Reception Perception: 11 flags planted for the 2016 season
By: Matt Harmon
August 19th, 2016
August 19th, 2016
Stefon Diggs could breakout despite playing in Minnesota's low volume passing offense (Image: Brad Rempel, US Presswire)
The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. Use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series.
If you believe in something, you should not hide your feelings. Being intentional, direct and upfront with conclusions are necessary to developing successful real life interactions and situations. Likewise, if you have confidence in your professional process, there’s no need to duck from your conclusions; confidently let your findings fly for the world to see. I believe in my process for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, very strongly. As such, the conclusions I draw from the work are ideas we can all learn from, even if you disagree with them. So I decided to put together a “greatest hits” compilation of the findings from this offseason, and where they’ve led me to plant my flags for the upcoming fantasy season.
I have plenty of Reception Perception takes, and you can find them in my work here at Footballguys, Backyard Banter and NFL.com. However, the ones outlined in these two “planting flags” posts are the ones I stand by with unwavering conviction. The data collected indicates something so strongly that I have no choice but to follow down the path it leads. In parts one and two, the opinions provided are of the “take it to the bank” variety. Again, you may feel free to disagree, and please let me hear it if they turn out to be misses come season’s end. I’m open to being wrong, as always, and will gladly learn from any potential mistakes made in Reception Perceptions’ third year in existence. Nevertheless, let’s dive into which players I am firmly planting a flag for their 2016 outlook.
The Vikings receiving corps will be much improved
The Minnesota Vikings were dead last in the NFL in pass attempts last year with just 454. That was over 100 fewer than the league average of 571.8, a number that continues rising every season. Adrian Peterson at the center of the squad or not; Mike Zimmer wants to build his teams this way, even if he’s pushing his young quarterback to be more aggressive as he grows.
However, should they ever choose to do so, Minnesota has the horses in the receiving game to be a pass-first team.
Laquon Treadwell was a top wide receiver prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft. Reception Perception never bought into the narrative that Treadwell couldn’t separate. A lack of measured athletic testing in pre-draft workouts or even subpar speed has little to do with the art of separation. Treadwell has the combination of pristine technique, short-area quickness and physicality to consistently work free on the outside. That is exemplified in his 74.6 percent success rate versus man coverage, a top-five score among the 21 charted prospects.
Treadwell’s highest performing routes in success rate versus coverage were the slant, curl and post (a pattern the Vikings are installing more of just for him). All of those route fit well with what Teddy Bridgewater does as a middle of the field, timing-based passer. He also had the second-highest contested catch conversion rate in the class, a dominant trait none of Bridgewater’s receivers boasted to this point.
In due time Treadwell will be the lead-dog in this passing game and future No. 1 NFL receiver. However, for this year, he might play second fiddle to another supremely talented player.
If you believe in something, you should not hide your feelings. Being intentional, direct and upfront with conclusions are necessary to developing successful real life interactions and situations. Likewise, if you have confidence in your professional process, there’s no need to duck from your conclusions; confidently let your findings fly for the world to see. I believe in my process for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, very strongly. As such, the conclusions I draw from the work are ideas we can all learn from, even if you disagree with them. So I decided to put together a “greatest hits” compilation of the findings from this offseason, and where they’ve led me to plant my flags for the upcoming fantasy season.
I have plenty of Reception Perception takes, and you can find them in my work here at Footballguys, Backyard Banter and NFL.com. However, the ones outlined in these two “planting flags” posts are the ones I stand by with unwavering conviction. The data collected indicates something so strongly that I have no choice but to follow down the path it leads. In parts one and two, the opinions provided are of the “take it to the bank” variety. Again, you may feel free to disagree, and please let me hear it if they turn out to be misses come season’s end. I’m open to being wrong, as always, and will gladly learn from any potential mistakes made in Reception Perceptions’ third year in existence. Nevertheless, let’s dive into which players I am firmly planting a flag for their 2016 outlook.
The Vikings receiving corps will be much improved
The Minnesota Vikings were dead last in the NFL in pass attempts last year with just 454. That was over 100 fewer than the league average of 571.8, a number that continues rising every season. Adrian Peterson at the center of the squad or not; Mike Zimmer wants to build his teams this way, even if he’s pushing his young quarterback to be more aggressive as he grows.
