Reception Perception: 2016 NFL Draft prospect results
By: Matt Harmon
March 1, 2016
March 1, 2016
Josh Doctson's Reception Perception results cement his status as one of the best receivers in the draft (Image: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
With my position at NFL Media this season, I was able to access the All22 tape to collect Reception Perception samples on NFL Draft prospects throughout the year. The methodology only got a chance to delve into a select few college players last season, and most on partial samples, so debuting this data is a big step for Reception Perception.
For the 2016 NFL Draft, we have a set of 21 wide receiver prospects put through full-scale Reception Perception samples. Yes, there are more than 21 wideouts who will merit NFL consideration this season. However, with time constraints and much more work to do on NFL players, these 21 will likely be the only prospects sampled for the study during this draft season. I trust there is more than enough data for you to enjoy here.
The only difference between the charting process for college prospects compared to an NFL player is the sampled games. Since the NCAA season is shorter than the professional counterpart, college players’ data tends to normalize at six games, rather than it does in eight for NFL receivers.
Here's a quick refresher on the information Reception Perception provides and how to interpret the following metrics:
Route Percentage – how often a receiver runs each pattern on the route tree.
Success Rate vs. Coverage (SRVC) scores – how often a receiver got open against the defenders covering him. A success is charted when a receiver "gets open" against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target for the quarterback, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him. There are five formats for SRVC scores:
- SRVC against man
- SRVC against zone
- SRVC against press
- SRVC on each type of route run
- SRVC against double coverage
Alignment Data – charting where a receiver lined up on each snap (slot, outside right, outside left or in the backfield), and whether they were on the line of scrimmage or not.
PPR Fantasy Points on each route (PTS) – this helps shed light on just how a receiver amassed their production.
Target Data – fairly self-explanatory, but not just targets, receptions and catch rate. Reception Perception tracks on how many times a receiver was targeted per route run, and how many routes they caught a pass on. This shows true involvement in the offense.
Contested catch conversion rate - how often a receiver successfully catches a pass where he is in traffic and has to leave his feet.
"In space" metrics - how often when a receiver gets an opportunity to run in the open field does he get dropped on first contact, break one tackle, or break multiple tackles.
A visual learner, you say? Well, you can see the series' data points explained in a video format, for your convenience.
For all the spreadsheets, Green indicates the figure is above the 2016 prospect average, yellow is within a one percent data point of the average, and red is below the average.
For the 2016 NFL Draft, we have a set of 21 wide receiver prospects put through full-scale Reception Perception samples. Yes, there are more than 21 wideouts who will merit NFL consideration this season. However, with time constraints and much more work to do on NFL players, these 21 will likely be the only prospects sampled for the study during this draft season. I trust there is more than enough data for you to enjoy here.
The only difference between the charting process for college prospects compared to an NFL player is the sampled games. Since the NCAA season is shorter than the professional counterpart, college players’ data tends to normalize at six games, rather than it does in eight for NFL receivers.
Here's a quick refresher on the information Reception Perception provides and how to interpret the following metrics:
Route Percentage – how often a receiver runs each pattern on the route tree.
Success Rate vs. Coverage (SRVC) scores – how often a receiver got open against the defenders covering him. A success is charted when a receiver "gets open" against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target for the quarterback, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him. There are five formats for SRVC scores:
- SRVC against man
- SRVC against zone
- SRVC against press
- SRVC on each type of route run
- SRVC against double coverage
Alignment Data – charting where a receiver lined up on each snap (slot, outside right, outside left or in the backfield), and whether they were on the line of scrimmage or not.
PPR Fantasy Points on each route (PTS) – this helps shed light on just how a receiver amassed their production.
Target Data – fairly self-explanatory, but not just targets, receptions and catch rate. Reception Perception tracks on how many times a receiver was targeted per route run, and how many routes they caught a pass on. This shows true involvement in the offense.
Contested catch conversion rate - how often a receiver successfully catches a pass where he is in traffic and has to leave his feet.
"In space" metrics - how often when a receiver gets an opportunity to run in the open field does he get dropped on first contact, break one tackle, or break multiple tackles.
A visual learner, you say? Well, you can see the series' data points explained in a video format, for your convenience.
For all the spreadsheets, Green indicates the figure is above the 2016 prospect average, yellow is within a one percent data point of the average, and red is below the average.
Alignment data
Much of the buzz around this draft season will circle around Braxton Miller and whether he can make a successful full-time transition to wide receiver. Reception Perception will offer some clues, but his alignment data reminds us this year was far from conclusive. Miller led this group of prospects with 15.7 percent of his snaps coming in the backfield. He also rarely played outside, with two other NFL prospects holding down the exterior of the offense.
Over the last several draft classes, the trend of college receivers entering the league with experience lining up on just one side of the field continues emerging. Last year, both Kevin White and Dorial Green-Beckham fit that mold. This year, All four of Kenny Lawler (98.5), Keyarris Garrett (97.6) and Josh Doctson (94.3) took over 94 percent of their Reception Perception sampled snaps from the right wide receiver spot. Roger Lewis with 88 percent on the right, and Laqoun Treadwell with 85 percent on the left, were not far behind. It seems as if college coaches find this to be an advantage in having their star pass catchers in one designated position, but it at least begs whether we ought wonder of a larger NFL learning curve.
