Reception Perception: The changing variables for Torrey Smith point to a rebound
By: Matt Harmon
April 16th, 2016
April 16th, 2016
All signs point to Torrey Smith rebounding from a 33-catch season in 2015 (Image: Gene J. Puskar, Associated Press)
The NFL world can be quite reactionary. This reality is even more pronounced when observed through the lens of fantasy football. Once productive players watch their Average Draft Position sink after a down season, even if the fault does not lay at the feet of the individual.
Football players, more so than any other sport, are incredibly dependent on other variables to accumulate raw production. A running back needs the offensive line to open holes for him to gain yardage. The wide receiver requires a quarterback to throw him a reasonably accurate pass at the proper time to get the credit in the stat sheets for running a crafty route to get open. Quarterbacks are the engine that makes an offense go, but even their odds for statistical success increases with strong blocking and talented weapons.
In-depth observation-based process and careful analytic retooling can help take the evaluation process beyond raw numbers and divorce the player’s quality from the other variables. Yet, for production, and especially in terms of a skill position player accumulating fantasy points, there is simply no denying the influence of those variables.
However, the thing about variables is, they change.
When a player’s situation becomes altered in some way, creating a shift in those influences, the onus falls on us as observers to reimagine expectations. In no case is this exercise more important than those in which quality play from an individual was masked by a poor marriage with the other variables.
Last season, Reception Perception identified Michael Crabtree as that player. Crabtree was simply a poor fit with his quarterback in 2014, but was misidentified by the NFL at large as a player nearing the end of his career. Sure enough, he signed with the Raiders and their ascending second-year passer, and he matched his career high in receptions and touchdowns while adding in 922 yards
Once again, we return to the Bay Area to mine for a pass catcher destined for a rebound. Currently going off the board as the WR57 in early MFL10s, Torrey Smith is criminally undervalued. From a pure opportunity standpoint based on the aforementioned changing variables, it’s insane to think he would actually finish that low again.
With the departure of recent staples like Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, there are 131 vacated targets in the San Francisco offense. Of course, the 49ers could sink some high capitol into a talented wide receiver in the draft, but that still leaves more than enough room for Torrey Smith to at least double his paltry 62 targets from 2015.
The real kicker is the addition of new head coach Chip Kelly. Say what you want about Kelly’s effectiveness as the frontman of an NFL operation, but his effect on offensive skill players is undeniable. Whether you believe in his system of not, Kelly’s philosophy balloons the opportunities of all players under his watch simply by how many plays he wants to run.
Football players, more so than any other sport, are incredibly dependent on other variables to accumulate raw production. A running back needs the offensive line to open holes for him to gain yardage. The wide receiver requires a quarterback to throw him a reasonably accurate pass at the proper time to get the credit in the stat sheets for running a crafty route to get open. Quarterbacks are the engine that makes an offense go, but even their odds for statistical success increases with strong blocking and talented weapons.
In-depth observation-based process and careful analytic retooling can help take the evaluation process beyond raw numbers and divorce the player’s quality from the other variables. Yet, for production, and especially in terms of a skill position player accumulating fantasy points, there is simply no denying the influence of those variables.
However, the thing about variables is, they change.
When a player’s situation becomes altered in some way, creating a shift in those influences, the onus falls on us as observers to reimagine expectations. In no case is this exercise more important than those in which quality play from an individual was masked by a poor marriage with the other variables.
Last season, Reception Perception identified Michael Crabtree as that player. Crabtree was simply a poor fit with his quarterback in 2014, but was misidentified by the NFL at large as a player nearing the end of his career. Sure enough, he signed with the Raiders and their ascending second-year passer, and he matched his career high in receptions and touchdowns while adding in 922 yards
Once again, we return to the Bay Area to mine for a pass catcher destined for a rebound. Currently going off the board as the WR57 in early MFL10s, Torrey Smith is criminally undervalued. From a pure opportunity standpoint based on the aforementioned changing variables, it’s insane to think he would actually finish that low again.
