Contact: mharmon2570@gmail.com
  Backyard Banter
  • Home
  • Backyard Banter Podcast
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 54: Kyle Crabbs - Build my own chair at the table
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 53: James Koh - Divorce the information from emotion
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 52: Will Brinson - That's how it'll have to be
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 51: Charles McDonald - Not an escape from reality
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 50: What you've learned - For you, by you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 49: Jourdan Rodrigue - Let's see what you think then
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 48: Justin Twell - Long process to come back
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 47: Justin Lonero - It's time to relearn life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 46: Scott Bischoff - Life presented the greatest challenge possible
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 45: Al Zeidenfeld - Little steps along the way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 44: Jason Romano - Just a different dream
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 43: Matt Harmon - But here we are (Season 1 finale)
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 42: Gregg Rosenthal - I have to make it work or else
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 41: Jon Moore - Determiner of what I want
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 40: Uncle Chaps - Just have fun with it
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 39: Bob Harris - The best addiction I've ever had
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 38: Scott Fish - Everybody working together to make this big
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 37: Jene Bramel - Ask the questions you want answered
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 36: Mike Tagliere - Never going to leave this candy store
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 35: Ben Cummins - Starting at ground zero
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 34: Field Yates - It's the nature of what we do
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 33: Chris Heil - I gave it everything I had
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 32: Sal Stefanile - Just make them notice you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 31: Adam Levitan - Accept an alternate lifestyle
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 30: Matthew Freedman - It's not built for everyone
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 29: George Kritikos - If your heart's not in it people notice
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 28: Marcas Grant - Certainly never expected this
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 27: Steve Palazzolo - I understand the questions that come
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 26: Matt Miller - To build bridges not burn them
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 25: Graham Barfield - A human game played by humans
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 24: Pat Daugherty - I just said yes to everything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 23: Eric Galko - There's always work to be done
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 22: TJ Hernandez - In some roundabout way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 21: Alex Gelhar - Homework for the rest of your life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 20: The Fantasy Footballers - Because we were fans
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 19: Jessica Kleinschmidt - The scariest person you deal with is yourself
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 18: Evan Silva - A willingness to work hard
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 17: Jeff Risdon - It's hard to be in the middle
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 16: Cecil Lammey - Because I didn't ask for anything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 15: Patrick Claybon - If you shine people will see you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 14: Denny Carter - People want to know you
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 13: Adam Rank - Honestly just don't go away
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 12: Adam Pfeifer - Being happy is doing this
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 11: Mark Schofield - You get one drive in this life
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 10: Liz Loza - Ride the horse in the direction it's going
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 9: Matthew Berry - I've done it without being negative to anyone
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 8: Matt Franciscovich - Persistence is a huge deal
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 7: Matt Williamson - I got lucky, but I made my own luck
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 6: Eric Stoner - Passions are best left as hobbies
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 5: Josh Norris - You don't have to have an opinion on everything
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 4: Rumford Johnny - Elevate somebody or get out of their way
