Playoffs- Divisional Round NFL Preview

By: Matt Harmon

The Five Major Storylines

Peyton Manning’s legacy. There is no denying Manning has a ton on the line in this game. Despite just having the best regular season in quarterbacking history, Manning will be skewered if the Broncos suffer another first round playoff loss. Manning’s supposed history as a playoff choker is well documented. Another early exit would be a disaster for Peyton.
Playoff rematches. Three out of the four divisional round games feature teams that met during the regular season. That reality means there are plenty of preexisting data points to analyze when breaking down these games. However, everything changes in the NFL postseason. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of the results will be different this time around.
Seattle’s road to MetLife Stadium begins. Ever since early in the season The Seahawks has been penciled in to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Given their ridiculous home field advantage, and their status as the number one seed, everything seems to be in place. Rarely do things go to script in the NFL playoffs, however. If Seattle loses, there is going to plenty of crow to go around for the quick-triggered analysts.
Offensive line play. One correlation the past few Super Bowl winners share is that they all got very strong postseason play from their offensive lines. The position grouping is a very weak one around the league right now in general. Keep an eye on each team’s offensive line this weekend to see if they can carry strong performances into February.
Cam Newton versus Colin Kaepernick. You would have thought this debate had ended by now. Cam Newton is a superior quarterback to Colin Kaepernick at this point in their careers. Yet, Rotoworld’s Josh Norris and I caused a small stir on Twitter Thursday evening when we voiced this. The statistics paint a false story in favor of the 49ers quarterback. However, Cam has had the better 2013 season, on a far less talented offense. He is light years ahead of Kaepernick in the mental aspect of the game--such as going through progressions and reading defenses. It is worth watching, as they meet for the second time, who will come away victorious in this game.

The Best Matchups to Watch in Each Game
1) Bruce Irvin vs. Terron Armstead

Bruce Irvin is my favorite X-factor on a loaded Seahawks defense. People do not seem to be talking about it, but Irvin has had an outstanding first season at outside linebacker. He has been solid against the run, and has been remarkably good in coverage. Of course, he is still deadly when deployed as a pass rusher. The Seahawks sent him on a few timely blitzes in the first meeting with New Orleans:

Here the Seahawks send their right defensive end on an inside rush, and bring Irvin off the edge. Former Saints starting left tackle, Charles Brown, had a very bad habit of misidentifying where the rush was coming from. He follows Michael Bennett inside, and gives up a ton of real estate to Irvin. By the time Brown realizes Irvin is coming, he is too far out of position to recover:

Drew Brees, as he so often does, gets rid of the ball before the sack can occur. However, he settles for a short attempt on this play, when he was looking to go deep. Plays like this are what can derail an offense like the Saints, and the Seahawks will surely look to incorporate Irvin into their game plan again.
Since this loss, Terron Armstead has replaced turnstile, Charles Brown, at left tackle. Armstead had a rough first game, but bounced back very nicely with a solid outing last week. Armstead’s footwork in pass protection was very impressive, and he did not give pass rushers a ton depth to work with. He more than held his own against the Eagles’ Trent Cole. The Saints will require another performance like that from their rookie tackle if they have any hope of upsetting the Seahawks.

2) T.Y. Hilton vs. Aqib Talib

Without question, this is the chess match of the game, and maybe the week. Bill Belichick often looks to take away what his opponent’s offense does best, and Hilton is clearly the Colts’ most dangerous threat. The trouble for Belichick is that he might not have the horses to take away Hilton completely. The Patriots’ top corner, Aqib Talib, has not been the same since returning from a hip injury. Talib noticeably struggled against another smaller receiver in Carolina’s Steve Smith:

Talib was often left on an island with Smith in the Patriots loss to the Panthers. With the nickel cornerback coming on a blitz, the free safety is tasked with covering with the slot receiver. The other safety, superstar Devin McCourty, is patrolling the other side of the field. Belichick thought he would be fine with his best corner over top of Smith. It turns out that assumption was incorrect:

Talib is a big, physical corner. He is at his best when he can use his hands on receivers at the line of scrimmage. Steve Smith is not nearly the speed demon he once was, but he is able to get past the hobbled corner. Talib is doomed from the start, as his hips are far too wide in the first image. He allows Smith to get outside of him, and the rest is just a foot race. Cam Newton reads the defense perfectly, and lobs a nice deep ball right to Smith’s waiting arms.
While Talib has still been able to hold his own against big receivers this season, it is fair to wonder just how he will fair against a jitterbug type like T.Y. Hilton. Bill Belichick would be wise to incorporate other players, such as McCourty, into his defense of Hilton. Otherwise, we could see another monster effort by the young Colts receiver.

3) Cam Newton vs. the 49ers front seven

The Panthers beat the 49ers, in their house, already this season. However, their quarterback had a pretty uninspiring day. Newton struggled under pressure against the 49ers, and this was before Aldon Smith had returned to dominant form. When Newton watched film in preparation for this week, he should have been paying close attention to Aaron Rodgers’ performance against this bunch:

Rodgers made several plays with his legs in the pocket against the 49ers. Here the Niners sent a corner on a blitz. The Packers left tackle fails to pick the corner up and he gets a free release on Rodgers. As cool as he could be, Rodgers eludes the defender, and causes him to whiff. Here is where this applies to Cam Newton. After Rodgers makes the defender miss, he keeps his eyes downfield. At first glance it looks like there is a ton of space for him to run to the first down marker. The 49ers linebacking corps is so fast and athletic the best option is to ignore the instincts to take off. By doing so, Rodgers allows himself the opportunity for a huge passing play:

With the quarterback buying time in the pocket, the receiver is afforded more time to get open. Randall Cobb knows the play has been extended, and is able to work back to his quarterback. Cobb breaks on his route and is able to shake his defender for a key conversion on fourth down.
Cam Newton needs to emulate Rodger’s style on Sunday. Newton has been very good throughout his career of only taking off as a last resort, and keeping his eyes downfield. He must continue that trend. The Panthers’ weapons do not match up well with the 49ers defense, but if Newton buys time, they gain an advantage. If Newton can string together half the game Rodgers did last week, the Panthers should advance to the next round.

4) Ryan Mathews and the Chargers offensive line vs. the Broncos defense

Ryan Mathews played a key role in the Chargers upset over the Broncos in the regular season. He pummeled Denver on the ground, and his running kept Peyton Manning off the field. The Chargers will be hoping Mathews is healthy enough to make more highlight reel runs like this:

On this play, Mathews actually bails out his offensive line. The call is a power run out of the shotgun. The San Diego offensive line and Antonio Gates all block off the run to left side of the formation. Ladarius Green is sent across the line to seal of the backside edge of the play. However, Malik Jackson (highlighted in red) blows past the line into the backfield. Jackson has been very good this season and looks as if he has made another big play here:

The play is now all on Mathews. He rises to the challenge and shakes off a man who has about a one hundred pound size advantage over him. Mathews then uses great vision to take advantage of Green’s block. The Chargers running back goes sprinting past the defense for eighteen yards and a first down.
The Chargers will likely look to replicate their week fifteen formula that worked against Denver. Provided their reborn running back is healthy, he should be the focal point of the offense. Denver has players like Jackson, and Terrance Knighton who can be disruptive against the run. San Diego’s offensive line will need to help out Ryan Mathews in this match up.

My meaningless picks that you don’t care about:

Seahawks
Colts
Panthers
Broncos

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