Reception Perception: Jordy Nelson and Mastering the Little Things
By: Matt Harmon
June 18th, 2014
June 18th, 2014
The first installment of Reception Perception shows Jordy Nelson is the elite WR no one talks about (Image: AP)
Should the topic of best wide receivers in the NFL come up at a local gathering you attend, it’s unlikely anyone will mention Jordy Nelson. A.J. Green, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas will all be brought up as competitors to Calvin Johnson. Several players might be rattled off before someone asserts that the Packers’ receiver belongs, if anyone does at all. Omitting Nelson from this discussion is a glaring oversight.
Perhaps its because he plays with one of the game’s best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. Maybe it’s due to a rather slow start to his NFL career. Its possible Nelson doesn’t get his due because he isn’t an elite athlete, and doesn’t stuff a highlight reel. Could it be that he’s overlooked because he is a white receiver, and isn’t a shifty, Wes Welker like slot receiver? Unfortunately, that may play a role. Whatever the reason some haven’t caught on, there’s no getting around how good Jordy Nelson is.
Statistically, Nelson had one of his best seasons. His 85 receptions and 1,314 yards were career highs. The eight touchdowns were the second highest total he’s ever amassed. No one will scoff at those numbers, but Nelson still wasn’t in the top 10 of any basic statistical category.
Nelson’s numbers indicate he’s a very good starting receiver. Through the Reception Perception methodology, it becomes clear that Nelson is a top-7 player at the position.
Reception Perception provides an accurate picture of a receivers’ worth by assessing eight of their previous season’s games. Their four best statistical games and four least inspiring games are taken into account. Reception Perception charts every route, battles versus man and zone coverage, and where the catches happen. The process even takes into account relevant run blocks thrown by the receiver.
Reception Perception provides an accurate assessment of a receivers’ game and what they do best. Jordy Nelson’s data is an impressive compilation.
Game One: Week one against the San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 7 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD
Tha Packers began their season by losing to their arch rivals, the 49ers. It was not the note the team wished to start the season on. When you look closely, it was a very strong effort by one of their best players. The Packers used Jordy Nelson perfectly in the week one loss.
Here’s Jordy Nelson week one route tree chart:
Perhaps its because he plays with one of the game’s best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. Maybe it’s due to a rather slow start to his NFL career. Its possible Nelson doesn’t get his due because he isn’t an elite athlete, and doesn’t stuff a highlight reel. Could it be that he’s overlooked because he is a white receiver, and isn’t a shifty, Wes Welker like slot receiver? Unfortunately, that may play a role. Whatever the reason some haven’t caught on, there’s no getting around how good Jordy Nelson is.
Statistically, Nelson had one of his best seasons. His 85 receptions and 1,314 yards were career highs. The eight touchdowns were the second highest total he’s ever amassed. No one will scoff at those numbers, but Nelson still wasn’t in the top 10 of any basic statistical category.
Nelson’s numbers indicate he’s a very good starting receiver. Through the Reception Perception methodology, it becomes clear that Nelson is a top-7 player at the position.
Reception Perception provides an accurate picture of a receivers’ worth by assessing eight of their previous season’s games. Their four best statistical games and four least inspiring games are taken into account. Reception Perception charts every route, battles versus man and zone coverage, and where the catches happen. The process even takes into account relevant run blocks thrown by the receiver.
Reception Perception provides an accurate assessment of a receivers’ game and what they do best. Jordy Nelson’s data is an impressive compilation.
Game One: Week one against the San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 7 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD
Tha Packers began their season by losing to their arch rivals, the 49ers. It was not the note the team wished to start the season on. When you look closely, it was a very strong effort by one of their best players. The Packers used Jordy Nelson perfectly in the week one loss.
Here’s Jordy Nelson week one route tree chart:
It was only the Packers’ first game of the season, but Jordy Nelson’s week one route chart is a good representation of what he does well. Nelson ran a high percentage of routes that require hard breaks. He specializes in getting open on patterns such as the slant, post, curl and comeback. Nelson is a 4.5 40-yard dash receiver, but is quicker in and out of his breaks than he is fast.
That makes the strikingly high percentage (26.3%) of nine routes all the more interesting. Nelson does not possess elite deep speed. So why did Green Bay send him on so many go routes? This number reveals two themes that become prevalent throughout Nelson’s 2013 season.
While James Jones was solid, and Randall Cobb gets a lot of publicity, Jordy Nelson is the best Packers receiver. Opponents know this, and the team does as well. For this reason, the Packers wisely use him to clear out room for other players. Nelson routinely attracts double coverage, and the attention of safeties. This concept helps explain why 26.3% of Nelson’s routes in week one were nine routes. By sending Nelson deep, Mike McCarthy strategically took two defenders out of the play.
There’s another good reason to use Nelson in this way. He’s very good at getting results. Nelson is very skilled at handling the little things that a player needs to thrive on these routes. He’s excellent at working down the sideline. He relishes tight physical coverage, and has great body control and ball skills:
That makes the strikingly high percentage (26.3%) of nine routes all the more interesting. Nelson does not possess elite deep speed. So why did Green Bay send him on so many go routes? This number reveals two themes that become prevalent throughout Nelson’s 2013 season.
While James Jones was solid, and Randall Cobb gets a lot of publicity, Jordy Nelson is the best Packers receiver. Opponents know this, and the team does as well. For this reason, the Packers wisely use him to clear out room for other players. Nelson routinely attracts double coverage, and the attention of safeties. This concept helps explain why 26.3% of Nelson’s routes in week one were nine routes. By sending Nelson deep, Mike McCarthy strategically took two defenders out of the play.
