Analyzing the Landing Spots for the First Round Wide Recievers
By: Matt Harmon
May 1st, 2015
May 1st, 2015
Kevin White was among many talented wide receivers drafted on Thursday night (Image: Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press).
Hours of hard work goes into our pre-draft work and evaluations of players. However, it is oftentimes their fit and landing spots that determine the trajectory of their career, and their statistical outcomes. It is important, especially this early, to stay true to your scouting work, but this new piece of data given is paramount.
While I am still very much a believer in the talent of the players laid out in my wide receiver rankings, my feelings on their projections may have changed based on where, and to where, they were drafted. Here are some off the cuff reactions to the landing spots for the wide receivers drafted in the first round.
Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper Drafted 4th Overall
While I like Kevin White better as a prospect, The Raiders selecting Amari Cooper over the West Virginia receiver makes complete sense. Cooper, while not an overwhelming physical specimen, has rareness with how polished he is early in his development. Relative to his peers, the Alabama receiver is incredibly advanced with how he can beat defenders as a route runner—using deception, technique and timing that is almost uncanny for a receiver coming out of school. He is a terrific fit as a short to intermediate dominator, in timing based offense.
As such, Amari Cooper is exactly what Derek Carr needs. Based on last year’s tape, it appears Oakland wants to run an offense based on quick-hitting, and high percentage passing attempts. While Bill Musgrave has a mediocre track record as an offensive play-caller, he did spend a year with Chip Kelly and could bring along an up-tempo philosophy to Oakland. An infusion of the two would signal the influx of a very interesting offense for the Raiders.
Much like the veteran Oakland recently added, Cooper offers Carr a player that will flash open early in his routes. His issues were not as pronounced as a rookie as they were in college, but Carr still is a below-average passer against pressure. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper give him the young passer a one-two punch that should help him minimize this weakness in his game. They’re also reliable presences at a position that has been long filled with athletic, but volatile players. In Oakland, Cooper profiles as a player who will catch 80-plus passes for many seasons to come, provided Carr continues to develop. He could start putting up those gaudy stats as a soon as this season.
For more information on Amari Cooper, check out his Reception Perception evaluation.
Chicago Bears – Kevin White Drafted 7th Overall
On the field, Kevin White will make for a fine replacement of the departed Brandon Marshall. Many off the attributes that Jay Cutler so appreciated in Marshall’s game, he will find came with White to the NFL. The rookie receiver plays with a fire in his gut after the catch, and often requires multiple defenders to bring him down. Marshall is famous for being a tough out with the ball in his hands. White also thrives in contested situations, and winning those 50-50 balls that Cutler is so fond of throwing up. On those two abilities alone, Cutler and White should make for a sensible pairing.
However, this selection was not at all Jay Cutler-centered. It’s quite clear there is no love lost between the Bears new brass and the quarterback the decisions of others has stuck them with. As such, White’s capabilities to work in an offense beyond the “heave it up” styling of Cutler is the icing on the cake. While he was not asked to run many routes at West Virginia, he executed those he was with pristine proficiency. He showed every trait you’d need to see in order to conclude that he can win as a technician at every level of the field. Once Chicago does replace Cutler, White will have incorporated more nuance into his game, and will already have the skills to maximize his special abilities on the high-percentage routes he’s mastered.
John Fox’s history of bringing rookies along slowly throws some cold water on the idea that White will come out swinging his rookie season. However, this is move with an excellent long-term ceiling. Alshon Jeffery is a very good player, and can shoulder the burden of the number-one duties as White comes along in the NFL. But it may not be too long before White relegates Jeffery back to the role of second fiddle in the Bears passing game. Expect the Kevin White to end up the lead receiver before too long.
For more information on Kevin White, check out his Reception Perception evaluation.
Miami Dolphins – DeVante Parker Drafted 14th Overall
This is the receiver pick I feel the most conflicted about in round one, which figured to be the case wherever DeVante Parker went. As a rookie, Parker may struggle to beat out the trio of Greg Jenning, Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry. That already felt like a well-rounded, and diverse group. Of course, Parker carries the ability and physical upside, that none of those three possess, to be the number one receiver for the Dolphins. In that sense, maybe the setup in Miami will help bring Parker along slowly. Throughout the process, it has appeared that would be best for Parker.
