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    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 54: Kyle Crabbs - Build my own chair at the table
    • The Backyard Banter Podcast Episode 53: James Koh - Divorce the information from emotion
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    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 28: We''l see you in a bit.
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    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 26: Mail Satchel - Davante Adams debate & "friends of the show"
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 25: NFL Network's Top 100 Players This or That
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 24: Mail Satchel - Surviving without Charlie and Tight Ends to Watch
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 23: Jeremy Maclin reaction, news recap and did Harmon pull off that hat?
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 22: Mail satchel - WE ARE THE PODCAST OF THE PEOPLE
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 21: Reception Perception review of sleepers, breakouts and surprises
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 20: Evan Silva destroys our MFL10 hopes and dreams
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 19: Mail satchel - Will Brandon Marshall thrive with the Giants in 2017?
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    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 6: Valuing Jordan Howard for 2017 and NFL Draft rookie big board part 2
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 5: NFL Draft rookie top-12 big board and in-depth beer interview
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 4: Kaepernick saga, Harmon shaves his beard and Franchise gets roasted
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast Episode 3: Eddie Lacy, Free Agency, music & beer and picking best QB roommate
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 2: Early Free Agency Fallout, Combine Standouts & Mailbag
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast - Episode 1: NFL Scouting Combine preview and washed vets
    • Fantasy Hipsters Podcast: Teaser episode introduction
  • Reception Perception: 2017
    • Reception Perception: Investigating any correlation between the results and draft prospect age
  • The 2016 Reception Perception Project
    • Reception Perception: 11 flags planted for the 2016 season
    • Reception Perception: Nelson Agholor can bounce-back in Doug Pederson's offense
    • Reception Perception: Improved technician Donte Moncrief is set to explode in 2016
    • Reception Perception: Only one concern can hold Sammy Watkins back from his ceiling
    • Reception Perception: Bruce Ellington has a chance to flash this season with the 49ers
    • Reception Perception: Albert Wilson and the Diary of a Truther
    • Reception Perception: Willie Snead built an impressive resume we must not ignore
    • Reception Perception: Welcome the ascending Tyler Lockett to rarified status
    • Reception Perception: Kamar Aiken is the answer to the Ravens receiver riddle
    • Reception Perception: DeSean Jackson and Josh Doctson make the Washington wide receivers a strength
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    • Reception Perception: Target and Contested Catch Data for Sophomore WRs
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    • Reception Perception: Why we Must Consider the Entire Range of Outcomes for Sammy Watkins
    • Reception Perception: Data Results from Year 1
    • Reception Perception: Scanning Through the Dolphins Receiving Corps for Fantasy Answers
    • Reception Perception: Allen Robinson is Quietly on the Precipice of a Massive Breakout
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    • Reception Perception: How Kevin White Began His Ascension to the Top
    • Reception Perception: Sammie Coates Falls Along a Dangerous Archetype
    • Reception Perception: A Video Rundown of the Data
    • Reception Perception: New Browns Receiver Dwayne Bowe Bring Value to a Depleted Pass Game
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    • Reception Perception: Andre Johnson Still has Plenty Left to Offer the Colts
    • Reception Perception: Randall Cobb Made the Right Call Sticking With the Packers
    • Reception Perception: Where Do We Go From Here, Percy Harvin?
    • Reception Perception: Devin Smith and The Value of a Trump Card (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: The Siren Song of Dorial Green-Beckham (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Impending Free Agent Michael Crabtree
    • Reception Perception: Amari Cooper Under the Microscope (FBG)
    • Reception Perception: Sammy Watkins and Cordarrelle Patterson
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Reception Perception: Nelson Agholor can bounce back in Doug Pederson's offense

By: Matt Harmon
​August 5th, 2016
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Nelson Agholor has the route-running skills to rebound from a poor rookie season in Doug Pederson's offense (Image: Philly.com)
After going 20th overall in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, Nelson Agholor did not exactly get off to a hot start with the Eagles. Agholor played the third most snaps of any rookie receiver last year but produced just 23 receptions and 283 yards while scoring only once. The Eagles offense finally fell apart in Chip Kelly’s final year as the head coach, careening to a 25th ranking in Football Outsiders DVOA, and Agholor didn’t do much to alleviate the issues. 

It was a disappointing start for a draft prospect who was truly dynamic in his final year at USC and had many fans in the draft community. One of those believers was yours truly. I had Agholor as my fourth ranked receiver coming into the 2015 NFL Draft and believed he was a Golden Tate-type of asset. He looked like a player that could grow into the role Jeremy Maclin vacated when he bolted for Kansas City in free agency. The raw numbers show he wasn't ready to assume that position as a rookie. 

