Reception Perception: The fruitless search for fatal flaws with Laquon Treadwell
By: Matt Harmon
April 27th, 2016
April 27th, 2016
Laquon Treadwell's is a great prospect whose flaws have been massively overstated (Image: Getty Images)
When something is great, eventually, we must try to tear it down. It’s one of the least endearing aspects of human nature, but all too often we put ourselves through it.
Not much exemplifies this reality better than the hyper-reactionary and inconsistent nature of the discussions on social media. The subset of that which focuses on the NFL Draft is perhaps the premiere example.
We often know who the top draft prospects at each position will be years in advance of their actual draft eligible days. Whether through high-level recruit status entering their NCAA careers, or stellar collegiate performance, we see them coming. While that gives us more time to carefully study their game, it also gives us more time to get bored with them, overthink and go searching for flaws to pick apart.
It seems that in the months leading up to the 2016 NFL Draft, many took that process all the way through with long supposed top prospect, Laquon Treadwell.
A high-level recruit with an ideal frame for the position, talent evaluators always expected Treadwell to be the top wideout whenever he entered the NFL Draft. After battling back from a horrific season-ending injury suffered in 2014 to finish his final college season with 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns, including a three score banger in the concluding contest, it looked like he wrapped it up. Yet, as the pre-draft process wore on, the community seemed to only find more reasons to push Treadwell down the board.
Does it all come back to his 4.63 40-yard dash time and a supposed lack of speed? If so, the fretting is unwarranted.
I’m not the type to just wave off the results of athletic testing. I don’t subscribe to “the eye in the sky doesn't lie” or pejorative terms like “the underwear olympics”. Utilizing composite scores for athletic tests or age-related stats help paint a range of outcomes for prospects, or what kind of margin for error they have. Laquon Treadwell’s results paint him as a prospect with a smaller margin for error than others. However, there’s something greater, a more meta misconception that seems to be hurting Treadwell in the eyes of some.
Too often, major corporations focus on the “unteachable qualities”. A potential asset with an attribute that comes only from their natural physical gifts gets the benefit of the doubt even if they carry a laundry list of flaws. With arrogance the accelerant that lights the fire, the corporation believes it can mold the potential newcomer and iron out those flaws. They believe in their teaching abilities to a fault. But even they know, no matter what, the unteachable quality is beyond their grasp.
Think of why the more attractive person goes into a major job interview with a shallow company carrying and advantage even if the opposing candidate is far and away more qualified. Whatever the latter learned in school or prior work experience, this new company assumes they can teach the former under their careful tutelage. However, the natural God-given beauty of the first applicant is something they can never hope to bestow. The company is willing to take on the flawed but beautiful hire, assuming they’ll straighten out the rest. There’s nothing the less attractive candidate can bring to the table they can’t just teach the beautiful one under their watch.
The NFL takes this same broken logic and applies it to wide receivers. Much like physical beauty, the “unteachable quality” teams fall so hard for his speed. Elevating it on its own is just as wrong and backwards as the scenario reviewed with the large corporation.
You hear it bandied about frequently in draft analysis; “you can’t teach speed.” That’s true. No amount of time in a film room, coaching session or positional meeting will make a player faster as a pure individual. However, speed is the most painfully overrated wide receiver attribute.
The idea that speed is the primary factor in creating separation and getting open, which is the most important task for a wide receiver, is a complete fallacy. It’s quite infrequent, especially at the NFL level, for a receiver to win on a route simply by blowing past the defender. Use of short area quickness, physicality and technique correlate much stronger to getting open than speed does.
Yet, again, the NFL likely believes they can mold a wide receiver to incorporate those into their game. Unlike speed, they are viewed as teachable traits. However, not only is guaranteeing the prospect learns how to use short area quickness, physicality and technique to become a consistent separator another arrogance-based proposition, but knocking slower players who already have those three traits in place feels just as disingenuous.
Laquon Treadwell is set to be just another in a long line of players that erases concerns about a lack of speed with excellent use of the three components of separation at the NFL level. Despite his 4.63 40-yard dash, there is no doubt he’ll get open routinely as a professional.
Not much exemplifies this reality better than the hyper-reactionary and inconsistent nature of the discussions on social media. The subset of that which focuses on the NFL Draft is perhaps the premiere example.
We often know who the top draft prospects at each position will be years in advance of their actual draft eligible days. Whether through high-level recruit status entering their NCAA careers, or stellar collegiate performance, we see them coming. While that gives us more time to carefully study their game, it also gives us more time to get bored with them, overthink and go searching for flaws to pick apart.
