Reception Perception: Rashard Higgins - Never tell me the odds
By: Matt Harmon
April 6th, 2016
April 6th, 2016
Rashard Higgins must prove he can overcome a rough pre-draft process to make it in the NFL (Image: Rick Scuteri, Associated Press)
“Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1.”
“Never tell me the odds.”
The words of Han Solo as he sent his ship, the Millennium Falcon careening into one of the most dangerous portions of space to escape oncoming Imperials still ring true to this day for the variance-inclined, the dreamer and the hopeless romantic.
As someone who you could categorize as all three, I often find myself uttering Solo’s line at the crucial breakpoints in decision-making. When hope seems slim, an outcome I desire seemingly so far out of reach, I find comfort in the words of the famous Star Wars hero.
“Never tell me the odds.”
Even when the proposition seems more daring to assert, the favor stacked to the opposition, I trust my gut and intuition gleaned over time. I believe in outliers. I’m all about the long-shots. I’m even more confident in standing behind those slim odds when I arrived at my conclusion through a detailed, well-crafted decision-making process.
Here in the waning weeks before the 2016 NFL Draft, I’m faced with a similar proposition. Accept the long-shot odds stacked against my stance, or stand firm in what my process tells me.
Among the college prospects charted for Reception Perception, Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins finished with the second best Success Rate Vs. Coverage score again man defense, the third-best against press, and fifth against zone. All the makings of a future NFL prospect, at worst, in the results of my methodology. At best, these scores show us that Higgins is a clear sleeper who can quietly emerge from the mid-rounds to become a top-level receiver in the game.
“Never tell me the odds.”
The words of Han Solo as he sent his ship, the Millennium Falcon careening into one of the most dangerous portions of space to escape oncoming Imperials still ring true to this day for the variance-inclined, the dreamer and the hopeless romantic.
As someone who you could categorize as all three, I often find myself uttering Solo’s line at the crucial breakpoints in decision-making. When hope seems slim, an outcome I desire seemingly so far out of reach, I find comfort in the words of the famous Star Wars hero.
“Never tell me the odds.”
Even when the proposition seems more daring to assert, the favor stacked to the opposition, I trust my gut and intuition gleaned over time. I believe in outliers. I’m all about the long-shots. I’m even more confident in standing behind those slim odds when I arrived at my conclusion through a detailed, well-crafted decision-making process.
Here in the waning weeks before the 2016 NFL Draft, I’m faced with a similar proposition. Accept the long-shot odds stacked against my stance, or stand firm in what my process tells me.
Among the college prospects charted for Reception Perception, Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins finished with the second best Success Rate Vs. Coverage score again man defense, the third-best against press, and fifth against zone. All the makings of a future NFL prospect, at worst, in the results of my methodology. At best, these scores show us that Higgins is a clear sleeper who can quietly emerge from the mid-rounds to become a top-level receiver in the game.
With optimism abounding in the face of these results, it seemed the answer was easy. Go all-in on Rashard Higgins. Then, the NFL Scouting Combing happened.
As every result poured in, the situation only grew more dire for Higgins. From a painful 4.64 40-yard dash, to the ghastly 32” vertical and the 116” broad jump, by the end of the day, it seemed he just whiffed every test.
Zach Whitman of 3sigmaathlete.com does an excellent job working through the combine results to give us SPARQ scores, a process employed by several NFL teams for measuring athleticism. After his dismal day, Higgins’ measured athleticism scores below the fourth percentile among NFL wide receivers. That was an unreal gut-punch to read. To quote Whitman’s interpretation of those results in an appearance on RotoViz Radio “you’re talking about not just a leap of faith, but a once in every several years leap of faith” in terms of Higgins crafting a legitimate consequential role at the pro-level with that athletic profile. Quite simply, Whitman said, “those guys usually get cut.”
I remember listening to that episode while walking my dog one night, stopping in my tracks at his words, and rearing my head back to let out an audible groan.
