Reception Perception: Improved technician Donte Moncrief is set to explode in 2016
By: Matt Harmon
July 11th, 2016
July 11th, 2016
Donte Moncrief is the rare supreme athlete who also integrates detailed technique into his game (Image: Weston Kenney - Associated Press)
When it comes to the wide receiver position, a player’s ability as a route-runner will always be critical. Creating separation matters, and the integrated execution of timing, technique and footwork it takes to do so are essentials. We all want players who have immense size and all the athletic ability in the world. But if a receiver doesn’t at least crack a baseline level of performance as a route-runner, he’ll start shaving away at his ceiling.
Donte Moncrief certainly had every bit of those desired physical attributes when he came into the NFL. The Ole Miss star ripped off a 4.40 in the 40-yard dash at 6’2 and 221, leapt out of the gym with a 39.5” vertical and showed off elite explosion with a 132” in the broad jump. He looked the part in every sense of the word.
As impressive as he was to take in as a physical specimen, his film coming out of college was not as kind. Moncrief had flashes of that integrated technique, but it came and went in waves. His final year was marred by inconsistencies and an inability to string it all together on a route-to-route basis.
Moncrief’s raw technique and some struggles at the catch point were enough to drop the clearly talented receiver to the third-round. He landed with the Indianapolis Colts, who already had T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and sleeper from fantasy seasons past Da’Rick Rogers on the roster.
Given his lack of pro-ready technique and the crowded depth chart ahead of him, the smart money was on Moncrief taking a few years to put out effective NFL film. You would have lost that bet.
Moncrief only hauled in 33 catches as a rookie but had two massive games against Pittsburgh and Washington filling in for injured players. Even when he did not receive targets, Reception Perception revealed he was performing right in line with his peers in that fabled 2014 draft class.
Donte Moncrief certainly had every bit of those desired physical attributes when he came into the NFL. The Ole Miss star ripped off a 4.40 in the 40-yard dash at 6’2 and 221, leapt out of the gym with a 39.5” vertical and showed off elite explosion with a 132” in the broad jump. He looked the part in every sense of the word.
As impressive as he was to take in as a physical specimen, his film coming out of college was not as kind. Moncrief had flashes of that integrated technique, but it came and went in waves. His final year was marred by inconsistencies and an inability to string it all together on a route-to-route basis.
Moncrief’s raw technique and some struggles at the catch point were enough to drop the clearly talented receiver to the third-round. He landed with the Indianapolis Colts, who already had T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and sleeper from fantasy seasons past Da’Rick Rogers on the roster.
Given his lack of pro-ready technique and the crowded depth chart ahead of him, the smart money was on Moncrief taking a few years to put out effective NFL film. You would have lost that bet.
Moncrief only hauled in 33 catches as a rookie but had two massive games against Pittsburgh and Washington filling in for injured players. Even when he did not receive targets, Reception Perception revealed he was performing right in line with his peers in that fabled 2014 draft class.
Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.
Moncrief’s Success Rate Versus Coverage scores were surprising considering his reputation as a raw route-runner. He scored above the league average against man coverage, and posted a 79.3 SRVC when facing zones, second only to Odell Beckham among rookies that year.
It was just in limited flashes, but Donte Moncrief showed the requisite signs you needed to believe he would be a regular NFL contributor. That was a marked improvement from his sometimes troubling college film. That first big step forward was great to see, but it was just the beginning.
Opportunity was still a question heading into Moncrief’s sophomore season. The Colts bid farewell to Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, but seemingly upgraded over those two by adding Andre Johnson in free agency and taking Phillip Dorsett in the first round. No one could honestly project with any certainty prior to the season whether Moncrief would get many chances to show off more of his ability.
However, those concerns washed away within the first two weeks of the regular season. Johnson looked finished right away and Dorsett not quite ready for prime-time. Moncrief on the other hand, completely balled out with two strong games, including a dismantling of Darrelle Revis and the Jets secondary in Week 2. There was a comeback route in particular where the second-year receiver completely worked over the All-Pro cornerback. Of course, Reception Perception is designed to help us avoid overrating those types of flashes if indeed they were just that.