Ryan Tannehill ran a simplified offense last year. It will be interesting to see if Parker assimilates into that, or becomes the weapon that helps them break away into a more traditional NFL offense. The college style attack that Miami played with last season would help put Parker in positions to win based on his excellent athletic abilities. At least this would happen more often than it would on the majority of teams in the league. However, this may also keep him from getting the consistent reps he needs in a pro-style attack to get himself wrapped around the nuanced parts of the game. He needs those in order to reach his potential.
There is both good and bad to DeVante Parker landing with Miami. Personally, it would not be surprising to see his tenure there go either way. Yet, there is no doubt he fits the profile of the player that this passing game needed.
Philadelphia Eagles – Nelson Agholor Drafted 20th Overall
What a slam-dunk. Nelson Agholor was higher in my rankings than he was for many other analysts. What he brought to the table was a safe and reliable floor, but with plenty of excellent abilities to propel him to a very high-ceiling. A high-volume role with a smart offensive coordinator was the other ingredients he needed to make that a reality. Sure enough, Agholor received both when he landed in Philadelphia.
We’ve seen Chip Kelly craft utilization plans for both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, give them bother career years, and let them go soon after. Now, it seems he has his long-term player for that spot in Agholor. The USC receiver brings fearlessness in traffic, and ability to thrive after the catch. Neither of which any of the other current Eagles’ receivers have. He also offers the reliability, and solid technique that Chip Kelly seems to prefer out of his passing game assets. Agholor appears to have everything you look for out of good route runners are the college level, and should develop further in the at area of the game.
Do not be surprised if Agholor, a player this team highly coveted, ends up being the most productive rookie this year. He’s tailor made for the role he’ll play in the Eagles passing game, and may be one of the two or three most talented players on their offense right now. Quite honestly, he’s a better version of Jeremy Maclin.
Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman Drafted 26th Overall
If ever there was a perfect landing spot for a rookie receiver this year, it was Baltimore. Marc Trestman in town now, with fearless competent quarterback behind center, and a clear need for pass catchers. The Ravens’ new offensive coordinator needed a young, gifted player to build his passing game around. He may have just snagged one in Breshad Perriman.
Perriman is chronically criticized for drops, but he does not have bad hands. While he needs to work on timing, in relation to when he throws his mitts up, he tracks the ball well and makes routine catches with ease. The mishaps can be ironed out of his games, and are not “kiss of death” type of hands issues. Even so, the highs Perriman comes with can negate the errors. Clearly fast, he also brings quickness and fluidity to the table, which will help him develop as a route runner. I already saw signs that Perriman has good release technique, and understands how and when to utilize deception in-route. He is not nearly as raw as his reputation would suggest.
Early on in his career, Perriman can be the type of player that makes splash plays, and creates yards when given space. As a bonus, his vertical ability will help clear out room for the other less-than-impressive receivers in Baltimore’s offense. This player is an ideal fit with Joe Flacco, and could be his running mate for a very long time.
Indianapolis Colts – Phillip Dorsett Drafted 29th Overall
It took until the end of the round, but we finally had a receiver pick that I truly disliked. The Colts went with a small, speedy receiver in Phillip Dorsett, despite carrying a very similar player in T.Y. Hilton. Not that having two Hiltons is a bad thing, but I struggle to see Dorsett approaching that ceiling, due to his lack of in-air ability.
In the immediate sense, it’s hard to imagine Dorsett vaulting Andre Johnson in the pecking order, and Hilton is entrenched at the top. Can Dorsett beat out Moncrief? If so, that’s not a good sign for the latter’s development. It’s never a good sign when a pick is made that feels like a barrier for an investment made just the previous year. As a long-term asset, Dorsett lands in a nice landing spot, with a quarterback who should get him the ball down the field. Andrew Luck’s ball placement and timing may make it so that Dorsett can catch deep shots in stride, which will mask his struggles in the air. One way or another, Luck and Dorsett are going to make some beautiful music together on the highlight reels.
Despite the potential for splash plays, and being a supporter of the “you cannot overstock the cupboards for a franchise quarterback” philosophy, I just do not care for this pick. The Colts needed help in many other areas, outside of a pass catcher. If you are a supporter of forgoing need, and just taking quality players, there was a receiver who can do what Dorsett does but much better, in Devin Smith, available at he 29th pick. I struggle to envision a scenario in which Dorsett becomes an above average receiver, who regularly approaches 1,000 yards-a-season.