It’s far from the end of the world, but feeling like the plane ride of a player you believe in is already crashed before it gets off the runway is frustrating. Knowing Rashard Higgins has to beat every odd in the book from an NFL athlete standpoint to be a success in the league is disheartening. Despite piling up 2,811 yards and 25 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and leading college football in both categories in 2014, he’s a long shot. Then again…
“Never tell me the odds.”
When examining Rashard Higgins’ Reception Perception results, everything points to a future NFL player; a contributor at the worst. Yet, the data is so strong we can't put an artificial ceiling on his range of outcomes.
Higgins split his time between flanker and X-receiver at Colorado State, taking 90.2 percent of his snaps outside and 50.9 percent behind the line of scrimmage in his sampled games. He was the engine of an offense in transition in 2015. Former quarterback star Garrett Grayson was a third-round pick of the Saints in last year’s draft, and head coach Jim McElwain departed for the open University of Florida position.
The CSU quarterbacks targeted Higgins on 35.3 percent of his 139 routes in his Reception Perception sample. He was hyper-efficient in terms of hauling in the targets, recording a catch on 23.7 percent of his routes, finishing third in the class. Higgins also carries one of the most secure pair of hands among the 2016 crop of receivers. His 2.0 drop rate was the second-lowest in the class, trailing only Braxton Miller, who was targeted fewer than the rest of the charted players.
In terms of his work as a route runner, Higgins showed himself as a versatile and detailed wide receiver.
As every result poured in, the situation only grew more dire for Higgins. From a painful 4.64 40-yard dash, to the ghastly 32” vertical and the 116” broad jump, by the end of the day, it seemed he just whiffed every test.
Zach Whitman of 3sigmaathlete.com does an excellent job working through the combine results to give us SPARQ scores, a process employed by several NFL teams for measuring athleticism. After his dismal day, Higgins’ measured athleticism scores below the fourth percentile among NFL wide receivers. That was an unreal gut-punch to read. To quote Whitman’s interpretation of those results in an appearance on RotoViz Radio “you’re talking about not just a leap of faith, but a once in every several years leap of faith” in terms of Higgins crafting a legitimate consequential role at the pro-level with that athletic profile. Quite simply, Whitman said, “those guys usually get cut.”
I remember listening to that episode while walking my dog one night, stopping in my tracks at his words, and rearing my head back to let out an audible groan.
It’s far from the end of the world, but feeling like the plane ride of a player you believe in is already crashed before it gets off the runway is frustrating. Knowing Rashard Higgins has to beat every odd in the book from an NFL athlete standpoint to be a success in the league is disheartening. Despite piling up 2,811 yards and 25 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and leading college football in both categories in 2014, he’s a long shot. Then again…
“Never tell me the odds.”
When examining Rashard Higgins’ Reception Perception results, everything points to a future NFL player; a contributor at the worst. Yet, the data is so strong we can't put an artificial ceiling on his range of outcomes.
Higgins split his time between flanker and X-receiver at Colorado State, taking 90.2 percent of his snaps outside and 50.9 percent behind the line of scrimmage in his sampled games. He was the engine of an offense in transition in 2015. Former quarterback star Garrett Grayson was a third-round pick of the Saints in last year’s draft, and head coach Jim McElwain departed for the open University of Florida position.
The CSU quarterbacks targeted Higgins on 35.3 percent of his 139 routes in his Reception Perception sample. He was hyper-efficient in terms of hauling in the targets, recording a catch on 23.7 percent of his routes, finishing third in the class. Higgins also carries one of the most secure pair of hands among the 2016 crop of receivers. His 2.0 drop rate was the second-lowest in the class, trailing only Braxton Miller, who was targeted fewer than the rest of the charted players.
In terms of his work as a route runner, Higgins showed himself as a versatile and detailed wide receiver.