Seven receivers finished with an above average rate of snaps in the slot. Pharoh Cooper is a favorite of many, and he led this group of prospects with 84.3 percent of his snaps coming from the slot. Sterling Shepard took 67.7 percent of his snaps from the slot, and many hold firm to the belief he will remain an interior option at the NFL level. However, don’t ignore the fact that he also played outside right, and lined up on the line of scrimmage for 75.3 percent of his snaps. Receivers have to deal with tighter coverage in that position, and Shepard was certainly tested with such in college.
Believers in Pittsburgh’s Tyler Boyd are quick to remind us that he played in a more specialized role than normal this season. They are correct in their assessment, as Boyd lined up in the backfield on 10.3 percent of his snaps, and played in the slot on 36.9 percent.
Michael Thomas out of Southern Mississippi, and Tajae Sharpe were the most versatile players as far as alignment position is concerned. Both played an above average rate from the slot, but Sharpe also played a fair bit a flanker and Thomas at X-receiver.
Over the last several draft classes, the trend of college receivers entering the league with experience lining up on just one side of the field continues emerging. Last year, both Kevin White and Dorial Green-Beckham fit that mold. This year, All four of Kenny Lawler (98.5), Keyarris Garrett (97.6) and Josh Doctson (94.3) took over 94 percent of their Reception Perception sampled snaps from the right wide receiver spot. Roger Lewis with 88 percent on the right, and Laqoun Treadwell with 85 percent on the left, were not far behind. It seems as if college coaches find this to be an advantage in having their star pass catchers in one designated position, but it at least begs whether we ought wonder of a larger NFL learning curve.
Seven receivers finished with an above average rate of snaps in the slot. Pharoh Cooper is a favorite of many, and he led this group of prospects with 84.3 percent of his snaps coming from the slot. Sterling Shepard took 67.7 percent of his snaps from the slot, and many hold firm to the belief he will remain an interior option at the NFL level. However, don’t ignore the fact that he also played outside right, and lined up on the line of scrimmage for 75.3 percent of his snaps. Receivers have to deal with tighter coverage in that position, and Shepard was certainly tested with such in college.
Believers in Pittsburgh’s Tyler Boyd are quick to remind us that he played in a more specialized role than normal this season. They are correct in their assessment, as Boyd lined up in the backfield on 10.3 percent of his snaps, and played in the slot on 36.9 percent.
Michael Thomas out of Southern Mississippi, and Tajae Sharpe were the most versatile players as far as alignment position is concerned. Both played an above average rate from the slot, but Sharpe also played a fair bit a flanker and Thomas at X-receiver.
Target per route data
It was hard to imagine any prospect ever besting Amari Cooper’s insane 43 percent target-per-route rate last season. Yet, Corey Coleman checked in with an eye-popping 47.9 rate. Of course, that comes with a major caveat given the offense that he played in. If you’ve ever watched Coleman’s tape, you know that there are pass plays where he just trots down the field, and does nothing of consequence. That is not something hold against him, as it is what the Baylor receivers are coached to do. However, those plays are not charted as running a route, and therefore his route rate stats are skewed.
With that in mind, it should only reinforce just how impressive Josh Docton’s route rate stats are. He clocked in just behind Coleman with a target on 41.6 percent of his 209 routes, and a catch on 31.1 percent, which was more than his counterpart. Not many more receivers simply dominated their team’s offensive share like Doctson did this year.
Charon Peake was not a major factor in Clemson’s offense, as he was targeted on just 25.5 percent of his 145 routes. Peake’s size and 40-yard dash performance at the NFL Scouting Combine at least raise the question of whether he was underutilized.
Two marketshare darlings, Leonte Carroo and Roger Lewis, clocked in with target-per-route rates a bit lower than expected. Carroo’s was at least in line with the average but Lewis’ low number raises questions.
Three receivers, De’Runnya Wilson, Aaron Burbidge and Laquon Treadwell held target-per-route rates above the prospect average, but catch-per-route rates lower than the average. It’s fair to wonder if their college teams asked too much of Wilson and Burbidge. Treadwell’s appearance with these two is surprising, but his inefficient production profile is a big reason why some can’t get on board with him as a top-level prospect.
My readers should know my strong feelings on drops as a part of a wide receiver’s evaluation. However, this class has a ton of players that displayed drop issues in college, and it starts at the very top. Corey Coleman (8.6) and Laquon Treadwell (9.5) showed some lapses in hauling in clean catches. Will Fuller is known for his flashy speed, but his drop issues are real with a 9.1 rate. Southern Mississippi’s Michael Thomas leads the group with an 11.3 drop rate, perhaps contributing to his curious combine snub. As always, with these players and their peers, the evaluation will hang more on whether they have trump cards, or other facets of their games that make the drops worth living with. We’ll discover that in the coming sections.
With such drop problems infecting some of the best receivers in this class, those who make clean catches deserve recognition. Rashard Higgins has some of the best hands in this class on film, and recorded the second lowest drop rate (2.0). Keyarris Garrett is not a perfect player, but has no drop problems in his game. Doctson, Carroo and Sterling Shepard are the shining group of top-level prospects that don’t let drops creep onto their tape.
With that in mind, it should only reinforce just how impressive Josh Docton’s route rate stats are. He clocked in just behind Coleman with a target on 41.6 percent of his 209 routes, and a catch on 31.1 percent, which was more than his counterpart. Not many more receivers simply dominated their team’s offensive share like Doctson did this year.
