Reception Perception: Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther
By: Matt Harmon
June 30th, 2016
June 30th, 2016
A secret Reception Perception favorite, Albert Wilson has the ability to produce when called upon (Image: Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports)
You need to let it go. It’s a phrase most all of us hear more than a handful of times in our lives. Persistent clinging to the reality we perceive and desire so desperately to be real when all the objective raw data preaches the contrary can be our undoing.
In particular, I have an exceptionally hard time just letting it go. I’ve chased feelings long after it made sense to do so. Not seeing the way a situation was trending, I’ve stuck with the initial gut instinct that appeared at the onset. I’ll overthink a few words in an exchange for hours, play the same song on repeat for a week, and make a mediocre joke until it finally hits.
Given that history of clinging to my own version of reality despite the opposing evidence, I was setting myself for another iteration after penning a letter of support for Kansas City Chiefs receiver, Albert Wilson. It’s a train I didn’t jump on alone. Fellow fantasy writers Rich Hribar of Rotoworld and 14TeamMocker of RotoViz went back and forth with me on a few occasions espousing affection for the little-known former undrafted wideout. Jon Moore also saw intriguing data points in what is an extremely impressive college production resume by Wilson.
Hardened in our resolve, standing firmly in our beliefs, there we were. The small group of Albert Wilson truthers united under the flag of a long-shot. Oxford defines “truther” as “a person who doubts the generally accepted account of an event.” The football world at large is riddled with them.
Of course, because I have no control over myself in these situations, I decided to bring others in on the fun:
In particular, I have an exceptionally hard time just letting it go. I’ve chased feelings long after it made sense to do so. Not seeing the way a situation was trending, I’ve stuck with the initial gut instinct that appeared at the onset. I’ll overthink a few words in an exchange for hours, play the same song on repeat for a week, and make a mediocre joke until it finally hits.
Given that history of clinging to my own version of reality despite the opposing evidence, I was setting myself for another iteration after penning a letter of support for Kansas City Chiefs receiver, Albert Wilson. It’s a train I didn’t jump on alone. Fellow fantasy writers Rich Hribar of Rotoworld and 14TeamMocker of RotoViz went back and forth with me on a few occasions espousing affection for the little-known former undrafted wideout. Jon Moore also saw intriguing data points in what is an extremely impressive college production resume by Wilson.
Hardened in our resolve, standing firmly in our beliefs, there we were. The small group of Albert Wilson truthers united under the flag of a long-shot. Oxford defines “truther” as “a person who doubts the generally accepted account of an event.” The football world at large is riddled with them.
Of course, because I have no control over myself in these situations, I decided to bring others in on the fun:
I’ve had a nice little run here in the fantasy industry. Yet, bringing first my colleagues at NFL Media, and then the listeners of our NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast into the Albert Wilson cult has to be near the top of my list of accomplishments. Starting with a few innocuous side references to my feeling that Wilson is truly a good player, all the way to drumming up the #BertAlert campaign on Twitter, NFL Fantasy fully embraced the movement.
However, where is this all leading us? If I’m answering the question honestly, the end of this story probably ends in a sympathetic pat on the shoulder and a good “it’s time to let it go” speech. In an offense where the starting quarterback threw the ball less than 475 times in each of the last two seasons, we’ll may never get the opportunity to see what Wilson can do on a regular basis.
With all that being said, I still believe there is good reason for those select few of us to hold out hope. One of the primary utilities of Reception Perception is to remove the noise of other variables and divorce the influence of a wide receiver’s surroundings from analyzing his individual play. When running Albert Wilson through the process, it becomes clear why he piques my interest.
In his eight-game Reception Perception sample, Albert Wilson only ran 199 routes. An average sample usually comes in the 240-route range. Speaking to his scant production Wilson only received a target on 17.6 percent of those routes run. He caught a pass on just nine-percent.
The Chiefs don’t offer a robust passing pie to begin with, and Wilson will always be cutting smaller slices than Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles. Not to mention, there are other talented options like Chris Conley lurking. As currently constructed, it’s quite unreasonable to expect any of that target data to spike by much, if at all.
However, a true measurement of a player’s quality must go beyond the opportunities afforded to them and even their production. That’s where the primary Reception Perception metrics come into play.
However, where is this all leading us? If I’m answering the question honestly, the end of this story probably ends in a sympathetic pat on the shoulder and a good “it’s time to let it go” speech. In an offense where the starting quarterback threw the ball less than 475 times in each of the last two seasons, we’ll may never get the opportunity to see what Wilson can do on a regular basis.
With all that being said, I still believe there is good reason for those select few of us to hold out hope. One of the primary utilities of Reception Perception is to remove the noise of other variables and divorce the influence of a wide receiver’s surroundings from analyzing his individual play. When running Albert Wilson through the process, it becomes clear why he piques my interest.