It seems that in the months leading up to the 2016 NFL Draft, many took that process all the way through with long supposed top prospect, Laquon Treadwell.
A high-level recruit with an ideal frame for the position, talent evaluators always expected Treadwell to be the top wideout whenever he entered the NFL Draft. After battling back from a horrific season-ending injury suffered in 2014 to finish his final college season with 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns, including a three score banger in the concluding contest, it looked like he wrapped it up. Yet, as the pre-draft process wore on, the community seemed to only find more reasons to push Treadwell down the board.
Does it all come back to his 4.63 40-yard dash time and a supposed lack of speed? If so, the fretting is unwarranted.
I’m not the type to just wave off the results of athletic testing. I don’t subscribe to “the eye in the sky doesn't lie” or pejorative terms like “the underwear olympics”. Utilizing composite scores for athletic tests or age-related stats help paint a range of outcomes for prospects, or what kind of margin for error they have. Laquon Treadwell’s results paint him as a prospect with a smaller margin for error than others. However, there’s something greater, a more meta misconception that seems to be hurting Treadwell in the eyes of some.
Too often, major corporations focus on the “unteachable qualities”. A potential asset with an attribute that comes only from their natural physical gifts gets the benefit of the doubt even if they carry a laundry list of flaws. With arrogance the accelerant that lights the fire, the corporation believes it can mold the potential newcomer and iron out those flaws. They believe in their teaching abilities to a fault. But even they know, no matter what, the unteachable quality is beyond their grasp.
Think of why the more attractive person goes into a major job interview with a shallow company carrying and advantage even if the opposing candidate is far and away more qualified. Whatever the latter learned in school or prior work experience, this new company assumes they can teach the former under their careful tutelage. However, the natural God-given beauty of the first applicant is something they can never hope to bestow. The company is willing to take on the flawed but beautiful hire, assuming they’ll straighten out the rest. There’s nothing the less attractive candidate can bring to the table they can’t just teach the beautiful one under their watch.
The NFL takes this same broken logic and applies it to wide receivers. Much like physical beauty, the “unteachable quality” teams fall so hard for his speed. Elevating it on its own is just as wrong and backwards as the scenario reviewed with the large corporation.
You hear it bandied about frequently in draft analysis; “you can’t teach speed.” That’s true. No amount of time in a film room, coaching session or positional meeting will make a player faster as a pure individual. However, speed is the most painfully overrated wide receiver attribute.
The idea that speed is the primary factor in creating separation and getting open, which is the most important task for a wide receiver, is a complete fallacy. It’s quite infrequent, especially at the NFL level, for a receiver to win on a route simply by blowing past the defender. Use of short area quickness, physicality and technique correlate much stronger to getting open than speed does.
Yet, again, the NFL likely believes they can mold a wide receiver to incorporate those into their game. Unlike speed, they are viewed as teachable traits. However, not only is guaranteeing the prospect learns how to use short area quickness, physicality and technique to become a consistent separator another arrogance-based proposition, but knocking slower players who already have those three traits in place feels just as disingenuous.
Laquon Treadwell is set to be just another in a long line of players that erases concerns about a lack of speed with excellent use of the three components of separation at the NFL level. Despite his 4.63 40-yard dash, there is no doubt he’ll get open routinely as a professional.
Treadwell’s route percentage charts looks much like your typical NFL target hog. 69.2 percent his 211 routes charted over his Reception Perception sample were either slant, curl or nine routes.
Before we default to the typical “doesn’t run the full route tree” critique, remember that many high-end top receivers in the NFL primary run these three routes. Players like Allen Robinson, Dez Bryant or Julio Jones frequently go out on these patterns as their teams focus on just putting them in favorable positions to beat the defender and make plays.
While he’s not the pure athlete those three are, Treadwell’s game and build compare favorably to that trio. His high use on slant routes makes complete sense, as his ability after the catch never gets the due credit it should. Treadwell was out “in space” on 12.8 percent of his routes, breaking a single tackle on 51.9 percent of those attempts and multiple tackles on 14.8 percent. Tread well combines strength, a bully’s mindset and good stop-start ability to make big plays with the ball in his hands. His NFL team will look to assign him some of same route inventory in order to create those situations.
The only other route that Treadwell ran at a rate above the class average was the “other” category. Much of Treadwell’s use here came on end zone fades, which along with improvisational routes comprises the “other” group. At 6’2 and over 220 pounds with a banger mentality, Treadwell profiles as a red zone threat. He backs that up on the field with a 75 percent contested catch conversion rate, the second best among the prospects charted for Reception Perception. As long as he lands in the right offense an paired with a strong quarterback, Treadwell should score eight to 12 touchdowns on a regular basis as an NFL player.