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 3: JJ Zachariason - No one cares because you're not established
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 2: Matt Waldman - Popular doesn't necessarily make it good
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast episode 1 - Sigmund Bloom
  • Fantasy Hipsters
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 28: We''l see you in a bit.
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 27: "Ehhh how about you people relax with that one"
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 26: Mail Satchel - Davante Adams debate & "friends of the show"
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 25: NFL Network's Top 100 Players This or That
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 24: Mail Satchel - Surviving without Charlie and Tight Ends to Watch
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 23: Jeremy Maclin reaction, news recap and did Harmon pull off that hat?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 22: Mail satchel - WE ARE THE PODCAST OF THE PEOPLE
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 21: Reception Perception review of sleepers, breakouts and surprises
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 20: Evan Silva destroys our MFL10 hopes and dreams
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 19: Mail satchel - Will Brandon Marshall thrive with the Giants in 2017?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 18: We Are Pretty Mad
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 17: Mail satchel - Rompers, clean eating and the 2007 NFL Draft class
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 16: NFL depth chart breakdowns and being sick of bad Eddie Lacy jokes
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 15: Mail satchel - Drafting too many rookies, breakouts and bell-cow RBs
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 14: French press vs. pour over coffee & mock draft review with James Koh
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 13: Mail satchel - Los Angeles Chargers the hipster's team of 2017?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 12: NFL Draft rookie fits and a cast iron running back with Matt Waldman
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 11: NFL Draft preview and drumset vomit with Josh Norris of Rotoworld
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast Episode 10: Mail satchel - Dynasty debate, bad impressions and hipster bands
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 9: Perfect Prospect Parings — identifying NFL fits for draft prospects
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 8: Corey Davis, DeVante Parker and what to drink at your draft
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 7: Carlos Hyde, Laquon Treadwell and NFL Draft rookie big board part 3
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 6: Valuing Jordan Howard for 2017 and NFL Draft rookie big board part 2
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 5: NFL Draft rookie top-12 big board and in-depth beer interview
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 4: Kaepernick saga, Harmon shaves his beard and Franchise gets roasted
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast Episode 3: Eddie Lacy, Free Agency, music & beer and picking best QB roommate
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 2: Early Free Agency Fallout, Combine Standouts & Mailbag
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 1: NFL Scouting Combine preview and washed vets
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast: Teaser episode introduction
  • Reception Perception: 2017
    • Reception Perception: Investigating any correlation between the results and draft prospect age
  • The 2016 Reception Perception Project
    • Reception Perception: 11 flags planted for the 2016 season
    • Reception Perception: Nelson Agholor can bounce-back in Doug Pederson's offense
    • Reception Perception: Improved technician Donte Moncrief is set to explode in 2016
    • Reception Perception: Only one concern can hold Sammy Watkins back from his ceiling
    • Reception Perception: Bruce Ellington has a chance to flash this season with the 49ers
    • Reception Perception: Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther
    • Reception Perception: Willie Snead built an impressive resume we must not ignore
    • Reception Perception: Welcome the ascending Tyler Lockett to rarified status
    • Reception Perception: Kamar Aiken is the answer to the Ravens receiver riddle
    • Reception Perception: DeSean Jackson and Josh Doctson make the Washington wide receivers a strength
    • Reception Perception: Browns make a refreshing first pick in Corey Coleman
    • Reception Perception: The fruitless search for fatal flaws with Laquon Treadwell
    • Reception Perception: Why there will never be a cumulative or overall grade
    • Reception Perception: The changing variables for Torrey Smith point to a rebound
    • Reception Perception: 2016 media appearances
    • Reception Perception: Rashard Higgins - never tell me the odds
    • Reception Perception: Keyarris Garrett is a unicorn in this draft class
    • Reception Perception: Malcolm Mitchell is a top-10 receiver in the 2016 NFL Draft
    • Reception Perception: 2016 NFL draft prospects results
    • Reception Perception: Golden Tate won't be able to replace Calvin Johnson
    • Reception Perception: Jeff Janis, trump cards and sorting through the noise