Charon Peake was not a major factor in Clemson’s offense, as he was targeted on just 25.5 percent of his 145 routes. Peake’s size and 40-yard dash performance at the NFL Scouting Combine at least raise the question of whether he was underutilized.
Two marketshare darlings, Leonte Carroo and Roger Lewis, clocked in with target-per-route rates a bit lower than expected. Carroo’s was at least in line with the average but Lewis’ low number raises questions.
Three receivers, De’Runnya Wilson, Aaron Burbidge and Laquon Treadwell held target-per-route rates above the prospect average, but catch-per-route rates lower than the average. It’s fair to wonder if their college teams asked too much of Wilson and Burbidge. Treadwell’s appearance with these two is surprising, but his inefficient production profile is a big reason why some can’t get on board with him as a top-level prospect.
My readers should know my strong feelings on drops as a part of a wide receiver’s evaluation. However, this class has a ton of players that displayed drop issues in college, and it starts at the very top. Corey Coleman (8.6) and Laquon Treadwell (9.5) showed some lapses in hauling in clean catches. Will Fuller is known for his flashy speed, but his drop issues are real with a 9.1 rate. Southern Mississippi’s Michael Thomas leads the group with an 11.3 drop rate, perhaps contributing to his curious combine snub. As always, with these players and their peers, the evaluation will hang more on whether they have trump cards, or other facets of their games that make the drops worth living with. We’ll discover that in the coming sections.
With such drop problems infecting some of the best receivers in this class, those who make clean catches deserve recognition. Rashard Higgins has some of the best hands in this class on film, and recorded the second lowest drop rate (2.0). Keyarris Garrett is not a perfect player, but has no drop problems in his game. Doctson, Carroo and Sterling Shepard are the shining group of top-level prospects that don’t let drops creep onto their tape.
Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC)
Sterling Shepard simply broke the system with an 82.8 percent success rate against man coverage, and 91.1 percent against press. Question his size, or a future as “just” a slot receiver, but that is a rare ability to get open. Over a full Reception Perception sample, Shepard posted SRVC numbers akin to that of some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. His advanced and nuanced route-running combined with tangible athletic gifts should make him a lock for a top-three ranking at his position.
Since the season ended, it seemed that all the buzz around Ole Miss star Laquon Treadwell was negative, especially in regards to his speed and separation ability. Those issues just did not show up in his Reception Perception sample on a consistent route-to-route basis. Treadwell posted the fourth highest SRVC against man, and finished above average in all categories. He did all this in the best defensive conference in college football, something many of his peers here cannot stake claim to. Treadwell is a better route runner and technician than given credit for, and these numbers don’t paint any concerns about him separating from NFL corners.
Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman also cement their status as top prospects in this draft with this metric. Coleman’s 80 percent SRVC against zone illustrate a positive attribute in his scouting report that rarely gets recognized. Baylor asks their receivers to read much of the coverage to the same degree their quarterbacks do. The draft community undersells Coleman for his intelligence and timing as a player. Doctson continues to impress, finishing top-three in SRVC against man, zone and press.
You would like to see Leonte Carroo with a better than average SRVC score against man coverage, considering the buzz he gets from the draft community. However, don’t get too hung up on that one score. Carroo was also a top-five performer against press coverage, and earns an easy release off the line of scrimmage. If he transfers some of that strong work to the entirety of his routes, he could be a truly dangerous threat at the NFL level.
While he carried a ton of buzz throughout his college career, and was highly productive on a poor offense, the weaknesses in Tyler Boyd’s game are deafening. The Pitt star finished with the second lowest SRVC against man and press, and the worst mark against zone. To his credit, Boyd showed some “old man game” in the way he uses savvy to fool inferior cornerbacks at the college level. However, please remember those came in mere flashes. On a consistent route-to-route basis, Boyd didn't have the athleticism or consistent technique to separate in 2015. These numbers should cast major doubt on his ability to be a top-two option in a passing game, and his chances to function outside of a super specific role.
Older, and oft-injured Georgia receiver, Malcolm Mitchell opened up some eyes with a strong performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. The truth is, Mitchell put up some great tape during the 2015 season. There was some inconsistency in his game, but his good Reception Perception performances were simply dominant in terms of disciplined route-running and earning separation. It all leveled out for a top-five SRVC score against man in this class, with above average marks against zone and press. Mitchell needs to be right at the top of the potential late round sleepers list, especially for teams that value a quick passing game. He’s another prospect that forces us to be honest with his strong Reception Perception numbers when placing him in prospect rankings.
With tremendous speed, Will Fuller holds place in some evaluators’ top-five rankings. However, with the lowest score against press coverage among charted prospects, perhaps we have reason to question whether that is founded. Fuller needs to get more creative and advanced off the line of scrimmage if he wants to threaten defenses deep in the NFL on a regular basis.
Another concerning mark against Pharoh Cooper’s ability to be more than a splash player at the next level; he finished with the worst SRVC score against man. Cooper has plenty of positive attributes, but even as a full-time slot receiver, he needs to improve as a route runner to earn regular separation. His class average score against zone coverage is a nice signal that he can function in the short areas of the field well enough to find a home as a specialized weapon who wins after the catch. He needs the right team to do it, but Cooper could pile up highlights in that role.