However, Moncrief’s Reception Perception results from those first two games showed that route was the norm, not an outlier. It appeared clear from that game that Moncrief was on his way to a special season as a big part of the Colts’ passing game. It almost came to fruition.
Even with Andrew Luck and the entire offense playing below previous standards, Moncrief made his presence felt early. In the first seven weeks of the regular season, he produced at a rate that had him on pace to finish with 77 catches, 870 yards and 11 touchdowns by year’s end. He was a monster in the red zone in those seven games, catching four scores inside the 20-yard line, and turning three of four targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns.
Alas, it all came undone. Moncrief ran into the NFL’s two best defenses when the Colts faced the Panthers and Broncos in Weeks 8 and 9. During that win over Denver, an already struggling Andrew Luck went down with an injury. He would never return before the curtain fell on the 2015 NFL season.
The Colts offense spiraled downward after that as Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman took turns at quarterback. Moncrief’s once-torrid pace would slow to a halt, and he finished his second season with just 733 yards and six touchdowns. What once looked like a promising sophomore campaign got lost in the turmoil-laden mess his team became.
Reception Perception is here to remind you what the year-end stats don’t reflect and the public at large forgot about. Donte Moncrief already broke out and established himself last season as one of the fastest rising young wideouts in the NFL.
Over the last three years, I’ve dedicated an egregious amount of time to studying wide receivers through the Reception Perception methodology. In that time, no player made more strides year-to-year as a route runner than Donte Moncrief. We discussed how he improved upon the struggles in college to post strong SRVC scores as a rookie. However, Reception Perception helps quantify the massive leap he took in his second season to go from a splashy contributor to all-around craftsmen.
It was just in limited flashes, but Donte Moncrief showed the requisite signs you needed to believe he would be a regular NFL contributor. That was a marked improvement from his sometimes troubling college film. That first big step forward was great to see, but it was just the beginning.
Opportunity was still a question heading into Moncrief’s sophomore season. The Colts bid farewell to Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, but seemingly upgraded over those two by adding Andre Johnson in free agency and taking Phillip Dorsett in the first round. No one could honestly project with any certainty prior to the season whether Moncrief would get many chances to show off more of his ability.
However, those concerns washed away within the first two weeks of the regular season. Johnson looked finished right away and Dorsett not quite ready for prime-time. Moncrief on the other hand, completely balled out with two strong games, including a dismantling of Darrelle Revis and the Jets secondary in Week 2. There was a comeback route in particular where the second-year receiver completely worked over the All-Pro cornerback. Of course, Reception Perception is designed to help us avoid overrating those types of flashes if indeed they were just that.
However, Moncrief’s Reception Perception results from those first two games showed that route was the norm, not an outlier. It appeared clear from that game that Moncrief was on his way to a special season as a big part of the Colts’ passing game. It almost came to fruition.
Even with Andrew Luck and the entire offense playing below previous standards, Moncrief made his presence felt early. In the first seven weeks of the regular season, he produced at a rate that had him on pace to finish with 77 catches, 870 yards and 11 touchdowns by year’s end. He was a monster in the red zone in those seven games, catching four scores inside the 20-yard line, and turning three of four targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns.
Alas, it all came undone. Moncrief ran into the NFL’s two best defenses when the Colts faced the Panthers and Broncos in Weeks 8 and 9. During that win over Denver, an already struggling Andrew Luck went down with an injury. He would never return before the curtain fell on the 2015 NFL season.
The Colts offense spiraled downward after that as Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman took turns at quarterback. Moncrief’s once-torrid pace would slow to a halt, and he finished his second season with just 733 yards and six touchdowns. What once looked like a promising sophomore campaign got lost in the turmoil-laden mess his team became.
Reception Perception is here to remind you what the year-end stats don’t reflect and the public at large forgot about. Donte Moncrief already broke out and established himself last season as one of the fastest rising young wideouts in the NFL.
Over the last three years, I’ve dedicated an egregious amount of time to studying wide receivers through the Reception Perception methodology. In that time, no player made more strides year-to-year as a route runner than Donte Moncrief. We discussed how he improved upon the struggles in college to post strong SRVC scores as a rookie. However, Reception Perception helps quantify the massive leap he took in his second season to go from a splashy contributor to all-around craftsmen.
