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  • Backyard Banter Podcast
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 54: Kyle Crabbs - Build my own chair at the table
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 53: James Koh - Divorce the information from emotion
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 52: Will Brinson - That's how it'll have to be
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 51: Charles McDonald - Not an escape from reality
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 50: What you've learned - For you, by you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 49: Jourdan Rodrigue - Let's see what you think then
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 48: Justin Twell - Long process to come back
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 47: Justin Lonero - It's time to relearn life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 46: Scott Bischoff - Life presented the greatest challenge possible
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 45: Al Zeidenfeld - Little steps along the way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 44: Jason Romano - Just a different dream
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 43: Matt Harmon - But here we are (Season 1 finale)
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 42: Gregg Rosenthal - I have to make it work or else
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 41: Jon Moore - Determiner of what I want
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 40: Uncle Chaps - Just have fun with it
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 39: Bob Harris - The best addiction I've ever had
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 38: Scott Fish - Everybody working together to make this big
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 37: Jene Bramel - Ask the questions you want answered
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 36: Mike Tagliere - Never going to leave this candy store
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 35: Ben Cummins - Starting at ground zero
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 34: Field Yates - It's the nature of what we do
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 33: Chris Heil - I gave it everything I had
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 32: Sal Stefanile - Just make them notice you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 31: Adam Levitan - Accept an alternate lifestyle
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 30: Matthew Freedman - It's not built for everyone
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 29: George Kritikos - If your heart's not in it people notice
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 28: Marcas Grant - Certainly never expected this
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 27: Steve Palazzolo - I understand the questions that come
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 26: Matt Miller - To build bridges not burn them
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 25: Graham Barfield - A human game played by humans
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 24: Pat Daugherty - I just said yes to everything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 23: Eric Galko - There's always work to be done
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 22: TJ Hernandez - In some roundabout way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 21: Alex Gelhar - Homework for the rest of your life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 20: The Fantasy Footballers - Because we were fans
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 19: Jessica Kleinschmidt - The scariest person you deal with is yourself
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 18: Evan Silva - A willingness to work hard
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 17: Jeff Risdon - It's hard to be in the middle
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 16: Cecil Lammey - Because I didn't ask for anything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 15: Patrick Claybon - If you shine people will see you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 14: Denny Carter - People want to know you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 13: Adam Rank - Honestly just don't go away
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 12: Adam Pfeifer - Being happy is doing this
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 11: Mark Schofield - You get one drive in this life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 10: Liz Loza - Ride the horse in the direction it's going
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 9: Matthew Berry - I've done it without being negative to anyone
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 8: Matt Franciscovich - Persistence is a huge deal
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 7: Matt Williamson - I got lucky, but I made my own luck
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 6: Eric Stoner - Passions are best left as hobbies
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 5: Josh Norris - You don't have to have an opinion on everything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 4: Rumford Johnny - Elevate somebody or get out of their way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 3: JJ Zachariason - No one cares because you're not established
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 2: Matt Waldman - Popular doesn't necessarily make it good
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 1 - Sigmund Bloom
  • Fantasy Hipsters
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 28: We''l see you in a bit.
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 27: "Ehhh how about you people relax with that one"
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 26: Mail Satchel - Davante Adams debate & "friends of the show"
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 25: NFL Network's Top 100 Players This or That
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 24: Mail Satchel - Surviving without Charlie and Tight Ends to Watch
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 23: Jeremy Maclin reaction, news recap and did Harmon pull off that hat?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 22: Mail satchel - WE ARE THE PODCAST OF THE PEOPLE
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 21: Reception Perception review of sleepers, breakouts and surprises
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 20: Evan Silva destroys our MFL10 hopes and dreams
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 19: Mail satchel - Will Brandon Marshall thrive with the Giants in 2017?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 18: We Are Pretty Mad
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 17: Mail satchel - Rompers, clean eating and the 2007 NFL Draft class
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 16: NFL depth chart breakdowns and being sick of bad Eddie Lacy jokes
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 15: Mail satchel - Drafting too many rookies, breakouts and bell-cow RBs
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 14: French press vs. pour over coffee & mock draft review with James Koh
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 13: Mail satchel - Los Angeles Chargers the hipster's team of 2017?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 12: NFL Draft rookie fits and a cast iron running back with Matt Waldman
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 11: NFL Draft preview and drumset vomit with Josh Norris of Rotoworld
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast Episode 10: Mail satchel - Dynasty debate, bad impressions and hipster bands
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 9: Perfect Prospect Parings — identifying NFL fits for draft prospects
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 8: Corey Davis, DeVante Parker and what to drink at your draft
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 7: Carlos Hyde, Laquon Treadwell and NFL Draft rookie big board part 3