In his eight-game Reception Perception sample, Albert Wilson only ran 199 routes. An average sample usually comes in the 240-route range. Speaking to his scant production Wilson only received a target on 17.6 percent of those routes run. He caught a pass on just nine-percent.
The Chiefs don’t offer a robust passing pie to begin with, and Wilson will always be cutting smaller slices than Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles. Not to mention, there are other talented options like Chris Conley lurking. As currently constructed, it’s quite unreasonable to expect any of that target data to spike by much, if at all.
However, a true measurement of a player’s quality must go beyond the opportunities afforded to them and even their production. That’s where the primary Reception Perception metrics come into play.
We know the Chiefs run a rather stripped down passing game, and Wilson’s route percentage chart exemplifies that. The slant, dig and post patterns make up 41.7 percent of Wilson’s 199 sampled routes. All are in-breaking routes designed for the west coast offense. Given the conservative nature of the Kansas City passing game, it’s also no surprise that the nine-route comes in at a below average rate of 17.1 percent.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Wilson does mix in some more complicated assignments into his portfolio. He ran the out route at a rate above the NFL average, and the corner and curl right in line with the average.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Wilson does mix in some more complicated assignments into his portfolio. He ran the out route at a rate above the NFL average, and the corner and curl right in line with the average.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Starting with the negative, it’s clear Wilson isn’t a deep threat. Despite a solid 4.43 40-yard dash, his 38.2 percent Success Rate Vs. Coverage on nine-routes shows that’s not the area where he wins on the field. This is not much of a problem in the Kansas City offense, but it speaks to a limited upside projection down the road.
We recently looked at the importance of the curl route when it comes to finding these under-the-radar players who might exceed expectations based on their technical prowess. It’s not an ironclad conclusion, but it’s a limited trend developing in Reception Perception with a certain archetype of the wide receiver. Wilson doesn’t fit this mold, as his SRVC on curls comes in below the NFL average at 65.6 percent. The players mentioned alongside Willie Snead in the linked piece are some of the premier route runners in the NFL. Wilson falls more under the “good” route-runner distinction, at this time.
However, something that Wilson has that the previous group does not is above average measured athleticism. His height-adjusted speed score comes in at the 64th percentile, and even more indicative of his game, he owns a burst score in the 73rd percentile, per Player Profiler.
Winning in the short-area passing game, using that burst to slink away from defenders, is the strength of Wilson’s game. Not only is his 87 percent SRVC on slant routes a great scores, it’s one of the best ever charted for Reception Perception.
We recently looked at the importance of the curl route when it comes to finding these under-the-radar players who might exceed expectations based on their technical prowess. It’s not an ironclad conclusion, but it’s a limited trend developing in Reception Perception with a certain archetype of the wide receiver. Wilson doesn’t fit this mold, as his SRVC on curls comes in below the NFL average at 65.6 percent. The players mentioned alongside Willie Snead in the linked piece are some of the premier route runners in the NFL. Wilson falls more under the “good” route-runner distinction, at this time.
However, something that Wilson has that the previous group does not is above average measured athleticism. His height-adjusted speed score comes in at the 64th percentile, and even more indicative of his game, he owns a burst score in the 73rd percentile, per Player Profiler.
Winning in the short-area passing game, using that burst to slink away from defenders, is the strength of Wilson’s game. Not only is his 87 percent SRVC on slant routes a great scores, it’s one of the best ever charted for Reception Perception.
Top 5 slant route SRVC scores:
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 30, 2016
Dez: 94.9%
Antonio: 87.7%
Albert Wilson: 87%
Keenan: 86.2%
Demaryius Thomas: 85.7%#ReceptionPerception
Believe me, that list got the proper “one of these things doesn’t look like the other” response from Twitter. However, it’s quite impressive that Wilson finds himself in such company on the slant route. With the uptempo passing game becoming all the rage in the NFL these days, the slant is one of the highest run patterns (second highest rate among 2015 charted receivers at 20.5 percent). that strong burst at the breakpoints in routes extends to the deeper post variety, as his 69.6 percent SRVC is just above the NFL average.
Wilson doesn’t just have the burst that it takes to be a better than ordinary route-runner at the NFL level, he also mixes in the subtle nuances. He employs the head fakes, fluidity and false steps/jerks it takes to mix in proper deception in-route. Selling the defender he’s going one direction before snapping back the other way is a strength of Wilson’s game. His marks on slants and posts illustrate that, but his sterling 92.9 percent SRVC on out routes lends further credence.
When brought together into the single SRVC metrics, we see the different strengths and weaknesses of Wilson’s route acumen paint a clear picture of quality.
