Playoffs: Conference Championship Round NFL Preview

The Five Major Story Lines
  1. It might the last Brady vs. Manning game in the postseason ever. Yes it is a storyline that is beat to death. However, it does not change how fortunate this generation is to witness two of the best quarterbacks ever go head to head with so much on the line. 
  2.  Is LeGarrette Blount going to be the focal point of the offense for another week? Almost everyone is rightly assuming that the Patriots will just try to pound the Broncos defense with the run. After it was so effective against the Colts, why not? However, isn’t it just like the Patriots to do the exact opposite of what everyone expects. With the injuries to Denver’s secondary and the strength of their defensive line, it is a strategy that makes sense. 
  3. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson meet again. These two young quarterbacks will always be compared. They are both amazing talents, and in the same division. A lot will be made of who wins this game, but neither is playing particularly well right now. The team whose quarterback rises to the occasion will likely emerge as the winner in the NFC. 
  4. Coaching matters. It is no coincidence that each team playing this weekend has an elite coach. Bill Belichick is a Hall of Famer, and Jim Harbaugh might be second best in the league right now. John Fox and Pete Carroll have changed their strategies and excelled in their new homes. 
  5. The x-factors will emerge. The conference championship weekend features easily the four best teams in the NFL. With such strong play across the board, little known players will have to emerge on the winning teams. Look for non-household names to make a few splash plays that turn the game. 

The Two Best Matchups to Watch in Each Game
1)    LeGarrette Blount vs. Terrance Knighton, Sylvester Williams, and Malik Jackson
  • No running back has put up more impressive numbers than LeGarrette Blount has recently. Last week, the Patriots offensive line blasted huge holes open, and Blount gashed the Colts defense. He is not particularly dynamic, but Blount can get the job done when there is good blocking. After scoring four touchdowns last week, he may find things a little less wide open against the Broncos. Terrance Knighton has exceled at stuffing the run all season, while the rookie Sylvester Williams has come on strong late in the season. Malik Jackson also contributes, though he does his best work as a pass rusher. The Broncos defensive tackles did a phenomenal job of stopping a similar downhill running attack against the Chargers last week:
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  • The play call is a power run down the throat of the defense. The Chargers offensive line does a very good job of opening up a hole for Mathews here. The Broncos come out with a 3-4 look on defense. Knighton plays the nose tackle position, with Williams and Jeremy Mincey as the five-techniques. A Chargers’ lineman blocks off each one of. The center even gets to the second level to seal a linebacker:
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  • With the only free linebacker headed in the wrong direction—following the left tackle who is kicking out—a hole has been formed for Mathews to hit. Luckily for the Broncos, their big men anchor very well. Knighton fills the hole by getting off the block and going to the ground in front of Mathews. Williams pushes the guard aside and makes the stop on the running back for a short gain. 
  • The Broncos defensive tackles are a very strong unit. Though the Patriots have a very good offensive line to combat them. As the two strengths go head to head, it will be interesting to see which unit rises to the top. LeGarrette Blount is unlikely to dominate as he did last week. 
2)    Broncos cornerbacks vs. Julian Edelman
  • Julian Edelman has put together a dominant season as Tom Brady’s top target. Edelman has given the Patriots everything Wes Welker did and then some. The Broncos used to have the perfect defender to stop him in Chris Harris. Unfortunately, the slot corner is done for the season with a major injury. Without the help of Harris, it is hard to imagine the Broncos preventing the slot receiver from sustaining his great play from last week:
  • The Patriots bring Julian Edelman in motion to get him into the slot. He finds more favorable match ups here. The Colts cornerback shadows Edelman giving Brady a strong indication the defense is in man coverage. Edelman runs a slant route and exploits two crucial mistakes from the corner:
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  • Vontae Davis errs in allowing the Patriots receiver to get a clean release. With Edelman coming free off the line, he is afforded a ton of space to work with. The Colts defenders also fail to bring him down on their first tackle attempts. Edelman is very instinctive after the catch and makes them pay. A pass that never should have been completed goes for over twenty yards.
  • The Broncos cornerback situation does not inspire a lot of confidence. Quentin Jammer had a nightmare game in relief of Chris Harris last week. A hobbled Champ Bailey has been on a limited snap count this season and Keyvon Webster has had his share of gaffes. Bailey and Jammer are the two most likely to face Julian Edelman in the slot. Those two veterans will need to be in A+ form. 

3)    Colin Kaepernick vs. Seahawks secondary
  • Kaepernick had some great moments against Carolina, but he is still a very limited quarterback. His failure to get off his first read is still very troubling. The Panthers failed to exploit that mistake at a very crucial time in last week’s game:
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  • Veteran safety Quintin Mikel does an exceptional job pre-snap and before the throw. He knows Kaepernick is strictly a one read quarterback. When the quarterback locks into Michael Crabtree, Mikel makes a break on the pass:
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  • Mikel has great timing and should have a pick-six. However, he drops the interception seemingly in anticipation of scoring. A potential game changing play turns into a missed opportunity.
  • Carolina has a great defense, but their weakness lies in the secondary, the area where Seattle is strongest. If Kaepernick falls into bad habits such as this, Richard Sherman and company will certainly make him pay. With weapons that far outweigh what Russell Wilson has, the 49ers should be able to outscore the Seahawks. They will need their quarterback to play great, though.
4)    Marshawn Lynch vs. 49ers front seven
  • Lynch had an outstanding game against the Saints, and he did it all by his own. The Seahawks line was very poor and was blown off the ball by Cam Jordan and the Saints defense with great frequency. It did not matter to Lynch. He used his great vision, speed, and ability to break tackles to gash the defense for plays like this his fourth quarter touchdown run: 
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  • One this run, Lynch bounces to the outside to score from 31 yards out. Looking at the play in real speed, it is hard to tell just how poor the blocking was. However, the Saints really had the play well defended:
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  • The camera is in the way on the left image, but there is a Saints defender right where the hole is supposed to be. Moments later, three defenders are about to close in on Lynch. The dynamic runner cuts away from the Saints players, and head to the outside. His great speed and cutting ability allow Lynch to easily elude an out of position Malcolm Jenkins and score a touchdown. 
  • Not only did his running create big plays, but it also let him get something out of noting. Plays that should have been stopped in the backfield, turned into five yard gains:
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  • Lynch made a habit of slipping through defenders to get as much as possible out of each play. His dynamite running helped sustain the Seahawks offense. With the pass offense sputtering amid a Russell Wilson funk and Percy Harvin’s continued absence, he may be their only hope. 

My meaningless picks that you don’t care about:
  • Seahawks
  • Broncos
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