There’s another good reason to use Nelson in this way. He’s very good at getting results. Nelson is very skilled at handling the little things that a player needs to thrive on these routes. He’s excellent at working down the sideline. He relishes tight physical coverage, and has great body control and ball skills:
On this play, Nelson embodies all those strengths. Nelson is assigned a deep comeback down the right sideline. First and foremost, he must defeat his defender. He does so twice. Not only does Nelson dispense of the cornerback’s press attempts, but he also sheds him again when their paths cross ten yards down the field. Even when space closes down on Nelson, he keeps his concentration and stays physical:
Nelson comes open, but never achieves wide separation from the grabby cornerback. However, his concentration in coverage and down the sideline allows him to make the catch. This might be where Nelson does his best work. And it was a prevalent sight during the 49ers game.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week one Reception Perception data:
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week one Reception Perception data:
Among all the games charted for Reception Perception, Jordy Nelson’s week one use may have been the most optimal. He’s a versatile receiver, but Nelson profiles best as a flanker or Z-receiver. That’s how he was used in week one.
The flanker is lined up off the line of scrimmage and on the outside. In week one, Nelson lined up behind the line of scrimmage 63.5% of the time. He took the majority of his snaps as the right outside receiver and was in the slot only 9.5% of the time. The results bore a great stat line, and his work graded out well in Reception Perception’s methodology.
Nelson was a targeted on 26.3% of his 38 routes, and caught passes on 18.4% of them. Those are high marks in a spread offense with a multitude of weapons. And there was room for more. Nelson had a positive success rate of 55% against man coverage, but a stellar 81.8% success rate against zone. Nelson routinely beat his man in week one, regardless of the assignment.
The Packers’ week one loss to the 49ers was an embodiment of Jordy Nelson’s strengths as a player. The receiver had some better games, but this one was a nice template for how he is best deployed.
Game Two: Week two against the Washington Redskins
Stats: 3 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs
The Packers defeated the Redskins 38-20 in week two. In reality the game was never that close. Green Bay jumped out to a massive early lead, and Washington amassed most of their points in garbage time. Jody Nelson had an efficient day—scoring on two of his three catches—but the onslaught buried even more excellent work by him.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week two route tree chart:
The flanker is lined up off the line of scrimmage and on the outside. In week one, Nelson lined up behind the line of scrimmage 63.5% of the time. He took the majority of his snaps as the right outside receiver and was in the slot only 9.5% of the time. The results bore a great stat line, and his work graded out well in Reception Perception’s methodology.
Nelson was a targeted on 26.3% of his 38 routes, and caught passes on 18.4% of them. Those are high marks in a spread offense with a multitude of weapons. And there was room for more. Nelson had a positive success rate of 55% against man coverage, but a stellar 81.8% success rate against zone. Nelson routinely beat his man in week one, regardless of the assignment.
The Packers’ week one loss to the 49ers was an embodiment of Jordy Nelson’s strengths as a player. The receiver had some better games, but this one was a nice template for how he is best deployed.
Game Two: Week two against the Washington Redskins
Stats: 3 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs
The Packers defeated the Redskins 38-20 in week two. In reality the game was never that close. Green Bay jumped out to a massive early lead, and Washington amassed most of their points in garbage time. Jody Nelson had an efficient day—scoring on two of his three catches—but the onslaught buried even more excellent work by him.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week two route tree chart:
The week-two route percentages came out quite similar to the week one chart. There is a bit more diversity, but the slant, post, curl and nine routes are still the most frequent. Nelson is still running the optimal routes for his skill-set in at this early stage of the season.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week two Reception Perception data:
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week two Reception Perception data:
The Packers continued to use Jordy Nelson in the flanker role in week two. He was behind the line of scrimmage for 72.1% of his snaps, and took most of the reps (52.9%) at the right receiver spot.
Nelson’s target rate per route fell from week one to week two. This time, he was only targeted on 12.2% of his routes, but did make good on 80% of his targets. In an offense like Green Bay’s sometimes there is inconsistency in the volume for each player. Against Washington, Randall Cobb (nine catches), Jermichael Finley (six catches) and James Jones (11 catches) all received more work.
Yet again, Reception Perception’s data shows that should take anything away from Jordy Nelson. On this day just about everyone ran free against the Redskins’ secondary. Nelson had exceptional success rates against both man (71.4%) and zone coverage (77.8%).
Nelson’s continued high success rates against zone reveal more about the veteran receiver. Nelson is a very intelligent player who has a great feel for and awareness for zone coverage:
Nelson’s target rate per route fell from week one to week two. This time, he was only targeted on 12.2% of his routes, but did make good on 80% of his targets. In an offense like Green Bay’s sometimes there is inconsistency in the volume for each player. Against Washington, Randall Cobb (nine catches), Jermichael Finley (six catches) and James Jones (11 catches) all received more work.
Yet again, Reception Perception’s data shows that should take anything away from Jordy Nelson. On this day just about everyone ran free against the Redskins’ secondary. Nelson had exceptional success rates against both man (71.4%) and zone coverage (77.8%).
Nelson’s continued high success rates against zone reveal more about the veteran receiver. Nelson is a very intelligent player who has a great feel for and awareness for zone coverage:
Nelson lines up as the right outside wide receiver, and runs a strong slant to the middle of the field. He correctly feels out that the defense is in zone coverage by reading DeAngelo Hall’s movement. He knows the exact moment to break his route infield. Nelson is able to quickly process and read coverage like an elite receiver should.
Next Nelson makes a subtle jump move to free himself from the interior zone defenders. While the player should impede his progress, the receiver keeps his focus and makes a timely cut. Nelson uses his mind and awareness to free himself from this zone defense. While he doesn’t receive the target, Nelson did about all he could to make himself a viable option.
Plays like this are what make the veteran receiver an excellent example to younger receivers. Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis would be wise to seek Nelson’s help in learning how to diagnose zone coverage in the pros.
It’s hard to gauge too much of a receiver’s worth during a blowout loss. Through Reception Perception, we’re still able to gauge just how well Nelson played during the week-two victory.