The Ohio State offense was littered with NFL prospects, and as such, top receiver Michael Thomas often gets dinged for his production. However, his Reception Perception reveals that he’s a talented player with the ability to consistently work open from all forms of coverage. Thomas is a big receiver, who shows an understanding of how to run routes, and the timing aspect of the game we typically see from smaller, more agile prospects. He looks like an ideal No. 2 and complimentary receiver in the NFL.
The “other” Michael Thomas was just as impressive as his counterpart. He scored above average in all aspects of SRVC, with a superior score against press and zone defense. His lack of a combine invite becomes all the more confusing when his Reception Perception illuminates that this is, in fact, a prospect with a legitimate NFL future.
The scores of popular later round sleepers, Aaron Burbidge and Roger Lewis, bring into question whether these two can succeed outside specialized roles. Both players were unable to defeat coverage on a regular basis, despite being the top receivers on their offenses.
Since the season ended, it seemed that all the buzz around Ole Miss star Laquon Treadwell was negative, especially in regards to his speed and separation ability. Those issues just did not show up in his Reception Perception sample on a consistent route-to-route basis. Treadwell posted the fourth highest SRVC against man, and finished above average in all categories. He did all this in the best defensive conference in college football, something many of his peers here cannot stake claim to. Treadwell is a better route runner and technician than given credit for, and these numbers don’t paint any concerns about him separating from NFL corners.
Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman also cement their status as top prospects in this draft with this metric. Coleman’s 80 percent SRVC against zone illustrate a positive attribute in his scouting report that rarely gets recognized. Baylor asks their receivers to read much of the coverage to the same degree their quarterbacks do. The draft community undersells Coleman for his intelligence and timing as a player. Doctson continues to impress, finishing top-three in SRVC against man, zone and press.
You would like to see Leonte Carroo with a better than average SRVC score against man coverage, considering the buzz he gets from the draft community. However, don’t get too hung up on that one score. Carroo was also a top-five performer against press coverage, and earns an easy release off the line of scrimmage. If he transfers some of that strong work to the entirety of his routes, he could be a truly dangerous threat at the NFL level.
While he carried a ton of buzz throughout his college career, and was highly productive on a poor offense, the weaknesses in Tyler Boyd’s game are deafening. The Pitt star finished with the second lowest SRVC against man and press, and the worst mark against zone. To his credit, Boyd showed some “old man game” in the way he uses savvy to fool inferior cornerbacks at the college level. However, please remember those came in mere flashes. On a consistent route-to-route basis, Boyd didn't have the athleticism or consistent technique to separate in 2015. These numbers should cast major doubt on his ability to be a top-two option in a passing game, and his chances to function outside of a super specific role.
Older, and oft-injured Georgia receiver, Malcolm Mitchell opened up some eyes with a strong performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. The truth is, Mitchell put up some great tape during the 2015 season. There was some inconsistency in his game, but his good Reception Perception performances were simply dominant in terms of disciplined route-running and earning separation. It all leveled out for a top-five SRVC score against man in this class, with above average marks against zone and press. Mitchell needs to be right at the top of the potential late round sleepers list, especially for teams that value a quick passing game. He’s another prospect that forces us to be honest with his strong Reception Perception numbers when placing him in prospect rankings.
With tremendous speed, Will Fuller holds place in some evaluators’ top-five rankings. However, with the lowest score against press coverage among charted prospects, perhaps we have reason to question whether that is founded. Fuller needs to get more creative and advanced off the line of scrimmage if he wants to threaten defenses deep in the NFL on a regular basis.
Another concerning mark against Pharoh Cooper’s ability to be more than a splash player at the next level; he finished with the worst SRVC score against man. Cooper has plenty of positive attributes, but even as a full-time slot receiver, he needs to improve as a route runner to earn regular separation. His class average score against zone coverage is a nice signal that he can function in the short areas of the field well enough to find a home as a specialized weapon who wins after the catch. He needs the right team to do it, but Cooper could pile up highlights in that role.
The Ohio State offense was littered with NFL prospects, and as such, top receiver Michael Thomas often gets dinged for his production. However, his Reception Perception reveals that he’s a talented player with the ability to consistently work open from all forms of coverage. Thomas is a big receiver, who shows an understanding of how to run routes, and the timing aspect of the game we typically see from smaller, more agile prospects. He looks like an ideal No. 2 and complimentary receiver in the NFL.
The “other” Michael Thomas was just as impressive as his counterpart. He scored above average in all aspects of SRVC, with a superior score against press and zone defense. His lack of a combine invite becomes all the more confusing when his Reception Perception illuminates that this is, in fact, a prospect with a legitimate NFL future.
The scores of popular later round sleepers, Aaron Burbidge and Roger Lewis, bring into question whether these two can succeed outside specialized roles. Both players were unable to defeat coverage on a regular basis, despite being the top receivers on their offenses.
Contested Catch Conversion Rate
No one should be surprised to see Josh Doctson cement his status as the best receiver playing the ball in the air in this class. Doctson lapped the field with his peers, recording an 85 percent contested catch conversion rate on 20 attempts. His elite-level ball skills in tight traffic present him with one of the safest floors among the receiver prospects.
Laquon Treadwell came in second with a 75 percent contested catch conversion rate. While his Success Rate Versus Coverage scores should put the bed the idea that he can’t separate consistently, this at least reminds us that he has excellent strength and concentration to bring in passes even when he's not “open”.