With the departure of recent staples like Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, there are 131 vacated targets in the San Francisco offense. Of course, the 49ers could sink some high capitol into a talented wide receiver in the draft, but that still leaves more than enough room for Torrey Smith to at least double his paltry 62 targets from 2015.
The real kicker is the addition of new head coach Chip Kelly. Say what you want about Kelly’s effectiveness as the frontman of an NFL operation, but his effect on offensive skill players is undeniable. Whether you believe in his system of not, Kelly’s philosophy balloons the opportunities of all players under his watch simply by how many plays he wants to run.
In his three years with the Philadelphia Eagles, Kelly’s offenses consistently ranked among the league leaders in plays run. Even when the wheels fell off in his final year, the Eagles still finished second in the NFL in this regard.
Kelly’s approach is a stark difference from what the 49ers experienced last season, and even dating back to Jim Harbaugh’s offense. On average the last three years, Kelly’s teams ran 114 more plays per season than the 49ers. Kelly’s high-paced offense creates a rising tide for all skill position players in San Francisco, allowing for more opportunities for carries, targets and the subsequent production. While this makes forgotten assets like Bruce Ellington and DeAndre Smelter worth stashing in dynasty leagues, should this whole thing work out, Torrey Smith will undoubtedly will be the greatest beneficiary.
There is a strong precedent for the No. 1 outside receiver in Chip Kelly’s offense experiencing a boost to their career. Both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin benefitted from the effects of his attack.
Kelly’s approach is a stark difference from what the 49ers experienced last season, and even dating back to Jim Harbaugh’s offense. On average the last three years, Kelly’s teams ran 114 more plays per season than the 49ers. Kelly’s high-paced offense creates a rising tide for all skill position players in San Francisco, allowing for more opportunities for carries, targets and the subsequent production. While this makes forgotten assets like Bruce Ellington and DeAndre Smelter worth stashing in dynasty leagues, should this whole thing work out, Torrey Smith will undoubtedly will be the greatest beneficiary.
There is a strong precedent for the No. 1 outside receiver in Chip Kelly’s offense experiencing a boost to their career. Both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin benefitted from the effects of his attack.
Jackson was an effective player before Kelly’s arrival, but hit his career-best in catches, yards and touchdowns in 2013. He’s yet to approach those numbers in Washington. Maclin never broke 1,000 yards prior to playing with Kelly, and his 143 targets in 2014 were 21 more than he had at any point preceding that season.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the Eagles offense went to hell when rookie Nelson Agholor was not ready to assume that position in year one, and Kelly tried to use Josh Huff and a host of vagabond veterans there. While his mismanagement of the backfield gets most of the attention, his treatment of the X-receiver and field stretcher in his offense as interchangeable assets was Chip Kelly’s biggest gaffe as a coach to date.
Luckily a newly relocated Chip Kelly inherits a player that fits right within the archetype he succeed with in his first two years in Philadelphia. Torrey Smith should step right into the top outside position that Jackson and Maclin once manned. A role that should net him over 120 targets is just what Smith needed. In his first year after leaving Baltimore in free agency, the veteran receiver could not be happy with how infrequently he was used.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the Eagles offense went to hell when rookie Nelson Agholor was not ready to assume that position in year one, and Kelly tried to use Josh Huff and a host of vagabond veterans there. While his mismanagement of the backfield gets most of the attention, his treatment of the X-receiver and field stretcher in his offense as interchangeable assets was Chip Kelly’s biggest gaffe as a coach to date.
Luckily a newly relocated Chip Kelly inherits a player that fits right within the archetype he succeed with in his first two years in Philadelphia. Torrey Smith should step right into the top outside position that Jackson and Maclin once manned. A role that should net him over 120 targets is just what Smith needed. In his first year after leaving Baltimore in free agency, the veteran receiver could not be happy with how infrequently he was used.