Game Three: Week eight against the Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 7 catches, 123 yards, 2 TDs
Jordy Nelson continued to make sweet music with Aaron Rodgers throughout the first half of the 2013 season. The star receiver only dropped below 60 receiving yards once during this period. Nelson’s dynamic start to the season culminated in a week eight explosion versus the division rival Vikings.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week eight route tree chart:
Next Nelson makes a subtle jump move to free himself from the interior zone defenders. While the player should impede his progress, the receiver keeps his focus and makes a timely cut. Nelson uses his mind and awareness to free himself from this zone defense. While he doesn’t receive the target, Nelson did about all he could to make himself a viable option.
Plays like this are what make the veteran receiver an excellent example to younger receivers. Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis would be wise to seek Nelson’s help in learning how to diagnose zone coverage in the pros.
It’s hard to gauge too much of a receiver’s worth during a blowout loss. Through Reception Perception, we’re still able to gauge just how well Nelson played during the week-two victory.
Game Three: Week eight against the Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 7 catches, 123 yards, 2 TDs
Jordy Nelson continued to make sweet music with Aaron Rodgers throughout the first half of the 2013 season. The star receiver only dropped below 60 receiving yards once during this period. Nelson’s dynamic start to the season culminated in a week eight explosion versus the division rival Vikings.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week eight route tree chart:
Nelson’s week eight route tree percentages come out largely the same as the previous two weeks’ charts. The nine route is still the most popular choice, and the posts and slants come in not far behind. The Vikings predominantly played off-man coverage in this game. Nelson was able to defeat them with his usual variety of routes.
This was Nelson’s final full game—until week seventeen—with Rodgers at quarterback. As such, it represents one of the last contests of the 2014 season where he was used in the ideal manner. This week’s route tree chart holds true to Nelson working the patterns that best suit him at a high percentage. The same could be said for where he lined up in week eight.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week eight Reception Perception data:
This was Nelson’s final full game—until week seventeen—with Rodgers at quarterback. As such, it represents one of the last contests of the 2014 season where he was used in the ideal manner. This week’s route tree chart holds true to Nelson working the patterns that best suit him at a high percentage. The same could be said for where he lined up in week eight.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week eight Reception Perception data:
Nelson lined up in the slot on a very low percentage of his snaps in weeks one (9.5%) and two (5.9%). His week eight total is a higher number, with 24.6% of Nelson’s snaps coming from the slot. We’ll see that this is the beginning of a trend that continues for the duration of the season. The Packers were playing without Randall Cobb at this point. Nelson assisted in covering the loss of the ascending young slot receiver.
Nevertheless, Nelson still played in his typical flanker role more often that not. He was deployed behind the line of scrimmage on 62.3% of the time. More of his snaps took place outside, at left (39.1%) and right (36.2%) receiver, than in the slot.
As mentioned, Minnesota primarily played their corners in off-man coverage in this game. Nelson faced man coverage 26 times in week eight, but was only pressed three of those times. Once again Nelson was able to put up a positive success rate against man coverage. Out of the 26 times he faced man coverage, Nelson defeated his defender 65.6% of the time.
In amassing 123 yards and two scores, Nelson gave a glimpse into what makes him a special player. It goes well beyond the fact that he’s a 6’3, 215 pound player with exceptional quickness. After six season in the NFL, Nelson has mastered the subtle skills a receiver must utilize to free themselves from coverage. One such proficiency is the way Nelson uses his body and hands during a route:
Nevertheless, Nelson still played in his typical flanker role more often that not. He was deployed behind the line of scrimmage on 62.3% of the time. More of his snaps took place outside, at left (39.1%) and right (36.2%) receiver, than in the slot.
As mentioned, Minnesota primarily played their corners in off-man coverage in this game. Nelson faced man coverage 26 times in week eight, but was only pressed three of those times. Once again Nelson was able to put up a positive success rate against man coverage. Out of the 26 times he faced man coverage, Nelson defeated his defender 65.6% of the time.
In amassing 123 yards and two scores, Nelson gave a glimpse into what makes him a special player. It goes well beyond the fact that he’s a 6’3, 215 pound player with exceptional quickness. After six season in the NFL, Nelson has mastered the subtle skills a receiver must utilize to free themselves from coverage. One such proficiency is the way Nelson uses his body and hands during a route:
Right after the snap Nelson gains the upper hand. He runs an in-breaking curl route, but the few steps he takes outside gives him great leverage. Nelson puts the cornerback out of position to flip back inside and run with him. In this way he sets up the defender and makes them play at his desired speed. Which assists in dictating the circumstances for his next trick:
Next you’ll notice how the Packers’ star uses his hands when he redirects inside. He finally puts ideal separation between himself and the cornerback at the crucial moment of his route. Nelson uses his right arm in a windmill motion to keep the cornerback’s hands at bay. This move stuns the defender for a moment, and provides ample time for Nelson to cut inside.
Rodgers is preoccupied with climbing the pocket, and his attention is elsewhere. He doesn’t see Nelson break open. That does not take away from the true art form of this route.
So many receivers try to get by on physical gifts and stature. Perhaps Nelson was once one of them, and it contributed to his career’s slow start. It’s impressive to see the work he’s put in to become a complete receiver. Few receivers are masters of the fine arts of the position like Nelson.
Game Four: Week ten against the Philadelphia Eagles
Stats: 6 catches, 56 yards, 0 TDs
Week ten began a change in Jordy Nelson’s 2014 season. The most obvious factor at play was the loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers lost their star quarterback in week nine, and began to transition Seneca Wallace. Even the journeyman backup didn’t last long, and was replaced by the inexperienced Scott Tolzien. Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay coaches responded by changing things up for Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week ten route tree chart:
Rodgers is preoccupied with climbing the pocket, and his attention is elsewhere. He doesn’t see Nelson break open. That does not take away from the true art form of this route.
So many receivers try to get by on physical gifts and stature. Perhaps Nelson was once one of them, and it contributed to his career’s slow start. It’s impressive to see the work he’s put in to become a complete receiver. Few receivers are masters of the fine arts of the position like Nelson.