However, should they ever choose to do so, Minnesota has the horses in the receiving game to be a pass-first team.
Laquon Treadwell was a top wide receiver prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft. Reception Perception never bought into the narrative that Treadwell couldn’t separate. A lack of measured athletic testing in pre-draft workouts or even subpar speed has little to do with the art of separation. Treadwell has the combination of pristine technique, short-area quickness and physicality to consistently work free on the outside. That is exemplified in his 74.6 percent success rate versus man coverage, a top-five score among the 21 charted prospects.
Treadwell’s highest performing routes in success rate versus coverage were the slant, curl and post (a pattern the Vikings are installing more of just for him). All of those route fit well with what Teddy Bridgewater does as a middle of the field, timing-based passer. He also had the second-highest contested catch conversion rate in the class, a dominant trait none of Bridgewater’s receivers boasted to this point.
In due time Treadwell will be the lead-dog in this passing game and future No. 1 NFL receiver. However, for this year, he might play second fiddle to another supremely talented player.
One of my biggest whiffs in recent years was my missed evaluation of Stefon Diggs coming out of college-just another piece of evidence of why I need Reception Perception as a guide not just my eyes (limited access to all-22 for that draft). In racking up 419 yards and two scores in his first four pro games, Diggs showed right away that he would be far better than my low expectations. Yet, his second-half slowdown, where he never topped 70 yards again, had many wondering if he was just a flash in the pan.
Diggs’ Reception Perception numbers revealed that he actually improved as a player as the season went along, when his data was just decent through his first two games. He ran a go-route on 22.1 percent of his routes through those first two games, but finished the year with just a 12.2 percent rate. Dialing back those deep patterns pumped up Diggs’ overall success rate versus coverage numbers. His 71.3 percent rate when facing man is the fifth-highest mark among rookies charted over the last two years, ahead of Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant, and trailing only Odell Beckham, Tyler Lockett, John Brown and Allen Robinson.
Stefon Diggs has the Reception Perception backing as a player who could explode in a major way if he ever gets the requisite targets. Whether that comes this year, or down the line, is another proposition. When Treadwell catches up, this offense will be hard to deal with.
Lastly, Charles Johnson might just be a thing again. He ran with the starters all through the offseason over Treadwell and scored a long touchdown in the first preseason game. His 2014 Reception Perception painted quite an optimistic picture about his future. He posted an above average success rate vs. man and press coverage and had one of the highest go-route scores in histroy (an elite 70 percent) That obviously did not come to fruition, but it looks like that ability is still somewhere inside him. If he can contribute as as the eventual No. 3, that’s just gravy. A Diggs, Treadwell and Johnson playing at his potential trio could be deadly.
Diggs’ Reception Perception numbers revealed that he actually improved as a player as the season went along, when his data was just decent through his first two games. He ran a go-route on 22.1 percent of his routes through those first two games, but finished the year with just a 12.2 percent rate. Dialing back those deep patterns pumped up Diggs’ overall success rate versus coverage numbers. His 71.3 percent rate when facing man is the fifth-highest mark among rookies charted over the last two years, ahead of Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant, and trailing only Odell Beckham, Tyler Lockett, John Brown and Allen Robinson.
Stefon Diggs has the Reception Perception backing as a player who could explode in a major way if he ever gets the requisite targets. Whether that comes this year, or down the line, is another proposition. When Treadwell catches up, this offense will be hard to deal with.
Lastly, Charles Johnson might just be a thing again. He ran with the starters all through the offseason over Treadwell and scored a long touchdown in the first preseason game. His 2014 Reception Perception painted quite an optimistic picture about his future. He posted an above average success rate vs. man and press coverage and had one of the highest go-route scores in histroy (an elite 70 percent) That obviously did not come to fruition, but it looks like that ability is still somewhere inside him. If he can contribute as as the eventual No. 3, that’s just gravy. A Diggs, Treadwell and Johnson playing at his potential trio could be deadly.
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