Higgins comes with one of the most balanced route percentage charts in the 2016 class. Unlike other players, even some listed far ahead of him in analysts’ rankings, Higgins’ route chart isn’t skewed heavily toward simplistic routes. He ran a healthy amount of slants (15.1 percent) and nines (20.9 percent), popular patterns among his peers, but neither was above the class average.
Higgins had an above average usage rate on curls, posts, outs, flats and other routes. His percentage of screens and dig routes checked in right at the class average. The Colorado State product stands out in this group, and prior wide receiver groups as a player who already has some experience varying up his assignments.
Not only did Higgins run a wide variety of routes in college, he showed the ability to create separation at every level of the field.
Higgins had an above average usage rate on curls, posts, outs, flats and other routes. His percentage of screens and dig routes checked in right at the class average. The Colorado State product stands out in this group, and prior wide receiver groups as a player who already has some experience varying up his assignments.
Not only did Higgins run a wide variety of routes in college, he showed the ability to create separation at every level of the field.
Rashard Higgins’ Success Rate Vs. Coverage score of 90.5 percent on slants trailed only elite athlete Corey Coleman for the second-highest mark in the class. He proved adapt at working the underneath portions of the field, displaying good suddenness to quickly dart inward on slant patterns. Coupled with a strong 80.8 percent SRVC on curl routes, Higgins would fit well in a timing-based NFL offense partnered with an anticipatory passer.
However, Higgins did not just win in the short areas of the field. He finished with the second highest SRVC on nine routes, and was certainly a top vertical threat in the Mountain West conference. While his athletic profile likely paints a picture of a receiver who won’t play that role in the NFL, and he likely won’t, Higgins did display good deception to sell underneath routes before darting vertical in college. Strong route concept understanding is the most underrated part of being a deep threat.
Further underscoring his proficiency as a technician, Higgins scored well on some of the more difficult routes. The dig and the out are two patterns even some of the most accomplished wideouts in the NFL struggle to master, and are not tasked to run often. Not only were they two routes Higgins ran at an at least above average rate, he scored above the class average in SRVC for both digs (75 percent) and outs (77.8 percent).
Higgins does everything you ask to score out as a Reception Perception route-running all-star. He’s disciplined, cutting with great acceleration at the break points of routes, but always staying in control. There’s no loss of speed when he changes direction in-routes, but he knows when to stop and start to deceive a defender. He’ll engage in the hand fight, both in destroying press attempts and to work his way downfield. He has late hands and consistently separates from all forms of coverage. It’s all there for Rashard Higgins from a route technician perspective.
For additional optimism, Higgins scores out at a more than acceptable rate in Reception Perception’s periphery metrics.
His contested catch conversion rate of 62.5 percent was above the class average, but far off the Josh Doctson (85 percent) and Laquon Treadwell (75 percent) golden standard. For his wiry frame, Higgins’ score is more than acceptable. He has no fear in tight coverage, or contested situations. He tracks the ball well, and gains timely late separation to leap at just the right time to get airborne. Of course, with his size, we can only consider this a bonus.
Higgins was also a dangerous payer with the ball in his hands at Colorado State. He was out “in space” on 12.7 percent of his 139 routes, and was adapt at making defenders miss.
However, Higgins did not just win in the short areas of the field. He finished with the second highest SRVC on nine routes, and was certainly a top vertical threat in the Mountain West conference. While his athletic profile likely paints a picture of a receiver who won’t play that role in the NFL, and he likely won’t, Higgins did display good deception to sell underneath routes before darting vertical in college. Strong route concept understanding is the most underrated part of being a deep threat.
Further underscoring his proficiency as a technician, Higgins scored well on some of the more difficult routes. The dig and the out are two patterns even some of the most accomplished wideouts in the NFL struggle to master, and are not tasked to run often. Not only were they two routes Higgins ran at an at least above average rate, he scored above the class average in SRVC for both digs (75 percent) and outs (77.8 percent).
