Reception Perception: Context and Conclusions from Sammy Watkins and Cordarrelle Patterson’s Similarities
By: Matt Harmon
January 29, 2015
January 29, 2015
Sammy Watkins' Reception Perception numbers from 2014 raise some questions about him and his future (Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
I am currently knee deep in the charting for the publication of the 2015 Reception Perception Project. Therefore, most of my Twitter feed has been dedicated to the dispensing of observations I’m making in real time. However, I’d like to take some time, in this space, to expand on one of my rambles.
I just finished up on Bills’ rookie receiver, Sammy Watkins, this week and was a tad surprised by the results. It’s understandable to view Watkins’ rookie season as a disappointment: in light of the otherworldly success of fellow rookie Odell Beckham Jr., and the sustained production of Mike Evans. It didn’t help that many observers disapproved of the Bills giving up some steep draft capital to secure Watkins. Those are extraneous factors, and don’t have much to do with Watkins himself. Normally, no one would turn their nose up at 982 yards and six scores from a rookie wideout.
Personally, I expected to chart Watkins and find his Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC) scores to be favorable. The popular belief was that mediocre quarterback play dampened Watkins’ production. While that is certainly the case, Reception Perception reveals that there were some inconsistencies and issues in Watkins’ individual game as a rookie.
After going through an eight game sample, Sammy Watkins achieved a SRVC against man score of 49.5%. That means corners blanketed him more often than he beat them in one-on-one coverage. A score in the 40 to 50 percent range is below optimal. To draw a comparison for Watkins’ numbers, Cordarrelle Patterson also scored a 49.5% SRVC against man in his rookie season. Yes, the much-maligned Patterson and the glorified Watkins scored identically in this portion of a Reception Perception eight-game sample of their rookie seasons. As pure athletes there are a ton of similarities between the two. Perhaps, as this data indicates, they are even more similar than that.
Rewind to July of 2014. Cordarrelle Patterson was one of two receivers featured in the original Reception Perception articles. That is where the 49.5% SRVC against man figure comes from. In that article, I used that number, and many others to project big things in Patterson’s future. The limited tape, Patterson’s shining moments and his natural talent convinced me that the breakout was coming sooner than later. Obviously, nothing of the sort happened for Patterson in a disastrous second season. He struggled to pick up plays, or develop further to increase his ability to separate in coverage. Truthfully, Patterson regressed with more on his plate, and the coaching staff responded by cutting his snaps. I’ve learned a lot since that time, and refined my process accordingly.
So is Sammy Watkins destined to follow in Cordarrelle Patterson’s disappointing footsteps due to their identical SRVC score? Not necessarily, but there are some lessons to learn here.
First, let’s dig a little further beyond the face value similarities in their SRVC score. Part of what makes Reception Perception a complete methodology for evaluating wide receivers is the context each data point brings to another. I like to say that going over the full data sheet is akin to watching the story of a receiver’s game or season being weaved together.
Cordarrelle Patterson wasn’t heavily involved in the Vikings 2013 offense until the end of the season. Six of the eight-game sample for his Reception Perception study came in the latter half of that season. Even then, he only ran 183 routes in those games, and faced man coverage on 109 of those routes. Sammy Watkins was the Bills’ top offensive weapon in 2014, and his work provides a much better sample size. Watkins ran 297 routes, and faced man coverage 206 times in his eight-game Reception Perception sample.
There is also the matter of their route percentages. Patterson frequently ran the post (19.4%) and nine routes (15.3%). Watkins, on the other hand, ran a fair amount of slants (18.2%) and comebacks (13.8%) to go along with a very high use on nine routes (20.9%). How infrequently the Bills dialed up plays of the “just get the ball in his hands” variety for Watkins startled me. He was more or less asked to be a pro wideout from day one, where as Patterson was still a bit player during his Reception Perception study. The 49.5% SRVC against man score does illustrate that Watkins did not always answer the bell with that task. Yet, the rest of the data illustrates just how much more he was asked to do than Patterson.
It’s also crucial to remember that Watkins was not healthy last season. He was consistently on the injury report, and I noticed him clearly hobbling in multiple games (the Chiefs game stuck out). These sort of things are not reflected in Reception Perception’s data, but they do have an effect on the final numbers.
The true learning experience from Sammy Watkins’ Reception Perception numbers may be found in how we scouted him last draft season. Many, myself included, saw Watkins as a top-5 prospect, and a receiver ready to dominate the league. I know that I was able to get past the fact he played in a very simplified passing offense at Clemson. And I believe many of my colleagues in the draft world did the same. Watkins showed very convincing flashed that he could beat NFL type of coverage with route running. However, he was not asked to do so on a consistent basis.