Game Four: Week ten against the Philadelphia Eagles
Stats: 6 catches, 56 yards, 0 TDs
Week ten began a change in Jordy Nelson’s 2014 season. The most obvious factor at play was the loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers lost their star quarterback in week nine, and began to transition Seneca Wallace. Even the journeyman backup didn’t last long, and was replaced by the inexperienced Scott Tolzien. Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay coaches responded by changing things up for Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week ten route tree chart:
There are some similarities in this week’s route tree chart to the previous sampled games. Routes with sharp stems (slants, corners, posts) were still called with high frequency. The biggest difference lies in the decline of the deep routes.
In the three previous samples, Nelson ran a majority of nine routes. In the week ten loss to the Eagles, his nine routes fell from the twenties to a mere 12.2% figure. The pattern that replaced it as the primary route was the flat.
A flat route is a simple pattern designed to get the receiver open in the short areas near the line of scrimmage. It also provides an easy read for the quarterback. With an inexperienced player like Tolzien taking the majority of the snaps, the Packers used Nelson as an easy read. Being a safe dump off option explains why Nelson averaged less than 10 yards per reception this week. It was just one way the Packers use of Nelson changed.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week ten Reception Perception data:
In the three previous samples, Nelson ran a majority of nine routes. In the week ten loss to the Eagles, his nine routes fell from the twenties to a mere 12.2% figure. The pattern that replaced it as the primary route was the flat.
A flat route is a simple pattern designed to get the receiver open in the short areas near the line of scrimmage. It also provides an easy read for the quarterback. With an inexperienced player like Tolzien taking the majority of the snaps, the Packers used Nelson as an easy read. Being a safe dump off option explains why Nelson averaged less than 10 yards per reception this week. It was just one way the Packers use of Nelson changed.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week ten Reception Perception data:
This was the first, but far from the last week, in which Nelson played a new role. He was no longer the traditional flanker. The receiver played on the line (61.8%) and in the slot (64.5%) for the majority of his snaps. It was apparent very early on that Green Bay wanted their best offensive weapon in prime positions to assist their quarterbacks. The data shows Nelson still managed to thrive in a new assignment.
Tolzien and Wallace relied on Nelson rather heavily. He was targeted on 24.4% of the routes he ran in week ten. He returned the favor by catching passes on 14.6% of those routes—though two were called back by penalties. It’s worth noting that Nelson did also record a drop in this game.
Even though his stats are rather average, Nelson enjoyed one of his best days against man coverage. The Eagles used man coverage against him 27 times, and Nelson defeated it 70.4% of the time. It’s important to remember that Nelson played most of snaps in the slot. While that usually makes for easier assignments, Nelson often faced Brandon Boykin in this game. He is by far the Eagles best defensive back. Boykin is a very good player, but Nelson often got the better of him.
This is where Reception Perception helps shed light on a receiver’s true performance. Jordy Nelson did his job for the most part in week ten, but was limited by other factors. Scott Tolzien saw his first true NFL action in this game. Nelson’s basic statistical output reflected that Tolzien had some limitations:
Tolzien and Wallace relied on Nelson rather heavily. He was targeted on 24.4% of the routes he ran in week ten. He returned the favor by catching passes on 14.6% of those routes—though two were called back by penalties. It’s worth noting that Nelson did also record a drop in this game.
Even though his stats are rather average, Nelson enjoyed one of his best days against man coverage. The Eagles used man coverage against him 27 times, and Nelson defeated it 70.4% of the time. It’s important to remember that Nelson played most of snaps in the slot. While that usually makes for easier assignments, Nelson often faced Brandon Boykin in this game. He is by far the Eagles best defensive back. Boykin is a very good player, but Nelson often got the better of him.
This is where Reception Perception helps shed light on a receiver’s true performance. Jordy Nelson did his job for the most part in week ten, but was limited by other factors. Scott Tolzien saw his first true NFL action in this game. Nelson’s basic statistical output reflected that Tolzien had some limitations:
We’ve seen through Nelson’s route tree charts that he’s a player that requires a lot of timing. The post and slant routes he runs demands that he and his quarterback be on the same page. Nelson has played with Aaron Rodgers for years, so that isn’t normally an issue. With Tolzien, we can see that timing was a problem early on.
Nelson runs a deep comeback on this play. The route doesn’t buy much separation for the receiver until the critical point. Nelson quickly flips around to face the sideline, expecting the ball, but is disappointed. Tolzien delivers the ball far too late and it sails over Nelson’s head.
Another example where Tolzien hampered Nelson is found on the interception Brandon Boykin retuned for a touchdown:
Nelson runs a deep comeback on this play. The route doesn’t buy much separation for the receiver until the critical point. Nelson quickly flips around to face the sideline, expecting the ball, but is disappointed. Tolzien delivers the ball far too late and it sails over Nelson’s head.
Another example where Tolzien hampered Nelson is found on the interception Brandon Boykin retuned for a touchdown:
Nelson lines up across from Boykin in the slot and runs a corner route to the end zone. In real speed, it looks like a pass that Tolzien shouldn’t make. However, the quarterback was wise to attempt the throw, but didn’t have the arm to get it in:
For an end zone pass, Nelson achieves enough separation to create a window. There is adequate space for the quarterback to place the ball ahead of Nelson and score a touchdown.
The ball comes out of Tolzien’s hand, but its behind the receiver and arrives too late. Boykin is able to jump the route and return the pass for a score of his own.
This is the type of play that shows why Nelson’s stats began to dip in the second half of the season. He still finished with great numbers, but fell short of dominating basic figures. If he had Aaron Rodgers for the full year, it might have been a different story.
Game Five: Week twelve against the Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 4 catches, 58 yards, 0 TDs
During the first contest with the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers ruled supreme. They bested their division rivals 44 to 31. With Aaron Rodgers out of the picture, things were much different in week twelve. This game ended in a dreaded tie, which serves no good for anyone. The stats give the impression that Jordy Nelson’s performance sank with his team. Reception Perception would argue otherwise.
Here’s Nelson’s week twelve route tree chart:
The ball comes out of Tolzien’s hand, but its behind the receiver and arrives too late. Boykin is able to jump the route and return the pass for a score of his own.