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 6: Valuing Jordan Howard for 2017 and NFL Draft rookie big board part 2
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 5: NFL Draft rookie top-12 big board and in-depth beer interview
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 4: Kaepernick saga, Harmon shaves his beard and Franchise gets roasted
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast Episode 3: Eddie Lacy, Free Agency, music & beer and picking best QB roommate
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 2: Early Free Agency Fallout, Combine Standouts & Mailbag
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 1: NFL Scouting Combine preview and washed vets
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast: Teaser episode introduction
  • Reception Perception: 2017
    • Reception Perception: Investigating any correlation between the results and draft prospect age
  • The 2016 Reception Perception Project
    • Reception Perception: 11 flags planted for the 2016 season
    • Reception Perception: Nelson Agholor can bounce-back in Doug Pederson's offense
    • Reception Perception: Improved technician Donte Moncrief is set to explode in 2016
    • Reception Perception: Only one concern can hold Sammy Watkins back from his ceiling
    • Reception Perception: Bruce Ellington has a chance to flash this season with the 49ers
    • Reception Perception: Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther
    • Reception Perception: Willie Snead built an impressive resume we must not ignore
    • Reception Perception: Welcome the ascending Tyler Lockett to rarified status
    • Reception Perception: Kamar Aiken is the answer to the Ravens receiver riddle
    • Reception Perception: DeSean Jackson and Josh Doctson make the Washington wide receivers a strength
    • Reception Perception: Browns make a refreshing first pick in Corey Coleman
    • Reception Perception: The fruitless search for fatal flaws with Laquon Treadwell
    • Reception Perception: Why there will never be a cumulative or overall grade
    • Reception Perception: The changing variables for Torrey Smith point to a rebound
    • Reception Perception: 2016 media appearances
    • Reception Perception: Rashard Higgins - never tell me the odds
    • Reception Perception: Keyarris Garrett is a unicorn in this draft class
    • Reception Perception: Malcolm Mitchell is a top-10 receiver in the 2016 NFL Draft
    • Reception Perception: 2016 NFL draft prospects results
    • Reception Perception: Golden Tate won't be able to replace Calvin Johnson
    • Reception Perception: Jeff Janis, trump cards and sorting through the noise
    • Reception Perception: Top-four college receiver primer
  • The 2015 Reception Perception Project
    • Reception Perception Based Media Appearances
    • Reception Perception: Steve Johnson is the Surest Sleeper Around
    • Reception Perception: Target and Contested Catch Data for Sophomore WRs
    • Reception Perception: Success Rate vs. Coverage Scores for the Sophomore Wide Receivers
    • Reception Perception: Why we Must Consider the Entire Range of Outcomes for Sammy Watkins
    • Reception Perception: Data Results from Year 1
    • Reception Perception: Scanning Through the Dolphins Receiving Corps for Fantasy Answers
    • Reception Perception: Allen Robinson is Quietly on the Precipice of a Massive Breakout
    • Reception Perception: Michael Crabtree is Exactly What the Raiders’ Passing Game Needs
    • Reception Perception: Justin Hunter and Wisely Shopping the Clearance Bins
    • Reception Perception: How Kevin White Began His Ascension to the Top
    • Reception Perception: Sammie Coates Falls Along a Dangerous Archetype
    • Reception Perception: A Video Rundown of the Data
    • Reception Perception: New Browns Receiver Dwayne Bowe Bring Value to a Depleted Pass Game
    • Reception Perception: Expectations and an Odd Coupling Doomed Mike Wallace in Miami
    • Reception Perception: Andre Johnson Still has Plenty Left to Offer the Colts
    • Reception Perception: Randall Cobb Made the Right Call Sticking With the Packers
    • Reception Perception: Where Do We Go From Here, Percy Harvin?
    • Reception Perception: Devin Smith and The Value of a Trump Card (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: The Siren Song of Dorial Green-Beckham (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Impending Free Agent Michael Crabtree
    • Reception Perception: Amari Cooper Under the Microscope (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Sammy Watkins and Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Matt Harmon's in-season film review blog
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    • Reception Perception: Cordarrelle Patterson and a Developing Story
    • Reception Perception: Jordy Nelson and Mastering the Little Things
  • Ramblings
    • Rebuilding a broken house: losing weight, changing my lifestyle and never looking back
    • Fighting through negativity bias and a wide receiver's drops
    • Saying Goodbye to Dixie
    • The #FreeAustinTice Campaign
    • My Reaction to Adrian Peterson and The Cycle of Abuse
    • Steve Smith: A Lesson in the Dangers of Emotional Football
    • The Arizona Cardinals Will Make the Playoffs
    • The Redskins Better Not Blow This Thing Up
    • The Commodification of NFL Players
    • Digging Deeper: Why Josh Freeman Failed with the Buccaneers
    • The Fall of Aaron Hernandez and the Patriot Way
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    • Stubbornness the Silent Coaching Killer
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  • Draft Class Jersey Number Grades
  • The Eye in the Sky
    • The Eye in the Sky: The St. Louis Rams Should Commit to Sam Bradford for 2014
    • The Eye in the Sky: Why the Cardinals Struggle Against Tight Ends
    • The Eye in the Sky: Uncovering a Diamond in the Rough, Mike Brown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Uncovering a Diamond in the Rough, Brandon Bostick
    • The Eye in the Sky: E.J. Manuel's Improvement All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Why Defending the Colts Offense is too Easy All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Picking Apart the Jets Defense All-22 Breakdown
    • Eye in the Sky: Texans vs. Chiefs (Week Seven) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Redskins vs. Cowboys (Week Six) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Panthers vs. Cardinals (Week Five) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Colts vs. Seahawks (Week Five)
  • 2014 Free Agent Profiles
    • Josh McCown Free Agent Profile
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  • BYOB Forums (Bring Your Own Banter)
  • 2014 NFL Free Agency Position Breakdowns
    • 2014 Quarterback Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Running Back Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Fullback Free Agent Breakdown
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    • 2014 Tight End Free Agent Rankings
    • 2014 Offensive Tackle Free Agent Breakdown
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    • 2014 Offensive Center Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Interior Defensive Lineman Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Edge Player Free Agent Breakdown
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    • 2014 Specialist Free Agent Breakdown
  • 2014 NFL Draft Content
    • 2014 NFL Draft Tiered Prospect Big Board (Top 75)
    • 2014 Tiered Colored Position Board
    • 2014 NFL Draft Tiered Prospect Big Board (Top 32)
    • 2014 NFL Draft Top 10 Quarterback Ranking
    • 2014 NFL Draft Running Back Top 10 Ranking
    • 2014 NFL Mock Draft--Post Free Agency
    • 2014 NFL Mock Draft--Pre Free Agency
    • 2014 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Top 10 Ranking
  • Sunday Mornin' Comin' Down
    • April 27th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • April 13th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • April 6th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • March 30th Sunday Morning Coming Down
  • 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Seventeen 2013 Power Rankings
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The 2016 Reception Perception Project