Perhaps we should have worried a bit more about Watkins’ “readiness” as a draft prospect. No matter how strong of a projection it may have seemed, any thought that he would be a strong route runner at the NFL level anytime soon was a projection nonetheless. Some of those issues, along with health, are reflected in his poor Success Rate Versus Man Coverage score.
Sammy Watkins is not destined to follow Cordarrelle Patterson’s downward path to a poor second NFL season. In fact, there are plenty of ways to talk yourself into why he’ll be better. However, Reception Perception’s data is at least preaching some caution.
The safe bet is that Watkins will be the third best receiver from the 2014 rookie class, after Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans, based on what we saw during the season. Given a highly concerning quarterback, and coaching situation, betting on that reality from a fantasy standpoint is an even stronger wager. The talent to transcend all of that is still within Watkins. Reception Perception just reminds us we did not see it on a consistent basis as a rookie.
Are you interested in learning more Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar about the upcoming publication, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
1/31/2015 Add on:
My Footballguys colleague, Ari Ingel (who is a great follow on Twitter - @FFesq) pointed out that Sammy Watkins, being a number one receiver, would face much tougher defensive matchups than Cordarrelle Patterson did. He is right, and that certainly contributed to his 49.5% SRVC against man. Ari pointed out that Watkins games against Darrelle Revis must have been rough on the rookie. Again, Ari is on the ball. Only one of Watkins' matchups with the Patriots All-Pro cornerback was included in his eight game sample, but it was a major struggle. Here are Watkins coverage scores from that game:
I just finished up on Bills’ rookie receiver, Sammy Watkins, this week and was a tad surprised by the results. It’s understandable to view Watkins’ rookie season as a disappointment: in light of the otherworldly success of fellow rookie Odell Beckham Jr., and the sustained production of Mike Evans. It didn’t help that many observers disapproved of the Bills giving up some steep draft capital to secure Watkins. Those are extraneous factors, and don’t have much to do with Watkins himself. Normally, no one would turn their nose up at 982 yards and six scores from a rookie wideout.
Personally, I expected to chart Watkins and find his Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC) scores to be favorable. The popular belief was that mediocre quarterback play dampened Watkins’ production. While that is certainly the case, Reception Perception reveals that there were some inconsistencies and issues in Watkins’ individual game as a rookie.
After going through an eight game sample, Sammy Watkins achieved a SRVC against man score of 49.5%. That means corners blanketed him more often than he beat them in one-on-one coverage. A score in the 40 to 50 percent range is below optimal. To draw a comparison for Watkins’ numbers, Cordarrelle Patterson also scored a 49.5% SRVC against man in his rookie season. Yes, the much-maligned Patterson and the glorified Watkins scored identically in this portion of a Reception Perception eight-game sample of their rookie seasons. As pure athletes there are a ton of similarities between the two. Perhaps, as this data indicates, they are even more similar than that.
Rewind to July of 2014. Cordarrelle Patterson was one of two receivers featured in the original Reception Perception articles. That is where the 49.5% SRVC against man figure comes from. In that article, I used that number, and many others to project big things in Patterson’s future. The limited tape, Patterson’s shining moments and his natural talent convinced me that the breakout was coming sooner than later. Obviously, nothing of the sort happened for Patterson in a disastrous second season. He struggled to pick up plays, or develop further to increase his ability to separate in coverage. Truthfully, Patterson regressed with more on his plate, and the coaching staff responded by cutting his snaps. I’ve learned a lot since that time, and refined my process accordingly.
So is Sammy Watkins destined to follow in Cordarrelle Patterson’s disappointing footsteps due to their identical SRVC score? Not necessarily, but there are some lessons to learn here.
First, let’s dig a little further beyond the face value similarities in their SRVC score. Part of what makes Reception Perception a complete methodology for evaluating wide receivers is the context each data point brings to another. I like to say that going over the full data sheet is akin to watching the story of a receiver’s game or season being weaved together.
Cordarrelle Patterson wasn’t heavily involved in the Vikings 2013 offense until the end of the season. Six of the eight-game sample for his Reception Perception study came in the latter half of that season. Even then, he only ran 183 routes in those games, and faced man coverage on 109 of those routes. Sammy Watkins was the Bills’ top offensive weapon in 2014, and his work provides a much better sample size. Watkins ran 297 routes, and faced man coverage 206 times in his eight-game Reception Perception sample.
There is also the matter of their route percentages. Patterson frequently ran the post (19.4%) and nine routes (15.3%). Watkins, on the other hand, ran a fair amount of slants (18.2%) and comebacks (13.8%) to go along with a very high use on nine routes (20.9%). How infrequently the Bills dialed up plays of the “just get the ball in his hands” variety for Watkins startled me. He was more or less asked to be a pro wideout from day one, where as Patterson was still a bit player during his Reception Perception study. The 49.5% SRVC against man score does illustrate that Watkins did not always answer the bell with that task. Yet, the rest of the data illustrates just how much more he was asked to do than Patterson.