As a rookie, the Colts asked Moncrief to be a big-play threat for Andrew Luck, who led starting quarterbacks in average depth of aimed throw with 9.2, per Pro Football Focus. Moncrief ran a nine route on 35.6 percent of the 160 routes in his eight-game sample. That remains the highest rate of nine routes run among NFL receivers charted over the last two seasons.
The only other routes he ran at an above average rate as a rookie were the dig and comeback. While improving his craft, Moncrief was still merely a situational player as a rookie, and his route assignments reflect that. However, he still showed signs of there being more to his game.
The only other routes he ran at an above average rate as a rookie were the dig and comeback. While improving his craft, Moncrief was still merely a situational player as a rookie, and his route assignments reflect that. However, he still showed signs of there being more to his game.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Even if it came in limited showings, Moncrief created separation at every level of the field. His 63.2 percent SRVC on nine routes reminded us of that outstanding size/speed combination he possessed.
Moncrief also posted an 80 percent or better SRVC score on all of the in-breaking routes. His curl and post scores were particularly impressive. Again, this demonstrates the noticeable progress he made as a route-runner during his first year as a professional.
With that being said, the out-breaking patterns on the tree show there was still room for improvement. All of his SRVC scores there were mediocre to poor, and he did not record a single PTS.
After a strong showing in his rookie campaign, the team demanded more from Moncrief in 2015. With their new additions proving subpar, the Colts asked their second-year wideout to be a complete player.
Moncrief also posted an 80 percent or better SRVC score on all of the in-breaking routes. His curl and post scores were particularly impressive. Again, this demonstrates the noticeable progress he made as a route-runner during his first year as a professional.
With that being said, the out-breaking patterns on the tree show there was still room for improvement. All of his SRVC scores there were mediocre to poor, and he did not record a single PTS.
After a strong showing in his rookie campaign, the team demanded more from Moncrief in 2015. With their new additions proving subpar, the Colts asked their second-year wideout to be a complete player.
Moncrief’s route percentage chart from last season is far more balanced, with his nine routes coming down from 35.6 percent to 18.6. The extra routes were evenly distributed throughout, with only the comeback and dig remaining static.
Now running the full route tree, Moncrief’s assignments grew in difficulty. His performance did not take a dip with more on his plate. Quite the opposite, as Moncrief took yet another step forward as a technician to propel himself even farther down the path to stardom.
Now running the full route tree, Moncrief’s assignments grew in difficulty. His performance did not take a dip with more on his plate. Quite the opposite, as Moncrief took yet another step forward as a technician to propel himself even farther down the path to stardom.
Moncrief’s SRVC on curls, digs and slants remained strong. He showed yet again that he can be a threat going over the middle of the field and breaking back to the quarterback. The curl route demonstrates Moncrief’s development at selling the vertical concept before using quickness to break back to the quarterback.
In the same vein, we also see that reflected in a tremendous leap forward in Moncrief’s SRVC on comeback routes. After a poor score as a rookie, Moncrief came in with a strong 76.2 percent mark in 2015. The comeback is one of the hardest routes to run, and truly demonstrates the integration of deception and footwork to create separation.
The out and dig route are also difficult patterns to execute and get open on. Not to undersell performance on other routes, but the sharp, 90-degree angle breaks on the out and dig require great proficiency. Moncrief’s 87.5 and 81.3 SRVC scores show he has that in spades.
The only area where Moncrief took a step backward was in the vertical game. After excellent marks on the nine and post routes as a rookie, his 43.5 and 62.9 SRVC scores in 2015 came in below the league average. This was quite curious given his numbers during his rookie season and especially with his athletic profile. With that in mind, we can be open to this decline being a bit of an outlier, and with Andrew Luck back at quarterback, we can at least bet his 4.1 PTS on nine routes will improve.
Even when Moncrief doesn’t work free on vertical routes, as his size would entail he has the finishing touch to with the ball in traffic. He posted above average contested catch conversion rates in his two first seasons, with 77.8 as a rookie and 63.6 as a sophomore.