While his SRVC scores paint him as an elite level prospect, Sterling Shepard comes up a bit short in his contested catch marks. He finished just under the average with a 55.6 conversion rate. As a disclaimer, he did win some truly impressive balls in tight coverage, and has that ability in his arsenal, but his smaller frame and shorter arms may keep him from being a true star in this area. Shepard has the explosive attributes, and pristine route running to be a small receiver that is his team’s No. 1 threat, but he’ll need to improve on winning contested catches consistently if he truly wants to follow in the Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown archetype.
Tyler Boyd often draws praise for his work at the catch point. Yet, a mere 50 percent conversion rate this season paints the real picture that he did regress in this department in his final season at Pittsburgh. Overall, this is still a strength of Boyd’s game, but he needed an elite level mark here to erase the concerns painted by his ghastly SRVC scores.
Contested catches are another area where Braxton Miller is a complete unknown. Running so many routes from the slot into open space, or out of the backfield, Miller never went up for a contested catch in tight traffic during his Reception Perception sample.
If you’re looking for arbitrage plays within this draft class, there are two that reveal themselves here with their 72.7 conversion rates. Cal’s Kenny Lawler is quietly one of the best players at winning contested catches, and carries a similar frame to Josh Doctson. Keyarris Garret is just as strong at playing in tight coverage at the catch point, and comes with a similar build to Laquon Treadwell. Teams that miss out on the duo in the first round should consider these potential discounted versions later on in the draft.
Here’s just a reminder that having size is just one ingredient to being a great player in contested situations. De’Runnya Wilson, all 6’5 and 224 pounds of him, finished with a 27.3 percent contested catch conversion rate. It was clearly the worst score of the class.
Laquon Treadwell came in second with a 75 percent contested catch conversion rate. While his Success Rate Versus Coverage scores should put the bed the idea that he can’t separate consistently, this at least reminds us that he has excellent strength and concentration to bring in passes even when he's not “open”.
While his SRVC scores paint him as an elite level prospect, Sterling Shepard comes up a bit short in his contested catch marks. He finished just under the average with a 55.6 conversion rate. As a disclaimer, he did win some truly impressive balls in tight coverage, and has that ability in his arsenal, but his smaller frame and shorter arms may keep him from being a true star in this area. Shepard has the explosive attributes, and pristine route running to be a small receiver that is his team’s No. 1 threat, but he’ll need to improve on winning contested catches consistently if he truly wants to follow in the Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown archetype.
Tyler Boyd often draws praise for his work at the catch point. Yet, a mere 50 percent conversion rate this season paints the real picture that he did regress in this department in his final season at Pittsburgh. Overall, this is still a strength of Boyd’s game, but he needed an elite level mark here to erase the concerns painted by his ghastly SRVC scores.
Contested catches are another area where Braxton Miller is a complete unknown. Running so many routes from the slot into open space, or out of the backfield, Miller never went up for a contested catch in tight traffic during his Reception Perception sample.
If you’re looking for arbitrage plays within this draft class, there are two that reveal themselves here with their 72.7 conversion rates. Cal’s Kenny Lawler is quietly one of the best players at winning contested catches, and carries a similar frame to Josh Doctson. Keyarris Garret is just as strong at playing in tight coverage at the catch point, and comes with a similar build to Laquon Treadwell. Teams that miss out on the duo in the first round should consider these potential discounted versions later on in the draft.
Here’s just a reminder that having size is just one ingredient to being a great player in contested situations. De’Runnya Wilson, all 6’5 and 224 pounds of him, finished with a 27.3 percent contested catch conversion rate. It was clearly the worst score of the class.
Route percentage
Roger Lewis offered up one of the most unbalanced route trees ever charted for Reception Perception. The curl and the nine route accounted for 66.5 percent of his 230 routes charted. Considering he still posted below average SRVC scores, that’s a concerning aspect about his transition to the next level.
So far, we don't have much in the way of a positive Reception Perception metric to hold of Charone Peake, but we may stumble on the reason for that here. Peake ran a nine-route on 31 percent of his sampled patterns, the second highest rate in the class. He profiles as more of a strong underneath and possession option, begging the question of whether his NFL team will make better use of him than Clemson did.
You’ll hear plenty of observers question Josh Doctson’s experience as a route runner. That is falling into an easy fallacy based on the conference he played in, and the TCU offense. Doctson posted the second highest percentage of comeback routes run, and only had a skewed rate toward vertical routes. Doctson tried his hand at plenty of routes on the tree, and won’t be overwhelmed by an NFL playbook.
Sterling Shepard and Tajae Sharpe are the most experienced route runners in this class. Those two were the only receivers to chart out above the average at running all three of outs, comebacks and flats. The balance of their route assignments will help them get on the field early, and endear themselves to their NFL coaches.
Leonte Carroo also showed good balance in his route tree, even if his slant route percentage was his clear highest mark. He ran outs and corner routes frequently, with a sprinkling of other out-breaking routes. Carroo can threaten a defense at every level of the field, and has great experience as a route runner.
Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell and Keyarris Garrett charted out with route trees heavily skewed toward screens, slants, curls or nine-routes. Now, that’s not worth holding against them as prospects, considering that they all posted above average SRVC scores in prior sections. You can only scout a player based on what they were asked to do in college. All three have the athleticism to carve out high-value roles on just those limited routes in the NFL, while Mitchell and Coleman are already ahead of the game from a timing perspective.