This is the type of play that shows why Nelson’s stats began to dip in the second half of the season. He still finished with great numbers, but fell short of dominating basic figures. If he had Aaron Rodgers for the full year, it might have been a different story.
Game Five: Week twelve against the Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 4 catches, 58 yards, 0 TDs
During the first contest with the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers ruled supreme. They bested their division rivals 44 to 31. With Aaron Rodgers out of the picture, things were much different in week twelve. This game ended in a dreaded tie, which serves no good for anyone. The stats give the impression that Jordy Nelson’s performance sank with his team. Reception Perception would argue otherwise.
Here’s Nelson’s week twelve route tree chart:
With 60 total routes run, this was Nelson’s busiest game of the season. This contest stretched an entire extra quarter, since no one was able to win in overtime. The nine routes returned to prominence, as Nelson ran them 26.7% of the time in week twelve. The Packers needed him to go deep to try and win the game, and cover deficits. The number of flat routes (16.7%) indicates the Packers were still trying to use him as a safe option for Tolzien.
A new phenomenon began to show up in this game for Nelson. His percentage of “other” routes rose to 8.3%. One pattern that Reception Perception defines as “other” is an option route. Green Bay asked Nelson to run a few of these during this game.
Nelson would often start by running a simple out, or flat route, but could decide to break it up field. Here’s one such example that paid off for Green Bay:
A new phenomenon began to show up in this game for Nelson. His percentage of “other” routes rose to 8.3%. One pattern that Reception Perception defines as “other” is an option route. Green Bay asked Nelson to run a few of these during this game.
Nelson would often start by running a simple out, or flat route, but could decide to break it up field. Here’s one such example that paid off for Green Bay:
Nelson starts by taking his man toward the sideline. There is a safe and easy play to be had here, but Nelson elects to go for broke. He cuts hard to go downfield, and try for a big play. His quarterback sees the receiver, and delivers a decent pass that Nelson makes a fantastic catch on.
These types of routes show just how much faith and trust the coaches have in Nelson. They believe in his ability to diagnose coverage and make decisions. He has proven himself to them with outstanding games like this one.
Here’s Nelson’s week twelve Reception Perception data:
These types of routes show just how much faith and trust the coaches have in Nelson. They believe in his ability to diagnose coverage and make decisions. He has proven himself to them with outstanding games like this one.
Here’s Nelson’s week twelve Reception Perception data:
Once again, Nelson lined up in the slot for 84.5% of his snaps. The Packers tried to get him favorable matchups for his quarterback. Yet, Tolzien and eventually Matt Flynn only targeted Nelson on 11.6% of his routes. Which is curious, considering Nelson’s high marks against coverage.
Nelson had a fine success rate of 60% against man coverage, but was simply outstanding versus zones. Of the 16 recorded attempts against zone coverage, Nelson was open on 100% of them. Nelson has already proved himself to be an excellent receiver versus zone coverage. But a perfect success rate is still remarkable, even against the Vikings less than stellar corners.
This is the sort of game where the Reception Perception methodology helps uncover the hidden truth. You would think an elite receiver should do better than 4 catches for 58 yards on 97 snaps. Through the success rate percentage, we can see Nelson was doing his job far more often than not.
So often in football, the real details go far beyond the box score. Such is the case with Nelson’s week twelve contest. Reception Perception shows it was just another great day at the office for this elite wide receiver.
Game Six: Week thirteen against the Lions
Stats: 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TDs
If you were one of many viewers of this nationally televised game, you remember what a drag it was. This Thanksgiving Day mess of a contest was a very tough watch. The Lions defensive line beat up on the Packers all day long. It made for some of the worst quarterbacking imaginable, courtesy of Matt Flynn. The offensive mess even finally trickled down to Jordy Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week thirteen route tree chart:
Nelson had a fine success rate of 60% against man coverage, but was simply outstanding versus zones. Of the 16 recorded attempts against zone coverage, Nelson was open on 100% of them. Nelson has already proved himself to be an excellent receiver versus zone coverage. But a perfect success rate is still remarkable, even against the Vikings less than stellar corners.
This is the sort of game where the Reception Perception methodology helps uncover the hidden truth. You would think an elite receiver should do better than 4 catches for 58 yards on 97 snaps. Through the success rate percentage, we can see Nelson was doing his job far more often than not.
So often in football, the real details go far beyond the box score. Such is the case with Nelson’s week twelve contest. Reception Perception shows it was just another great day at the office for this elite wide receiver.
Game Six: Week thirteen against the Lions
Stats: 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TDs
If you were one of many viewers of this nationally televised game, you remember what a drag it was. This Thanksgiving Day mess of a contest was a very tough watch. The Lions defensive line beat up on the Packers all day long. It made for some of the worst quarterbacking imaginable, courtesy of Matt Flynn. The offensive mess even finally trickled down to Jordy Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week thirteen route tree chart:
The 29 routes run jumps off the page as evidence of the offense’s struggles as a whole. It was hard to find a rhythm. The poor quarterback play led to painfully short possessions.
It’s hard to create an accurate sample from less than 30 routes. Yet, there is still some interesting route data here. To this point, the out route hadn’t been a featured part of Nelson’s arsenal. In week thirteen, it was the second most frequent (20.7%) route he ran.
Not that Nelson is a poor out-route runner, but perhaps this contributed to his average game. The Packers were often playing from behind, and they needed to move down the field in chunks. Green Bay may have tried to use Nelson on out routes to work him down the sideline, and to snare big plays. The plan could not work, with the offense having one hand tied behind its back.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week thirteen Reception Perception data:
It’s hard to create an accurate sample from less than 30 routes. Yet, there is still some interesting route data here. To this point, the out route hadn’t been a featured part of Nelson’s arsenal. In week thirteen, it was the second most frequent (20.7%) route he ran.