It’s also crucial to remember that Watkins was not healthy last season. He was consistently on the injury report, and I noticed him clearly hobbling in multiple games (the Chiefs game stuck out). These sort of things are not reflected in Reception Perception’s data, but they do have an effect on the final numbers.
The true learning experience from Sammy Watkins’ Reception Perception numbers may be found in how we scouted him last draft season. Many, myself included, saw Watkins as a top-5 prospect, and a receiver ready to dominate the league. I know that I was able to get past the fact he played in a very simplified passing offense at Clemson. And I believe many of my colleagues in the draft world did the same. Watkins showed very convincing flashed that he could beat NFL type of coverage with route running. However, he was not asked to do so on a consistent basis.
Perhaps we should have worried a bit more about Watkins’ “readiness” as a draft prospect. No matter how strong of a projection it may have seemed, any thought that he would be a strong route runner at the NFL level anytime soon was a projection nonetheless. Some of those issues, along with health, are reflected in his poor Success Rate Versus Man Coverage score.
Sammy Watkins is not destined to follow Cordarrelle Patterson’s downward path to a poor second NFL season. In fact, there are plenty of ways to talk yourself into why he’ll be better. However, Reception Perception’s data is at least preaching some caution.
The safe bet is that Watkins will be the third best receiver from the 2014 rookie class, after Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans, based on what we saw during the season. Given a highly concerning quarterback, and coaching situation, betting on that reality from a fantasy standpoint is an even stronger wager. The talent to transcend all of that is still within Watkins. Reception Perception just reminds us we did not see it on a consistent basis as a rookie.
Are you interested in learning more Reception Perception, and seeing more players’ data? Be sure to become familiar about the upcoming publication, and follow the #ReceptionPerception hashtag on Twitter to keep up with all future featured receivers (including draft prospects).
1/31/2015 Add on:
My Footballguys colleague, Ari Ingel (who is a great follow on Twitter - @FFesq) pointed out that Sammy Watkins, being a number one receiver, would face much tougher defensive matchups than Cordarrelle Patterson did. He is right, and that certainly contributed to his 49.5% SRVC against man. Ari pointed out that Watkins games against Darrelle Revis must have been rough on the rookie. Again, Ari is on the ball. Only one of Watkins' matchups with the Patriots All-Pro cornerback was included in his eight game sample, but it was a major struggle. Here are Watkins coverage scores from that game:
Sammy Watkins' 27.3% SRVC against man is by far the lowest figure of that variety recored since I began using the Reception Perception methodology. There is no doubt that single game was a major reason why the Bills' rookie had a similar number to Patterson. I still feel the number paints an accurate picture of Watkins' season, but this is an important data point to make readers aware of.
At this time, there is no way to effectively add weight to a receiver's wins or losses against stronger competition at the cornerback spot. I've heard suggestions, but none that I feel would work with Reception Perception. I cannot use someone else's analysis on the cornerbacks, because that would taint my own process and methodology. The only way to do a cornerback weight any justice would be if I went through and put the cornerbacks through the same process as the receivers. Let's not even get into how much time that would add to an already lengthy process. And again, Reception Perception is all about the individual wide receiver's game and performance. All other variables are meant to be stripped away. For now, its a variable that is not reflected in the numbers, but something that I will remember to point out in my analysis, when applicable. The Watkins vs. Revis point was one that should have been mentioned in this article. Thanks to Ari for doing so in this instance.
Update: since the publishing of this piece, I've talked more extensively about Sammy Watkins' Reception Perception data and how we should use it to project his play going forward.
At this time, there is no way to effectively add weight to a receiver's wins or losses against stronger competition at the cornerback spot. I've heard suggestions, but none that I feel would work with Reception Perception. I cannot use someone else's analysis on the cornerbacks, because that would taint my own process and methodology. The only way to do a cornerback weight any justice would be if I went through and put the cornerbacks through the same process as the receivers. Let's not even get into how much time that would add to an already lengthy process. And again, Reception Perception is all about the individual wide receiver's game and performance. All other variables are meant to be stripped away. For now, its a variable that is not reflected in the numbers, but something that I will remember to point out in my analysis, when applicable. The Watkins vs. Revis point was one that should have been mentioned in this article. Thanks to Ari for doing so in this instance.
Update: since the publishing of this piece, I've talked more extensively about Sammy Watkins' Reception Perception data and how we should use it to project his play going forward.
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