Lets hope Reception Perception officially ends the fallacy that you cannot judge Tyler Boyd off his 2015 film. Pittsburgh did alter his assignments a bit to get the ball in his hands as a rusher more, but if you watch on a route-to-route basis, you can see him running plenty of traditional plays. Boyd ran posts, corners, outs, comebacks and flats at an average or above average rate compared to his peers. Most of those routes are not what you’d imagine a gadget player getting work on.
So far, we don't have much in the way of a positive Reception Perception metric to hold of Charone Peake, but we may stumble on the reason for that here. Peake ran a nine-route on 31 percent of his sampled patterns, the second highest rate in the class. He profiles as more of a strong underneath and possession option, begging the question of whether his NFL team will make better use of him than Clemson did.
You’ll hear plenty of observers question Josh Doctson’s experience as a route runner. That is falling into an easy fallacy based on the conference he played in, and the TCU offense. Doctson posted the second highest percentage of comeback routes run, and only had a skewed rate toward vertical routes. Doctson tried his hand at plenty of routes on the tree, and won’t be overwhelmed by an NFL playbook.
Sterling Shepard and Tajae Sharpe are the most experienced route runners in this class. Those two were the only receivers to chart out above the average at running all three of outs, comebacks and flats. The balance of their route assignments will help them get on the field early, and endear themselves to their NFL coaches.
Leonte Carroo also showed good balance in his route tree, even if his slant route percentage was his clear highest mark. He ran outs and corner routes frequently, with a sprinkling of other out-breaking routes. Carroo can threaten a defense at every level of the field, and has great experience as a route runner.
Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell and Keyarris Garrett charted out with route trees heavily skewed toward screens, slants, curls or nine-routes. Now, that’s not worth holding against them as prospects, considering that they all posted above average SRVC scores in prior sections. You can only scout a player based on what they were asked to do in college. All three have the athleticism to carve out high-value roles on just those limited routes in the NFL, while Mitchell and Coleman are already ahead of the game from a timing perspective.
Lets hope Reception Perception officially ends the fallacy that you cannot judge Tyler Boyd off his 2015 film. Pittsburgh did alter his assignments a bit to get the ball in his hands as a rusher more, but if you watch on a route-to-route basis, you can see him running plenty of traditional plays. Boyd ran posts, corners, outs, comebacks and flats at an average or above average rate compared to his peers. Most of those routes are not what you’d imagine a gadget player getting work on.
SRVC and PTS by Route
In a recurring theme, Josh Doctson once again demands our praise. He was the only prospect to post an above average SRVC score on every single route on the tree. A smooth operator with easy separation ability, Doctson should have no problem developing into a pristine route runner at the next level. His Reception Perception results are eerily similar to Allen Robinson’s rookie season numbers, which led to his 2015 breakout.
Tyler Boyd’s 48 percent SRVC on slant routes was far and away the lowest mark among his peers. It’s a frighteningly low score, and puts an exclamation point on his troubles consistently separating. Make no mistake, this will haunt him as he transitions to the next level. However, there’s positivity to mine in his 81.8 percent SRVC on “other” routes. Boyd can win when he’s able to use his nuance to freelance on improvisational routes, or play through traffic to set up for a contested catch. This will help him carve out a role as a third down converting NFL contributor.
A combine disappointment, it’s hard to get too down on Rashard Higgins in light of his Reception Perception results. He’s a tremendous underneath route runner, posting the second-best SRVC score on slants in the class, and above average marks on curls, digs and flats. Additionally, he showed himself as a player in the vertical game with a 69 percent SRVC score on nine-routes.
Living up to his reputation as a vertical threat, Will Fuller scored an above average 62.2 percent SRVC on nine routes. However, he compliments that with solid scores on corners, outs and comebacks. Kenny Stills is another NFL deep threat who is a limited asset, but ran good out-breaking routes of this variety as a player with the New Orleans Saints. Fuller looks able to carve out that sort of NFL role, even if he needs work in other areas to develop into anything more.
Aaron Burbidge did not score an above average SRVC on any route. There is likely a place for him as a tough competitor or depth receiver, but these numbers don’t paint a projection of a future NFL regular contributor.
Ohio State’s Michael Thomas is not known for his ability as a big play threat, but posted the best SRVC score on nine-routes. Just another reminder that winning in the deep game is about far more than just pure speed, which is not a strength of Thomas’. The former Buckeye does use plenty of subtle deception moves in his routes, which earn him regular separation at all areas of the field.
For a player with a reputation as deep threat, Roger Lewis’ poor athletic testing at the combine, combined with a merely average SRVC score on nine routes is particularly troubling.
Kenny Lawler is far from an overwhelming athlete, but he shows great discipline in his routes. He posted the third best SRVC score on curl routes, and an above average mark on posts. Combined with his ability in contested situations, he profiles as a player who could fall along the Michael Crabtree archetype.
Laquon Treadwell was a top performer on slant routes, and scored above average on both curls and posts. Those are the money routes for NFL X-receivers, and Treadwell is still the split-end prospect with the highest potential in this class. While he did not blow away the competition, Treadwell did score above average on vertical nine routes. Again, his Reception Perception continues to ease concerns that Treadwell lacks the speed to be a No. 1 receiver at the NFL level.
Despite his limited route tree, Corey Coleman was the top performer on slants, and posted good scores on nine routes and curls, the patterns he ran so often. The good far outweighs the bad with Coleman, who if he hones his potential, could be one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL.
