be starting for Baltimore only by default. Perhaps Franchise already heard Steve Smith dismiss that idea, seemingly insisting that Aiken more than earned the gig. Injuries assured Aiken never gave the role up with both Smith and Breshad Perriman eventually landing on Injured Reserve.
Franchise was ultimately vindicated as Aiken became a major fantasy factor down the stretch, prompting one of the best NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast rants ever. Aiken averaged over 10 targets per game during the final eight weeks of the season and in total finished as the WR27 in PPR leagues. That second-half tirade came while catching passes from Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett and even Jimmy Clausen.
Since the conclusion of the 2015 season, the Ravens added multiple layers of options to their offense. Deep threat wideouts Mike Wallace (free agency) and Chris Moore (fourth-round draft pick) bolstered the receiving corps, while they welcomed back Smith and Perriman from injury. Baltimore also added Ben Watson and Kenneth Dixon to their already crowded tight end and running back meeting rooms. Suddenly Baltimore’s offense is a riddle of a chore to project.
What we do know is that the answer to that riddle will matter a great deal. As Chris Raybon noted, Marc Trestman's offenses ranked in the top-half of the NFL in pass attempts in all of his 10 seasons as a play-caller. In his first year there, Baltimore led the league last season. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were both top-eight fantasy receivers in 2013. Even the greatest of all time, Jerry Rice, enjoyed his best statistical season under Trestman’s watch, recording career-highs in yards and receptions in 1995. Volume and receiving production will be plentiful in Baltimore in 2016.
Once again, Kamar Aiken fell through the cracks. Fantasy football drafters chased the mystique of Perriman while news writers naturally assumed Smith would reclaim the top spot. Even Mike Wallace gets some burn as a sleeper who fits well with Joe Flacco’s big arm.
Yet, the truth is that Kamar Aiken was the answer to the riddle all along. The journeyman did more than just produce with volume last year. He legitimately broke out.
Reception Perception is able to divorce exterior variables like quarterback play and volume to give a true glimpse into a wide receiver’s performance. For Kamar Aiken’s eight-game sample, we took four games from the first half of the season when he was an ancillary piece and four from the second half when he was featured. The final results were quite striking.
As such, when Matt Franciscovich proclaimed then unknown Ravens wide receiver Kamar Aiken a sleeper during the preseason, we were quick to shrug it off. After all, at the time Aiken had a whopping 24 career catches over four NFL seasons and seemed to be starting for Baltimore only by default. Perhaps Franchise already heard Steve Smith dismiss that idea, seemingly insisting that Aiken more than earned the gig. Injuries assured Aiken never gave the role up with both Smith and Breshad Perriman eventually landing on Injured Reserve.
Franchise was ultimately vindicated as Aiken became a major fantasy factor down the stretch, prompting one of the best NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast rants ever. Aiken averaged over 10 targets per game during the final eight weeks of the season and in total finished as the WR27 in PPR leagues. That second-half tirade came while catching passes from Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett and even Jimmy Clausen.
Since the conclusion of the 2015 season, the Ravens added multiple layers of options to their offense. Deep threat wideouts Mike Wallace (free agency) and Chris Moore (fourth-round draft pick) bolstered the receiving corps, while they welcomed back Smith and Perriman from injury. Baltimore also added Ben Watson and Kenneth Dixon to their already crowded tight end and running back meeting rooms. Suddenly Baltimore’s offense is a riddle of a chore to project.
What we do know is that the answer to that riddle will matter a great deal. As Chris Raybon noted, Marc Trestman's offenses ranked in the top-half of the NFL in pass attempts in all of his 10 seasons as a play-caller. In his first year there, Baltimore led the league last season. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were both top-eight fantasy receivers in 2013. Even the greatest of all time, Jerry Rice, enjoyed his best statistical season under Trestman’s watch, recording career-highs in yards and receptions in 1995. Volume and receiving production will be plentiful in Baltimore in 2016.
Once again, Kamar Aiken fell through the cracks. Fantasy football drafters chased the mystique of Perriman while news writers naturally assumed Smith would reclaim the top spot. Even Mike Wallace gets some burn as a sleeper who fits well with Joe Flacco’s big arm.
Yet, the truth is that Kamar Aiken was the answer to the riddle all along. The journeyman did more than just produce with volume last year. He legitimately broke out.
Reception Perception is able to divorce exterior variables like quarterback play and volume to give a true glimpse into a wide receiver’s performance. For Kamar Aiken’s eight-game sample, we took four games from the first half of the season when he was an ancillary piece and four from the second half when he was featured. The final results were quite striking.