Higgins does everything you ask to score out as a Reception Perception route-running all-star. He’s disciplined, cutting with great acceleration at the break points of routes, but always staying in control. There’s no loss of speed when he changes direction in-routes, but he knows when to stop and start to deceive a defender. He’ll engage in the hand fight, both in destroying press attempts and to work his way downfield. He has late hands and consistently separates from all forms of coverage. It’s all there for Rashard Higgins from a route technician perspective.
For additional optimism, Higgins scores out at a more than acceptable rate in Reception Perception’s periphery metrics.
His contested catch conversion rate of 62.5 percent was above the class average, but far off the Josh Doctson (85 percent) and Laquon Treadwell (75 percent) golden standard. For his wiry frame, Higgins’ score is more than acceptable. He has no fear in tight coverage, or contested situations. He tracks the ball well, and gains timely late separation to leap at just the right time to get airborne. Of course, with his size, we can only consider this a bonus.
Higgins was also a dangerous payer with the ball in his hands at Colorado State. He was out “in space” on 12.7 percent of his 139 routes, and was adapt at making defenders miss.
The exciting Higgins got dropped on first contact on 50 percent of his in space attempts. That clocked in below the class average of 52.8 percent. While his one broken tackle rate of 38.9 percent was just slightly below the class average, his multiple tackles broken rate of 11.1 percent was well above the class average. In fact, it was a top-five score in the class. When Higgins made plays in open space, he made them count. Higgins functioned well in close quarters, able to take on multiple in-coming defenders.
So, lets bring this back to the projection. With that comes the crushing reality of those long shot athletic odds, and how they directly conflict with my process.
Everything about Rashard Higgins’ Reception Perception profile points to a future NFL player. One who, at worst, will be a quality and longtime contributor to an offense. At his best, should Higgins continue to hone his craft, Reception Perception paints the optimistic hope for him to ascend far above his draft status to develop into a consistent starting performer. The athletic testing odds are stacked against either option being reality, and yet, here we are.
The 2016 NFL Draft marks the first year I got to test a wide sample of college prospects. I’m more than confident in Reception Perception’s utility as an NFL evaluation tool, and don’t have many questions at that level. While I wholeheartedly believe this methodology is just as useful in the draft process, there’s one issue more pronounced in charting the college players—level of competition.
Reception Perception doesn't adjust for strength of the opponent, and it probably never will. The goal of the methodology is to cut through outside factors, and isolate the player alone to best discern just who they are as an individual performer. That’s why there is no adjusting for competition, what passer they play with, what system they exist in and certainly why there will never be a cumulative overall Reception Perception grade. Not to mention, the only way to accurately get that competition adjustment right would be for me to apply this same methodology to, but at an inverse for, all the cornerbacks the receivers face. Not happening; I’d like to have some semblance of a life outside of this.
In my view, not adjusting for competition is less of an issue at the NFL level. Certainly some corners are better than others, but overall, all these players are professionals. The drop-off from the SEC secondaries to the Mountain West’s units, from a talent perspective, is massive. Many of the cornerbacks Rashard Higgins racked up these Reception Perception scores against won’t even sniff, will never dare to dream of stepping on an NFL field. You can’t rule out that he scores so well in my methodology due to the competition he faced, and that his combine performance revealed that was the only reason why.
One way or another, Rashard Higgins is an important player for Reception Perception.
If in the next three to five years, the Colorado State product has yet to make an impact, or is even out of the NFL altogether, he’ll serve as a strong warning. Reception Perception might have a flaw in evaluating college prospects of differing conference strengths. Higgins would serve as a clear reminder that my readers and I will need to internally adjust our enthusiasm for the numbers posted by players across different competition levels.
However, if Higgins fulfills some level of the great promise Reception Perception holds for him, he’s just as vital to the series. He would show us that we can feel comfortable trusting the results with unwavering vigor. That consistent route-to-route performance in creating separation and defeating coverage is a huge indicator for future success, regardless of who the player faced.