Before we default to the typical “doesn’t run the full route tree” critique, remember that many high-end top receivers in the NFL primary run these three routes. Players like Allen Robinson, Dez Bryant or Julio Jones frequently go out on these patterns as their teams focus on just putting them in favorable positions to beat the defender and make plays.
While he’s not the pure athlete those three are, Treadwell’s game and build compare favorably to that trio. His high use on slant routes makes complete sense, as his ability after the catch never gets the due credit it should. Treadwell was out “in space” on 12.8 percent of his routes, breaking a single tackle on 51.9 percent of those attempts and multiple tackles on 14.8 percent. Tread well combines strength, a bully’s mindset and good stop-start ability to make big plays with the ball in his hands. His NFL team will look to assign him some of same route inventory in order to create those situations.
The only other route that Treadwell ran at a rate above the class average was the “other” category. Much of Treadwell’s use here came on end zone fades, which along with improvisational routes comprises the “other” group. At 6’2 and over 220 pounds with a banger mentality, Treadwell profiles as a red zone threat. He backs that up on the field with a 75 percent contested catch conversion rate, the second best among the prospects charted for Reception Perception. As long as he lands in the right offense an paired with a strong quarterback, Treadwell should score eight to 12 touchdowns on a regular basis as an NFL player.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
More proof that speed is overrated: Treadwell posted an above average success rate vs. coverage score on all three of the downfield routes—the post, nine and corner. The player with 4.63 speed wins downfield. Being a vertical threat is just as much about deception and the receiver’s work within the first ten yards of a route as it is about running fast. Treadwell routinely wins off the line against press coverage, and doesn’t tip his routes. In fact, he sells the defender on the idea he’s stay shallow before shuttling downfield. He utilizes that same deception with the subtle head fakes to send a corner one way before breaking the opposite direction to earn separation.
While he’ll get the possession label, there’s no reason Treadwell can’t help his offense pick up chunk plays too. He’s not the fastest receiver, not even close. But he’s ready made as a technician to be a downfield threat.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Treadwell posted above average SRVC scores on the two routes he ran most often. Treadwell’s 84.1 percent SRVC and 33 PTS on slants were some of the highest scores among the charted prospects. He’s agile enough to make the necessary sharp cut in-field to create amble separation on this route, putting him in pristine position to break tackles.
Treadwell's curl route scores were also among the best in the class. His 78.8 SRVC exemplifies some of the subtle nuances to his route-running acumen that often go unnoticed. Just as he sells a shallow route intention when he intends to go vertical, Treadwell works in the inverse just as well. He makes a sharp cut back to the quarterback along the boundaries while fooling the corner into believing he needs to continue the defense down the field. The curl route also affords him chances to play some bully-ball. Here Treadwell can use his physical edge to shield a defender from the incoming pass, and leave his feet with timely jumps to win a contested catch.
Carrying at best average speed, Treadwell still got open at every level of the field. Being a dedicated craftsmen and using short area quickness, physicality and technique regularly was how Treadwell succeeded at the college level. Doing so at just 20 years old and returning from a major injury in his final season is an impressive feather in his cap.
While he’ll get the possession label, there’s no reason Treadwell can’t help his offense pick up chunk plays too. He’s not the fastest receiver, not even close. But he’s ready made as a technician to be a downfield threat.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Treadwell posted above average SRVC scores on the two routes he ran most often. Treadwell’s 84.1 percent SRVC and 33 PTS on slants were some of the highest scores among the charted prospects. He’s agile enough to make the necessary sharp cut in-field to create amble separation on this route, putting him in pristine position to break tackles.
Treadwell's curl route scores were also among the best in the class. His 78.8 SRVC exemplifies some of the subtle nuances to his route-running acumen that often go unnoticed. Just as he sells a shallow route intention when he intends to go vertical, Treadwell works in the inverse just as well. He makes a sharp cut back to the quarterback along the boundaries while fooling the corner into believing he needs to continue the defense down the field. The curl route also affords him chances to play some bully-ball. Here Treadwell can use his physical edge to shield a defender from the incoming pass, and leave his feet with timely jumps to win a contested catch.
Carrying at best average speed, Treadwell still got open at every level of the field. Being a dedicated craftsmen and using short area quickness, physicality and technique regularly was how Treadwell succeeded at the college level. Doing so at just 20 years old and returning from a major injury in his final season is an impressive feather in his cap.