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In contrast to his fellow Baltimore receivers, Aiken’s appeal lies in his ability to play multiple receiver spots. He nearly split his time right down the middle between playing off and on the line of scrimmage. The Ravens don’t have a proven slot receiver, although former seventh-rounder Michael Campanaro is intriguing, and Aiken already took over 21 percent of his snaps in this sample from the interior. If forced to project, his best long term and likely 2016 home will be as a starting flanker who can move to the slot in three-wide sets.
As a journeyman undrafted player, Aiken’s ability to learn multiple receiver positions was a key in ascending to a starting spot in Baltimore. Just as important as versatility is reliability. Drops are an overrated evaluation point at the position, but there’s no denying that a long-shot player can endear himself to his coaches with clean hands.
The Ravens quarterbacks targeted Aiken on 20.4 percent of his 275 routes in this Reception Perception sample. He posted a drop rate of just 1.8. Working his way up the ranks as a former special teamer, it’s quite clear Aiken put the time in to work on crafting extremely proficient hand technique.
Even more surprising than his strong hands was Kamar Aiken’s ability as a route-runner. Here he displayed consistent physicality, technique and short-area quickness to execute a variety of assignments.
As a journeyman undrafted player, Aiken’s ability to learn multiple receiver positions was a key in ascending to a starting spot in Baltimore. Just as important as versatility is reliability. Drops are an overrated evaluation point at the position, but there’s no denying that a long-shot player can endear himself to his coaches with clean hands.
The Ravens quarterbacks targeted Aiken on 20.4 percent of his 275 routes in this Reception Perception sample. He posted a drop rate of just 1.8. Working his way up the ranks as a former special teamer, it’s quite clear Aiken put the time in to work on crafting extremely proficient hand technique.
Even more surprising than his strong hands was Kamar Aiken’s ability as a route-runner. Here he displayed consistent physicality, technique and short-area quickness to execute a variety of assignments.
As with most NFL receivers, Aiken primarily ran the slant, curl and nine routes in his Reception Perception sample. His high volume of go routes at 26.5 percent might surprise some given his background as a special teamer. However, don’t forget that Aiken has a few intriguing data points in his athletic profile.
While he was not invited to the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine, Aiken did rip off a 4.45 40-yard dash and record a broad jump of 128 inches. The 6’2, 215-pound wideout has a height-adjusted speed score in the 85th percentile, per Player Profiler. We know the Ravens like to take deep shots, and Aiken has the tangible athletic traits to contribute in that area.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Aiken mixed in a decent variety of out-breaking routes. He charted out above the league average on out and flat routes. However, his primary assignment will be on in-breaking routes like the slant and curl, where he came out several percentage points above the NFL average usage. It’s an assignment he executed with proficiency last season.
While he was not invited to the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine, Aiken did rip off a 4.45 40-yard dash and record a broad jump of 128 inches. The 6’2, 215-pound wideout has a height-adjusted speed score in the 85th percentile, per Player Profiler. We know the Ravens like to take deep shots, and Aiken has the tangible athletic traits to contribute in that area.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Aiken mixed in a decent variety of out-breaking routes. He charted out above the league average on out and flat routes. However, his primary assignment will be on in-breaking routes like the slant and curl, where he came out several percentage points above the NFL average usage. It’s an assignment he executed with proficiency last season.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Kamar Aiken’s 83.6 and 82.2 percent Success Rate Versus Coverage scores on slant and curl routes, respectively, were outstanding. Both figures were well above the NFL average SRVC on those patterns. Showing the nuance to sell the vertical route and deceive the defender, Aiken has a great hard step to cut open on both curl and slant routes.
In a recent podcast appearance, PhiladelphiaEagles.com analyst Fran Duffy asked me what routes really give a hint to how good of a route runner a receiver is. In my opinion, they are the out and comeback. Kamar Aiken posted 86.7 and 90 percent SRVC scores on those routes. He more than bested the 73.7 and 68.1 percent NFL average figures on the out and comeback. Aiken was also quite productive on the deep out pattern, scoring 20.6 PPR fantasy points.
The only branch of the tree where Aiken scored below the NFL average was the dig, which comprised just 2.2 percent of his 275 routes. He was within one percentage of the league average on both nine and corner routes. Harkening back to his deep ability, with a 50.7 percent SRVC on go routes and 76.9 on posts Aiken can certainly function as a vertical threat with Joe Flacco back under center. Mike Wallace will be the primary asset here, but Aiken can do more than just pick up some scraps.