    • Reception Perception: Top-four college receiver primer
  • The 2015 Reception Perception Project
    • Reception Perception Based Media Appearances
    • Reception Perception: Steve Johnson is the Surest Sleeper Around
    • Reception Perception: Target and Contested Catch Data for Sophomore WRs
    • Reception Perception: Success Rate vs. Coverage Scores for the Sophomore Wide Receivers
    • Reception Perception: Why we Must Consider the Entire Range of Outcomes for Sammy Watkins
    • Reception Perception: Data Results from Year 1
    • Reception Perception: Scanning Through the Dolphins Receiving Corps for Fantasy Answers
    • Reception Perception: Allen Robinson is Quietly on the Precipice of a Massive Breakout
    • Reception Perception: Michael Crabtree is Exactly What the Raiders’ Passing Game Needs
    • Reception Perception: Justin Hunter and Wisely Shopping the Clearance Bins
    • Reception Perception: How Kevin White Began His Ascension to the Top
    • Reception Perception: Sammie Coates Falls Along a Dangerous Archetype
    • Reception Perception: A Video Rundown of the Data
    • Reception Perception: New Browns Receiver Dwayne Bowe Bring Value to a Depleted Pass Game
    • Reception Perception: Expectations and an Odd Coupling Doomed Mike Wallace in Miami
    • Reception Perception: Andre Johnson Still has Plenty Left to Offer the Colts
    • Reception Perception: Randall Cobb Made the Right Call Sticking With the Packers
    • Reception Perception: Where Do We Go From Here, Percy Harvin?
    • Reception Perception: Devin Smith and The Value of a Trump Card (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: The Siren Song of Dorial Green-Beckham (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Impending Free Agent Michael Crabtree
    • Reception Perception: Amari Cooper Under the Microscope (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Sammy Watkins and Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Matt Harmon's in-season film review blog
  • Bio Page
  • Harmon's Fantasy Football Tiered Rankings
  • The Backyard Banter Quarterback Typology
  • Analyzing the Landing Spots for the First Round Wide Recievers
  • Reception Perception
    • Reception Perception: Cordarrelle Patterson and a Developing Story
    • Reception Perception: Jordy Nelson and Mastering the Little Things
  • Ramblings
    • Rebuilding a broken house: losing weight, changing my lifestyle and never looking back
    • Fighting through negativity bias and a wide receiver's drops
    • Saying Goodbye to Dixie
    • The #FreeAustinTice Campaign
    • My Reaction to Adrian Peterson and The Cycle of Abuse
    • Steve Smith: A Lesson in the Dangers of Emotional Football
    • The Arizona Cardinals Will Make the Playoffs
    • The Redskins Better Not Blow This Thing Up
    • The Commodification of NFL Players
    • Digging Deeper: Why Josh Freeman Failed with the Buccaneers
    • The Fall of Aaron Hernandez and the Patriot Way
    • Washington Redskins Injury Concerns
    • Carolina Panther's Draft Bungles
    • Stubbornness the Silent Coaching Killer
  • The Fantasy Gameplan Podcast
  • Draft Class Jersey Number Grades
  • The Eye in the Sky
    • The Eye in the Sky: The St. Louis Rams Should Commit to Sam Bradford for 2014
    • The Eye in the Sky: Why the Cardinals Struggle Against Tight Ends
    • The Eye in the Sky: Uncovering a Diamond in the Rough, Mike Brown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Uncovering a Diamond in the Rough, Brandon Bostick
    • The Eye in the Sky: E.J. Manuel's Improvement All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Why Defending the Colts Offense is too Easy All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Picking Apart the Jets Defense All-22 Breakdown
    • Eye in the Sky: Texans vs. Chiefs (Week Seven) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Redskins vs. Cowboys (Week Six) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Panthers vs. Cardinals (Week Five) All-22 Breakdown
    • The Eye in the Sky: Colts vs. Seahawks (Week Five)
  • 2014 Free Agent Profiles
    • Josh McCown Free Agent Profile
    • Jason Hatcher Free Agent Profile
    • Jarius Byrd Free Agent Profile
    • T.J. Ward Free Agent Profile
    • Lamarr Houston Free Agent Profile
    • Darrelle Revis Free Agent Profile
    • Eric Decker Free Agent Profile
    • Jared Veldheer Free Agent Profile
    • DeMarcus Ware Free Agent Profile
    • Tyson Jackson Free Agent Profile
    • Jon Asamoah Free Agent Profile
    • Michael Johnson Free Agent Profile
    • Brandon Albert Free Agent Profile
    • Louis Delmas Free Agent Profile
    • Red Bryant Free Agent Profile
    • John Carlson Free Agent Profile
    • D'Qwell Jackson Free Agent Profile
  • BYOB Forums (Bring Your Own Banter)
  • 2014 NFL Free Agency Position Breakdowns
    • 2014 Quarterback Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Running Back Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Fullback Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Wide Receiver Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Tight End Free Agent Rankings
    • 2014 Offensive Tackle Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Offensive Guard Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Offensive Center Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Interior Defensive Lineman Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Edge Player Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Linebacker Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Cornerback Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Safety Free Agent Breakdown