(Red indicates the figure is below the charted NFL average. Green indicates it is above average)
Smith ran 216 routes over the eight games sampled for Reception Perception, and received a target on a paltry 15.3 percent of them. The league average target-per-route rate hovers around the 25 percent mark, with No. 1 receivers normally vaulting near the 30 percent or greater territory.
With Kelly’s arrival and preference for receivers of this archetype, and Boldin’s departure with no subsequent replacement, we know Smith will see an uptick in targets. As such, the raw production will follow. There is literally almost no imaginable scenario in where Smith plays all 16 games and records only 33 catches again.
Of course, when projecting opportunity, the question of player quality is always important in dividing up the chances and results to follow. Torrey Smith never quite got his production to lie together in Baltimore. He went over 1,100 yards in 2013, but scored just four times. Following that up, Smith scored 11 times in 2014, yet came away with just 767 yards. Given that his first season following a move in free agency was a total disaster from a raw numbers standpoint, it’s fair for some to question the quality of this player. However, Reception Perception provides a clear and definitive answer to the query.
With Kelly’s arrival and preference for receivers of this archetype, and Boldin’s departure with no subsequent replacement, we know Smith will see an uptick in targets. As such, the raw production will follow. There is literally almost no imaginable scenario in where Smith plays all 16 games and records only 33 catches again.
Of course, when projecting opportunity, the question of player quality is always important in dividing up the chances and results to follow. Torrey Smith never quite got his production to lie together in Baltimore. He went over 1,100 yards in 2013, but scored just four times. Following that up, Smith scored 11 times in 2014, yet came away with just 767 yards. Given that his first season following a move in free agency was a total disaster from a raw numbers standpoint, it’s fair for some to question the quality of this player. However, Reception Perception provides a clear and definitive answer to the query.
It seems that the NFL world forgot what an exceptional athlete Torrey Smith was coming out of college. Back in 2011, Smith checked in at the 82nd percentile or better in the 40-yard dash, 3-cone drill, vertical jump, broad jump and 20-yard dash among receivers tested at the combine since 1999.
As such, speed is and always was a big factor in his game, leading to a career average of 17.3 yards per reception. It should be no surprised the nine route was his highest represented pattern at 21.8 percent. The 49ers lacked a speed element in their aerial attack for years, which predicated the signing of Smith.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Smith largely ran simple patterns. The curl, slant and post are the only routes with a usage rate greater than seven percent. I recently broke down in a Keyarris Garrett post how you split deep threats into two categories, simply in terms of their route utility outside of the vertical pattern. Smith certainly fits into the type that is more friendly for the quarterback he gets paired with. The routes Smith runs are easier for a passer to hit, and a receiver to execute.
As such, speed is and always was a big factor in his game, leading to a career average of 17.3 yards per reception. It should be no surprised the nine route was his highest represented pattern at 21.8 percent. The 49ers lacked a speed element in their aerial attack for years, which predicated the signing of Smith.
Elsewhere on the route tree, Smith largely ran simple patterns. The curl, slant and post are the only routes with a usage rate greater than seven percent. I recently broke down in a Keyarris Garrett post how you split deep threats into two categories, simply in terms of their route utility outside of the vertical pattern. Smith certainly fits into the type that is more friendly for the quarterback he gets paired with. The routes Smith runs are easier for a passer to hit, and a receiver to execute.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
In case you weren’t sure, Torrey Smith is still one of the best deep threats in the NFL. His 61.7 Success Rate Vs. Coverage score was well above the NFL average. He accumulated just 29.1 PTS on that pattern in 2015, all of which came on just two long touchdown receptions. By simply how many more passes he’s set to see in 2016, that number is bound to go up. The fact that he's still one of the top scorers on nine routes among receivers charted for Reception Perception just adds another layer of certainty.