As mentioned at the onset of this study, the evaluation world long expected Laquon Treadwell to be the top receiver in his draft class when he entered the NFL. Now this is just a working theory on my end, but I think that early crowning causes some to stop looking for nuance in a players game. We mine late rounders and even just second-tier players to pass them through route running and technique filters when scouting, but it appears that we don’t bother doing so for the previously anointed because we already decided they are good. It’s one of the only reasons I can imagine as to why we don’t see Treadwell’s route running universally praised as some of the best in the class.
Of course that doesn't stop from the endless pursuit of flaws, and some in the scouting community seemed to dig up a few for Treadwell over the past few months, especially in regards to his ability to separate. A quick look at his SRVC scores shows those areas of concerns are simply unfounded.
Treadwell’s 74.6 percent SRVC against man was the third best score in the class, while his 70.7 percent SRVC against press was a top-seven mark. Bringing a diversified set of moves to earn a free release, with his physical edge the icing on the cake, Treadwell is a tough task to jam at the line of scrimmage. He mixes in a variety of skills to work free from man coverage.
His SRVC scores are indicative of a high-end NFL receiver. A player who can command a heavy target load, and routinely win against a variety of cornerbacks. Someone who can take over games to vault his team to victories.
Between his tremendous scores across all areas of Reception Perception—breaking tackles “in space”, contested catch conversion rate, success rate vs. coverage—the search for a fatal flaw that will hold Treadwell back from great NFL success proved futile. While his poor athletic testing reminds us the margin for error might bring some caution, his on-field dominance at a young age and technical prowess give strong evidence he can squeak through those slight margins.
Laquon Treadwell is the top wide receiver prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft to me, and every piece of his Reception Perception evaluation provides a firm ground to stand on. Now, I like several players right along with him at the top of this crop, and generally find debates revolving around “who is your No. 1” to be utterly frivolous. If I like Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and more does it really matter who I arbitrarily decide to put first? I’d assert a firm no.
If another evaluator places another prospect, be it Doctson, Corey Coleman or Sterling Shepard, above Treadwell, there’s good reason for it. All of four of these prospects bring some excellent abilities to the table.
The only foolish move would be to pretend that Laquon Treadwell carries some kind of fatal flaw that will hinder his path to NFL success. Reception Perception revealed that Treadwell’s path is quite clear. Expect him to barrel through it with a physical edge, just as he did in college, and knock back the doubts of those who lost sight of the nuanced greatness he displayed all along.
Are you interested in learning more about Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar with upcoming publications, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
Of course that doesn't stop from the endless pursuit of flaws, and some in the scouting community seemed to dig up a few for Treadwell over the past few months, especially in regards to his ability to separate. A quick look at his SRVC scores shows those areas of concerns are simply unfounded.
Treadwell’s 74.6 percent SRVC against man was the third best score in the class, while his 70.7 percent SRVC against press was a top-seven mark. Bringing a diversified set of moves to earn a free release, with his physical edge the icing on the cake, Treadwell is a tough task to jam at the line of scrimmage. He mixes in a variety of skills to work free from man coverage.
His SRVC scores are indicative of a high-end NFL receiver. A player who can command a heavy target load, and routinely win against a variety of cornerbacks. Someone who can take over games to vault his team to victories.
Between his tremendous scores across all areas of Reception Perception—breaking tackles “in space”, contested catch conversion rate, success rate vs. coverage—the search for a fatal flaw that will hold Treadwell back from great NFL success proved futile. While his poor athletic testing reminds us the margin for error might bring some caution, his on-field dominance at a young age and technical prowess give strong evidence he can squeak through those slight margins.
Laquon Treadwell is the top wide receiver prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft to me, and every piece of his Reception Perception evaluation provides a firm ground to stand on. Now, I like several players right along with him at the top of this crop, and generally find debates revolving around “who is your No. 1” to be utterly frivolous. If I like Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and more does it really matter who I arbitrarily decide to put first? I’d assert a firm no.
If another evaluator places another prospect, be it Doctson, Corey Coleman or Sterling Shepard, above Treadwell, there’s good reason for it. All of four of these prospects bring some excellent abilities to the table.
The only foolish move would be to pretend that Laquon Treadwell carries some kind of fatal flaw that will hinder his path to NFL success. Reception Perception revealed that Treadwell’s path is quite clear. Expect him to barrel through it with a physical edge, just as he did in college, and knock back the doubts of those who lost sight of the nuanced greatness he displayed all along.
Are you interested in learning more about Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar with upcoming publications, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
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