Week Eight NFL Picks (2013)

By: Matt Harmon

Thursday Night Game:

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
Matchup to Watch: Gerald McCoy vs. Ryan Kalil

• This matchup contains two Pro-Bowl caliber players who arguably have played a notch below their previous standards. Kalil has been noticeably beaten a few times on film and McCoy is not dominating the line of scrimmage in the same manner he did last year. Gerald McCoy is a classic three-technique tackle so we can espect him to try to shoot gaps between Kalil and one of Carolina’s average pair of guards. If Kalil cannot handle McCoy’s inside agility, Carolina could struggle to run the ball, and more importantly Cam Newton could struggle. Cam has been on a tear the past two weeks putting up the highest passer ratings of his career, but all you have to do is watch his tape to know he struggles when teams can put pressure right in his face. McCoy’s ability to win this matchup could be the difference the Bucs need to grab their first win.

My Pick: Panthers

• Even though the Panthers have been red hot the past two weeks, most of the national media seems to be in their corner, and it seems that Ron Rivera may have finally turned the corner as a head coach, I am still hesitant to trust them. It seems just when everyone else starts to buy into this type of team, they let you down with a loss to an inferior team like the Buccaneers. That being said, how can anyone possibly pick the Bucs here? The sinking Greg Schiano ship seems to only dive further each and every week and this team inches closer to quiting on their coach with each passing loss. Mike Glennon has been surprisingly competent, but with Doug Martin out of the picture, the Panthers will be free to back off the line of scrimmage a little and put more bodies in coverage. Not to mention, Glennon has not faced a defense as good as this Panthers unit, and he could be in for a struggle on a short week. If the Bucs would put Revis on an island with Steve Smith they may have an advantage, but they seem too stubborn to consider that. Despite a possible trap game, expect the Cam Newton and the Panthers to continue to roll. 

Sunday Games:

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7)
Matchup to Watch: Jaguars receivers vs. 49ers cornerbacks

• Receivers Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon are easily the strength of this Jags team, and even converted quarterback from Liberty University, Mike Brown, had a big game last week. The 49ers cornerbacks are the weakest position group on their defense and if the Jaguars have any hope to win this game, they will need Blackmon or Shorts to go off early. Shorts is more of the type to hurt the 49ers corners since he has more speed than Blackmon. 

My Pick: 49ers

• In the second installment of “The NFL Goes to London” there will not be any surprises, and the much superior 49ers will handle business. 

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3)
Matchup to Watch: George Selvie vs. Jason Fox

• Selvie has been a surprising force for the Cowboys while replacing Anthony Spencer at left end, and even stepped up his game last week with two sacks in DeMarcus Ware’s absence. With Ware set to miss another game, the visiting Cowboys will need Selvie at his best once again. He is the type of quick defensive end that usually excels in dome, on turf like the Lions play on. Jason Fox will likely see Selvie lined up over him on most occasions, and is the weakest member of an impressive Detroit offensive line. The Lions will need their right tackle’s best effort against the Cowboys on Sunday. 

My Pick: Lions                                            

• These two teams carry identical records, and share a lot of similarities; quarterbacks playing at the top of their game, dominant wide receivers, and defenses that are playing above expectations. However, the Lions have just a little more offensive firepower if Reggie Bush is playing in this game, though he did miss practice on Friday, and they are at home.
  

   

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
Matchup to Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Jason Peters

• Both of these players have been recovering from injuries in the early part of the season, and while JPP was finally beginning to round into form last week, Peters has been rock solid all season. With their defensive line depth compromised, the Giants have been lining Pierre-Paul up almost exclusively at right defensive end, and in this game he would be going against Peters all day. Watching these two All-Pros go at it should be fun, but it will also be interesting to monitor if the declining Justin Tuck can take advantage of struggling Eagles rookie right tackle, Lane Johnson. 

My Pick: Eagles

• The Eagles have not won at home in over a year, and they really need to snap that streak against the Giants this week. The Giants did not do much to inspire faith in them despite beating the Vikings on Monday night. Vick probably is not healthy, but he should still be enough of a difference maker for the Eagles to win, as long as their defense can contained the vaunted Special Agent Peyton Hillis offense.   

  


Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
Matchup to Watch: Josh Gordon vs. Chiefs cornerbacks

• Sean Smith and Brandon Flowers have been very good in press-man coverage this season and will need to bring their best against the rapidly ascending Josh Gordon. It will be interesting to see how the third quarterback change of the season affects Gordon, who was great with Brian Hoyer behind center and maintained his production with Weeden. The only problem is, unlike his predecessors, Jason Campbell has been very reluctant to pull the trigger on the deep ball throughout his career despite possessing the requisite arm strength. 

My Pick: Chiefs

• Even if the Browns defense recaptures its early season form and shuts down a simplistic Chiefs offense, it is hard to see a scenario in which a Jason Campbell led offense goes into Arrowhead Stadium and puts a number up on the Chiefs defense.  
  