While I am still very much a believer in the talent of the players laid out in my wide receiver rankings, my feelings on their projections may have changed based on where, and to where, they were drafted. Here are some off the cuff reactions to the landing spots for the wide receivers drafted in the first round.
Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper Drafted 4th Overall
While I like Kevin White better as a prospect, The Raiders selecting Amari Cooper over the West Virginia receiver makes complete sense. Cooper, while not an overwhelming physical specimen, has rareness with how polished he is early in his development. Relative to his peers, the Alabama receiver is incredibly advanced with how he can beat defenders as a route runner—using deception, technique and timing that is almost uncanny for a receiver coming out of school. He is a terrific fit as a short to intermediate dominator, in timing based offense.
As such, Amari Cooper is exactly what Derek Carr needs. Based on last year’s tape, it appears Oakland wants to run an offense based on quick-hitting, and high percentage passing attempts. While Bill Musgrave has a mediocre track record as an offensive play-caller, he did spend a year with Chip Kelly and could bring along an up-tempo philosophy to Oakland. An infusion of the two would signal the influx of a very interesting offense for the Raiders.
Much like the veteran Oakland recently added, Cooper offers Carr a player that will flash open early in his routes. His issues were not as pronounced as a rookie as they were in college, but Carr still is a below-average passer against pressure. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper give him the young passer a one-two punch that should help him minimize this weakness in his game. They’re also reliable presences at a position that has been long filled with athletic, but volatile players. In Oakland, Cooper profiles as a player who will catch 80-plus passes for many seasons to come, provided Carr continues to develop. He could start putting up those gaudy stats as a soon as this season.
For more information on Amari Cooper, check out his Reception Perception evaluation.
Chicago Bears – Kevin White Drafted 7th Overall
On the field, Kevin White will make for a fine replacement of the departed Brandon Marshall. Many off the attributes that Jay Cutler so appreciated in Marshall’s game, he will find came with White to the NFL. The rookie receiver plays with a fire in his gut after the catch, and often requires multiple defenders to bring him down. Marshall is famous for being a tough out with the ball in his hands. White also thrives in contested situations, and winning those 50-50 balls that Cutler is so fond of throwing up. On those two abilities alone, Cutler and White should make for a sensible pairing.
However, this selection was not at all Jay Cutler-centered. It’s quite clear there is no love lost between the Bears new brass and the quarterback the decisions of others has stuck them with. As such, White’s capabilities to work in an offense beyond the “heave it up” styling of Cutler is the icing on the cake. While he was not asked to run many routes at West Virginia, he executed those he was with pristine proficiency. He showed every trait you’d need to see in order to conclude that he can win as a technician at every level of the field. Once Chicago does replace Cutler, White will have incorporated more nuance into his game, and will already have the skills to maximize his special abilities on the high-percentage routes he’s mastered.
John Fox’s history of bringing rookies along slowly throws some cold water on the idea that White will come out swinging his rookie season. However, this is move with an excellent long-term ceiling. Alshon Jeffery is a very good player, and can shoulder the burden of the number-one duties as White comes along in the NFL. But it may not be too long before White relegates Jeffery back to the role of second fiddle in the Bears passing game. Expect the Kevin White to end up the lead receiver before too long.
For more information on Kevin White, check out his Reception Perception evaluation.
Miami Dolphins – DeVante Parker Drafted 14th Overall
This is the receiver pick I feel the most conflicted about in round one, which figured to be the case wherever DeVante Parker went. As a rookie, Parker may struggle to beat out the trio of Greg Jenning, Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry. That already felt like a well-rounded, and diverse group. Of course, Parker carries the ability and physical upside, that none of those three possess, to be the number one receiver for the Dolphins. In that sense, maybe the setup in Miami will help bring Parker along slowly. Throughout the process, it has appeared that would be best for Parker.