    • 2014 Specialist Free Agent Breakdown
  • 2014 NFL Draft Content
    • 2014 NFL Draft Tiered Prospect Big Board (Top 75)
    • 2014 Tiered Colored Position Board
    • 2014 NFL Draft Tiered Prospect Big Board (Top 32)
    • 2014 NFL Draft Top 10 Quarterback Ranking
    • 2014 NFL Draft Running Back Top 10 Ranking
    • 2014 NFL Mock Draft--Post Free Agency
    • 2014 NFL Mock Draft--Pre Free Agency
    • 2014 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Top 10 Ranking
  • Sunday Mornin' Comin' Down
    • April 27th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • April 13th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • April 6th Sunday Morning Coming Down
    • March 30th Sunday Morning Coming Down
  • 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Seventeen 2013 Power Rankings
    • Week Sixteen 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Fifteen 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Fourteen 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Thirteen 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Twelve 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Eleven 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Ten 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Nine 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Eight 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Seven 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Six 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Five 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Four 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Three 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • Week Two 2013 NFL Power Rankings
    • 2013 Season Preview Edition/Week One
  • 2013 Weekly NFL Previews
    • Super Bowl Preview
    • Playoffs- Conference Championship Round NFL Preview
    • Playoffs- Divisional Round NFL Preview
    • Playoffs- Wildcard Round NFL Preview
    • Week Sixteen NFL Preview
    • Week Fifteen NFL Preview
    • Week Fourteen NFL Preview
    • Week Thirteen NFL Preview
    • Week Twelve Picks
    • Week Eleven Picks
    • Week Ten Picks
    • Week Nine Picks
    • Week Eight Picks
    • Week Seven Picks
    • Week Six Picks
    • Week Five Picks
    • Week Four Picks
    • Week Three Picks
    • Week Two Picks
    • Week One Picks
  • Week in Review 2013
    • Playoffs- Wildcard Round in Review
    • Week Seventeen in Review
    • Week Sixteen in Review
    • Week Fifteen in Review
    • Week Fourteen in Review
    • Week Thirteen in Review
    • Week Twelve in Review
    • Week Eleven in Review
    • Week Ten in Review
    • Week Nine in Review
    • Week Eight in Review
    • Week Seven in Review
    • Week Six in Review
    • Week Five in Review
    • Week Four in Review
    • Week Three in Review
    • Week Two in Review
    • Week One in Review
  • 2013 Team Record Predictions
    • AFC Record Predictions
    • NFC Record Predictions
  • Rapid Reactions
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Eleven
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Ten
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Nine
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Eight
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Seven
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Six
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Five
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Four
    • Rapid Reactions Heading into Week Three
  • The 2013 All-Surprise Teams
    • AFC 2013 All-Surprise Team
    • NFC 2013 All-Surprise Team
  • NFL Player Rankings (2013)
    • Top 10 NFL Quarterback Rankings
    • Top 10 NFL Running Back Rankings
    • Top 10 NFL Wide Receiver Rankings
    • Top 10 NFL Tight End Rankings
    • Top 10 Offensive Linemen Rankings
    • Top 10 NFL Defensive Lineman Rankings
  • 2013 Season Archives
    • How to Fix 'em (2013 Offseason) >
      • Kansas City Chiefs
      • Jacksonville Jaguars
      • Oakland Raiders
      • Philadelphia Eagles
      • Detroit Lions
      • Cleveland Browns
      • Arizona Cardinals
      • Buffalo Bills
      • New York Jets
      • Tennessee Titans
      • San Diego Chargers
      • Miami Dolphins
      • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • 2012 Season Archives
    • The Backyard Banter 2012 Season Awards
    • Fantasy Football Corner >
      • Week Twelve Fantasy Football Tips
      • Week Eleven Fantasy Football Tips
      • Week Ten Fantasy Football Tips
      • Week Nine Fantasy Football Rankings and Tips
      • Week Eight Fantasy Football Rankings and Tips
    • Untitled
    • NFL Power Rankings (2012) >
      • Championship Round
      • Divisional Round
      • Wild Card Round
      • Week 17
      • Week 16
      • Week 7
      • Week 6
      • Week 5
      • Week 4
      • Week 3
      • Week 2
      • Week 1
      • Season Preview Edition 8/18
    • My Weekly NFL Picks (2012) >
      • Super Bowl Pick
      • Championship Round
      • Divisional Round
      • Wild Card Round
      • Week 17 Picks
      • Week 16 Picks
    • Week in Review (2012) >
      • The Super Bowl
      • Divisional Round
      • Wild Card Round
      • Week 17
      • Week 16
      • Week 5
      • Week 4
      • Week 3
      • Week 2
      • Week 1