Without the gift of the foresight needed to know where this issue will side down the road, I’ll side with trusting my process on this one. Reception Perception proved itself, and I am fully behind it is an excellent predictor of future success. The methodology shows Rashard Higgins as a future consequential NFL player, and I have every inclination to believe it.
The odds are stacked against what Reception Perception foretold in Rashard Higgins’ results. However, what this player did on the field throughout his college career, and the consistency of his performance reflected in the metrics presented cannot be denied.
The Reception Perception methodology officially puts its stamp on a bright future for Rashard Higgins. Call me a hopeless romantic, assert that I’m a dreamer and you wouldn’t be wrong. Rashard Higgins will be an NFL success story.
“Never tell me the odds.”
So, lets bring this back to the projection. With that comes the crushing reality of those long shot athletic odds, and how they directly conflict with my process.
Everything about Rashard Higgins’ Reception Perception profile points to a future NFL player. One who, at worst, will be a quality and longtime contributor to an offense. At his best, should Higgins continue to hone his craft, Reception Perception paints the optimistic hope for him to ascend far above his draft status to develop into a consistent starting performer. The athletic testing odds are stacked against either option being reality, and yet, here we are.
The 2016 NFL Draft marks the first year I got to test a wide sample of college prospects. I’m more than confident in Reception Perception’s utility as an NFL evaluation tool, and don’t have many questions at that level. While I wholeheartedly believe this methodology is just as useful in the draft process, there’s one issue more pronounced in charting the college players—level of competition.
Reception Perception doesn't adjust for strength of the opponent, and it probably never will. The goal of the methodology is to cut through outside factors, and isolate the player alone to best discern just who they are as an individual performer. That’s why there is no adjusting for competition, what passer they play with, what system they exist in and certainly why there will never be a cumulative overall Reception Perception grade. Not to mention, the only way to accurately get that competition adjustment right would be for me to apply this same methodology to, but at an inverse for, all the cornerbacks the receivers face. Not happening; I’d like to have some semblance of a life outside of this.
In my view, not adjusting for competition is less of an issue at the NFL level. Certainly some corners are better than others, but overall, all these players are professionals. The drop-off from the SEC secondaries to the Mountain West’s units, from a talent perspective, is massive. Many of the cornerbacks Rashard Higgins racked up these Reception Perception scores against won’t even sniff, will never dare to dream of stepping on an NFL field. You can’t rule out that he scores so well in my methodology due to the competition he faced, and that his combine performance revealed that was the only reason why.
One way or another, Rashard Higgins is an important player for Reception Perception.
If in the next three to five years, the Colorado State product has yet to make an impact, or is even out of the NFL altogether, he’ll serve as a strong warning. Reception Perception might have a flaw in evaluating college prospects of differing conference strengths. Higgins would serve as a clear reminder that my readers and I will need to internally adjust our enthusiasm for the numbers posted by players across different competition levels.
However, if Higgins fulfills some level of the great promise Reception Perception holds for him, he’s just as vital to the series. He would show us that we can feel comfortable trusting the results with unwavering vigor. That consistent route-to-route performance in creating separation and defeating coverage is a huge indicator for future success, regardless of who the player faced.
Without the gift of the foresight needed to know where this issue will side down the road, I’ll side with trusting my process on this one. Reception Perception proved itself, and I am fully behind it is an excellent predictor of future success. The methodology shows Rashard Higgins as a future consequential NFL player, and I have every inclination to believe it.
The odds are stacked against what Reception Perception foretold in Rashard Higgins’ results. However, what this player did on the field throughout his college career, and the consistency of his performance reflected in the metrics presented cannot be denied.
The Reception Perception methodology officially puts its stamp on a bright future for Rashard Higgins. Call me a hopeless romantic, assert that I’m a dreamer and you wouldn’t be wrong. Rashard Higgins will be an NFL success story.
“Never tell me the odds.”
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