In the same vein, we also see that reflected in a tremendous leap forward in Moncrief’s SRVC on comeback routes. After a poor score as a rookie, Moncrief came in with a strong 76.2 percent mark in 2015. The comeback is one of the hardest routes to run, and truly demonstrates the integration of deception and footwork to create separation.
The out and dig route are also difficult patterns to execute and get open on. Not to undersell performance on other routes, but the sharp, 90-degree angle breaks on the out and dig require great proficiency. Moncrief’s 87.5 and 81.3 SRVC scores show he has that in spades.
The only area where Moncrief took a step backward was in the vertical game. After excellent marks on the nine and post routes as a rookie, his 43.5 and 62.9 SRVC scores in 2015 came in below the league average. This was quite curious given his numbers during his rookie season and especially with his athletic profile. With that in mind, we can be open to this decline being a bit of an outlier, and with Andrew Luck back at quarterback, we can at least bet his 4.1 PTS on nine routes will improve.
Even when Moncrief doesn’t work free on vertical routes, as his size would entail he has the finishing touch to with the ball in traffic. He posted above average contested catch conversion rates in his two first seasons, with 77.8 as a rookie and 63.6 as a sophomore.
With the decline in his vertical numbers but improvement in the more nuanced portions of the route tree, Moncrief’s overall SRVC numbers against man and zones stayed relatively static from his rookie to second-season. However, his improvement at beating press coverage was noticeable and important.
T.Y. Hilton is a fine player, but lacks the frame of a No. 1 receiver and isn't an elite route-runner or contested catch player to negate that. The Colts have yearned for size and physicality in Luck’s receiving corps, as shown by the additions of Andre Johnson and Hakeem Nicks. Yet, the answer to that query was there all along in their former third-round draft pick. Moncrief profiles as that true No. 1 and has the release moves against press coverage to back that up.
The injury to Andrew Luck stalled the movement in 2015, but the Donte Moncrief emergence is right back on schedule. He put the evidence out on game film last year by taking yet another step forward as a technician. His timing improved, his release moves became that much more defined and his route execution was as silky smooth as ever.
Not all athletic dominators take the extra time needed to learn the craft to great detail because they can get by with just a baseline level of technique. Yet, when one does, that receiver can enter a deadly stratosphere of capabilities. Let’s give Donte Moncrief the proper credit for consistent improvement to his craft every step of the way.
With Andrew Luck set to return under center for the Colts in 2016 both healthy and with a new contract, the stars are aligning for Donte Moncrief. With his development as an individual player in all facets of the game, it’s hard to set limits on what he’s capable of in this offense. The Colts should throw the ball plenty with their current team construction and the results will be bountiful if Luck is near 2014 form.
The stats will soon reflect what Moncrief keeps putting out on tape. He’s the most assured breakout candidate at the wide receiver position in 2016.
T.Y. Hilton is a fine player, but lacks the frame of a No. 1 receiver and isn't an elite route-runner or contested catch player to negate that. The Colts have yearned for size and physicality in Luck’s receiving corps, as shown by the additions of Andre Johnson and Hakeem Nicks. Yet, the answer to that query was there all along in their former third-round draft pick. Moncrief profiles as that true No. 1 and has the release moves against press coverage to back that up.
The injury to Andrew Luck stalled the movement in 2015, but the Donte Moncrief emergence is right back on schedule. He put the evidence out on game film last year by taking yet another step forward as a technician. His timing improved, his release moves became that much more defined and his route execution was as silky smooth as ever.
Not all athletic dominators take the extra time needed to learn the craft to great detail because they can get by with just a baseline level of technique. Yet, when one does, that receiver can enter a deadly stratosphere of capabilities. Let’s give Donte Moncrief the proper credit for consistent improvement to his craft every step of the way.
With Andrew Luck set to return under center for the Colts in 2016 both healthy and with a new contract, the stars are aligning for Donte Moncrief. With his development as an individual player in all facets of the game, it’s hard to set limits on what he’s capable of in this offense. The Colts should throw the ball plenty with their current team construction and the results will be bountiful if Luck is near 2014 form.
The stats will soon reflect what Moncrief keeps putting out on tape. He’s the most assured breakout candidate at the wide receiver position in 2016.
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