Not that Nelson is a poor out-route runner, but perhaps this contributed to his average game. The Packers were often playing from behind, and they needed to move down the field in chunks. Green Bay may have tried to use Nelson on out routes to work him down the sideline, and to snare big plays. The plan could not work, with the offense having one hand tied behind its back.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week thirteen Reception Perception data:
In a lost effort for the Green Bay offense, Nelson had a very average game. Still, there are some rates in which he came out very well. Nelson had another good success rate of 77.7% against zone coverage. It was only four attempts, but Nelson never allowed the Lions corners to jam him at the line.
The number that stands out from his previous games is the 53.9% success rate against man coverage. This was Nelson’s lowest charted success rate against man coverage. The Lions pass rush forced Matt Flynn into mistakes and sacks so often the receivers lacked the time to get free from coverage. Nevertheless, it was still Nelson’s worst output of the season, though he maintained a positive success/failure ratio.
Game Seven: Week sixteen against the Pittsburgh Steelers
Stats: 3 catches, 46 yards, 0 TDs
By the time week sixteen rolled around, Jordy Nelson and the Packers were still toiling under Matt Flynn. The longtime backup proved to be a short-term spark for the offense, but did not achieve sustained success. Due to this, Green Bay began to transition to a run heavy offense under Eddie Lacy. It was a sharp contrast from the spread and pass-heavy offense. Nelson still proved to be a nice fit.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week sixteen route tree chart:
The number that stands out from his previous games is the 53.9% success rate against man coverage. This was Nelson’s lowest charted success rate against man coverage. The Lions pass rush forced Matt Flynn into mistakes and sacks so often the receivers lacked the time to get free from coverage. Nevertheless, it was still Nelson’s worst output of the season, though he maintained a positive success/failure ratio.
Game Seven: Week sixteen against the Pittsburgh Steelers
Stats: 3 catches, 46 yards, 0 TDs
By the time week sixteen rolled around, Jordy Nelson and the Packers were still toiling under Matt Flynn. The longtime backup proved to be a short-term spark for the offense, but did not achieve sustained success. Due to this, Green Bay began to transition to a run heavy offense under Eddie Lacy. It was a sharp contrast from the spread and pass-heavy offense. Nelson still proved to be a nice fit.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week sixteen route tree chart:
Week sixteen provided one of the more balanced Nelson route tree charts. He did not run any one pattern more than 20% of the time. His most frequent, the post and nine, routes remained features of his game. While the late season favorite, the flat route was also used frequently in this game. Like in week twelve, the Packers used Nelson on option and freelance routes (12%) a decent amount.
The balance and disparity between Nelson’s routes make sense considering his opponent. The Steelers, under Dick LaBeau, have long utilized unique zone blitz and coverage schemes. Nelson and the coaches likely wanted to change things up and keep the defensive backs on their toes.
If that was the strategy, the data seems to indicate it worked. This was an uninspiring statistical day, but Reception Perception tells a different story.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week sixteen reception perception data:
The balance and disparity between Nelson’s routes make sense considering his opponent. The Steelers, under Dick LaBeau, have long utilized unique zone blitz and coverage schemes. Nelson and the coaches likely wanted to change things up and keep the defensive backs on their toes.
If that was the strategy, the data seems to indicate it worked. This was an uninspiring statistical day, but Reception Perception tells a different story.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week sixteen reception perception data:
As throughout the second half of the season, Nelson continues to play in the slot. He took 89.5% of his snaps in the slot, and rarely played outside. While that’s a continuation of a trend, several pieces of new data stand out.
As mentioned, at this point of the season the Packers were a run heavy attack. Running Lacy behind a good offensive line just made the most sense for the team’s success. Nelson did his part in this style, even if it hurt his overall numbers. His 88.9% winning success rate as a run blocker showed his willingness to adapt. On plays where Green Bay needed a spring, Nelson provided the necessary block.
The other figure that sticks out is his success against the Steelers’ coverage. The ten press attempts Nelson faced in week sixteen were one of the most among charted games. It’s a skill that Reception Perception hadn’t yet found a great grasp on with this player. His week sixteen work shows he can beat the jam just fine. After beating the jam, Nelson continued to abuse zone coverage. In 20 attempts, Nelson maintained a strong success rate of 70%.
Reception Perception continues to look favorably on Jordy Nelson even through some of his poor statistical games. The data collected indicates that the quarterback situation was more to blame for these average days.
Game Eight: Week seventeen against the Chicago Bears
Stats: 10 catches, 161 yards, 0 TDs
He’s back. After a long absence, superman returned to save the Packers season. It was clear Aaron Rodgers wasn’t quite at full capacity, but his arrival signaled an uptick for Nelson. His stats were better than they had been in months. On the surface, things appeared to be back to normal for Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week seventeen route tree chart:
As mentioned, at this point of the season the Packers were a run heavy attack. Running Lacy behind a good offensive line just made the most sense for the team’s success. Nelson did his part in this style, even if it hurt his overall numbers. His 88.9% winning success rate as a run blocker showed his willingness to adapt. On plays where Green Bay needed a spring, Nelson provided the necessary block.
The other figure that sticks out is his success against the Steelers’ coverage. The ten press attempts Nelson faced in week sixteen were one of the most among charted games. It’s a skill that Reception Perception hadn’t yet found a great grasp on with this player. His week sixteen work shows he can beat the jam just fine. After beating the jam, Nelson continued to abuse zone coverage. In 20 attempts, Nelson maintained a strong success rate of 70%.
Reception Perception continues to look favorably on Jordy Nelson even through some of his poor statistical games. The data collected indicates that the quarterback situation was more to blame for these average days.
Game Eight: Week seventeen against the Chicago Bears
Stats: 10 catches, 161 yards, 0 TDs
He’s back. After a long absence, superman returned to save the Packers season. It was clear Aaron Rodgers wasn’t quite at full capacity, but his arrival signaled an uptick for Nelson. His stats were better than they had been in months. On the surface, things appeared to be back to normal for Nelson.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week seventeen route tree chart:
Week seventeen gave some of the most unique data among Jordy Nelson’s route tree charts. Nelson ran an overwhelmingly large majority of slant routes, at a season high 27.1% figure. His rate of post routes run was also high at 21.6%.