Reception Perception: Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther

By: Matt Harmon
​June 30th, 2016
Picture
A secret Reception Perception favorite, Albert Wilson has the ability to produce when called upon (Image: Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports)
You need to let it go. It’s a phrase most all of us hear more than a handful of times in our lives. Persistent clinging to the reality we perceive and desire so desperately to be real when all the objective raw data preaches the contrary can be our undoing.

In particular, I have an exceptionally hard time just letting it go. I’ve chased feelings long after it made sense to do so. Not seeing the way a situation was trending, I’ve stuck with the initial gut instinct that appeared at the onset. I’ll overthink a few words in an exchange for hours, play the same song on repeat for a week, and make a mediocre joke until it finally hits. 

Given that history of clinging to my own version of reality despite the opposing evidence, I was setting myself for another iteration after penning a letter of support for Kansas City Chiefs receiver, Albert Wilson. It’s a train I didn’t jump on alone. Fellow fantasy writers Rich Hribar of Rotoworld and 14TeamMocker of RotoViz went back and forth with me on a few occasions espousing affection for the little-known former undrafted wideout. Jon Moore also saw intriguing data points in what is an extremely impressive college production resume by Wilson. 

Hardened in our resolve, standing firmly in our beliefs, there we were. The small group of Albert Wilson truthers united under the flag of a long-shot. Oxford defines “truther” as “a person who doubts the generally accepted account of an event.” The football world at large is riddled with them.

Of course, because I have no control over myself in these situations, I decided to bring others in on the fun:
Picture
I’ve had a nice little run here in the fantasy industry. Yet, bringing first my colleagues at NFL Media, and then the listeners of our NFL Fantasy LIVE podcast into the Albert Wilson cult has to be near the top of my list of accomplishments. Starting with a few innocuous side references to my feeling that Wilson is truly a good player, all the way to drumming up the #BertAlert campaign on Twitter, NFL Fantasy fully embraced the movement. 

However, where is this all leading us? If I’m answering the question honestly, the end of this story probably ends in a sympathetic pat on the shoulder and a good “it’s time to let it go” speech. In an offense where the starting quarterback threw the ball less than 475 times in each of the last two seasons, we’ll may never get the opportunity to see what Wilson can do on a regular basis. 

With all that being said, I still believe there is good reason for those select few of us to hold out hope. One of the primary utilities of Reception Perception is to remove the noise of other variables and divorce the influence of a wide receiver’s surroundings from analyzing his individual play. When running Albert Wilson through the process, it becomes clear why he piques my interest.

In his eight-game Reception Perception sample, Albert Wilson only ran 199 routes. An average sample usually comes in the 240-route range. Speaking to his scant production Wilson only received a target on 17.6 percent of those routes run. He caught a pass on just nine-percent. 

The Chiefs don’t offer a robust passing pie to begin with, and Wilson will always be cutting smaller slices than Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles. Not to mention, there are other talented options like Chris Conley lurking. As currently constructed, it’s quite unreasonable to expect any of that target data to spike by much, if at all.

However, a true measurement of a player’s quality must go beyond the opportunities afforded to them and even their production. That’s where the primary Reception Perception metrics come into play.
Picture
We know the Chiefs run a rather stripped down passing game, and Wilson’s route percentage chart exemplifies that. The slant, dig and post patterns make up 41.7 percent of Wilson’s 199 sampled routes. All are in-breaking routes designed for the west coast offense. Given the conservative nature of the Kansas City passing game, it’s also no surprise that the nine-route comes in at a below average rate of 17.1 percent. 

Elsewhere on the route tree, Wilson does mix in some more complicated assignments into his portfolio. He ran the out route at a rate above the NFL average, and the corner and curl right in line with the average. 
Picture
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
​Starting with the negative, it’s clear Wilson isn’t a deep threat. Despite a solid 4.43 40-yard dash, his 38.2 percent Success Rate Vs. Coverage on nine-routes shows that’s not the area where he wins on the field. This is not much of a problem in the Kansas City offense, but it speaks to a limited upside projection down the road. 

We recently looked at the importance of the curl route when it comes to finding these under-the-radar players who might exceed expectations based on their technical prowess. It’s not an ironclad conclusion, but it’s a limited trend developing in Reception Perception with a certain archetype of the wide receiver. Wilson doesn’t fit this mold, as his SRVC on curls comes in below the NFL average at 65.6 percent. The players mentioned alongside Willie Snead in the linked piece are some of the premier route runners in the NFL. Wilson falls more under the “good” route-runner distinction, at this time.