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Matchup to Watch: Lamar Miller vs. Patriots front seven

• The Jets pounded Chris Ivory into the interior of the Patriots defense last week a whopping thirty four times. The Dolphins have either been uninterested in giving Miller a ton of carries or feel he does not deserve them yet. This could be the week they change that philosophy since the Patriots have suffered so many injuries to the middle of their defense. If Miller can show some of the explosiveness that many touted him for coming out of the University of Miami, they will not have to drop back to pass so many times, and maybe the Dolphins have a chance at an upset.

My Pick: Patriots  

• The Patriots certainly have some flaws right now; Brady is not playing great and their defense is banged up. However, the Dolphins 3-0 start feels like life times ago now that they have dropped their last three games, as Ryan Tannehill continues to take a beating. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East and they will show it at home this week.
  

  

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Matchup to Watch: Andy Dalton vs. Jets secondary

• Andy Dalton does not get a lot of good press around this website, but he has quietly strung together the two best games of his career over the last two weeks.  Dalton has spread the ball around economically while also mixing in throws to his favorite target, A.J. Green. For as good as their defense has been this season, the Jets secondary can be had. If Dalton can keep up his solid play the Bengals should be able to keep on rolling right past the Jets. A lot will rest on whether or not he gets too rattled by that ferocious front seven.

My Pick: Bengals

• There are certainly scenarios in which the Jets could come away with an upset win over the superior Bengals, and this should be a close came. In the end, the Bengals are a bit more well-rounded and they are at home. Not to mention, if everything stays on course, this should be a down week for the player that NFL.com’s Around the League Blogger, Dan Hanzus, has label the Geno-Coaster. 
  

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Matchup to Watch: Raiders cornerbacks vs. Antonio Brown

• Antonio Brown has flown under the radar, but the Steelers number one receiver is on pace for 125 receptions and over 1,400 yards. Brown is developing into a player that runs pristine routes and can do things with the ball in his hands. He is finally looking like a complete player the Steelers can lean on. The Raiders corners have played better than expected recently, but they will have their hands full with Brown.

My Pick: Steelers

• The Steelers have oddly had trouble with the Raiders the past few years, but coming off a two game winning streak, the Steelers should be able to handle the youthful Raiders.  
  

  

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)
Matchup to Watch: Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan vs. Broncos offensive tackles

• Chris Clark and the out of position Louis Vasquez struggles mightily protecting Peyton Manning against the Colts, and they go up against a pretty effective duo again this week. The pressure the Colts put on Manning was clearly the difference in that Sunday night game, and the Redskins surely took notice. The rest of the Redskins defense has no hope of containing the Broncos so they will need the absolute best out of these two players if they want to come out of Denver a 3-4 team. 

My Pick: Broncos

• The Broncos are probably itching to tear the Redskins depleted secondary apart after licking their own wounds for a week. The Redskins offense looks to be back on track and could put up a ton of points on Denver’s defense, but with the Broncos being at home and the mismatches they present Washington, they will win this game.
  

  

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
Matchup to Watch: Harry Douglas vs. Patrick Peterson

• Harry Douglas is the only wide receiver with any pedigree for the Falcons, yet somehow the Buccaneers let him get loose in their secondary throughout the first half of their loss to the Falcons last week. The Cardinals have to be smarter than that and hopefully will assign their shut down corner to stick on Douglas most of this game. Harry Douglas’ stats will come crashing back to Earth in this game.

My Pick: Cardinals

• The Falcons are probably the slightly better team, but they are going across country and do not really have the pass rush to take advantage of Arizona’s great weakness. Against this defense, Carson Palmer should have the time to get his play somewhat back on track. Also, Andre Ellington looks like he will get the start on Sunday with Rashard Mendenhall ailing, and he is ready to put on a show. He will be the difference for the Cardinals, even with Matt Ryan playing great football. 

  


Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
Matchup to Watch: Jarrett Boykin vs. Vikings corners

• Boykin came in with low expectations, but was a solid contributor for the Packers against the Browns last week. This game probably will not be all that close, so it will be fun to monitor Boykin’s performance to see if he is an up-and-comer or just a product of Aaron Rodgers. Boykin gets a pretty easy test going up against a really bad Vikings secondary. 

My Pick: Packers

• The Vikings have to go back to Christian Ponder due to a mysterious Josh Freeman concussion, and though he cannot be worse than Freeman was on Monday, it is hard to envision him suddenly turning his game around in time to beat the Packers in primetime. 
  

Monday Night Game:

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)
Matchup to Watch: Jake Long vs. Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril

• The Rams will be trotting out Kellen Clemens, and if they are going to at least get mediocre production from him, they will need their franchise left tackle at his absolute best. Clemons and the Seahawks pass rushers are a handful for the offensive lines they go against and if they can get to Clemens with ease, he does not stand much of a chance against the “Legion of Boom” secondary.  

My Pick: Seahawks 

• Everyone is leaving the Rams for dead, and they are pretty much waving the white flag by bringing in Brady Quinn at quarterback. Going against Seattle is not the recipe for successfully breaking in a backup quarterback. This will ne a long night for the Rams.    

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