By: Matt Harmon
February 1st, 2016
Picture
Use Reception Perception as a tool to identify breakout candidates like it did for Allen Robinson (Image: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports)
Reception Perception is back in full force. Now that NFL offseason is officially in swing, I can take the needed time to go through and chart out full-season scopes for a wide range of receivers. From NFL Draft prospects, ascending young professionals to long established veterans, I’ll be releasing data for them all. 
​
Last offseason was a major progress point for Reception Perception. The series made the rounds on several podcasts, was featured on several big name venues, and grew in popularity seemingly by the day on Twitter. It was an amazing ride, and one that eventually landed me my position with NFL Media. I truly cannot thank my audience and all those that support the series enough. The only regret was that I had to cancel what would have been the first annual Reception Perception publication after taking the job with NFL.com. Moving from Virginia to Los Angeles and all that came with that happening right at the time to publication was set to release proved too much. All things happen for a reason. 

However, the good news is that with the nature of my employment with the NFL, I can now take even more time this offseason to put together more data and samples of players. We're going to dive deeper into the receiver position with this methodology than any other site has before.

If you have questions about the utility of the methodology, put Reception Perception to the test. The series' data correctly revealed that Odell Beckham was ready to explode mere days before "the catch" in 2014, that Allen Robinson would enjoy a massive breakout in the 2015 season and that Michael Crabtree would rebound with a new team when most of the football world left him for dead. The series' track record is not perfect, naturally, but to hold myself and the process accountable, I reviewed all of Reception Perception's flags planted for 2015, and found the results mostly favorable. For the misses, I'll keep working to do my best in refining the process to avoid them, even if perfection in not attainable in this line of work. 

Of course, Reception Perception is not the end all be all (no one evaluation tool is) but it is an important part of the equation that I trust, and the track record says you should consider doing so too. 