One of Kelly’s biggest downfalls as a team-builder was the belief he seemingly held that he could just cycle X-receivers in and out and get identical production out of them. After DeSean Jackson and Maclin had career years in that role, Agholor put an end to that theory. 

With just a casual glance at some of Reception Perception’s main metrics, it would seem the series also backs-up the assertion that Agholor’s rookie year showed no promise whatsoever. The rookie checked in with a 61.4 percent success rate vs. man coverage and a 62.2 percent rate when facing press. Both scores are below the league average and speak to the trouble he had executing as the team’s primary X-receiver. 

While you can’t brush off those figures as both are critical in how the series evaluates receivers, Philadelphia didn’t do Agholor any favors with the degree of difficulty surrounding the task they assigned him. ESPN’s Mike Clay observed that Agholor often had to do battle with the opposing team’s No. 1 cornerback, many of whom happened to be among the best in the NFL:

89% of Nelson Agholor's routes have come against the below group. Brutal, brutal schedule #Eagles #EaglesTalk pic.twitter.com/9zxtMfvKqL

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 29, 2015
​It was clear Agholor just wasn’t ready to handle the burden of going against these difficult matches week-in-and-week-out. He recorded a reception on a mere 5.5 percent of the 256 routes he ran in his Reception Perception sample. 

While those metrics don’t help alleviate any concerns brought on by Nelson Agholor’s poor statics as a rookie, a deeper dive into his route-by-route data does lead us to potential optimism.
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A whopping 65.6 percent of the 256 routes Nelson Agholor ran in his Reception Perception sample were either a slant, post, curl or dig. These sharp cut and in-breaking patterns were some of the routes that fit the skill set many found appealing with him as a draft prospect.

Agholor is a quick-twitch player who uses disciplined technique integrated with agility at the stem of routes to flash open. Those skills did not evaporate when he got to NFL level. 
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(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Nelson Agholor’s best success rate vs. coverage scores came on those routes he was assigned most often, outside of the nine-route. Agholor posted an abysmal 39.6 percent success rate vs. coverage score on this pattern, proving incapable as a first-year player of being the deep threat that Maclin and Jackson were for Chip Kelly in previous seasons. 

However, this is an important juncture where we must note that Agholor reportedly suffered a high-ankle sprain at midseason and then played on it the rest of the year. This matches up with what he put on game film. Agholor still showed the same technical detail in his routes but looked noticeably less explosive as a rookie. 

Outside of that one pattern, Agholor scored quite well on the routes he ran most often. His success rate vs. coverage scores on slants, curls, digs and posts were all well above the league average for each pattern. 

Agholor’s success rate on slants (82.8) and posts (80) are particularly encouraging. Even while operating at less than 100 percent health, Agholor still showed that ability to set defenders up with craft and shake loose at the stem of routes. If he’s in better condition without a damaged ankle this coming season, he could make more big plays on those routes. 

His success rate on curls (80) and digs (76.2) in addition to slants are also nice to see considering the change in Philadelphia’s coaching staff. While playing for Andy Reid and new Eagles’ head coach Doug Pederson in Kansas City the last three seasons, Alex Smith posted average depth of aim throw (via Pro Football Focus) figures of 6.8, 6.0 and 6.9, the lowest among starting quarterbacks each year. The short passing game will be at a premium in the Eagles offense this season more so than in Chip Kelly’s scheme. 

The West Coast offense that Pederson and his mentor Reid employee is predicted on emphasizing timing-based, quick strike in-breaking routes from the wide receivers. Looking at Reception Perception favorite and current Chiefs receiver Albert Wilson’s route percentage chart we seen more optimism for Agholor.
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Of the 199 route Wilson ran in his 2015 Reception Perception sample 57.8 percent of them were slants, curls, digs and posts. Again, those are the routes Nelson Agholor showed best at in his sample. 

The fact that Agholor will seemingly be in an offense that assigns its wideouts the routes he's best at is a good sign for his future projection. Especially if he’s more comfortable, healthier and faces something easier than the murder’s row of cornerback battles he faced last year, Agholor could enjoy a fine bounce back season as a second-year player. 

Given Pederson and Reid’s tendencies in Kansas City and some of the questions behind center, the new Eagles’ passing offense doesn't project to be particularly voluminous or robust, so perhaps Agholor won’t pump up the stat sheets. However, with Jordan Matthews pigeonholed as primarily a slot receiver there’s room for one of these outside wideouts to step up. Agholor has a chance to make a bigger impact than many assume after a slow start to his rookie career.

It would be nice to see Agholor actually build some momentum in the offseason after spending much of the down time with legal issues, that he was eventually not charged with, hanging over his head. However, a deep dive into his Reception Perception metrics as a rookie reveals there is still more than enough reason to hope for a rebound from the former first-round pick. ​

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