One thing that became clear during the run of backup quarterbacks, is that they all lacked anticipation. With this attribute compromised behind center, Nelson was forced to adjust his game. Now that Rodgers was back, the coaches dialed up plenty of Nelson’s best routes. Even at less than full strength, Rodgers’ timing and anticipation were big assets in the return of the high volume of these breaking routes. There was more normality for Nelson in week seventeen, beyond the routes.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week seventeen Reception Perception data:
One thing that became clear during the run of backup quarterbacks, is that they all lacked anticipation. With this attribute compromised behind center, Nelson was forced to adjust his game. Now that Rodgers was back, the coaches dialed up plenty of Nelson’s best routes. Even at less than full strength, Rodgers’ timing and anticipation were big assets in the return of the high volume of these breaking routes. There was more normality for Nelson in week seventeen, beyond the routes.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s week seventeen Reception Perception data:
While Nelson did not go back to his flanker role on a full-time basis, but there was a transition. His slot percentage was in the 70’s and 80’s percentage prior to week seventeen. In this game it returned closer to the early season figures, at 51.9%. Randall Cobb also returned to the Packers that week. He is the team’s primary slot receiver, and he began to reprise that role. Had he been closer to full strength, Nelson’s slot percentage would have been even lower.
Digging in to the rest of the data, a conclusion becomes very clear. Week seventeen was Nelson’s best charted game of the season. The star receiver was the main focus of the passing offense once again. He ran 37 routes against the Bears, and Rodgers targeted him on 45.9% of them. Nelson converted on his chances with success by catching passes on 27% of his routes.
When it came to facing coverage, Nelson was exceptional no matter the circumstances. Chicago’s approach was a balanced one as well, with 13 man and 21 zone attempts. Neither method did much to slow down Nelson. He obliterated zone coverage with an 85.7% success rate, and dispatched of man with an 84.6% figure. Such high marks show just how good and balanced a player he is.
Reception Perception has covered in detail just how good Nelson is in most facets, but this game gave a final one. He isn’t some dynamic runner with the ball in his hands. However, as in most facets of the position, Nelson thrives by mastering the detailed arts:
Digging in to the rest of the data, a conclusion becomes very clear. Week seventeen was Nelson’s best charted game of the season. The star receiver was the main focus of the passing offense once again. He ran 37 routes against the Bears, and Rodgers targeted him on 45.9% of them. Nelson converted on his chances with success by catching passes on 27% of his routes.
When it came to facing coverage, Nelson was exceptional no matter the circumstances. Chicago’s approach was a balanced one as well, with 13 man and 21 zone attempts. Neither method did much to slow down Nelson. He obliterated zone coverage with an 85.7% success rate, and dispatched of man with an 84.6% figure. Such high marks show just how good and balanced a player he is.
Reception Perception has covered in detail just how good Nelson is in most facets, but this game gave a final one. He isn’t some dynamic runner with the ball in his hands. However, as in most facets of the position, Nelson thrives by mastering the detailed arts:
This was an instance charted where Nelson broke tackle attempts by multiple players. You’ll notice that he doesn’t speed around any of them, or use any fancy moves. Instead, Nelson excels at an often-overlooked part of being a runner with the ball in your hands.
Finding and maintaining balance is key for football players. With bodies diving around them as they charge down field, players must work to stay on their feet. Its something many struggle with. As this play shows, Nelson can adequately stay strong and use his body to maintain balance.
Nuanced aspects like this are attributes that get overlooked when glancing through Nelson’s work. The Reception Perception process brings these, and other little things, to the forefront. It helps show why he is such an impressive player.
The data as a whole and drawing conclusions
The charted games from Jordy Nelson’s 2013 season tell an interesting story. He started strong with monstrous statistical games. Here Nelson was in his ideal position, and playing alongside his All-Pro quarterback.
Even when the situation worsened, and he played a new role, Nelson still excelled. While he had some average statistical efforts, the Reception Perception data shows Nelson was still an elite wide receiver.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s route tree and reception chart from all the 2013 sampled games:
Finding and maintaining balance is key for football players. With bodies diving around them as they charge down field, players must work to stay on their feet. Its something many struggle with. As this play shows, Nelson can adequately stay strong and use his body to maintain balance.
Nuanced aspects like this are attributes that get overlooked when glancing through Nelson’s work. The Reception Perception process brings these, and other little things, to the forefront. It helps show why he is such an impressive player.
The data as a whole and drawing conclusions
The charted games from Jordy Nelson’s 2013 season tell an interesting story. He started strong with monstrous statistical games. Here Nelson was in his ideal position, and playing alongside his All-Pro quarterback.
Even when the situation worsened, and he played a new role, Nelson still excelled. While he had some average statistical efforts, the Reception Perception data shows Nelson was still an elite wide receiver.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s route tree and reception chart from all the 2013 sampled games:
The full sample’s route tree chart helps display what Nelson does best as a receiver. And what he means to the Packers
The high rate of nine routes (19.1%) is an indication of two phenomena. First, Nelson is an excellent receiver down the sidelines. He stays strong and responds well to tight physical coverage. He makes plays in traffic and possesses the spatial awareness to work down the boundaries. Secondly, Nelson is the primary threat in Green Bay’s offense. Throughout the 2013 season it was clear opponents respected him the most. The Packers responded by using him on go routes to clear out two defensive backs, and make room for the other receivers.
The slant and post routes are staples of Jordy Nelson’s game. His elite quickness helps him gain optimal separation at the stem of his routes. At the point where the pattern break infield, Nelson is at his best. The technical acumen of his game also helps him leave cornerbacks in the dust when its time to break on routes.
All in all, route running is strength of Jordy Nelson’s game. Through six years in the NFL, it’s clear to see how much he’s developed here. With great quickness, and a mastery of the little things, Nelson dominates as a route technician.