So, thank you all for your interest in this next chapter of Reception Perception. I encourage you all to continue to come back to Backyard Banter from here on out. This page will be the hub for Reception Perception content throughout the offseason. Throughout my charting, I’m sure a few performances and trends will catch my eye. When those happen, I’ll put a post up here relaying what I’m seeing, and provide links to all my articles with The Washington Post. 

For now, especially if you are new to the methodology, you can familiarize yourself with exactly what information Reception Perception provides:

Route Percentage – how often a receiver runs each pattern on the route tree. 
Success Rate vs. Coverage (SRVC) scores – how often a receiver got open against the defenders covering him. A success is charted when a receiver "gets open" against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target for the quarterback, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him. There are five formats for SRVC scores:
                 - SRVC against man
                 - SRVC against zone
                 - SRVC against press
                 - SRVC on each type of route run
                 - SRVC against double coverage
Alignment Data – charting where a receiver lined up on each snap (slot, outside right, outside left or in the backfield), and whether they were on the line of scrimmage or not.
PPR Fantasy Points on each route (PTS) – this helps shed light on just how a receiver amassed their production. 
Target Data – fairly self-explanatory, but not just targets, receptions and catch rate. Reception Perception tracks on how many times a receiver was targeted per route run, and how many routes they caught a pass on. This shows true involvement in the offense. 
Contested catch conversion rate - how often a receiver successfully catches a pass where he is in traffic and has to leave his feet. 
In space metrics - how often when a receiver gets an opportunity to run in the open field does he get dropped on first contact, break one tackle, or break multiple tackles.

A visual learner, you say? Well, you can see the series' data points explained in a video format, for your convenience. If you have questions about Reception Perception, please contact me on Twitter (@MattHarmon_BYB), or through my email (mharmon2570@gmail.com). Any comments, feedback or critiques are appreciated.

If you are looking for examples of the data you get from Reception Perception, here's Antonio Brown's numbers from his entire 2014 sample.

Here's his Route Percentage Chart:
Picture
You can see here which routes Brown runs most frequently (post, nines, slants) and ones he does not run as often (outs, digs, screens). 
​


Now, take in Brown's Route Success Rate Chart:
Picture
This chart shows you how often Brown beat the defense's coverage on each given route. Remember, its helpful to use this chart is conjunction with the Route Percentage Chart to put everything into context. Knowing that Brown ran a slant on 18.5% of the routes charted, it makes his SRVC score of 87.7% all the more impressive, and shows his PTS of 24.4 is steady production. You can also learn that while Brown did not run corners and outs all that often, he made most of big plays on those routes. They were not some of his most used routes on the percentage chart, but his SRVC and PTS marks were very high on corners and outs.
​


Now, here's the full display of Brown's 2014 Reception Perception data:
Or, if it is easier for you to view, you can download the spreadsheet, and review it at your convenience:
antonio_brown_2014_sample_rp_data_sheet1.pdf
File Size: 26 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File

You get everything from this spread sheet. Reception Perception gives you hard numbers on how good Brown is at contested catches (81.8% conversion rate), how often he beats coverage (man - 79.7% and zones - 93.6%) and how often he was targeted per route (31.8% of routes). That is just the beginning, as you can see there are many more numbers to dig in to.
​

So, there you have it; a sample of the wide array of data you get by following Reception Perception. Make sure to use the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter so you follow along with the series, and be ready to get your hands on the full publication this summer.

Blog Posts Previewing the 2016 Reception Perception Project:

Reception Perception media appearances
Nelson Agholor can bounce back in Doug Pederson's offense
Improved technician Donte Moncrief is set to explode
Only one concern can hold Sammy Watkins back
Bruce Ellington has a chance to flash with the 49ers
Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther
Willie Snead built an impressive resume we must not ignore
Welcome the ascending Tyler Lockett to rarified status
Kamar Aiken is the answer to the Ravens receiver riddle
Jackson and Doctson make the Washington WRs a strength
Browns make a refreshing first pick in Corey Coleman
The fruitless search for fatal flaws with Laquon Treadwell
Why there will never be an overall grade
The changing variables for Torrey Smith point to a rebound
Rashard Higgins - Never tell me the odds
Keyarris Garrett is a unicorn in this draft class
Malcolm Mitchell is a top-10 WR prospect
2016 NFL Draft prospect results
Golden Tate replacing Calvin Johnson
Jeff Janis, Trump Cards and Sorting Through the Noise
Top-4 NFL Draft WR primer
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