The other important score is Smith’s quite strong 82.8 percent SRVC on slant routes. His speed also comes into play when scorching defenders on those crossing patterns. DeSean Jackson made big plays again and again running those routes in Chip Kelly’s offense during their 2013 season together. Smith should produce nicely for Kelly on slant patterns, which he also runs with good technique. Smith long went undersold for being a better route-runner than given credit for in Baltimore. He knows how to sell the cornerback on the idea he’s going deep before cutting inside with discipled eye use.
Smith’s solid deceptive route running also shows up in his SRVC scores on comebacks and digs. He presents a reliable target for his quarterback on those patterns while the cornerback gets fooled into overplaying the deep ball. You could see several times throughout this season that despite the lack of production, teams still feared Smith’s deep game.
Torrey Smith is still certainly a strong starting NFL receiver despite a 33-catch season in 2015. While not the prototype primary option or checking all the boxes of a No. 1 NFL receiver, he can fill that role in Chip Kelly’s offense.
The other important score is Smith’s quite strong 82.8 percent SRVC on slant routes. His speed also comes into play when scorching defenders on those crossing patterns. DeSean Jackson made big plays again and again running those routes in Chip Kelly’s offense during their 2013 season together. Smith should produce nicely for Kelly on slant patterns, which he also runs with good technique. Smith long went undersold for being a better route-runner than given credit for in Baltimore. He knows how to sell the cornerback on the idea he’s going deep before cutting inside with discipled eye use.
Smith’s solid deceptive route running also shows up in his SRVC scores on comebacks and digs. He presents a reliable target for his quarterback on those patterns while the cornerback gets fooled into overplaying the deep ball. You could see several times throughout this season that despite the lack of production, teams still feared Smith’s deep game.
Torrey Smith is still certainly a strong starting NFL receiver despite a 33-catch season in 2015. While not the prototype primary option or checking all the boxes of a No. 1 NFL receiver, he can fill that role in Chip Kelly’s offense.
This is why Reception Perception is such a useful tool. Just as Michael Crabtree’s SRVC scores in 2014 revealed he was not the blame for his deteriorating production, Smith’s 2015 marks show the same.
Smith scores above the league average in terms of defeating man and zone coverage. A 65.3 percent SRVC score against man paints the picture of a player still performing at an NFL starter level, but held back by a lack of opportunity in a disastrous offense. His 76.6 percent SRVC against zone reminds us this is a difficult player to blot-out with traditional coverage schemes.
The only area where Smith fell below the league average was his SRVC against press. Getting off jams, and playing with power and consistent technique at the line of scrimmage is still a weaker point in his game. That deficiency is one of the reasons Smith never rolled consistent production together even in his strong years in Baltimore. When a corner lays an effective jam on him, Smith will struggle to work free from the man coverage to follow in the route.
However, Kelly should find ways to work in some free releases for Smith, and his 60.9 percent SRVC was not so poor to make it a damning point in his evaluation. When you consider his strong SRVC scores elsewhere, the positives indicators are still greater than the negatives.
The changing variables presented by the arrival of Chip Kelly and his voluminous offense, and an overall favorable Reception Perception evaluation point to a bounce back on the horizon for Torrey Smith. Still a quality player with every chance to see more work, this one certainly checks what a savvy gem-digger looks for in projecting such occurrences.
Really the only question is whether the 49ers’ quarterbacks cooperate in the endeavor. Jason LaCanfora recently reported that Chip Kelly is “enamored with trying to resurrect Blaine Gabbert's career.” That quote can justifiably be accompanied with some snickering. Yet, Gabbert strung some useful games together for the team last year, finishing with the best passer rating of his career among seasons where he threw more than 200 passes.
Gabbert might at least be as functional as Mark Sanchez was for Chip Kelly during Maclin’s breakout 2014 year. Oh and here is your obligatory reminder Kelly once coaxed a dominant statistical season out of Nick Foles. Yes, he’s the same Nick Foles who just managed to average under 200 passing yards per game in the year of our Lord 2015; the heart of the passing game driven era of the NFL.