Sterling Shepard fell just short of Doctson, scoring a below average SRVC on just one route on the tree. Those worried about Shepard’s speed or ability to win against outside corners in the NFL should be encouraged by his 67.7 percent SRVC on nine routes, third highest in the class. With a strong showing at the NFL scouting combine, in conjunction with some of the best Reception Perception numbers around, we can least entertain the possibility of some high ceiling-level player comparisons along the small receiver archetype for Shepard.
We know Clemson asked Charone Peake to run a high amount of go routes, and yet that pattern held one of his lowest success rates. He posted pristine scores on posts, outs and an average number on slants. Peake has talent, and could end up a better pro than college player.
Braxton Miller showed the ability to run crisp slant routes underneath, and used his ability to read coverage and agility to get free down the field on corner routes. Again, there is plenty more work to do, as those were his only above average non-screen routes, but encouraging data points do exist in his transition.
Tyler Boyd’s 48 percent SRVC on slant routes was far and away the lowest mark among his peers. It’s a frighteningly low score, and puts an exclamation point on his troubles consistently separating. Make no mistake, this will haunt him as he transitions to the next level. However, there’s positivity to mine in his 81.8 percent SRVC on “other” routes. Boyd can win when he’s able to use his nuance to freelance on improvisational routes, or play through traffic to set up for a contested catch. This will help him carve out a role as a third down converting NFL contributor.
A combine disappointment, it’s hard to get too down on Rashard Higgins in light of his Reception Perception results. He’s a tremendous underneath route runner, posting the second-best SRVC score on slants in the class, and above average marks on curls, digs and flats. Additionally, he showed himself as a player in the vertical game with a 69 percent SRVC score on nine-routes.
Living up to his reputation as a vertical threat, Will Fuller scored an above average 62.2 percent SRVC on nine routes. However, he compliments that with solid scores on corners, outs and comebacks. Kenny Stills is another NFL deep threat who is a limited asset, but ran good out-breaking routes of this variety as a player with the New Orleans Saints. Fuller looks able to carve out that sort of NFL role, even if he needs work in other areas to develop into anything more.
Aaron Burbidge did not score an above average SRVC on any route. There is likely a place for him as a tough competitor or depth receiver, but these numbers don’t paint a projection of a future NFL regular contributor.
Ohio State’s Michael Thomas is not known for his ability as a big play threat, but posted the best SRVC score on nine-routes. Just another reminder that winning in the deep game is about far more than just pure speed, which is not a strength of Thomas’. The former Buckeye does use plenty of subtle deception moves in his routes, which earn him regular separation at all areas of the field.
For a player with a reputation as deep threat, Roger Lewis’ poor athletic testing at the combine, combined with a merely average SRVC score on nine routes is particularly troubling.
Kenny Lawler is far from an overwhelming athlete, but he shows great discipline in his routes. He posted the third best SRVC score on curl routes, and an above average mark on posts. Combined with his ability in contested situations, he profiles as a player who could fall along the Michael Crabtree archetype.
Laquon Treadwell was a top performer on slant routes, and scored above average on both curls and posts. Those are the money routes for NFL X-receivers, and Treadwell is still the split-end prospect with the highest potential in this class. While he did not blow away the competition, Treadwell did score above average on vertical nine routes. Again, his Reception Perception continues to ease concerns that Treadwell lacks the speed to be a No. 1 receiver at the NFL level.
Despite his limited route tree, Corey Coleman was the top performer on slants, and posted good scores on nine routes and curls, the patterns he ran so often. The good far outweighs the bad with Coleman, who if he hones his potential, could be one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL.
Sterling Shepard fell just short of Doctson, scoring a below average SRVC on just one route on the tree. Those worried about Shepard’s speed or ability to win against outside corners in the NFL should be encouraged by his 67.7 percent SRVC on nine routes, third highest in the class. With a strong showing at the NFL scouting combine, in conjunction with some of the best Reception Perception numbers around, we can least entertain the possibility of some high ceiling-level player comparisons along the small receiver archetype for Shepard.
We know Clemson asked Charone Peake to run a high amount of go routes, and yet that pattern held one of his lowest success rates. He posted pristine scores on posts, outs and an average number on slants. Peake has talent, and could end up a better pro than college player.
Braxton Miller showed the ability to run crisp slant routes underneath, and used his ability to read coverage and agility to get free down the field on corner routes. Again, there is plenty more work to do, as those were his only above average non-screen routes, but encouraging data points do exist in his transition.
"In space" and Tackle Breaking
No one should be surprised to see Corey Coleman was out “in space” than any other prospect in this class (19 percent of his routes). The uber athletic Coleman is one of the most dangerous players in the open field, and he compliments his physical gifts with a tough and aggressive mentality. Coleman broke multiple tackles at a higher rate than any other prospect.
Whether you question his speed or not, one area where Laquon Treadwell consistently gets underrated is his ability to earn yards after the catch. Treadwell has that powerful frame to simply barrel through defenders, but also the agile quickness to set them up and make them miss. Treadwell was “in space” on 12.8 percent of his routes, and broke at least one tackle on an above-average rate, with the second best score in breaking multiple tackle attempts.