Ryan Tannehill ran a simplified offense last year. It will be interesting to see if Parker assimilates into that, or becomes the weapon that helps them break away into a more traditional NFL offense. The college style attack that Miami played with last season would help put Parker in positions to win based on his excellent athletic abilities. At least this would happen more often than it would on the majority of teams in the league. However, this may also keep him from getting the consistent reps he needs in a pro-style attack to get himself wrapped around the nuanced parts of the game. He needs those in order to reach his potential.
There is both good and bad to DeVante Parker landing with Miami. Personally, it would not be surprising to see his tenure there go either way. Yet, there is no doubt he fits the profile of the player that this passing game needed.
Philadelphia Eagles – Nelson Agholor Drafted 20th Overall
What a slam-dunk. Nelson Agholor was higher in my rankings than he was for many other analysts. What he brought to the table was a safe and reliable floor, but with plenty of excellent abilities to propel him to a very high-ceiling. A high-volume role with a smart offensive coordinator was the other ingredients he needed to make that a reality. Sure enough, Agholor received both when he landed in Philadelphia.
We’ve seen Chip Kelly craft utilization plans for both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, give them bother career years, and let them go soon after. Now, it seems he has his long-term player for that spot in Agholor. The USC receiver brings fearlessness in traffic, and ability to thrive after the catch. Neither of which any of the other current Eagles’ receivers have. He also offers the reliability, and solid technique that Chip Kelly seems to prefer out of his passing game assets. Agholor appears to have everything you look for out of good route runners are the college level, and should develop further in the at area of the game.
Do not be surprised if Agholor, a player this team highly coveted, ends up being the most productive rookie this year. He’s tailor made for the role he’ll play in the Eagles passing game, and may be one of the two or three most talented players on their offense right now. Quite honestly, he’s a better version of Jeremy Maclin.
Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman Drafted 26th Overall
If ever there was a perfect landing spot for a rookie receiver this year, it was Baltimore. Marc Trestman in town now, with fearless competent quarterback behind center, and a clear need for pass catchers. The Ravens’ new offensive coordinator needed a young, gifted player to build his passing game around. He may have just snagged one in Breshad Perriman.
Perriman is chronically criticized for drops, but he does not have bad hands. While he needs to work on timing, in relation to when he throws his mitts up, he tracks the ball well and makes routine catches with ease. The mishaps can be ironed out of his games, and are not “kiss of death” type of hands issues. Even so, the highs Perriman comes with can negate the errors. Clearly fast, he also brings quickness and fluidity to the table, which will help him develop as a route runner. I already saw signs that Perriman has good release technique, and understands how and when to utilize deception in-route. He is not nearly as raw as his reputation would suggest.
Early on in his career, Perriman can be the type of player that makes splash plays, and creates yards when given space. As a bonus, his vertical ability will help clear out room for the other less-than-impressive receivers in Baltimore’s offense. This player is an ideal fit with Joe Flacco, and could be his running mate for a very long time.
Indianapolis Colts – Phillip Dorsett Drafted 29th Overall
It took until the end of the round, but we finally had a receiver pick that I truly disliked. The Colts went with a small, speedy receiver in Phillip Dorsett, despite carrying a very similar player in T.Y. Hilton. Not that having two Hiltons is a bad thing, but I struggle to see Dorsett approaching that ceiling, due to his lack of in-air ability.
In the immediate sense, it’s hard to imagine Dorsett vaulting Andre Johnson in the pecking order, and Hilton is entrenched at the top. Can Dorsett beat out Moncrief? If so, that’s not a good sign for the latter’s development. It’s never a good sign when a pick is made that feels like a barrier for an investment made just the previous year. As a long-term asset, Dorsett lands in a nice landing spot, with a quarterback who should get him the ball down the field. Andrew Luck’s ball placement and timing may make it so that Dorsett can catch deep shots in stride, which will mask his struggles in the air. One way or another, Luck and Dorsett are going to make some beautiful music together on the highlight reels.
Despite the potential for splash plays, and being a supporter of the “you cannot overstock the cupboards for a franchise quarterback” philosophy, I just do not care for this pick. The Colts needed help in many other areas, outside of a pass catcher. If you are a supporter of forgoing need, and just taking quality players, there was a receiver who can do what Dorsett does but much better, in Devin Smith, available at he 29th pick. I struggle to envision a scenario in which Dorsett becomes an above average receiver, who regularly approaches 1,000 yards-a-season.
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