Colin Kaepnerick was notoriously exposed as a wide receiver killer in the Crabtree evaluation, and Smith became another victim in 2015. However, that LaCanfora report coupled with the fact he’s been on the trading block for months, it feels quite unlikely he’ll be a major factor behind center for San Francisco.
Even if the quarterback play is average to sub-par, the increase in play volume and available targets is enough to offset those concerns. Through it all, at the heart of the matter is that Torrey Smith is still a fine wide receiver in the NFL, who is fiercely underrated in the fantasy landscape at present time.
Carrying an early MFL10 ADP of WR57 and a dynasty stock of WR76, per RotoViz, the opportunity to pounce on buying Torrey Smith is as ripe as ever. Still only 27 years old and with Reception Perception’s stamp of approval, there’s almost no way he does not best expectations set by those shockingly low ADPs.
The variables changed this offseason for Torrey Smith. Those alterations and the production soon to follow will allow us to level back from what his ADPs show is clearly an over-reactionary stance on this player.
Smith scores above the league average in terms of defeating man and zone coverage. A 65.3 percent SRVC score against man paints the picture of a player still performing at an NFL starter level, but held back by a lack of opportunity in a disastrous offense. His 76.6 percent SRVC against zone reminds us this is a difficult player to blot-out with traditional coverage schemes.
The only area where Smith fell below the league average was his SRVC against press. Getting off jams, and playing with power and consistent technique at the line of scrimmage is still a weaker point in his game. That deficiency is one of the reasons Smith never rolled consistent production together even in his strong years in Baltimore. When a corner lays an effective jam on him, Smith will struggle to work free from the man coverage to follow in the route.
However, Kelly should find ways to work in some free releases for Smith, and his 60.9 percent SRVC was not so poor to make it a damning point in his evaluation. When you consider his strong SRVC scores elsewhere, the positives indicators are still greater than the negatives.
The changing variables presented by the arrival of Chip Kelly and his voluminous offense, and an overall favorable Reception Perception evaluation point to a bounce back on the horizon for Torrey Smith. Still a quality player with every chance to see more work, this one certainly checks what a savvy gem-digger looks for in projecting such occurrences.
Really the only question is whether the 49ers’ quarterbacks cooperate in the endeavor. Jason LaCanfora recently reported that Chip Kelly is “enamored with trying to resurrect Blaine Gabbert's career.” That quote can justifiably be accompanied with some snickering. Yet, Gabbert strung some useful games together for the team last year, finishing with the best passer rating of his career among seasons where he threw more than 200 passes.
Gabbert might at least be as functional as Mark Sanchez was for Chip Kelly during Maclin’s breakout 2014 year. Oh and here is your obligatory reminder Kelly once coaxed a dominant statistical season out of Nick Foles. Yes, he’s the same Nick Foles who just managed to average under 200 passing yards per game in the year of our Lord 2015; the heart of the passing game driven era of the NFL.
Colin Kaepnerick was notoriously exposed as a wide receiver killer in the Crabtree evaluation, and Smith became another victim in 2015. However, that LaCanfora report coupled with the fact he’s been on the trading block for months, it feels quite unlikely he’ll be a major factor behind center for San Francisco.
Even if the quarterback play is average to sub-par, the increase in play volume and available targets is enough to offset those concerns. Through it all, at the heart of the matter is that Torrey Smith is still a fine wide receiver in the NFL, who is fiercely underrated in the fantasy landscape at present time.
Carrying an early MFL10 ADP of WR57 and a dynasty stock of WR76, per RotoViz, the opportunity to pounce on buying Torrey Smith is as ripe as ever. Still only 27 years old and with Reception Perception’s stamp of approval, there’s almost no way he does not best expectations set by those shockingly low ADPs.
The variables changed this offseason for Torrey Smith. Those alterations and the production soon to follow will allow us to level back from what his ADPs show is clearly an over-reactionary stance on this player.
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