Wilson doesn’t just have the burst that it takes to be a better than ordinary route-runner at the NFL level, he also mixes in the subtle nuances. He employs the head fakes, fluidity and false steps/jerks it takes to mix in proper deception in-route. Selling the defender he’s going one direction before snapping back the other way is a strength of Wilson’s game. His marks on slants and posts illustrate that, but his sterling 92.9 percent SRVC on out routes lends further credence.
When brought together into the single SRVC metrics, we see the different strengths and weaknesses of Wilson’s route acumen paint a clear picture of quality.
(Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.)
The Chiefs did an excellent job of moving Jeremy Maclin all around the formation in his first year with the team. Any Reid and company put him in position to earn a number of favorable matchups to exploit his great talent. The collateral damage from that action meant that Albert Wilson played a fair amount against isolated press man coverage. Wilson took 89.3 percent of his Reception Perception sampled snaps outside, and was on the line of scrimmage for 65.3 percent.
Wilson held up to the task with great success. His SRVC scores against man (66.2) and press (70.7) were both above the NFL average. Earning leverage off the line of scrimmage and the deception brought further down the route make Wilson a smooth separator from tight coverage.
He also defeats zone coverage at an acceptable rate right along the NFL average with a 73.4 percent score. Wilson only registered three contest catch attempts in his sample, but came down with two of them for a 66.7% conversion rate.
What Reception Perception shows is that this is an underrated player, who gets open in his routes on a routine basis and generally completes the task assigned. For an undrafted receiver out of Georgia State, he’s more than carved out a fine career for himself in just two years. Of course, opportunity is the lifeblood of production and Wilson has not exactly piled that up. A closer look reveals that when the Chiefs called his number over the last two years, he delivered:
Wilson held up to the task with great success. His SRVC scores against man (66.2) and press (70.7) were both above the NFL average. Earning leverage off the line of scrimmage and the deception brought further down the route make Wilson a smooth separator from tight coverage.
He also defeats zone coverage at an acceptable rate right along the NFL average with a 73.4 percent score. Wilson only registered three contest catch attempts in his sample, but came down with two of them for a 66.7% conversion rate.
What Reception Perception shows is that this is an underrated player, who gets open in his routes on a routine basis and generally completes the task assigned. For an undrafted receiver out of Georgia State, he’s more than carved out a fine career for himself in just two years. Of course, opportunity is the lifeblood of production and Wilson has not exactly piled that up. A closer look reveals that when the Chiefs called his number over the last two years, he delivered:
The Chiefs loss to the Patriots in the playoffs this past January served as an example. With Jeremy Maclin out, Wilson filled in solidly with 57 yards and a touchdown. Armed with those splits in conjunction with his surprisingly strong Reception Perception results, we can at least dare to imagine that Wilson has the ability to produce if ever more targets went his way. He’s stashed on my dynasty rosters just in case that ever happens, and he should be on your’s too.
Of course, the odds of this dream ever being realized are slim. Even if Albert Wilson ever got out from under the clamping jaws of one of the Chiefs low-volume pass offense, his lack of draft pedigree and the NFL’s obsession with it could easily cause him to get overlooked elsewhere.
So Albert Wilson might never be a fantasy football asset or fill up the stat sheets. I don’t care. Rather, Reception Perception is here to celebrate the accomplishments of an unheralded player who climbed the latter to start in his second NFL season. Even more so, the methodology and Wilson’s results should go to show he’s every bit earned that role and developed into a fine contributor. The Kansas City organization is no doubt happy to have him as a part of their winning formula.
So with that, I hope you’ll join the original core group, my NFL Fantasy colleagues and all those converted when we do get those small glimpses of the ability we know to be present shining through. Sound the #BertAlert alarm, for we stand united, the Albert Wilson truthers.
Of course, the odds of this dream ever being realized are slim. Even if Albert Wilson ever got out from under the clamping jaws of one of the Chiefs low-volume pass offense, his lack of draft pedigree and the NFL’s obsession with it could easily cause him to get overlooked elsewhere.
So Albert Wilson might never be a fantasy football asset or fill up the stat sheets. I don’t care. Rather, Reception Perception is here to celebrate the accomplishments of an unheralded player who climbed the latter to start in his second NFL season. Even more so, the methodology and Wilson’s results should go to show he’s every bit earned that role and developed into a fine contributor. The Kansas City organization is no doubt happy to have him as a part of their winning formula.
So with that, I hope you’ll join the original core group, my NFL Fantasy colleagues and all those converted when we do get those small glimpses of the ability we know to be present shining through. Sound the #BertAlert alarm, for we stand united, the Albert Wilson truthers.
BERT ALERT!!! Alex Smith to Albert Wilson TD! #SDvsKC pic.twitter.com/SKnHe6vYqW
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLfantasy) December 13, 2015
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