As a player evaluation process, Reception Perception can be quite revealing when the final results come together. On both the positive and negative front, observers can come away surprised with how a player truly performs on a route-to-route basis. It’s more than fair to say that for most, Kamar Aiken’s results will fall into that category on the former front.
In a recent podcast appearance, PhiladelphiaEagles.com analyst Fran Duffy asked me what routes really give a hint to how good of a route runner a receiver is. In my opinion, they are the out and comeback. Kamar Aiken posted 86.7 and 90 percent SRVC scores on those routes. He more than bested the 73.7 and 68.1 percent NFL average figures on the out and comeback. Aiken was also quite productive on the deep out pattern, scoring 20.6 PPR fantasy points.
The only branch of the tree where Aiken scored below the NFL average was the dig, which comprised just 2.2 percent of his 275 routes. He was within one percentage of the league average on both nine and corner routes. Harkening back to his deep ability, with a 50.7 percent SRVC on go routes and 76.9 on posts Aiken can certainly function as a vertical threat with Joe Flacco back under center. Mike Wallace will be the primary asset here, but Aiken can do more than just pick up some scraps.
As a player evaluation process, Reception Perception can be quite revealing when the final results come together. On both the positive and negative front, observers can come away surprised with how a player truly performs on a route-to-route basis. It’s more than fair to say that for most, Kamar Aiken’s results will fall into that category on the former front.
(Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.)
Aiken’s SRVC scores underscore what the vast majority of the football community seemed to miss out on last season. Under adverse conditions, this was a player who legitimately established himself as an NFL starter.
When he runs routes from the slot this season, his ability to sift through zones with a 75.5 percent SRVC will help him work through traffic. However, Aiken is far from a limited possession or short area receiver. His 68.9 percent SRVC against man defenses is a good amount above the NFL average. Defeating tight physical coverage is no issue for the technically disciplined Aiken. Most of his routes will likely come stationed off the line of scrimmage, but his SRVC against press was right in line with the league average.
With every other member of the Ravens receiving corps littered with questions, Kamar Aiken should be considered the favorite to lead the team in targets. The sixth-year pro gave the evidence in his SRVC scores that he can fulfill that task. With a well-rounded skill set and consistent success on a variety of routes facing multiple forms of coverages, Aiken can surprise those sleeping on him.
For a comparison, Kamar Aiken’s Reception Perception results were quite similar to those of a popular breakout candidate in Colts wideout Donte Moncrief. Of course, the draft pedigree and attachment to Andrew Luck brings plenty of rightful attention to Moncrief. However, in light of Aiken’s stunning Reception Perception evaluation and his spot near or atop of the pecking order in Marc Trestman’s voluminous passing game, it’s time to place him right alongside in those breakout lists.
External factors and internal strong play in an emergence are lining up to paint a clear path for Kamar Aiken to walk down to success in 2016. When projecting the muddled Baltimore skill-position players, the positive outlooks start with Aiken.
When he runs routes from the slot this season, his ability to sift through zones with a 75.5 percent SRVC will help him work through traffic. However, Aiken is far from a limited possession or short area receiver. His 68.9 percent SRVC against man defenses is a good amount above the NFL average. Defeating tight physical coverage is no issue for the technically disciplined Aiken. Most of his routes will likely come stationed off the line of scrimmage, but his SRVC against press was right in line with the league average.
With every other member of the Ravens receiving corps littered with questions, Kamar Aiken should be considered the favorite to lead the team in targets. The sixth-year pro gave the evidence in his SRVC scores that he can fulfill that task. With a well-rounded skill set and consistent success on a variety of routes facing multiple forms of coverages, Aiken can surprise those sleeping on him.
For a comparison, Kamar Aiken’s Reception Perception results were quite similar to those of a popular breakout candidate in Colts wideout Donte Moncrief. Of course, the draft pedigree and attachment to Andrew Luck brings plenty of rightful attention to Moncrief. However, in light of Aiken’s stunning Reception Perception evaluation and his spot near or atop of the pecking order in Marc Trestman’s voluminous passing game, it’s time to place him right alongside in those breakout lists.
External factors and internal strong play in an emergence are lining up to paint a clear path for Kamar Aiken to walk down to success in 2016. When projecting the muddled Baltimore skill-position players, the positive outlooks start with Aiken.
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