However, something that Wilson has that the previous group does not is above average measured athleticism. His height-adjusted speed score comes in at the 64th percentile, and  even more indicative of his game, he owns a burst score in the 73rd percentile, per Player Profiler.

Winning in the short-area passing game, using that burst to slink away from defenders, is the strength of Wilson’s game. Not only is his 87 percent SRVC on slant routes a great scores, it’s one of the best ever charted for Reception Perception.

Top 5 slant route SRVC scores:

Dez: 94.9%
Antonio: 87.7%
Albert Wilson: 87%
Keenan: 86.2%
Demaryius Thomas: 85.7%#ReceptionPerception

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 30, 2016
Believe me, that list got the proper “one of these things doesn’t look like the other” response from Twitter. However, it’s quite impressive that Wilson finds himself in such company on the slant route. With the uptempo passing game becoming all the rage in the NFL these days, the slant is one of the highest run patterns (second highest rate among 2015 charted receivers at 20.5 percent). that strong burst at the breakpoints in routes extends to the deeper post variety, as his 69.6 percent SRVC is just above the NFL average.

Wilson doesn’t just have the burst that it takes to be a better than ordinary route-runner at the NFL level, he also mixes in the subtle nuances. He employs the head fakes, fluidity and false steps/jerks it takes to mix in proper deception in-route. Selling the defender he’s going one direction before snapping back the other way is a strength of Wilson’s game. His marks on slants and posts illustrate that, but his sterling 92.9 percent SRVC on out routes lends further credence. 

When brought together into the single SRVC metrics, we see the different strengths and weaknesses of Wilson’s route acumen paint a clear picture of quality.
Picture
(Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.)
The Chiefs did an excellent job of moving Jeremy Maclin all around the formation in his first year with the team. Any Reid and company put him in position to earn a number of favorable matchups to exploit his great talent. The collateral damage from that action meant that Albert Wilson played a fair amount against isolated press man coverage. Wilson took 89.3 percent of his Reception Perception sampled snaps outside, and was on the line of scrimmage for 65.3 percent. 

Wilson held up to the task with great success. His SRVC scores against man (66.2) and press (70.7) were both above the NFL average. Earning leverage off the line of scrimmage and the deception brought further down the route make Wilson a smooth separator from tight coverage. 

He also defeats zone coverage at an acceptable rate right along the NFL average with a 73.4 percent score. Wilson only registered three contest catch attempts in his sample, but came down with two of them for a 66.7% conversion rate. 

What Reception Perception shows is that this is an underrated player, who gets open in his routes on a routine basis and generally completes the task assigned. For an undrafted receiver out of Georgia State, he’s more than carved out a fine career for himself in just two years. Of course, opportunity is the lifeblood of production and Wilson has not exactly piled that up. A closer look reveals that when the Chiefs called his number over the last two years, he delivered:
Picture
The Chiefs loss to the Patriots in the playoffs this past January served as an example. With Jeremy Maclin out, Wilson filled in solidly with 57 yards and a touchdown. Armed with those splits in conjunction with his surprisingly strong Reception Perception results, we can at least dare to imagine that Wilson has the ability to produce if ever more targets went his way. He’s stashed on my dynasty rosters just in case that ever happens, and he should be on your’s too.

Of course, the odds of this dream ever being realized are slim. Even if Albert Wilson ever got out from under the clamping jaws of one of the Chiefs low-volume pass offense, his lack of draft pedigree and the NFL’s obsession with it could easily cause him to get overlooked elsewhere. 

So Albert Wilson might never be a fantasy football asset or fill up the stat sheets. I don’t care. Rather, Reception Perception is here to celebrate the accomplishments of an unheralded player who climbed the latter to start in his second NFL season. Even more so, the methodology and Wilson’s results should go to show he’s every bit earned that role and developed into a fine contributor. The Kansas City organization is no doubt happy to have him as a part of their winning formula.

So with that, I hope you’ll join the original core group, my NFL Fantasy colleagues and all those converted when we do get those small glimpses of the ability we know to be present shining through. Sound the #BertAlert alarm, for we stand united, the Albert Wilson truthers.

BERT ALERT!!! Alex Smith to Albert Wilson TD! #SDvsKC pic.twitter.com/SKnHe6vYqW

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLfantasy) December 13, 2015

Comment Form is loading comments...
Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.