Nelson’s reception chart shows how balanced of a player he is. His use on flat routes led to high figures like 11 catches in the short area of the outside left. However, Nelson maintained good reception figures in most areas of the field. He can make plays just about anywhere.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s Reception Perception data from all the 2013 sampled games:
The high rate of nine routes (19.1%) is an indication of two phenomena. First, Nelson is an excellent receiver down the sidelines. He stays strong and responds well to tight physical coverage. He makes plays in traffic and possesses the spatial awareness to work down the boundaries. Secondly, Nelson is the primary threat in Green Bay’s offense. Throughout the 2013 season it was clear opponents respected him the most. The Packers responded by using him on go routes to clear out two defensive backs, and make room for the other receivers.
The slant and post routes are staples of Jordy Nelson’s game. His elite quickness helps him gain optimal separation at the stem of his routes. At the point where the pattern break infield, Nelson is at his best. The technical acumen of his game also helps him leave cornerbacks in the dust when its time to break on routes.
All in all, route running is strength of Jordy Nelson’s game. Through six years in the NFL, it’s clear to see how much he’s developed here. With great quickness, and a mastery of the little things, Nelson dominates as a route technician.
Nelson’s reception chart shows how balanced of a player he is. His use on flat routes led to high figures like 11 catches in the short area of the outside left. However, Nelson maintained good reception figures in most areas of the field. He can make plays just about anywhere.
Here’s Jordy Nelson’s Reception Perception data from all the 2013 sampled games:
We saw Nelson’s role evolve throughout the 2013 season. The loss of Randall Cobb and the influx of new quarterbacks saw Nelson work mostly as a slot receiver. He ended up playing 52.2% of his snaps in the slot and 53.3% of them on the line of scrimmage.
While Nelson did well in this role, it was out of necessity. Should the Packers offense remain at full strength in 2014, he would resume his ideal role as the flanker. Yet, his strong showing in 2013 proved that Nelson is a versatile weapon, and not limited to one receiver spot.
Jordy Nelson proved adaptable to change not only as a receiver, but also as a cog in the machine. The Packers became much more run heavy in 2013, and Nelson play was a big help. It seems like a minor aspect, but Nelson’s passing success rate of 68.2% as a run blocker was a nice sign. When the Packers do run the ball, they can feel comfortable with him on the perimeter.
Jarrett Boykin, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Andrew Quarless all played big roles as pass catchers. The Green Bay offense has plenty of mouth to feed. Yet, Nelson still was targeted on 21.2% of his 2013 sampled routes. That’s a seemingly high volume in this offense. If it wasn’t clear to all observers before, Jordy Nelson proved he is the number one receiver on this squad.
A receiver’s primary job is to beat the defenders across from him. There’s no doubt Jordy Nelson excels at those duties. Whether it was zone or man coverage, he maintained a nice success rate against cornerbacks. His 65.5% success rate against man shows he is usually a strong option for his quarterback. The 69.8% success rate against zone demonstrates how intelligent a player he has developed into. Though it was a small sample size, his very high 81.3% success rate against press coverage is quite inspiring. No matter what the defense does, it’s hard to slow down the player Jordy Nelson became last season.
Jordy Nelson graded out in a positive fashion in all of Reception Perception’s data charts. His route tree and snap charts showed he’s a versatile player, and a dominant route runner. Hopefully, the data presented in Reception Perception helps shed light on a fact too often going unsaid. Jordy Nelson is one of the best receivers in the NFL today.
Going forward, its fair to expect even better statistical numbers from Nelson next season. He gets open more often than not, and has refined his craft to an art form. A full season with Aaron Rodgers in 2014 should help him get his due.
Admin note: It will also be interesting to compare Nelson’s figures with other receivers as they get the Reception Perception treatment. Right now, this is all independent data, but newer studies will provide more context. Make sure to stay tuned and to vote for the next featured Reception Perception receiver on the series’ homepage. Maybe I’ll take it into account.
While Nelson did well in this role, it was out of necessity. Should the Packers offense remain at full strength in 2014, he would resume his ideal role as the flanker. Yet, his strong showing in 2013 proved that Nelson is a versatile weapon, and not limited to one receiver spot.
Jordy Nelson proved adaptable to change not only as a receiver, but also as a cog in the machine. The Packers became much more run heavy in 2013, and Nelson play was a big help. It seems like a minor aspect, but Nelson’s passing success rate of 68.2% as a run blocker was a nice sign. When the Packers do run the ball, they can feel comfortable with him on the perimeter.
Jarrett Boykin, Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Randall Cobb and Andrew Quarless all played big roles as pass catchers. The Green Bay offense has plenty of mouth to feed. Yet, Nelson still was targeted on 21.2% of his 2013 sampled routes. That’s a seemingly high volume in this offense. If it wasn’t clear to all observers before, Jordy Nelson proved he is the number one receiver on this squad.
A receiver’s primary job is to beat the defenders across from him. There’s no doubt Jordy Nelson excels at those duties. Whether it was zone or man coverage, he maintained a nice success rate against cornerbacks. His 65.5% success rate against man shows he is usually a strong option for his quarterback. The 69.8% success rate against zone demonstrates how intelligent a player he has developed into. Though it was a small sample size, his very high 81.3% success rate against press coverage is quite inspiring. No matter what the defense does, it’s hard to slow down the player Jordy Nelson became last season.
Jordy Nelson graded out in a positive fashion in all of Reception Perception’s data charts. His route tree and snap charts showed he’s a versatile player, and a dominant route runner. Hopefully, the data presented in Reception Perception helps shed light on a fact too often going unsaid. Jordy Nelson is one of the best receivers in the NFL today.
Going forward, its fair to expect even better statistical numbers from Nelson next season. He gets open more often than not, and has refined his craft to an art form. A full season with Aaron Rodgers in 2014 should help him get his due.
Admin note: It will also be interesting to compare Nelson’s figures with other receivers as they get the Reception Perception treatment. Right now, this is all independent data, but newer studies will provide more context. Make sure to stay tuned and to vote for the next featured Reception Perception receiver on the series’ homepage. Maybe I’ll take it into account.
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