Given that Keyarris Garrett also has that massive frame, it was perplexing to see him so regularly go down on first contact. Garrett was out “in space” on 15.8 percent of his routes, the second highest rate in the class, but was brought down on first contact on 69 percent of those attempts. Garrett has the athletic traits and size to be a real threat after the catch, but his NFL team will have to help him develop those into tangible skills.
We finally arrive at the one less-than stellar-mark in Josh Doctson’s scouting report. He was out “in space” on an above average percentage of his routes, but was dropped on fist contact 63 percent of the time. Doctson is more of a glider, than an aggressive attacker with the ball in his hands.
Florida was disappointed in the returns they got from Demarcus Robinson, but he does have ability. While his SRVC scores show he needs a ton of refinement and work, his “in space” metrics illuminate that he is a smooth athlete. He broke a tackle on 50 percent of his in space attempts. There might be a project worth developing in Robinson.
Sterling Shepard got dropped on first contact at an above average rate, and has some work to do in using his agility with better timing in the open field. He did not break one tackle at the class average rate, but finished above the charted average at breaking multiple tackles. Playing after the catch is not a death-nail weakness of Shepard’s, but it’s not yet one of his top strengths.
Southern Mississippi’s Michael Thomas puts a resounding exclamation point on the story told by his SRVC scores with strong ability after the catch. Considering all the slant routes he ran, it was encouraging that he broke a tackle at an above average rate on his “in space” attempts.
Leonte Carroo and Braxton Miller are agile athletes with the ability to make defenders miss in space. No one should be surprised that they scored above the class average at breaking tackles after the catch. Both will be dangerous threats with the ball in their hands, and Miller has the athletic traits to be truly special in that regard.
On the other hand, Kenny Lawler would not seem like the type of player who is dynamic after the catch. While not a Miller-like athlete, Lawler consistently makes the first defender miss with the ball in his hands, charting out with the highest one broken tackle rate among the charted prospects.
Speed is not just an asset in the deep game, and Will Fuller flashed the ability to use his after the catch. He was only out “in space” on 6.2 percent of his routes, but broke one or more tackle at an above average rate.
Rashard Higgins was Mr. Do it All for Colorado State, and that included working after the catch. He was out “in space” on 12.9 percent of his routes, and broke multiple tackles on 11.1 percent of his attempts. Combined with the rest of his Reception Perception results, it’s a fine reminder that this is just a truly solid football player. Higgins makes you be honest with what the tape shows, and is hard to leave out of the top-10 receiver prospects in this class.
Are you interested in learning more about Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar with upcoming publications, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
Whether you question his speed or not, one area where Laquon Treadwell consistently gets underrated is his ability to earn yards after the catch. Treadwell has that powerful frame to simply barrel through defenders, but also the agile quickness to set them up and make them miss. Treadwell was “in space” on 12.8 percent of his routes, and broke at least one tackle on an above-average rate, with the second best score in breaking multiple tackle attempts.
Given that Keyarris Garrett also has that massive frame, it was perplexing to see him so regularly go down on first contact. Garrett was out “in space” on 15.8 percent of his routes, the second highest rate in the class, but was brought down on first contact on 69 percent of those attempts. Garrett has the athletic traits and size to be a real threat after the catch, but his NFL team will have to help him develop those into tangible skills.
We finally arrive at the one less-than stellar-mark in Josh Doctson’s scouting report. He was out “in space” on an above average percentage of his routes, but was dropped on fist contact 63 percent of the time. Doctson is more of a glider, than an aggressive attacker with the ball in his hands.
Florida was disappointed in the returns they got from Demarcus Robinson, but he does have ability. While his SRVC scores show he needs a ton of refinement and work, his “in space” metrics illuminate that he is a smooth athlete. He broke a tackle on 50 percent of his in space attempts. There might be a project worth developing in Robinson.
Sterling Shepard got dropped on first contact at an above average rate, and has some work to do in using his agility with better timing in the open field. He did not break one tackle at the class average rate, but finished above the charted average at breaking multiple tackles. Playing after the catch is not a death-nail weakness of Shepard’s, but it’s not yet one of his top strengths.
Southern Mississippi’s Michael Thomas puts a resounding exclamation point on the story told by his SRVC scores with strong ability after the catch. Considering all the slant routes he ran, it was encouraging that he broke a tackle at an above average rate on his “in space” attempts.
Leonte Carroo and Braxton Miller are agile athletes with the ability to make defenders miss in space. No one should be surprised that they scored above the class average at breaking tackles after the catch. Both will be dangerous threats with the ball in their hands, and Miller has the athletic traits to be truly special in that regard.
On the other hand, Kenny Lawler would not seem like the type of player who is dynamic after the catch. While not a Miller-like athlete, Lawler consistently makes the first defender miss with the ball in his hands, charting out with the highest one broken tackle rate among the charted prospects.
Speed is not just an asset in the deep game, and Will Fuller flashed the ability to use his after the catch. He was only out “in space” on 6.2 percent of his routes, but broke one or more tackle at an above average rate.
Rashard Higgins was Mr. Do it All for Colorado State, and that included working after the catch. He was out “in space” on 12.9 percent of his routes, and broke multiple tackles on 11.1 percent of his attempts. Combined with the rest of his Reception Perception results, it’s a fine reminder that this is just a truly solid football player. Higgins makes you be honest with what the tape shows, and is hard to leave out of the top-10 receiver prospects in this class.
Are you interested in learning more about Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar with upcoming publications, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
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